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Part I: Theory and Policy
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Part I: Theory and Policy
by James Liang
The Demographics of Innovation
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Introduction
Part I: Theory and Policy
Chapter 1: Global Demographic Trends
Factors behind Ultra-Low Fertility Rates
World's Population Forecast by Country
Religion, Culture, and Fertility Rates
Out-of-Wedlock Births
Aging Trends
Urbanization
Chapter 2: Demographics and Innovation
Economic Theory of Innovation
Types of Innovation: Adaptive Innovation and Frontier Innovation
Historical Trends of Innovation
Social Changes Driven by Innovation
Innovation Capabilities of Different Countries
How to Promote Innovation?
Other Factors that Can Enhance Innovation
Chapter 3: Demographics and the Economy
Low Fertility and Old-Age Support
Low Fertility and Demographic Dividend/Deficit
Can High Fertility Lower the Per Capita Asset Level?
Can High Fertility Cause Unemployment?
Robots, Unemployment, and Innovation
A Little Bit of Economic Science Fiction
Impact of Aging on Different Industries
Demographics and Inequality
Chapter 4: Resource and Environment
Natural Resources and Economic Growth
Clean Energy
World Food Production
Will Water Become Scarce?
Demographics and the Environment
Planning for a Mega City Comprised of 30 Million People
Chapter 5: Public Policy
Recent Pro-fertility Policies in Developed Countries
Reversal of Fertility Policy in Asia
Analysis of Pro-fertility Policy
Building a Pro-fertility Culture
Marriage Ratio and Out-of-Wedlock Births
The Future of Pro-fertility Policies
Immigration
Internal Migration
The War for Talent
Competition among Countries: Large Countries vs. Small Countries
A Tale of Ctrip.com: An Analogy between Company Size and Country Size
Policy Pitfall of a Large Country
Policy Strategies of Small Countries
Language Barrier and the English Advantage
Trade vs. Immigration
Brexit and Donald Trump's Presidency
Education Reform
Part II: The Race of Innovation
Chapter 6: Japan
The Aging of the Japanese Economy
The Lost Decades
The Aging of Japanese Firms
The Aging of Japanese Society
Chapter 7: China
Will the Twenty-First Century be the Century of China?
Risk of Transiting from Manufacturing to Service
Risk of a Widening Income Gap
Risk of Political Reform
Environmental and Natural Resource Risk
The Demographic Advantage of China
The Aging of the Chinese Economy
The Great Demographic Transition of China
Drastic Demographic Change as a Result of the One-Child Policy
Gender Imbalance
The End of the One-Child Policy
Forecasting China's Fertility Rate
China to Adopt Pro-fertility Policy
Deterioration of Demographics
The Impact of Demographic Change on the Chinese Economy and Innovation
Policy Suggestions
Conclusion
Chapter 8: The United States of America
A History of Innovation in the United States
Does the United States have an Inherent Advantage in Innovation?
Is Inequality a Problem?
China vs. the United States
Policy Recommendations
Predicting the Effects of Donald Trump's Presidency
The Thucydides Trap: A Conflict between China and the United States
Chapter 9: Europe
The Historical Innovation Champion
Is it Too Early to Write Off Germany?
Is the United Kingdom Different?
Is Russia a Part of Europe?
The Prospect of Innovation in Europe
Fertility and Aging
What is Causing the Difference in Fertility Rates?
Immigration
But What About the Skill Level of Immigrants?
Muslim Immigration
Brexit and the Future of the European Union
Policy Recommendations
Other Developed Countries
Conclusion
Chapter 10: India
History of India
Is India's Growth Sustainable?
The Scale Advantage
India's Infrastructure Problem
Export and Balance of Trade
Political System
Poverty and Inequality
Brain Drain or Brain Gain?
Natural Resources
The Environment
Future Economic Outlook
Other Developing Countries
Conclusion
Epilogue: Historical Competition Among Civilizations: An Essay on Transportation Technology, Demographics and the Race of Innovation
References
Index
End User License Agreement
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Introduction
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Chapter 1: Global Demographic Trends
Part I
Theory and Policy
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