CHAPTER 11
Developing a General Market View

In Section 10 waves, wave cycles, projections, and retracements were discussed as the basis for forecasting. Section 11 brings together additional elements to support a forecast, such as moving averages, stops, and retracement tables. In addition, projections are viewed on a more comprehensive basis by looking at confluent targets within tables.

QUESTION 11.1   M Weekly as of August 11, 2014 (Refer to ANSWER 10.1)

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The monthly chart above shows that following the 54.82 swing low a 61.00 swing high was made.

  1. Given one down wave, 61.26 – 54.82 – 61.00, what is the smaller than target?

  2. Here's the retracement table from the swing lows shown on the chart to 61.00. Is the smaller than target confluent on this table? Shade in any cells you deem important. Add any further comments you deem appropriate.

    From 54.82 56.37
    21% 59.7 inline
    38% 58.7 59.2
    50% 57.9 58.7
    62% 57.2 58.1
    89% 55.5 56.9

  3. Here's the support DevStop table. Do you find corroboration for the smaller than target? If so, shade in any cells you want to point out. Add any further comments you deem appropriate.

    Support Dev1 Dev2 Dev3 Dev6
    Daily 59.2 58.7 58.1 57.0
    Weekly 57.0 55.8 54.3 51.8
  4. Just looking at the candlestick chart, where would you draw a support line? Does this change how you would view support?

QUESTION 11.2   MMM Monthly (Refer back to ANSWER 10. 2)

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Retracement Table from ANSWER 10.1

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For QUESTION 10.1 we looked at a price of around 133.4 as being interim support. Using that information, please address the following questions.

  1. Here's the support DevStop table. How does this table add to any knowledge about the importance of 133.4? Shade any cells you wish to point out.

    Support Warn Dev1 Dev2 Dev3 Dev6
    Daily 138.8 138.0 137.1 136.0 134.1
    Weekly 141.1 138.9 136.1 133.0 127.6

  2. Now, here's the moving average table. How does this table add to any knowledge about the importance of 133.4? Shade any cells you wish to point out.

    Weeks 8 26  52
    SMA 143.7 139.1  132.7
  3. Now looking at the monthly candlestick chart, with a horizontal line at 133.1, how does this add to your understanding of interim support?

QUESTION 11.3   NGU14 60M Equivalent Kase Bars with Swing 4

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“Landscape” Table for Up Waves NGU14 as of August 9, 2014

X Y Z S E I L T X P1 P2 P3
3.725 3.857 3.739 3.82 3.87 3.92 3.95 4.14 4.10 3.93 4.05 4.24
3.725 3.890 3.760 3.86 3.93 3.99 4.03 4.24 4.22 3.97 4.10 4.31
3.725 3.981 3.858 4.02 4.11 4.21 4.27 4.55 4.57 4.06 4.18 4.38
3.739 3.831 3.749 3.81 3.84 3.88 3.90 4.02 4.00 3.88 3.96 4.10
3.749 3.836 3.760 3.81 3.85 3.88 3.90 4.02 4.00 3.88 3.96 4.08
3.749 3.890 3.760 3.85 3.90 3.95 3.99 4.19 4.15 3.97 4.10 4.31
3.749 3.981 3.858 4.00 4.09 4.18 4.23 4.49 4.50 4.06 4.18 4.38
3.760 3.877 3.761 3.83 3.88 3.92 3.95 4.12 4.08 3.95 4.06 4.25
3.761 3.853 3.826 3.88 3.92 3.95 3.97 4.04 4.08 3.87 3.90 3.94
3.761 3.932 3.876 3.98 4.05 4.11 4.15 4.30 4.35 3.97 4.02 4.11
3.826 3.981 3.858 3.95 4.01 4.07 4.11 4.31 4.29 4.06 4.18 4.38
3.858 3.938 3.900 3.95 3.98 4.01 4.03 4.10 4.12 3.96 4.00 4.06
3.858 3.975 3.962 4.03 4.08 4.12 4.15 4.22 4.29 3.98 4.00 4.02
3.881 3.975 3.962 4.02 4.06 4.09 4.11 4.17 4.22 3.98 4.00 4.02
  1. Given the waves and targets above, label the waves.
  2. Mark the major waves you used in your analysis along with any associated targets.
  3. Explain how you chose which swing high to use among 3.915, 3.928, and 3.932, and explain why. Was there an alternative choice?
  4. Explain how you chose to label the 3.981 swing high.
  5. Starting with a target at least 10 cents above the 3.981 high, with a range of +/– 2 cents, color code the next two major targets that appear most confluent. Make sure the second target is at least 10 cents above the first target.
  6. Shade in any duplicate corrective projections.
  7. Why are there duplicate targets at all?
  8. Did any of the projected targets help you decide how to label the chart?
  9. If the market were to exceed 4.10 but stall before meeting 4.22, what would you choose for the stall price? Take the following retracement table into consideration, and explain how it helped you choose the stall price.
  10. Was the 21 percent retracement of the entire move down from 4.874 met?
  11. For the move down from 4.399 to 3.725, which retracement does the 3.981 fulfill?

Retracements from Prices Shown to 3.725

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QUESTION 11.4   Forecasting Exercise for NGU14

“Landscape” Table for Down Waves NGU14 as of August 9, 2014

X Y Z S E I L X T P1 P3
8.474 5.223 5.771 3.76 2.52 1.28 0.51 1.98 –3.21 4.88 3.45
5.771 4.878 4.997 4.45 4.10 3.76 3.55 3.49 2.53 4.80 4.49
5.687 4.878 4.997 4.50 4.19 3.88 3.69 3.59 2.76 4.80 4.49
5.687 3.582 4.874 3.57 2.77 1.96 1.47 1.42 –0.94 2.78 –0.60
4.997 3.582 4.874 4.00 3.46 2.92 2.58 1.84 0.96 2.78 –0.60
4.874 3.725 3.981 3.27 2.83 2.39 2.12 2.18 0.81 3.57 2.90
4.582 4.089 4.159 3.85 3.67 3.48 3.36 3.26 2.80 4.05 3.86
4.582 3.725 3.981 3.45 3.12 2.80 2.59 2.46 1.61 3.57 2.90
4.470 4.102 4.159 3.93 3.79 3.65 3.56 3.45 3.14 4.07 3.92
4.470 3.940 3.981 3.65 3.45 3.25 3.12 3.06 2.52 3.91 3.81
4.470 3.725 3.981 3.52 3.24 2.95 2.78 2.59 1.92 3.57 2.90
4.399 4.078 4.142 3.94 3.82 3.70 3.62 3.50 3.25 4.04 3.87
4.159 3.725 3.981 3.71 3.55 3.38 3.28 2.99 2.78 3.57 2.90

Given the table above for down waves from the contract high, answer the following:

  1. Cross out the prices that have been met based on the applicable low.
  2. Highlight the next major support below 3.582, and state the value.
  3. Why is this price particularly significant?
  4. What's the next major support above 3.00? Color-code it.
  5. How about below 3.00? Color-code it.
  6. How might the DevStop table inform or confirm the values you've chosen? Color-code the confluence points.
Support Dev1 Dev2 Dev3 Dev4.5
Daily 3.80 3.75 3.69 3.65
Weekly 3.55 3.45 3.33 3.25
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