CHAPTER 10
Forecasting Techniques: Waves and Projections

Section 10 teaches various forecasting techniques using wave projections and retracements. The section also teaches about the relationship between Phi and Fibonacci, and how that relationship can be used in forecasting future market prices. Traders learn how to calculate five basic impulse projections, three corrective projections, and the trend terminus. They are also taught how to calculate and use retracements and identify confluence between the retracements and wave projections.

QUESTION 10.1   MMM Monthly with Swing 2 Labels

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  1. List the waves up from 40.87, and explain how you made your choices.
  2. Which impulse target was fulfilled at 146.43 within 2 percent?
  3. Which corrective projection was fulfilled at 146.43 within 2 percent?
  4. Fill in the following table:

    X Y Z Target Price
    1   40.87   98.19   68.63 L
    2   68.63   95.46   86.74 X
    3   81.99 140.43 123.61 S
    4 123.61 146.43 138.43 E
    5 123.61 146.43 138.43 P2
  5. Based on the table, what might be the next confluence point above 146.43?
  6. List the waves that contain the same YZ leg, where Y is 146.43.
  7. Put the X values for the waves you've listed for the list in “6,” and fill out the retracements from the X value to 146.43. Shade any retracements already met.

    From                                                  
    21%
    38%
    50%
    62%
    89%
  8. Circle the confluent retracement prices you think will form the next important support. Explain why these prices are important.
  9. Calculate the equal to (E) impulse target and the corrective projection, Phi squared or P2, for the one wave down, 146.43 – 138.43 – 140.89. Does the result cause you to view the retracement table differently?

QUESTION 10.2   M Monthly with Swing 2 Labels

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  1. List the wave cycles up from 5.07.
  2. What corrective projections from the first wave cycle up were met by its YZ leg? Show your calculations.
  3. For the wave 5.07 – 25.25 – 16.925, what's the P1 projection? What point met this projection? With what point from “2.” is it confluent?
  4. For the wave 5.07 – 15.29 – 10.27, which swing high (within a 2 percent range) fulfilled its larger than target?
  5. For the wave 5.07 – 26.32 – 21.69, which two consecutive impulse projections were met within a 2 percent range?
  6. Fill out the following table. For greater accuracy, use three decimals for the multipliers, if any.

    X Y Z        Target Price
    5.07 11.93 T
    5.07 30.62 L
    5.07 50.77 P2
    5.07 61.26 P1
  7. Given the prices calculated in the table above, what would you say the next target above 61.26 might be?
  8. List the waves that include 61.26 – 54.82 as the corrective YZ portion.
  9. Put the X values for the waves you've listed in the first row of this table, and fill out the retracements from the X value to 61.26. Shade any retracements already met.

    From                                                                                                    
    21%
    38%
    50%
    62%
    89%
  10. What price would you estimate as the next major retracement to be tested? Circle the values.

QUESTION 10.3   K with Waves and Swing 3 Labels

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  1. Mark valid up waves (XY) in blue.
  2. List the XYZ points for the related wave cycles.
  3. Mark valid down waves (XY) in red.
  4. List the XYZ points for the related wave cycles.
  5. For the largest wave cycle up from 55.69, what is the 62 percent retracement? Has it been met? Show the calculation.
  6. For the largest wave cycle down from 69.50 what is the 38 percent retracement? Has it been met? Show the calculation.
  7. Was the wave cycle 55.69 – 67.49 – 64.80 ever valid? Why isn't it valid now?
  8. Was the wave cycle 68.80 – 66.98 – 69.50 ever valid? Why isn't it valid now?
  9. What's the I (Intermediate) target for the first wave cycle down from 69.50? Show the calculation. Was this target met within 0.50 percent?
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