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by George Dinwiddie
Software Estimation Without Guessing
 Acknowledgements
 Introduction
Benefit of Headlights
Beyond Story Points and Planning Poker
Definitions
Who This Book Is For
Goal of This Book
What’s in This Book
Conventions Used
Now It’s Your Turn
1. Starting Something New
When You’re Asked to Estimate Something New
Case: Developing a Fixed-Price Bid
Case: Is This Worth Starting?
Case: Can We Make This Work?
Case: What Should We Budget?
Case: Which of These Should We Choose?
Case: A Mixture of Questions
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
2. Comparison-Based Estimation
Comparison to Past Experience
Memory vs. Recorded Data
Aspects to Compare
Gestalt Estimation
Decomposition
Estimating the Unknown
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
3. Decomposition for Estimation
Which Way to Slice?
Decomposing by Phase
Decomposing by Implementation
Decomposing by Functionality
User Stories
Decomposition Decisions
A Large Number of Small Parts
A Small Number of Large Parts
Affinity Estimation
Ordering the Parts
Multi-Level Decomposition
Comparing Big Items with Small Ones
Decomposition Gotchas
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
4. Checking Progress
Getting Things Done
Detecting Progress
What to Measure
Visualizing Progress
Showing Value for the Money
Efficiency and Effectiveness
Optimization
Are We Going Fast Enough?
Pushing Our Limits
Situational Awareness
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
5. Model-Based Estimation
Modeling the Size
Modeling the Rate
Unavoidable Subjectivity
The Linear Model Approach
Advanced Linear Model Techniques
The Parametric Model Approach
The Stochastic Model Approach
Comparison-Model Hybrid
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
6. Estimating Milestones
Deadlines
Early Release
Coordination with Others
Evaluating and Changing Plans
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
7. When Estimates and Actuals Differ
Driving Up Costs
Salvaging the Situation
Learning from the Situation
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
8. Planning for Incorrect Predictions
Seeking Out Information
Setting Traps for Information
Avoid Traps for the Unwary
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
9. When People Clash
It Starts So Innocently
How It Goes Wrong
Understanding Human Behavior
Imagine a Better Situation
Retraining Ourselves
Tools for Better Understanding
Stepping Back for a Broader View
Now It’s Your Turn
Conclusion
 Bibliography
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