2

Energy

Introduction

Energy can be classified as non-renewable or renewable in terms of source, and primary or secondary in terms of process. For instance, heat and electricity are derived from the combustion process of primary and secondary materials, which in turn may come from non-renewable or renewable sources. Both are gifts of nature: the former is a one-time gift, the latter depends upon whether the sun shines, the wind blows or waves dance in their diurnal motion.

Historically, mankind relied on renewable sources for cooking, heating and lighting. Extensive use of non-renewable sources dates from about the mid-nineteenth century and was largely responsible for driving the Industrial Revolution and urbanization. The convergence of technologies of internal combustion engine, oil extraction, electricity generation and mass production of appliances made many things possible that earlier could not even be imagined. Since energy was available, work could be performed by machines. Machines replaced muscle power, productivity soared and, thus, the affluent society was born. Slowly, affluence came to be perceived in terms of the number of cars people owned, the miles they drove, the places they flew to, the gadgets they owned, and the hundreds of miles their food travelled before landing on their plate. Cheap energy could move things farther and faster. Those who lived on low or no non-renewable energy, by default, came to be classified as poor or non-affluent.

Slowly a myth, that technology frees humanity from drudgery, was institutionalized into economic theory and political philosophy without realizing that these technologies functioned because of cheap energy. The media brainwashed the world that technology was the final god and nature could be conquered. The fortunate few rejoiced in consensus trance; a majority accepted their fate that life must somehow go on, on the periphery of modern civilization.

Today well-aware oil geologists, energy experts and a small group of informed researchers know that this one-time gift of nature is in terminal decline.¹ The renewable sources of energy are yet to be scaled up, but these cannot replace oil in terms of quality, quantity, ease of handling and storage. We are on the threshold of a momentous event of our lifetime that was neither faced by any previous generation nor will be replicated in the future. People need to know that cheap energy will not be available and governments must respond to this challenge now.²

Peaking of Non-renewable Sources

Non-renewable energy sources are oil, gas, coal, and fissile materials. Peak refers to a situation when 50 per cent of proven reserve has been consumed. An American oil geologist, Marion King Hubbert, predicted that oil production from a given well follows a bell-shaped curve. When it reaches the mid-point, i.e., the top of the bell-shaped curve, decline starts. Hubbert predicted that the US oil wells will peak around 1970; since 1972, the US oil production has been on decline. Since reserves and production are known, peaking can be estimated for oil, gas and coal. According to industry experts, world oil peaked in 2004–05, major non-OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil wells of conventional light crude are on decline, and from 2007 OPEC will be the dominant supplier. This is not interpretation, but a geological fact.³

South Asia has about 5.987 giga barrel (Gb) of reserves and the consumption rate is about 1.082 Gb per year. Industry experts believe that Indian reserves peaked in 2004 and that of Pakistan in 1992, (see Table 2.1) implying major South Asian oil fields are already on decline. Two further points to note are (a) the estimates of reserve are merely indicative of extractable oil and, (b) since the reserve has crossed the mid-point, the cost of extraction will go up because more energy will be used up to extract every barrel of oil. Therefore, for all practical purposes, South Asia is now almost totally dependent on imported oil.

With global supplies dwindling, how long can we depend upon imports? The world peak might stay flat for two to three years up to 2010; then the decline in production will start. Some wells decline sharply, others slowly.

Analysts in 1999 had predicted a 2 per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead with a 3 per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves and that by 2010, the world would need an additional 50 million barrels a day. Since the additional cheap oil cannot be found the ‘severity and imminence’ of global oil shortage is a reality. There is a strong circumstantial evidence that the Afghanistan and Iraq wars are actually the beginning of a long energy war, with the USA trying to monopolize key oil resources.^{4, 5} In this geopolitical game, there is also an insidious attempt to blame South Asia for suspended particulate matter (SPM) and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions because we burn biomass to meet our energy needs.

 

Table 2.1 South Asian Oil^∗

 

Governments have known about the impending energy crisis but its true consequence has never been publicly discussed. The media has also done an abysmal job by not informing the people about the looming crisis. Today, people are utterly unprepared to cope with the oil crisis that will cause food shortages, economic collapse and social disorders (see Box 2.2).

 

Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary; this one will be like a tsunami. Without timely mitigation shortages accompanied by sharp price increases would create a long period of terrible hardship. It would take 10 to 20 years for alternatives to be in place. Therefore, the challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate attention.

Pressure

Since South Asian economies are growing, the demand for commercial energy for industrial, domestic and commercial use is also growing. Economic growth, along with population growth, has resulted in a rate of increase in energy consumption that is well above the world average. Thus, South Asia faces the triple challenge of meeting rapidly the growing energy demand, conserving energy resources and reducing CO₂ and GHG emission. Two points worth noting are that (a) total primary energy consumption in South Asia is still far below the world average and, (b) against the world average of 72.8 per cent population with electricity, the region has 44.5 per cent.^{6, 7}

Data on sources of energy and actual consumption by different sectors is deficient. Even if demand is projected accurately, estimates of supply are prone to large margin of error and, consequently, true level of pressure cannot be accurately assessed.

Direct Pressures

Industry    The economy of South Asia is rapidly industrializing. In 2004, industry accounted for 18 per cent oil, 42.9 per cent of gas and was the largest consumer of coal. During the 1950s, while the Indian economy grew at 2 to 3.5 per cent per annum, it was largely because agriculture accounted for 55 per cent of GDP. Now agriculture accounts for only 20 per cent, so the slow growth of agriculture has far less impact on GDP. Similar is the case with Pakistan and Bangladesh. The share of service sector is also increasing. Consequently, energy demand growth due to cumulative impact of industrial and service sector growth is one of the fastest in the world (see Tables 2.2 to 2.5).

 

Table 2.2 Oil: Sector-wise Final Consumption^∗

 

Table 2.3 Natural Gas: Sector-wise Final Consumption^∗

 

It can be seen from Table 2.2 that demand for oil comes mainly from industry, transport and residential sectors. Table 2.3 shows that demand for gas comes mainly for industry and residential sectors. Both of non-energy use is accounted for by chemical fertilizer production.

Agriculture, Food Processing and Retailing    Despite successful examples of low-energy farming methods, farmers continue to work with energy-intensive methods. The use of fertilizers, pesticides and pump sets for irrigation is possible only because of cheap oil (see Chapter 4) and this use is increasing. Adding to the pressure is the government policy of promoting the food-processing industry, which is energy intensive at each stage of value chain (for example, storage of raw stock, processing, storage of finished products and transportation). This is being done despite the fact that processed foods are poor in nutritive value. Thus, for transporting each unit of nutrition and food energy, South Asia would be expending more fossil-fuel energy.

Food retailing business is also being centralized. Traditionally, all South Asian nations have had decentralized, low-energy and low-capital-input food retailing. In India, this tradition has created 8 per cent of total employment that is now being Walmartized. The Walmartization process will cost rural jobs and unnecessary dependence on commercial energy. These policies may even prevent access to food when oil becomes scarce.

 

Table 2.4 Coal: Sector-wise Final Consumption

Urbanization   Urban areas, by their very nature, are intensive users of energy for lighting, heating/cooling, transportation, and access to basic services and food. Since the region will witness rapid urbanization, the energy demand will grow, further compounded by poor energy management.

Residential Energy Consumption   Twenty-five per cent of electricity, 22 per cent of oil, and 16.7 per cent of gas demand came from residential sector (see Tables 2.2 to 2.5). The increase in domestic energy consumption is coming from (a) wider ownership of gadgets (cars, refrigerators, appliances, heating and cooling equipment and lighting) and, (b) population increase. The policy of 100 per cent electrification has raised expectations that now need to be satisfied. A majority of rural masses meet their energy needs from biomass, which places immense pressure on forests.

 

Table 2.5 Electricity: Sector-wise Final Consumption

 

Road-Sector Energy Consumption    Road-sector energy consumption increased by 48 per cent from 1990 to 2003. Maximum growth rate came from India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (see Table 2.6). The sector excludes military consumption, motor gasoline used in stationary engines and diesel oil used in tractors.

Per Capita Energy Consumption (All Sources)    The per capita energy consumption (all sources) expressed in kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe) ranges from a low of 160.9 (Bangladesh) to a high of 512.4 (India). Highest growth rate was accounted for by Sri Lanka (37 per cent), followed by Bangladesh (30 per cent), and India (20 per cent). The world consumption was 1,633.3 (1990) and increased to 1,674.4 in 2003. The South Asian energy consumption was 23 per cent of world average in 1990 and increased to 27 per cent in 2003; while world consumption increased by 2.5 per cent (2003 over 1990), that of South Asia went up by 20.4 per cent (see Table 2.7).

 

Table 2.6 Road-sector Energy Consumption^∗

 

Table 2.7 Energy Consumption per Capita^∗

 

Indirect Pressures

Environmental and Social Impacts of Energy Projects   The manner in which thermal and hydel projects are executed has caused immense environmental damage. Lands acquired without concern for traditional livelihoods have pauperized millions, open-pit mining has further destroyed the forest cover, overburden is strewn around and fly-ash containment remains a problem. Hydel projects have caused inundation, thereby destroying ecosystems (Tehri Dam in eco-sensitive Uttarakhand, India). Just one coal project (Phulbari in Dinajpur district of Bangladesh) may displace 470,000 people. These are instances of policy-led poverty.

Lack of Energy Management   In the region, as a whole, a policy of energy management, greater efficiency and conservation is yet to be properly implemented. It is one thing having a policy and quite another where consumers believe in energy conservation and that concern is reflected in the consumption behaviour. This strategic weakness is adding to the energy demand.

Non-Availability of Clean Renewables   Energy from renewable sources is picking up but the spread of solar and wind energy is thin across the region, and geothermal potential is yet to be exploited.⁸

Thus, it can be seen that pressure for more energy is coming from industry, agriculture, food processing, retailing, transport and residential sectors, compounded further by shoddy approach to energy efficiency and lack of investment in clean energy.

State

Commercial Energy Mix in South Asia

The commercial energy mix in South Asia is coal (44.4 per cent), petroleum (34.3 per cent), natural gas (13.12 per cent) and hydro power (7.05 per cent). It implies that 92.8 per cent energy comes from fossil fuels. 71 per cent of electricity comes from thermal (coal, gas, oil and nuclear), 27 per cent from hydro-electric, and two per cent from nuclear. Thus, 71 per cent of electricity comes from finite resources; only 29 per cent from renewable (see Table 2.8).

Status of Pressure/Renewable Sources of Energy

In 2004, the oil equivalent of energy from these sources was 259.9 million tons from solid biomass, 46.29 thousand tons from biogas, 10.052 million tons from hydro and 322.61 thousand tons from wind. Solar photovoltaic accounted for a minuscule percentage. Thus, the total energy from renewables was 270 mtoe (see Table 2.9). Domestic uses accounted for 89 per cent and industrial for about 11 per cent. A minuscule percentage was used for commercial or public services. This has direct impact on (a) increased carbon emission, (b) loss of green cover and (c) decline in soil organic matter. For example, agriculture and animal waste constitutes a substantial amount of biomass that should actually be put back into the soil to improve soil carbon content and nutrients.

 

Table 2.8 Commercial-energy Mix in South Asia

 

Table 2.9 Renewable Sources of Energy

 

Status of Hydropower

Power utilities, exploiting hydro energy, have invariably overlooked the environmental cost of generation. This has led to substantially reduced project life as opposed to the designed life. These projects have also displaced millions of people from their lands. Not one project authority has properly resettled and rehabilitated affected households although legally required. Consequently, nearly every planned hydro-electric power project is facing popular opposition. Thus, hydels have been set up at huge human and environmental cost that is now unacceptable.^{9, 10} Bangladesh has faced similar problem. India’s geothermal potential is 10,600 MW of power, five times greater than the combined power produced from non-conventional energy sources (wind, solar and biomass) in 1999–2000. As one expert says, the ‘projects have not seen the sunlight due to the availability of 192 billion tons of recoverable coal reserves.’¹¹

Oil, Gas and Coal Resource Base

The demand obviously influences the rate of depletion. The total resource base of oil is enough to meet less than six years of consumption, gas reserve enough to meet about 50 and coal will last about 255 years at current rate of consumption, although coal data is undependable. If the total estimated hydro-electric potential were tapped, it would generate 88,392 ktoe of energy (see Table 2.10). To put the whole story briefly: South Asia faces massive energy deficit in coming years.

 

Table 2.10 Estimated Resource Base^∗

 

Status of Electricity Generation and Potential

India, Pakistan and Bangladesh account for the largest share of electricity generation of the eight countries. India alone accounts for 81 per cent of the regional generation; others 19 per cent (see Table 2.11). The per capita electricity consumption of 383.4 in 2003 was about 16 per cent of world average of 2,436 kwh. The highest per capita consumption was in India (434.8), followed by Pakistan (407.8), Sri Lanka (325.1) and Bangladesh (127.7). While the world energy consumption increased by about 18 per cent (2003 over 1990), during the same period the growth in South Asia (five countries) was 48.5 per cent (see Table 2.12).

 

Table 2.11 Share of Countries in Power Generation in South Asia

Afghanistan	–
Bangladesh	3.50%
Bhutan	0.33%
India	81.00%
Maldives	0.33%
Nepal	0.33%
Pakistan	13.51%
Sri Lanka	1.00%

 

Table 2.12 Electricity Consumption per Capita^∗

 

Access to Electricity in South Asia

Only 41.5 per cent of the South Asian population had access to electricity in 2002 as opposed to 72.8 per cent worldwide. In fact, 47 per cent of the world population living without electricity was South Asian. The highest accessibility was in Sri Lanka (62 per cent) with only 7.4 million without electricity. The lowest accessibility was in Nepal where only 15.4 per cent population had access. A total of 35 per cent of the world’s population without electricity lived in India in 2002 (see Table 2.13).

Sector-wise Consumption of Electricity

As shown in Table 2.5, 42.24 per cent electricity was consumed by industry, 25.2 per cent by residential sector and 17.97 per cent by agriculture and forestry. Commercial and transport sectors account for 9.75 per cent. Given the present policies, all sectors will see a spurt in demand.

Nuclear Energy

India and Pakistan both have nuclear power plants and plan to expand nuclear energy source. Indo–US nuclear agreement paves the way for setting up many more nuclear reactors. Latest information shows India had 17 plants generating 4,120 MW of electricity. Pakistan’s three facilities generate about 477 MW.

 

Table 2.13 Access to Electricity in South Asia

Region/Country	Population With Electricity (%)	Population Without Electricity (Million)
World	72.8	1,644.5
South Asia	41.55	775.3
	Country-wise
Afghanistan	–	–
Bangladesh	20.04	104.4
Bhutan	–	–
India	43	579
Maldives	–	–
Nepal	15.4	19.5
Pakistan	52.9	65
Sri Lanka	62	7.4

 

Energy Wastage

Even though South Asia is short of energy, it is wasteful in matters of energy usage. The actual T&D losses in excess of 40 per cent in most states of India are absolutely unacceptable when compared to the world average of 9 per cent. The losses for Bangladesh were 31 per cent, Nepal 21 per cent, Pakistan 28 per cent and Sri Lanka 22 per cent in 2000. In China, the losses are as low as 6 per cent and in Indonesia 12 per cent. Poor road geography, poor drivers’ training, poor maintenance of vehicles are all responsible for huge wastage of oil. Poorly managed distribution grid, power theft by private firms (especially in rural areas), poor capacity utilization of power plants, supply of poor quality coal because of corruption in coal industry, etc., are factors responsible for wastage, preventing accessibility in India. Perhaps this is a reason why GDP per barrel of oil is low in South Asia. Each barrel of oil generates US$ 821 of GDP when equivalent figure for Japan is $ 2,294, for Germany it is $ 2,194 and for the UK it is $ 3,393.¹²

Resource Base

The estimated potential for renewable is over 100,000 MW. Till 2001, the contribution of renewable energy to total power generation capacity in India was 3,430 MW. In 2005–06, India added 1,000 MW from wind energy. Much could be learned by cooperation and sharing of experiences in the field of tapping biomass energy and innovation in energy efficient devices.

Energy Dependence (Imports, Net)

South Asia’s dependence on imported energy is increasing (see Table 2.14). India’s dependence during 12 years to 2002 has gone up by 100 per cent, so has Sri Lanka’s. Nepal’s dependence has increased by more than 100 per cent. Pakistan and Bangladesh also show increased dependence on imports. This does not augur well for the region. The plan of Asia Energy—a British company, developing Phulbari mines—to export coal when import-dependent Bangladesh needs all of its fossil fuel, is not in national interest. The planned nuclear energy agreement will make India vulnerable to uranium suppliers.

 

Table 2.14 Energy Imports Net^∗

 

Table 2.15 Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels^∗

 

Carbon Dioxide Emission from South Asia

As stated earlier, the burning of fossil fuels generates carbon dioxide (CO₂), which is a primary cause of global warming leading to climate change. South Asia’s contribution to CO₂ emission has remained under 5 per cent of the global CO₂ emission despite the fact that it is home to over 22 per cent of global population (see Table 2.15). However, the per capita emission is high. The calculation does not include CO₂ generated from burning of biomass, a major source of energy for the people of South Asia. Satellite images have shown that during winter months a blue haze covers major parts of South Asia, which is emission and SPM from biomass burning.

Energy Demand Projection and Supply Position

Given the forecast growth rate for South Asia, including the emerging industrial India, energy demand will grow at a stupendous rate. It is predicted that the energy demand will grow at a rate of over 40 per cent during the first decade of the twenty-first century, just under 40 per cent from 2011 to 2020 and about 34 per cent during the third decade of 2020–30. Supply position in respect of oil has already been discussed. The total gas reserve in South Asia, if exploited judiciously, will provide at current rate of consumption for about 40 years, as some official documents suggest. Data on coal needs to be reassessed given the depletion rate and the downward revision of reserves.

The South Asian energy scenario shows low-energy consumption, high-energy intensity and fast demand growth. A wider use of renewables would address issues of conservation and access since the renewable systems offer centralized as well as decentralized solutions. All this would also require extensive promotion of energy efficient systems (see Chart 2.1).

Response

Existing

Adequate response should include (a) Development of available energy sources, (b) development of non-conventional energy sources and (c) mitigation strategies, including elimination of waste of fossil fuels. It must be borne in mind that nuclear energy is neither cost effective nor environmental appropriate; it poses a great risk to human health.

Development of Available Sources in South Asia   In so far as oil and gas are concerned, efforts at exploration and tie-up with oil surplus countries (Venezuela, Russia, the Caspian basin countries, etc) are going on. Land-locked countries like Afghanistan, Nepal and Bhutan are exploring regional energy cooperation. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are collaborating on development of gas distribution lines that cut across national boundaries. Simultaneously, coal mines are being developed to produce electricity. Having said this, none of these strategies is sustainable in the long run; at best these are short-run solutions because reserves are limited. Hydroelectric power generation is being pursued in a big way but for reasons cited above every project authority is facing a ground swell of opposition. Environmentalists are opposing damming of rivers because of a history of destruction of local habitat and reservoirs contributing to global warming. Every hydel project is mired in controversy, and solutions are not in sight. Finally, despite a move away in the developed countries, India is opting for nuclear energy.

 

Chart 2.1 Energy Demand Projections

 

Non-Conventional Energy Sources (Current Policies and Plans)   Renewable sources of energy from wind, solar, biofuel and biomass are being promoted through a concerted action of the governments and private sector developers. However, there are problems: (a) Solar photovoltaic panels are being exported leaving small percentage for regional consumption; (b) Biofuel (Jetropha plantations) is being promoted but the strategy is dangerous for poor farmers and food security. The plans for biofuel would fail for the following reasons:

1. Production of biofuel will add to CO₂ emissions; the net CO₂ balance has been found to be negative;
2. It destroys forest lands and biodiversity because it is intended to use genetically engineered biofuel crops;
3. Poor farmers will be ensnared to grow cash crops instead of food crop, thereby seriously eroding food sovereignty and this is already happening in Asia and Africa;
4. Increased yield of biofuel crops would require use of fertilizers and pesticides, both dependent on fossil fuels and damaging to the environment;
5. The geopolitics of oil will force all lesser-developed countries to export biofuel to developed economies, thus making them dependent on food.

The policy of biofuel production portends a global disaster of unimaginable proportion.^{13, 14}

(c) Efficient and low-cost windand draught-power based generation equipment is not being developed nor is the existing technology disseminated; (d) Production of biogas is at present limited to household level; commercial development has not been attempted in any South Asian country; (e) As for the clean energy growth, none of the South Asian countries has a workable plan for rapid promotion of clean energy.

Clean Energy Exploration and Exploitation   Geothermal resources in South Asia have been under assessment since 1970. There are more than 340 known thermal spring locations in India alone. Temperature gradient in excess of 100°C/km and heat flow in excess of 200 MW/m² has been recorded. Geofluid temperature up to 98°C (boiling point at the altitude of occurrence) and bottom hole temperature of 140°C–200°C has been recorded. However, these remain unexploited.¹⁵

Mitigation Strategies

Urban Transport System   One way of reducing the energy use is to have efficient urban public-transport system and improved suburban connectivity. Metro rail and high-capacity bus services are being developed but the pace and coverage leaves a lot to be desired. Not one country has started an integrated urban transport system that substantially reduces the use of personal vehicles. Major urban centres have bus service and some have metro (see Table 2.16). However, the efficiency and comfort level is uniformly below par, forcing people to opt for personal transport. It implies that major urban centres will be unable to cope with transportation needs when oil supplies shrink. For smaller cities, there is no policy of public transport system.

Inter-City Connectivity   Inter-city connectivity is quite extensive in India but the number and the frequency of trains needs to be increased to cope with the population pressure. The investments in road network could have been used for expanding rail network to unserved regions, particularly those in the Himalayas and the northeast. The policy of building motorway network in South Asia is unlikely to be of any help when the oil crisis hits.

 

Table 2.16 Public Transport System

Urban Area	System	Population Covered∗
Colombo, Sri Lanka	Bus	Not available
Dacca, Bangladesh	Local train, Bus	Not available
Delhi, India	Metro, Bus service	Not available
Kathmandu, Nepal	Trolley bus, Bus	Not available
Kolkata, India	Metro, Bus	Not available
Mumbai, India	Local train, Bus	Not available

 

Innovative Fuel Use   Different types of fuel for use in personal transport system are being investigated. These include gasohol, hydrogen fuel cells, electric hybrid vehicles, solar photovoltaic vehicles, etc. The problem with biofuel is availability of land. Hydrogen fuel cells are at the moment uneconomical and the technology is yet to become commercially viable. Electric hybrid vehicles, using a combination of gasoline and electricity, have been successfully tested in the US but its commercialization in South Asia has not been discussed at policy level. The most efficient internal combustion engines in use on South Asian roads are of 1983 vintage fitted in Honda cars.

Promotion of Fossil-Fuel-Free Agriculture and Forestry   Governments in South Asia are promoting Green Revolution and Gene Revolution technologies. These technologies are energy-intensive, destructive of biodiversity and stress the ecosystems. There is no incentive for farmers to rapidly adopt natural methods in spite of the fact that natural methods can substantially reduce dependence on oil. Ecosystem restoration can improve availability of water for irrigation, thereby reducing dependence on energy. One study in the Gangetic region has estimated that conventional farming requires approximately 90 litres of diesel oil per acre per year for irrigation alone, which is clearly unsustainable.

Reduction in Energy Wastivity   Energy-efficiency programmes are now on in nearly every country of South Asia. For instance, in India this task is being handled by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency, New Delhi, which focuses on areas like industrial and commercial training and certification, labelling of appliances etc. Similarly, the Pakistan Energy and Environment Management Centre (PEEMAC) is working towards the goal of ensuring overall energy efficiency in industry, road transport, agriculture, buildings, power generation, etc. in Pakistan. The Sri Lanka Standards Institution (SISI) and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Dhaka are some other agencies involved in energy-efficiency programmes in their respective countries. However, these are government-run programmes; community involvement is tenuous. In order to reduce T&D losses in power distribution, some states have privatized distribution but the private firms instead of reducing leakages have increased the tariff rate. Privatization is actually perpetuating wastivity because of unwillingness of the corporations to invest in better equipment (see Table 2.17).

There is no attempt on part of South Asian governments towards energy-saving devices for lighting, heating and cooling in a big way in homes, streets, commercial establishments and public service centres (offices, hospitals, schools, railway stations, airports, etc.). Building code for energy efficiency is yet to be evolved and incorporated into approved schedules.

Future Response

Demand-Side Management   It is the responsibility of South Asian governments to state the truth in simple, understandable language about the energy situation. If misleading information is given, as it is being done now, people will continue to use oil, gas and electricity as if there is no supply constraint. That will cause severe shortages in the future and may lead to collapse of food production and distribution and may even cause famine on a large scale. Therefore, the strategy should include the following:

 

Table 2.17 World Electricity Distribution Losses^∗

 

1. 100 per cent tax benefits for switching to renewable energy sources for household, commercial and industrial users;
2. 50–100 per cent subsidy to rural communities for setting up captive biogas, biomass, wind, geothermal, and micro-hydel. 100 per cent subsidy should only be given to households below the poverty line;
3. Free dissemination of non-conventional energy generation technology and technical assistance to users who opt for them;
4. Differential pricing and capping on fossil-fuel energy use. It should include a maximum limit (say 200 litres per month) of gasoline per car at a given price (say Rs 50) and after the limit is crossed a demand-destructive price of Rs 200 to Rs 400 per litre. Similar differential pricing for electricity consumption starting at Rs 2 per unit up to 200 units per month, Rs 4 for 200–500, and Rs 8 for 500 units or more can be implemented. Consumption of gas for cooking will also have to be restricted to bare minimum at one rate, and another if the consumption crosses that limit. The surplus thus generated should be invested in development of clean energy.
5. A scheme of energy credit to be given to each residential, industrial, commercial and service establishment that builds on responsible voluntary energy conservation coupled with carbon credits. Energy credit to be given at national level just as carbon credit is given at international level.

Fossil-Fuel-Free Food Production   Natural management (for example, organic, permaculture, biodynamic or Siddha) of farms should be promoted on a war footing. Since the systems are based on maintaining a high level of soil nutrition balance, which in turn depends upon mycorrhizal action and optimum carbon to nitrogen ratio, agricultural activities can help sequester CO₂ to the extent of 1.54 tons per acre. Further, it is estimated that 20 per cent of potential food crop production is lost each year due to unfavourable weather patterns (drought, flood, severe heat and cold, strong storms, etc.). If farmers switch to fossil-fuel-free methods, the intensity of climate change can also be reduced and slowly weather patterns can be normalized (see Box 2.5).

Urban Farming and Foodshed   There should be moratorium on urban expansion in all South Asian countries and all households and residential areas should be encouraged to grow food using natural methods. Regions around major metropolitan areas should be earmarked for foodsheds to minimize the energy required for transporting food. This will reduce energy consumption in transporting food from rural to urban areas and make way for substantial food sufficiency.

Relocalization Network and Rapid Development of Rural Areas   South Asia needs to build up its rural areas to a high level of energy efficiency while providing basic services like education, information dissemination through high-quality broadband Internet connectivity, systems that minimize travel for obtaining basic information, efficient low-energy construction, low-maintenance facilities, and minimal travel to access basic services. Developed rural areas will reduce pressure on urban expansion as well.

Innovative Production of Electricity   There are over 400,000 water mills (gharats) in the Himalayan region and each can easily produce 5–20 kWh of electricity. The milling stone can be replaced by an alternator to generate electricity. A majority of these assets are now redundant because milling of cereals is done by MNCs facilitated by cheap oil. Redeployment of these assets for energy production in the Himalayan region will ensure revenue to many households and make local rural communities free of commercial energy. Similarly, draught animals can be used for generating electricity for three to four hours in the evening. Low-torque alternator can produce electrical energy even at low-wind speed. It is not being promoted by any government in South Asia. This simple equipment can be produced for under US$100 using waste materials except magnet and copper wire. Large firms promoting wind energy are being subsidized. However, decentralized windenergy generation needs to be promoted as well.

Geothermal Energy   There are three geothermal power-plant technologies in use to convert geothermal energy to electricity. These are dry steam, flash and binary cycle. Binary cycle geothermal power generation plants differ from dry steam and flash steam systems in that the water or steam from the geothermal reservoir never comes in contact with the turbine/generator units.

Earlier the technology was too complex and expensive. The need to dig deep in search of oil has resulted in more advanced drilling methods and equipment that can be applied for ‘heat mining’. Innovation in binary-cycle power-plant design has turned the once complex method of energy conversion into a very simple operation (see Figure 2.1). In the schema, wells are dug to 5,850 feet where the temperature is 140°C –145°C. In the first loop of the system, water is pumped down into and back from a well up, often purely by natural hydrostatic pressure, through a heat exchanger, and then back down into ground to be reheated. In the second loop of the system, a ‘working’ fluid, any organic compound with a low boiling point, is pumped through the heat exchanger where the heat vaporizes it. The steam turns the turbine, generating electricity. Then it condenses and goes back into the heat exchanger and the process begins all over again. ‘According to an MIT study, worldwide over 100 million quads of accessible geothermal energy can be tapped,’ says a researcher. The first pilot 5 kW power plant using R113 binary fluid was successfully operated by GSI at Manikaran (Himachal Pradesh, India). It was also the last one.

 

Figure 2.1 Schema of Binary Cycle Geothermal Power

 

Connectivity   South Asia should rapidly build railway network connecting the remote and the mountain areas. India has the expertise in railway that can be utilized. This one-time investment will provide long-term connectivity and open up remote areas to faster access at least energy cost. Local rail network can run on locally generated electricity.

Resource-Sharing and Regional Energy Network   Based on complementarity, there is a need for region-wide energy-sharing agreement where resources of one country are optimally utilized. Thus, (a) Bhutan, Nepal and India can share hydro-electric power, (b) India, Pakistan and Bangladesh can share gas reserves and coal, and (c) all non-conventional energy can be exploited to maximize benefits for the people rather than gains for a few.

Conclusion

South Asia accounts for about 5.9 per cent of world’s commercial energy consumption. The non-commercial energy sources (wood, animal waste and other biomass) account for more than half of the region’s total energy consumption. Although the per capita energy consumption of 443 Kgoe is 26.2 per cent of the world average, per barrel of oil equivalent for GDP is among the highest in the world and indicates high energy wastivity.

Improved energy security is vital to South Asia’s economic growth and social stability given that demand is expected to double over the next 15 years. The region has large untapped energy resources, yet it continues to depend upon imports. The lack of regional energy cooperation and trade compounds the problem. Energy cooperation has the potential to be mutually beneficial for all regional players, with some countries acting as net suppliers, some as net consumers and some as net distributors of energy. Since regional imbalance can lead to social instability, regional cooperation must take primacy. These issue need to be addresses on a war footing.

Governments are Playing with Fire

Tested and tried methods are available but technology remains mired in politics. The civil society can put pressure on the government to adopt these techniques instead of following environmentally ruinous strategies. Solutions simply require our governments to put their mind to the problem and save millions of South Asians from a certain famine, an economic and social collapse. Solutions are available but difficult to manage because of political compulsions.¹⁶