Notes
CHAPTER 1: MATERIALS BASICS
1 Copyright © [2009] The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Standard & Poor’s, including its subsidiary corporations (S&P), is a division of the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Reproduction of this work in any form is prohibited without S&P’s prior written permission.
4 “Exploration,”
Engineering and Mining Journal (April 2001).
6 Keith Campbell, “State Mining Royalties Proposals Improve, but Still Causing Some Concern,”
Mining Weekly (November 17, 2006),
http://www.miningweekly.com/article.php?a_id=97472 (accessed August 14, 2008); International Finance Corporation Press Release, “IFC Helps Support Black Economic Empowerment in South Africa” (February 13, 2004),
http://ifcln001.world-bank.org/ifcext/pressroom/ifcpressroom.nsf/PressRelease?openform&7BFB6F8A2076B59285256E3900546EBC (accessed July 29, 2008).
8 CEO of Titan International in Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript, page 9 of 15.
CHAPTER 2: A BRIEF HISTORY OF MATERIALS
3 Yves Meny, Vincent Wright, and Martin Rhodes,
The Politics of Steel: Western Europe and the Steel Industry in the Crisis Years (1974-1984) (New York: Walter De Gruyter, 1987).
CHAPTER 3: MATERIALS SECTOR DRIVERS
5 Thomson Financial, “Rio Tinto Secures 85 Percent Rise in 2008 Iron Ore Contract Prices,”
Forbes (June 23, 2008),
http://global.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2008/06/23/afx5143385.html (accessed July 17, 2008). United Steelworkers, “Australian Rain Plus Chinese Demand Equals Higher Coal Prices,” (June 5, 2008),
http://www.uswa.ca/program/printthispage.php?pageid=5072&lan=en (accessed July 17, 2008).
9 BHP Billiton February 6th, 2008 interim presentation.
11 Thompson Street Events, February 2008 Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference, Page 1.
12 Thompson Street Events, Freeport Mcmoran Q4 2007, conference call.
CHAPTER 4: MATERIALS SECTOR BREAKDOWN
1 Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form, and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates, and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing, or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits), or any other damages.
30 Paul C. Westcott, “U.S. Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes Throughout the Agricultural Sector,” United States Department of Agriculture (September 2007),
http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/September07/Features/Ethanol.htm (accessed June 25, 2008); Ephraim Leibtag, “Corn Prices Near Record High, But What About Food Costs?” United States Department of Agriculture (February 2008),
http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/February08/Features/CornPrices.htm (accessed June 25, 2008); “Agrium: Transformation & Growth” (February 2008),
http://www.agrium.com/uploads/Morgan_Stanley_08.pdf (accessed June 25, 2008).
34 K.S. Jayaraman, “India Approves Cultivation of GM Crops,” Science and Development Network (March 26, 2002),
http://www.scidev.net/en/news/india-approves-cultivation-of-gm-crops.html (accessed June 25, 2008); Don Ethridge, “Changes in Global Cotton Markets: Causes and Effects,” Cotton Economics Research Institute, Texas Tech University (September 11, 2007),
http://www.aaec.ttu.edu/CERI/policy/includes/WCRC4%20Presentation%20(2).ppt?bcsi_scan_34E336E4D93AA9DD=0&bcsi_scan_filename=WCRC4%20Presentation%20(2).ppt#260,5,Slide%205 (accessed June 25, 2008).
CHAPTER 5: STAYING CURRENT: TRACKING SECTOR FUNDAMENTALS
CHAPTER 6: CASE STUDY: THE 2003 TO 2007 BULL MARKET IN MATERIALS
1 2006 Iron Ore Minerals Yearbook; The World Copper Factbook 2007.
5 James Russell, “Coal Use Rises Dramatically Despite Impacts on Climate and Health,” Worldwatch Institute (2008),
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5508 (accessed June 20, 2008). DUPE.
13 BHP Billiton February 6th, 2008 interim presentation, page 18; Vale Q2 2008 Earnings Presentation, page 11.
14 BHP Billiton February 6th, 2008 interim presentation, page 18.
21 Rio Tinto Investor Presentation, Australian Site Visit, June 15, 2008.
23 Lester R. Brown, Michael Renner, and Christopher Flavin, V
ital Signs 1998: The Environmental Trends That Are Shaping Our Future (W.W. Norton & Company, 1998).
29 Thompson Street Event, Q4 2006 transcript. Page 4.
38 Thomson Reuters; as of 12/31/07, deal value and volume represent public and private deals.
CHAPTER 7: THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
2 Berkshire Hathaway 2005 Annual Report.
4 Gary P. Brinson, Brian D. Singer, and Gilbert L. Beebower, “Determinants of Portfolio Performance II: An Update,”
The Financial Analysts Journal 47 (1991 [3]): 40-48.
5 Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing, or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits), or any other damages.
CHAPTER 9: MATERIALIZE YOUR PORTFOLIO: INVESTING STRATEGIES
1 Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates, and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing, or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits), or any other damages.
APPENDIX B
1 Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates, and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing, or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits), or any other damages.