Chapter 17
IN THIS CHAPTER
Setting yourself up to live the good life
Making decisions about your retirement accounts
Withdrawing required minimums
Considering taxes
Managing your risk
Living your retirement life
Living out your retirement years is supposed to be easy, but it isn’t. It takes careful planning even with good professional help. It occurred to me as I was writing this book that for me it has been similar to running a business. Running a successful business requires having a budget each year. A good business plan includes expected expenses and income for each month of the year. You track both during the year and make adjustments as needed to keep things on track. I do that with my personal planning. I keep monthly tabs to confirm that things are on track. My planning includes the likely sources of income during my 70s and soon-to-be 80s. My gene pool and current health are good; therefore, I may have to keep at this beyond my 80s.
This chapter helps you decide what to do with the money in your retirement accounts when you retire from your job, and how to manage it to give you comfort and peace of mind (and maybe even have a little something left over for your heirs).
Did you ever stop to think how much money you’ll need in retirement to keep up your current lifestyle? You need to have realistic goals and prepare to be flexible.
The trick is to try to estimate how big a retirement account you’ll need and develop a savings plan to try to accumulate that amount. When you retire, you’ll have to manage your nest egg so that you don’t run out of money before you die. Chapter 11 explains why and how to set up a savings plan to accumulate ten times the amount you’re earning when you retire.
When you retire, your investment job isn’t over. In some ways, the job’s just beginning. You have to convert your account balance (your nest egg) into a healthy income stream that will last the rest of your life. This means that you not only have to decide how to invest your money, but you also have to decide how and when to spend it. Making a bad investment decision or two when you’re young is pretty normal and doesn’t have to be a tragedy. Chapter 14 shows how losing all your money in one investment and earning nothing on another investment isn’t a serious problem if you also have investments that perform well — proving the benefits of diversification.
It’s great if you can invest the money in a way that would let you live off the investment income without touching the principal (the amount in your nest egg before withdrawing any money), but for most people this isn’t possible. You have to spend the principal, as well. Spending your account’s principal is often referred to as drawing down your account. The trick is spending just enough to make things comfortable but not using everything up before you go to the great beyond.
Note: All the recommendations I provide in this chapter are directed toward individuals, not couples. That’s because both you and your spouse need to do your own retirement planning — unless you operate on a combined income. If you and your spouse have joint accounts and a “what’s yours is mine” attitude, a combined plan is fine. But remember that, unless you have other resources, both incomes need to be replaced to maintain your lifestyle.
One of your first decisions as a retiree is what to do with the money in your 401(k). You essentially have two choices with your 401(k):
Well, okay, the choices are a bit more complicated than that. On the first point, you can leave it in the plan if your vested balance is more than $5,000 and you haven’t reached the plan’s normal retirement age, usually 65. Leaving your money in your former employer’s plan is probably fine if you like the 401(k) plan investments and if you’re not going to need the money soon. However, remember that the employer can change the plan investments at any time, and you have to go along with it. Also, most plans won’t let you take installment payments, so if you need to withdraw some money from the plan, it’ll probably be all or nothing.
That brings me to the second option — taking it out of the plan. When you take money out of a 401(k), you have to act carefully to keep taxes and penalties in check. The untaxed amount you take out has to be added on top of your other taxable income for that year.
If your plan lets you take installment payments, you can arrange to take out what you need and pay income tax only on that amount each year. (This works until you hit age 72, when you must start taking a required minimum distribution each year.) I explain these distributions (RMDs) in the section “Paying Uncle Sam His Due: Required Withdrawals” later in the chapter.
However, most 401(k) plans have an all-or-nothing policy — either leave it in the plan or withdraw a lump sum (the entire amount). With all-or-nothing plans, the best solution is generally to transfer the money into an IRA to preserve the tax advantage and withdraw money periodically from the IRA as you need it. Again, you pay income tax only on the amounts that you withdraw, which works out to be less than paying tax on the entire amount all at once.
You may also transfer Roth contributions and the earnings on them into a Roth IRA so this portion of your account will continue to grow without being taxed. You can also convert some or all of your untaxed 401(k) account into a Roth IRA. See Chapter 10 for more details about such a conversion.
The next sections explore both points.
Your age when you leave your employer is important because it determines whether you have to pay a 10 percent early withdrawal penalty on money you withdraw from the 401(k), in addition to taxes.
If you’re at least 55 years old when you leave your employer, you don’t have to pay the penalty on money withdrawn from that employer’s plan. You still have to pay income tax on the untaxed portion of your account withdrawal, though.
If you’re under 55 years old when you retire, you will owe a 10 percent early withdrawal penalty on any 401(k) money you withdraw, in addition to taxes. (There are a few exceptions called 72(t) withdrawals, which I explain in the following section.) When you reach age 59½, though, you can withdraw your 401(k) money without a penalty, even if you retired from your employer before age 55.
No matter how old you are, you can avoid the early withdrawal penalty tax by rolling over your untaxed 401(k) money into an IRA. Remember, though, that after it’s in the IRA, you’ll generally owe a 10 percent early withdrawal penalty on any money you withdraw before you turn 59½. (The mysterious 72(t) withdrawal exception, which I explain in the following section, applies here, too.)
But what if you need your money before age 55 or age 59½? Here’s where the 72(t) withdrawals (distributions) come into play — you can use them to avoid the early withdrawal penalty. It’s called a Section 72(t) distribution because it comes under that section of the Internal Revenue Code. These distributions are a list of exceptions to the penalty, such as being disabled or having medical expenses exceeding 10 percent of your income (see Chapter 16 for the complete list). However, one of the exceptions, called a SEPP, can be used by anyone. (SEPP stands for substantially equal periodic payments.)
When you use SEPP withdrawals, you set up a schedule of periodic payments that continue for five years or until you’re 59½, whichever is longer. Monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, annual, or some other form of equal payments work provided you withdraw the same amount each year. (You determine the amount using an IRS formula based on your life expectancy. Several approved methods exist. The simplest is the same one used to determine required minimum distributions, described in the section “Paying Uncle Sam His Due: Required Withdrawals.”) You can set up SEPP payments with your 401(k) if your plan allows these periodic payments. If it doesn’t allow them, you can roll your 401(k) balance into an IRA and take the SEPP payments from the IRA.
The three methods for SEPP withdrawals are
Here’s an example of a situation requiring SEPP withdrawals. Say you stop working at age 56 and leave your money in your 401(k). Everything’s fine for two years, and then you decide you need to withdraw some money. You don’t have to worry about the 10 percent early withdrawal penalty because you were at least 55 years old when you left your employer. However, you still have to think about income tax. If you withdraw the entire 401(k) balance, you’ll have a big tax hit. Your employer may allow you to take installment payments from your 401(k) in the amount of your choosing, which would solve your problem. However, if your employer requires you to take a lump-sum withdrawal, what do you do? (If you’ve read the earlier chapters, I expect you to belt out this refrain like a Broadway chorus by now.) That’s right, roll over the 401(k) into an IRA to preserve the tax advantage.
There’s one complication, though. (There’s always something.) If you take a distribution from an IRA before you’re 59½, you have to pay the 10 percent penalty tax. It doesn’t matter that you were over 55 when you left your employer. To get the money out of the IRA without the penalty tax, you need to take a Section 72(t) distribution that must continue for at least five years — until you’re 63, in this example.
An alternative is to take a partial distribution from your 401(k) for just the amount you need right away, and roll over the rest of the money into an IRA. For example, assume that you have $200,000 in your account, and you need to use $35,000 before you turn 59½. You can take $35,000 (plus enough money to cover the tax) from your 401(k) plan and transfer the rest of the money directly to the IRA.
If you don’t need to use any of your 401(k) money for retirement income and your account exceeds $5,000, you can leave the money in your 401(k). Your employer can’t force you to take the money out prior to your plan’s normal retirement age. Participants who are comfortable with the investments they have in their 401(k) and/or who don’t like making decisions are more likely to leave their money in the plan. Those who aren’t thrilled with their 401(k) investments usually can’t wait to get their money out of the plan and into other investments they think are better.
There is no right or wrong decision. Either arrangement is fine if your 401(k) investments are satisfactory. One thing to remember is that money in a 401(k) may have somewhat greater protection from creditors than money in an IRA, depending on your state of residence, should you declare bankruptcy. (IRA protection depends on state law where you live, whereas 401(k) protection is afforded by federal law.)
On the other hand, an IRA offers much greater investment flexibility. An IRA also gives you greater flexibility in naming a beneficiary: You don’t have to get your spouse’s approval before you can name someone else as beneficiary, as you have to with a 401(k).
You may hold some or all your retirement savings in a traditional and/or Roth IRA. You can withdraw money from either type at any time; however, there are tax penalties if you don’t follow the rules that exempt you from a penalty tax. The same rules apply to a traditional IRA as to withdrawing untaxed money from a 401(k), so check “Foiling the Dreaded Early Withdrawal Penalty” earlier in this chapter. Note: My comments in this section are limited to IRA withdrawals to provide retirement income. You can make IRA withdrawals for other reasons without tax penalty.
Withdrawals from a Roth IRA aren’t taxable if your account is at least five years old. Otherwise, withdrawing any of the investment income means you pay a 10 percent penalty tax on the investment income. Amounts you contributed to a Roth IRA are never taxable because you already paid tax on this money.
You can also take Section 72(t) distributions known as substantially equal periodic payments (SEPP) from your IRA accounts without tax penalty. This is a way to access the money in these accounts prior to age 59½ to generate retirement income without paying a penalty tax. You must follow an IRS-approved specific schedule. There are three different methods, which I cover in the section “Foiling the dreaded early withdrawal penalty.” You must stick with the schedule you select for five years or until you reach age 59½, whichever comes later (unless you are disabled or die). A tax penalty will be applied to all payments you have received up to that point if you vary from the schedule.
Never having to pay tax on the investment gains with a Roth IRA is an important issue because you aren’t required to take money out of your Roth IRA during your lifetime. As a result, delaying withdrawals from a Roth IRA is usually a great idea; however, withdrawing some nontaxable money from the Roth IRA and taxable money from a traditional IRA or 401(k) gives you less taxable income.
Careful planning will also be necessary if your total income will be coming from your retirement savings during the early years of retirement because you either aren’t eligible for Social Security (SS) or because you decide to delay taking your SS benefit. Getting help from a good accountant is advisable.
You must begin taking your money out of the 401(k) plan and a traditional IRA by the time you’re 72. If you’re still working for the employer that maintains the 401(k) plan, you don’t have to start withdrawing money until you leave that job. (However, if you own more than 5 percent of the company, the age-72 rule applies, even if you’re still working.) The government wants to collect tax on your money at some point, which is why you can’t leave it in a 401(k) or traditional IRA forever.
Withdrawals from a Roth IRA aren’t required during your lifetime.
For example, if you turn 72 in 2023, you have to take your first RMD by April 1, 2024. But you can take it in 2023 if you like. Why would you take it in 2023? Because you’ll also have to take a distribution by December 31, 2024, for the year 2024. If you put off your 2023 distribution until 2024, you’ll have a higher taxable income that year, all else being equal. You may also have to pay tax on a larger portion of your Social Security benefit if you have more taxable income. See Chapter 2 for more details on taxing your Social Security benefits.
Calculating your RMD isn’t terribly difficult if you have the right information. Be prepared to have the following items at hand:
www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p590b.pdf
. Use Table III if your spouse is less than ten years younger than you, if you’re single, or if you’re married but your spouse isn’t your named beneficiary. Use Table II if your spouse is more than ten years younger than you and is your sole beneficiary. Don’t worry about Table I — it’s for beneficiaries who inherit an IRA.For example, if you reach age 72 during 2021 and are married, and your spouse is 65, use Table III, provided in Table 17-1. On that table, the distribution period for a 72-year-old is 25.6. You divide your account balance by that number, and the result is your required minimum distribution. Say your account balance on December 31, 2021, is $250,000. Your required minimum distribution is $9,765.63 ($250,000 divided by 25.6). That’s how much you have to take out the first year. For the following year, you do a new calculation with your updated account balance and the next distribution period number on the table.
TABLE 17-1 IRS Life Expectancy Table III
Age | Distribution Period | Age | Distribution Period |
---|---|---|---|
70 | 27.4 | 93 | 9.6 |
71 | 26.5 | 94 | 9.1 |
72 | 25.6 | 95 | 8.6 |
73 | 24.7 | 96 | 8.1 |
74 | 23.8 | 97 | 7.6 |
75 | 22.9 | 98 | 7.1 |
76 | 22.0 | 99 | 6.7 |
77 | 21.2 | 100 | 6.3 |
78 | 20.3 | 101 | 5.9 |
79 | 19.5 | 102 | 5.5 |
80 | 18.7 | 103 | 5.2 |
81 | 17.9 | 104 | 4.9 |
82 | 17.1 | 105 | 4.5 |
83 | 16.3 | 106 | 4.2 |
84 | 15.5 | 107 | 3.9 |
85 | 14.8 | 108 | 3.7 |
86 | 14.1 | 109 | 3.4 |
87 | 13.4 | 110 | 3.1 |
88 | 12.7 | 111 | 2.9 |
89 | 12.0 | 112 | 2.6 |
90 | 11.4 | 113 | 2.4 |
91 | 10.8 | 114 | 2.1 |
92 | 10.2 | 115 and over | 1.9 |
Source: www.irs.gov
By the way, the rules for calculating required minimum distributions are the same whether your money is in a 401(k) or a traditional IRA. And you can always take out more than the required minimum with no penalty. However, if you take out less, the IRS will fine you 50 percent of the required amount that you didn’t withdraw.
It would be nice if taxes disappeared when you retired, but unfortunately, they don’t. The earlier sections of this chapter talk about minimizing taxes when you first move your money out of your retirement fund, but you need to look at a few other situations, too, which I put forth in the following sections.
You most likely have some money saved in taxable (nontax-advantaged) accounts like Roth 401(k) contributions or a Roth IRA as well as in your 401(k) or traditional IRA. How do you decide which money to spend first?
Historically, many professional advisors recommended keeping as much money as possible in a tax-deferred account, even during retirement. The rationale was that you would continue to benefit from the fact that no interest, dividends, or gains were taxable while the money was in the account.
But the game changed in 1984 when Congress revised the tax rules regarding Social Security benefits. Although this tax-deferred advantage is still true, you also have to factor in taxation of your Social Security benefits. When you start receiving Social Security, your benefits are taxed if your income is over certain limits. Non-Roth distributions from a 401(k) or traditional IRA are taxable retirement benefits included in the income you must count to determine what portion, if any, of your Social Security benefits are taxable. So, if you take money out of your 401(k) or traditional IRA when you start receiving Social Security benefits, you may have to pay tax on your Social Security benefits.
If you retire a few years before taking Social Security benefits, you may want to use up your tax-deferred accounts first, rather than your other savings, per the following example that assumes you
You can either use your personal savings or withdraw approximately $50,000 from your retirement account during each of these two years. (I am assuming that a $50,000 withdrawal will leave you about $45,000 after paying taxes. If you have other taxable income, your tax rate may be higher.) Withdrawing the money from your 401(k) right away will reduce the size of the taxable distributions you’ll receive after you become eligible for Social Security. It reduces your taxable income after you start to collect Social Security benefits, so perhaps you won’t have to pay as much, or any, tax on your benefits. This may be a better tax deal than the tax break you receive by keeping more money in your retirement account. And you’ll still have your personal savings available, which you’ve already paid taxes on.
You need to consider taxes when you decide what to do with the company stock you may have accumulated in your 401(k) account or other employer-sponsored plan, such as an employee stock ownership plan (ESOP). As I discuss in Chapter 13, you get a special tax break when you receive company stock as a distribution. You pay tax only on the value of the stock when it was credited to your plan account, not on its current value. You pay a capital gains tax on the difference whenever you eventually sell the stock. These capital gains taxes are lower than the income taxes you would otherwise pay. Finally, if you pass the stock to your heirs when you die, they won’t pay tax on any gains that occurred before it was given to them.
This type of estate planning is feasible only if you don’t expect to use the stock during your retirement, and you’re willing to take the risk of having a chunk of money tied to one stock for many years.
If you roll your company stock into an IRA, you can sell it and diversify into other investments. You have to pay income tax on your eventual withdrawals. If you take your distribution of stock, you must pay tax on the value of the stock when you received it in the plan. You can then sell the company stock, paying only capital gains tax on the gain, and use the money to invest in more diversified mutual funds or a portfolio of stocks. However, returns on these “taxable” investments will be subject to income tax every year. Still, the benefits of diversification probably make either one of these strategies more palatable than holding on to the company stock, unless you really aren’t going to need the money during your lifetime.
Investing to build up an adequate retirement nest egg takes most people an entire working career. But, believe it or not, managing your investments is even more critical during your retirement years, because what took many years to build can go “poof” in an instant, like one of those big soap bubbles kids blow. When you’re younger, you can do some really dumb things and still have time to recover. If your investments lose 20 percent or more when you’re 30, it’s a non-event. When you’re 70, it can be a disaster.
As you decide how to manage your nest egg during your retirement years, I can’t emphasize enough the importance of consulting a professional. This is probably the best investment you can make for your retirement. Ask co-workers, friends, or family members for recommendations on financial professionals in your area. A good resource is www.napfa.org
, the website of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors. Chapter 13 includes more detailed information about advisor services.
Maintaining an income stream that will last for the rest of your life is more difficult now than it used to be. A generation or two ago, retirees commonly converted all their available funds into income-producing investments. For most retirees, this meant converting their funds into bank certificates of deposit (CDs). Those who owned stocks typically stuck to the ones that were popular for widows and orphans — in other words, stocks such as utilities that paid high dividends and had a history of steady income with low price fluctuation and modest long-term growth.
Keeping up with inflation wasn’t a big deal when the average retiree lived for only 10 to 12 years after retiring. A 3 percent inflation rate reduced the amount of income a retiree can spend by only 23 percent after 10 years.
Today, if you retire during your 50s or early 60s, you need to plan for at least 30 years of retirement income. Your buying power will be reduced by 58 percent after 30 years of inflation at 3 percent. You’ve probably read that you have to keep some money invested in stocks during your retirement years to help offset the impact of inflation. This advice makes sense because stocks have produced a higher level of return on average than other investments over 20- to 30-year time periods. But you also need to know how much stock, and which types of stock, to own.
Retirees who were following traditional investment advice during 2008 incurred losses in the 30 percent range. Such a loss shortly after you retire is a horrible way to start your retirement years. More aggressive retiree investors incurred even larger losses.
A $100,000 account that drops to $70,000 due to a 30 percent loss must increase by 43 percent to get back to $100,000. Assume you need to withdraw $4,000 per year from your retirement accounts — the 4 percent generally recommended by investment professionals. You assumed your $100,000 would grow by 6 percent each year. If both happened during the first year of your retirement, you would have roughly $102,000 in your account at the end of the first year. If, instead of a 6 percent gain, you experience a 30 percent loss, your account becomes worth approximately $66,000 after the first year rather than $102,000 — a 55 percent gap from which you most likely will never recover.
It’s important to have a plan in place and reserves at the ready in case there is a drop in the market. Read on to find out how to manage your investments when things don’t go quite according to plan.
After all the years you worked hard to reach your retirement goal, you probably want, and deserve, a break that’s free of investment stress. I wish I could tell you how this sort of break is possible, but I can’t, because it’s not. At this point, you need to withdraw money from your account to live. The combination of a low or negative return for a couple of years and regular withdrawals can really disrupt your carefully laid plans.
One way to avoid having to sell stocks when they’re down is to invest about 20 percent of your nest egg in low-risk, fixed-income investments, such as a money market fund or short-term bond fund. Hold these investments in your regular IRA or in a separate IRA. Use this money as a special cash reserve fund during down periods. You can tap this fund rather than be forced to sell stocks and bonds when their value is down.
Imagine you have a retirement nest egg worth $250,000. You withdraw 4 percent, or $10,000, for living expenses the first year. The next year you withdraw $10,300 to keep up with 3 percent inflation. Now say the value of your investments drops 10 percent the first year and another 4 percent the second year. Finally, assume that you based your plan on a 6 percent return during your retirement years.
A 6 percent return may have looked like a sure thing when you retired, but instead the market drops by 14.6 percent during the first year and gains 10.8 percent the second year as it did in 2008 and 2009. Table 17-2 shows returns for a mutual fund with a 47/53 stock/bond mix that was considered appropriate for a retiree early in the 21st century. Table 17-2 shows the fluctuations in value of a $250,000 nest egg in these circumstances, compared to your original investment plan, which assumes 6 percent gains per year.
TABLE 17-2 How Actual Results Can Differ From Your Plan
Beginning Amount $250,000 | Beginning Amount $250,000 | |
Your Plan | Actual Results | |
Withdrawal Year 1 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
Withdrawal Year 2 | $10,300 | $10,300 |
Investment gain (or loss) Year 1 | $14,700 | ($35,770) |
Investment gain (or loss) Year 2 | $14,973 | $26,507 |
Ending balance Year 1 | $254,700 | $204,230 |
Ending balance Year 2 | $259,373 | $215,431 |
The actual results were a 14.6 percent loss during 2008 and a 10.8 percent gain during 2009. If your plan is based on a 6 percent average annual return, this example shows how badly your plan can be disrupted if the year you retire is when the market crashes.
Although no one can predict when the market will go up and down, you do need a predictable stream of income during your retirement years. But withdrawing money when the value of your investments is declining can be gut-wrenching.
Buying a fixed-income annuity is an option to consider if you have less than a few million in assets to provide the retirement income you need.
The amount you pay to buy a fixed-income annuity depends on your current age, the age when you want the monthly income to begin, and the monthly annuity amount. It costs a lot to buy $1,000 of monthly annuity income when you are age 67 with immediate monthly payments because the insurance company must pay you for the rest of your life — potentially 20 to 30 years.
You can choose from many annuity options:
A life-income annuity is the reverse of life insurance. With life insurance, you pay premiums each year for a benefit paid to your beneficiaries when you die. This benefit is meant to help replace your lost income. With an annuity you receive monthly benefits for as long as you live. The annuity protects you from living too long. The monthly payments end when you die unless you select one that guarantees an income to a spouse or someone else after you die. You receive the largest monthly benefit if payments end when you die.
Your health and gene pool are factors to consider before buying a fixed income annuity. You need to judge how likely you are to live into your 80s or 90s based on your health and genes.
A lot more needs to be considered about this type of annuity than I can cover in this book. I think “Stan the Annuity Man” has the best information available. Go to www.stantheannuityman.com
and order his free books to get access to a lot of good information even if you never buy an annuity from Stan.
The amount of annuity income you get varies a bit by state due to state taxes. Annuity rates also change frequently for a variety of reasons, with changes in interest rates the biggest factor. You can buy a larger annuity income when interest rates are higher because insurance companies factor their expected return into their pricing. Interest rates are low today making it less attractive to buy an annuity. Delaying your annuity purchase is an option to consider if you expect interest rates to go up in the near future.
Take a look at some examples of how annuities work in different situations:
The monthly payment for the above annuity payment options drops to $831.51, $637.26, and $747.79 when a feature is included that will increase the payments by 3 percent each year to help offset the impact of inflation.
Note: In all these examples, I assume the annuity purchase is made using a traditional IRA; therefore, the full annuity payment is taxable.
Many 401(k) and IRA savers have multiple accounts, often including one or more in former employer 401(k) plans. If this is you, you probably won’t be able to tell me how these accounts are invested. At best, you may be able to name the investment organization where the money is invested.
Having multiple retirement accounts makes it much more difficult to manage your investments and to plan for retirement. You must decide how to structure your withdrawals when you retire to provide the income you need and to satisfy the minimum withdrawal requirements. Having multiple accounts with different financial organizations makes this much more difficult.
The larger and better financial organizations provide investment and other help when you have an account with them. They usually help you transfer money from a 401(k) or IRA without any additional fee, or you can pay an additional fee to get more extensive help. Such assistance is more effective when you have all or most of your retirement account assets with one organization.
I personally had to deal with this during my early 60s. I was avoiding combining my retirement accounts because I knew it would be a time-consuming and frustrating process. One day I decided to endure the necessary pain to make it happen. It was about as painful as I expected, but it was worth the effort. Having all my retirement accounts at one financial organization made it much easier to make investment decisions and to plan withdrawals.
You can also hire an independent firm to take total control of the transfer process. Retirement Clearinghouse is one I prefer because I know their management team. Their fee to manage the transfer of a single account is $79.00. The fee drops to $49 for the next transaction and is free after that. Retirement Clearing House works directly with the financial institution, making the transfer as stress-free and pleasant as possible. They also don’t get paid until the transfer has been completed. Their website is www.rch1.com
, and the phone number is 888-600-7655.
Some people think that they’ll never run out of money if the amount they withdraw from their retirement account each year never exceeds their investment return. But how can you do this in years when your return is low or negative? Would you be able to live on 1 percent of your account? (Even with an account of $500,000, that’s $5,000 for the entire year.)
Achieving an investment return such as 6 percent is not a given every year. Stock returns can be almost nonexistent even during extended periods. Living through one of these longer-term market funks when you’re building your nest egg isn’t easy — but it’s much more painful when you’re retired and watching your account shrink. In addition to good planning, a favorable economy during most of your retirement years will certainly help — but of course, you can’t control that.
The recent pandemic is a reminder that we have limited control. The fact that the stock market has performed well after the significant COVID-19–triggered 2020 drop isn’t a source of comfort to me because it has been driven by federal fiscal policies that aren’t sustainable. As a result, I am not comfortable suggesting that readers approaching retirement or already retired follow traditional investment advice to invest 40 percent in stocks and 60 percent in bonds. Such a mix will leave you exposed to a 20 to 30 percent drop in your account value when the next market drop hits.
I hate to give specific recommendations because they can really be wrong in the short run; however, I recommend considering moving 50 percent of your holdings into cash because a major meltdown can occur soon based on historical records. You won’t earn anything currently, but you shouldn’t lose anything on the cash portion unless there is a total economic collapse. If that happens, who knows what will be safe? Such a move should cut your losses in half when the next major and prolonged downturn occurs. You will have the opportunity to invest all or a portion of this money in stocks and bonds after the market drops substantially.
Investors at or after retirement age need to be more concerned about protecting the retirement savings they have rather than pursuing higher investment returns. Buying a fixed income annuity and/or holding a larger than normal portion of your invested assets in cash will provide a greater level of protection. The return on cash investments is crappy currently, but the reduced investment risk may be worth it.
Model plans for retirees generally recommend withdrawing only 4 percent per year from their accounts, increasing the withdrawal by 3 percent annually for inflation, and assuming a 6 percent investment return. I agree with such a model except I recommend reducing your expected investment return from 6 percent to 4 percent. Doing so will enable you to invest more conservatively and reduce the likelihood of a 20 to 30 percent drop.
Table 17-3 shows how this strategy would have worked for someone who retired during 2008, the year of the last market crash. At the end of 2021, $209,345 of the original $250,000 is left. The account will run dry during 2036 when the payout will have increased to $22,865 and the owner is 94, assuming the owner was 65 in 2008.
TABLE 17-3 Planned Withdrawal Strategy
Year | Beginning Balance | Annual Payout | Investment Return | Year-End Balance |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | $250,000 | $10,000 | $9,800 | $249,800 |
2009 | $249,800 | $10,300 | $9,786 | $249,286 |
2010 | $249,286 | $10,690 | $9,758 | $248,354 |
2011 | $248,354 | $10,927 | $9,716 | $247,143 |
2012 | $247,143 | $11,255 | $9,661 | $245,549 |
2013 | $245,549 | $11,593 | $9,590 | $243,546 |
2014 | $243,546 | $11,941 | $9,503 | $241,108 |
2015 | $241,108 | $12,299 | $9,398 | $238,207 |
2016 | $238,207 | $12,668 | $9,275 | $234,814 |
2017 | $234,814 | $13,048 | $9,132 | $230,898 |
2018 | $230,898 | $13,439 | $8,967 | $226,426 |
2019 | $226,426 | $13,842 | $8,780 | $221,364 |
2020 | $221,364 | $14,248 | $8,570 | $215,686 |
Table 17-4 shows the actual results rather than a model assuming you retired at the end of 2007 and invested all your retirement savings into a 2010 target date fund. This would have given you the asset mix considered appropriate for a retiree.
TABLE 17-4 Actual Results for a Target Date Fund
Year | Beginning Balance | Annual Payout | Return Percentage | Gain or Loss | Ending Balance |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | $250,000 | $10,000 | –14.6 | –$35,770 | $204,230 |
2009 | $204,230 | $10,300 | 10.8 | $21,501 | $215,431 |
2010 | $215,431 | $10,927 | 5.8 | $12,178 | $216,682 |
2011 | $216,682 | $11,255 | 2 | $4,221 | $209,648 |
2012 | $209,648 | $11,593 | 5.3 | $10,804 | $208,859 |
2013 | $208,859 | $11,941 | 2 | $4,058 | $200,976 |
2014 | $200,976 | $12,299 | 3.5 | $6,819 | $195,496 |
2015 | $195,496 | $12,668 | –3.7 | –$6,999 | $175,802 |
2016 | $175,802 | $13,048 | 3.2 | $6,524 | $169,278 |
2017 | $169,278 | $13,439 | 5.6 | $9,103 | $164,942 |
2018 | $164,942 | $13,842 | –6.1 | –$9,650 | $141,450 |
2019 | $141,450 | $14,258 | 10.2 | $13,701 | $140,893 |
2020 | $140,893 | $14,686 | 5.8 | $7,746 | $133,953 |
If I were searching for a fund to invest in today, this fund would be attractive if I looked only at the average investment returns posted for this fund because the one-year return is 17.02, the five-year average return is 6.38, and the ten-year average return is 5.66 percent. Investing in this fund appears to be a great option if I want to achieve a 4 percent average annual return. But the results show I would have had only $133,953 left at the end of 2020. I needed $215,686 at the end of 2020 to be on track with my 4 percent average annual investment return plan. Very scary and much worse for someone who is attempting to get a 6 percent or higher average annual return. These average annual return results show why they aren’t helpful when you’re deciding how to manage your investments. You need to dig deeper by checking how the funds you are considering performed during the 2008 market crash.
When you consider financial resources to fund your retirement, you may also wonder whether to convert your home into an income-producing asset. In some cases, this makes sense, but many people are emotionally attached to their family home and don’t want to sell it. You may have to try to take a less emotional look, however, because you may need the equity from your home to achieve a comfortable level of retirement income.
It may be smart to sell your home and use the proceeds to generate income, and then find a place to rent. Why rent if you own a home without a mortgage? Consider that a home is indeed an asset, but it doesn’t produce money — it eats it up. It costs a lot of money to live in your home even if you don’t have a mortgage. If you own a $300,000 home, your annual costs to maintain it are likely to be pricey:
All told, you probably spend at least $12,000 per year for the privilege of owning your $300,000 home — even with the mortgage fully paid. This additional expense is okay if you have adequate retirement income but is less than okay if your retirement resources are limited. The situation is much worse if you still have mortgage payments.
You can probably find a nice place to rent for $1,500 per month in the same area as your $300,000 home. The rental will cost you $18,000 per year compared to the $12,000 it may cost to live in your present home. You’re paying a bit more for the rental, but you don’t have the hassle of home ownership. Most importantly, you can reinvest the money from the sale of your home and make up the difference. Investing $300,000 at a 4 percent return gives you an additional $12,000 annually, and you have the $300,000 available as needed.
A reverse mortgage or home equity loan are other ways to tap into your home’s value if you really want to stay where you are and in the house you own. Equity is the difference between what your home is valued at and the amount you owe on it.
Up-front costs for a reverse mortgage are in the $10,000 to $15,000 range. All you get for those fees are the right to draw against your home equity as needed and no repayment schedule. No repayments are due during your lifetime, and you and your spouse can live in the house for the rest of your lives regardless of how long you live. You must keep up with taxes and maintain the home.
I recommend delaying applying for a reverse mortgage until you need to tap into your home equity; however, apply a year or more before you reach this point because the process takes a while.
Obtaining a home equity line of credit is another option to consider rather than selling your home. Do this while you’re still working because a bank must approve your request based on your ability to repay the loan. Your income while still working should enable you to get the loan approved.