INTRODUCTION
What You Should Know Before You Invest
How do you identify an emerging market? On the ground, it’s quite easy. The bathrooms smell, you can’t drink the water, and if there’s smoke in an elevator, likely you’re the only one coughing. Those are the signs of opportunity!
As an investor and writer in and about emerging markets I have witnessed staggering growth prospects, some of which were realized as in the case of China, and some that failed to meet the test, especially those countries in Central America. Every “China story” has its start somewhere, and knowing where to look and the signs to look for are as important as knowing how to invest in these up-and-coming markets.
Emerging market investing is not for the faint of heart. But then, neither is investing in any market of late. Most non-emerging market investors tend to look to these opportunities as being fraught with risk. It’s true. Countries that have frequent changes in leadership, high rates of poverty, illiteracy, and sometimes even high rates of crime are hardly the types of markets that engender confidence. Yet, it is precisely these markets that offer the greatest opportunity if they can fulfill their promise of a better future for their populations. Often, this is not the case. Pie in the sky projections by analysts who garner their research from the Internet or popular news media tend to paint a rosier picture than is actually the case. Worse, they sometimes paint a picture that is far more negative than it should be.
In this book I have tried my best to paint a candid picture. The picture I want you to see is one that comes from someone who has been on the ground, met with local officials at the lowest and highest levels, and dealt with frauds and phonies, finance ministers, and soon-to-be-deposed finance ministers. There is nothing conventional about investing in emerging markets, but that does not mean there are not opportunities that arise out of the lack of convention. In fact, it is the lack of a guidebook and the lack of convention that provides opportunity for those who are willing to seek it out. If it were as easy as investing in a sure thing, like China, then there would be far more millionaires on the planet than there are. Yet, even with the obvious growth in places like China, India, Brazil, Chile, and South Africa, investors have yet to cash in en masse. For the most part, they lack tools, a guide, and confidence.
In the following pages I have provided that elusive guidebook to emerging markets, the unvarnished truth so to speak. It’s a viewpoint from someone who set the rose-colored glasses aside almost 20 years ago when he encountered his first taste of Chinese hooch at a steel mill purportedly owned by a private company. As it turns out, this steel mill was anything but legitimate and the owners were engaged in massive fraud, one that is still being perpetrated in many Chinese companies today as any who have been following the business media can attest to. But, for every suspect opportunity there lie 10 more that are legitimate, undercovered, and waiting for that fortunate investor who has taken the time to look, learn, and deploy capital at a very early stage. Cambodia and Vietnam are excellent examples of frontier markets that will likely deliver outsized returns in the years ahead, something I delve into in some depth in the chapters ahead.
Emerging markets share many common characteristics. They usually have poor tax collection systems if any, poor infrastructure for transportation of goods and people, lack of codified securities laws, nonexistent title verification, poor adjudication processes, and sometimes-incomprehensible laws regarding foreign investment. Yet, these are not issues that have dissuaded investors like the late John Templeton or Mark Mobius from making fortunes for themselves and their investors / followers in the past three decades. All of these problems create cheap opportunities and should be viewed in a positive light. If everything ran like it did in the West, then emerging markets would be priced in similar fashion, and the profit motive would disappear for investors. Problems exist, but as they are solved, the result is greater returns for those who know the difference between growing pains and systemic issues. When investing in emerging markets one often has to hold his nose both on the ground and in his portfolio. There will never be that same comfort level of full and accurate disclosure or Western accounting standards or transparency. In fact, it is a hallmark of emerging markets that transparency is less than clear. If these markets were as easy to decipher as those in the West, they would likely not be considered emerging markets anymore.
The opportunity lies in cutting through the bullshit and looking past the smokescreens. That can only be done with an understanding of what makes an emerging market viable for enough time that it can transition into a developed market. Many, like Turkey, are on that cusp. Others, like Thailand, will remain emerging markets forever. Some, like those of the former Soviet Union, may actually regress and become closed or impossible to invest in altogether. What you need to look for is trends. And these are not only market trends, but also political trends, economic trends, trends in taxation, trends in accounting transparency, and finally, trends in spending.
Once you think that you understand how emerging markets work and which ones are likely to succeed or fail, your job is only half complete. The next step is to understand and figure out how to actually invest in and profit from your knowledge. Emerging markets are traders’ markets. They do not follow a “buy and hold” script. By their nature, they are volatile and unpredictable. This unpredictability creates a wealth of opportunity and profits for the prepared investor. The phrase coined by Baron Rothschild in the eighteenth century, “The time to buy is when blood is in the streets,” is one that should be followed religiously when dealing in emerging markets, sometimes literally. Thailand is a great example of a market that should be bought during a military coup . . . the bloodier the better. However, the phrase refers more often today to the opportunities that arise when there is massive uncertainty or panic.
I remember vividly sitting on my bed in the Regent Hotel in Hong Kong when I was there for the ceremony that handed Hong Kong back to the Chinese. It was July 1997. A news flash scrolled across the screen announcing that the Thai baht was collapsing. It was the beginning of the Asian financial crisis, which decimated many Asian markets. Some stocks lost 60 to 70 percent of their value overnight as panicked investors bailed out. Buyers who stepped in to the chaos multiplied their wealth several times over in a matter of months as the crisis subsided and plans were put forth to restabilize and recapitalize the region.
Today, emerging markets are where the growth is, plain and simple. Places like China, South Africa, Brazil, and India are growing at four to five times the rate of developed markets like the United States or Europe. In light of the recent crises that have plunged the West into the throes of recession, emerging markets present an even more compelling opportunity. The Asian financial crisis of 1997 decimated emerging markets worldwide but also forced them to pay attention to credit growth and easy money policies resulting in a more fiscally responsible environment for investors. Population growth, more disposable income, and greater foreign direct investment have created a vibrant atmosphere for growth. The emergence of China as an economic superpower has turbocharged growth prospects for all emerging markets as China has become a significant consumer of raw materials and a major manufacturing subcontractor for its smaller neighbors. Technology-driven demand has augmented growth in many markets by providing easy-to-use instant communications technology, negating the need for heavy spending on a telecommunications infrastructure and improving communications with more remote population centers that are a major source for cheap labor.
Looking forward, you have a choice. Do you continue to keep your money in a low-growth environment where an aging population saps resources and forces increasingly higher tax rates, or do you migrate some of your capital to markets that have decades of growth ahead of them. The answer should be quite simple. And now, with the ability to easily invest across borders, a major barrier to investing offshore in emerging markets has also been lifted. Information flows are freer, more accurate, and more accessible thanks to the Internet. Money flows are also easier thanks to foreign brokers who are eager to facilitate trades. And, foreign governments are loosening up restrictions for foreign investors in a bid to attract more capital to finance growth. The age of the emerging market has only just begun, and this is one ride you can’t afford to miss.