Uncertainty Balancers
We’ve observed a surprising contrast between what innovators say about their relationship to uncertainty and what they actually do behind the scenes. When we asked for their feelings about uncertainty, we heard responses such as “I love uncertainty” or “I live for uncertainty,” sentiments that can be intimidating and hard to relate to. But when we dug a bit deeper, many of those who claimed to love uncertainty had also gone to surprising lengths to create a great deal of certainty in other parts of their lives. These uncertainty balancers, in the form of habits, routines, rituals, objects, humor, and relationships, served to counteract, or balance, the unknowns they faced.
Sam Yagan has been one of Time’s one hundred most influential people, is the founder or cofounder of four companies (including SparkNotes and OkCupid), and was CEO of Match.com when it disrupted its own business with Tinder. When we asked Yagan about uncertainty, he said boldly, “I love uncertainty. It’s fuel for me.”1 But when we asked about other parts of his life, Yagan revealed a concerted effort to minimize uncertainty elsewhere. “I’m drawn to low-drama relationships, stability, etc. My best friends are from junior high and high school. I married my high school sweetheart…. I already have a natural comfort with ambiguity, but I do think that given how much ambiguity I traffic in at work, I do look for less in other areas of my life.”2
It is a well-established fact that having something familiar helps people to accept the unfamiliar. Technologists have exploited this tendency for centuries in the form of skeuomorphs—familiar elements from older technology that help people accept newer technology. For example, e-commerce sites use shopping carts like physical retail, digital cameras make an audible click like the shutter in analog cameras, email is represented by a paper envelope icon, and early digital notepads looked like real paper (the original iPhone Notes resembled a yellow legal pad). None of these elements serve any functional purpose except to make us more comfortable with the unknown by linking it to something familiar. In fact, when Thomas Edison introduced his electric lighting system, he intentionally dimmed the light bulb to match the brightness of a gas light so it would be easier for people to accept.3
Similarly, we can use uncertainty balancers to help us face the unknown in our lives. Uncertainty balancers take many forms, including habits and routines. For example, when we interviewed Lindsay Tauber, former head of Novartis’s Digital Acceleration Labs, which is responsible for creating new internal startups, she announced, “I eat uncertainty for breakfast!” But when we inquired more deeply, she revealed some unusually routine habits. When she travels, she always chooses the same seat on the plane, stays in the same hotel, and carries the same granola for breakfast.4 Likewise, fashion designer Paul Smith, known for his risky, bold color combinations, stays in the same hotel, and even in the same room, whenever he travels.5 Artist Georgia O’Keeffe would arise at the same hour and eat the same breakfast, and Apple cofounder Steve Jobs had a closet full of enough black turtlenecks to last him a lifetime. Even objects can act as uncertainty balancers. Architect Tadao Ando said “we need unbreakable passion to survive the unknown,” but then went on to describe his “unbreakable” passions: the fountain pens he loves, his typewriter, cherry blossoms in spring, and the Hotel d’Angleterre in Paris, where he loves to stay.6
Still others adopt rituals. In 1914 anthropologist Bronisław Malinowski observed that the inhabitants of the Trobriand Islands of New Guinea attributed their fishing success to skill in familiar waters and performed rituals when fishing in unfamiliar waters to give them confidence.7 Although you may be tempted to discount ritual, know that recent studies show up to 70 percent of college students perform small rituals before a big exam, as do a similar percentage of athletes before a big competition.8 What these and related experiments reveal is that such rituals aren’t useless mumbo-jumbo but actually serve the real purpose of helping us deal with the anxiety of uncertain situations.9
Research also suggests that humor can be useful for dealing with uncertainty.10 “Gallows humor,” a term that can be traced back to the 1848 revolutions in Germany, is a technique for dealing with stressful, uncertain situations.11 Paramedic Benjamin Gilmour recalls the frequent use of gallows humor to deal with stress and uncertainty in his work. He remembers one emergency visit where his team found a man, unconscious and in cardiac arrest, lying in front of the TV. As they frantically tried to revive him, his wife said through tears, “Well, I knew you didn’t like that show, but I didn’t know you disliked it that much.”12 Although morbid on the surface, the ability to use gallows humor, according to sociologist Antonin Obrdlik, “is an index of strength or morale.”13 Author Catherine Ingram recalls how the singer Leonard Cohen was a master of gallows humor, explaining that its power comes from allowing “a sideways glance at the gathering clouds while one is still sipping tea in the garden…. In sharing gallows humor, it is also comforting to know that your friend sees the tragicomedy as well. There is an amortizing of the burden when we share a heavy load.”14
Of all the uncertainty balancers, relationships may be the most powerful. Mike Rhodin, who led IBM’s artificial intelligence project Watson from its early days as little more than a computer science experiment, said, “I love uncertainty. I was a competitive athlete in the past, so I love the thrill.” But when we asked about how he managed the inevitable anxiety that attends uncertainty, he was very open. “I have a stable core—I’ve been married for thirty years, and my wife chose to stay home with the kids. That stability really helps me do all the other crazy stuff.”15 Likewise, Morten Karlsen Sørby, a senior executive who has acted in CEO and leadership roles at some of the world’s largest telecom operations, reflected that “you think that when you become a leader, your life will become more certain, but actually it becomes more uncertain.”16 When explaining how he deals with uncertainty, he too pointed to his family.
Friends and communities can play a similar role in more long-term relationships for balancing uncertainty. Dallas Roberts, an actor who has been in TV shows such as Law & Order and The Walking Dead, told us about the importance of the community he met at the Juilliard School for enduring the uncertainty of his job: “I have a community of friends who are also actors, and we all email each other and talk to each other. That community is immensely helpful in dealing with the uncertainty of not knowing if you will get the next role.”17
In sum, navigating uncertainty well isn’t about living in chaos all the time. A better strategy is to find uncertainty balancers to lower the anxiety of facing the unknown. Former UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill provides an inspiring example of using such balancers to endure a decade of uncertainty when it appeared his “destiny envisioned but not yet attained” would never materialize.18 Churchill had already faced a great deal of uncertainty in his life: His teachers described him as a “lazy little wretch.” He failed his military school entrance exams twice and just barely managed to get into the cavalry, which his father dismissed as second-rate, concluding that his son was “a social wastrel … one of the hundreds of the public school failures.”19 Even after Churchill established a promising political career, his oversight of the disastrous World War I attack at Gallipoli, which had half a million casualties, appeared to be the definitive end of his ambitions.
Dismissed from the cabinet and the war room, Churchill retreated to his estate, Chartwell, where to deal with the disappointment and uncertainty he began “laying bricks, digging ponds, sculpting terraces, planting gardens, and painting in oils.”20 He adopted a rigid, if eccentric, schedule and spent a great deal of time writing, all while waiting out the grueling period until, with the advent of World War II, he was called back into the political arena and ultimately became one of the great leaders of freedom in the Western world.
Reflection and Practice
Recall the thermometer metaphor we used to chart our uncertainty ability and possibility quotient in chapter 2. There is an optimal area (the learning zone, between the comfort and panic zones) for most of us, below which we stagnate and above which we malfunction. One way to prepare for, or deal with, uncertainty is to use uncertainty balancers to bring us back into this optimal area.
Two important categories of uncertainty balancers to explore include (1) small traditions and routines that bring comfort and (2) predefined choices that create efficiency (e.g., breakfast, wardrobe, schedule, exercise routine). This is not about creating rigid systems, so build in flexibility. If your balancers stop working, adjust or drop them. To find the gaps where uncertainty balancers will be most meaningful, do an audit of the existing routines you live by.
- Examine your routine. Jot down your daily or weekly schedule, paying special attention to time slots that introduce decision breakdowns or stress.
– Do you feel like you suffer more from a lack of renewal (e.g., traditions, things you look forward to) or a lack of efficiency (e.g., menu and chore planning, repetitive tasks)?
– Are there repetitive tasks you can automate, delegate, or stop worrying about?
– Are you spending too much energy making decisions? Consider psychologist Barry Schwartz’s research on the paradox of choice, which reveals that too much choice decreases happiness and satisfaction and can even lead to paralysis.21
– Are you spending swaths of time on entertainment (e.g., binging on shows, games, or social media) to avoid dealing with uncertainty? What could you do instead to help you rejuvenate rather than just check out?
– Are there spots where you get stuck? If you are dreading getting out of bed every morning, could you create a morning routine that feels kinder to yourself—time for eating a more nourishing breakfast, reading something inspiring, or choosing an outfit that helps you look your best?
- Adopt new rituals. Even the simplest traditions bring comfort and meaning to our lives. Don’t underestimate the power of setting aside time—with friends, family, a club, or by yourself—to do something you enjoy. Some of our favorites over the years: pancakes for lunch on Sundays, watching the Avatar: The Last Airbender TV series from beginning to end during the winter, bridge walks that crisscross the Seine to mark important milestones, biweekly morning soccer, “family church” where we aim to promote vulnerable and spiritual conversations at home with our kids. If you have a hefty list of rituals, keep going with them—they are providing much-needed certainty to your life! If you feel like you are missing out, add new traditions or elevate the ones that are on life support.
- Adjust for your context. Consider your need for uncertainty balancers in relation to the heat of the uncertainty you face currently. If you are living in an uncertainty panic zone, you might need to implement more extreme measures to rebalance yourself, such as taking a mental health day or finishing your work early enough to do something you love. Removing optional tasks from your plate if they’re proving to be toxic—even if you originally said yes to them—can balance the uncertainty you are living with.