UNEXPLODED BOMBS
Use to remind you of the unexploded bombs that lie hidden in every organisation and the need to respond quickly should they explode.
The UXB Model is a metaphor for those risks that are lying quietly in many organisations, gently ticking away, counting down to the moment they will explode and destroy the business. Many organisations are sitting on such bombs without even knowing it. The strength of the model is that it challenges people complacency and asks them to identify potential threats and strategies and deal with them.
Very often ‘the bomb’ will relate to the organisation’s inability to read the marketplace and/or respond rapidly to changes in the market or business sector.
HOW TO USE IT
- The problem with unexploded bombs is that you don’t know what you don’t know. Identifying possible threats is going to be your biggest challenge and will require creative thinking.
- Pull together a small working party and follow the approach outlined for SWOT and PEST Analyses (see Theory 67), except this time you are only interested in identifying large and potentially devastating threats to the organisation’s existence.
- Assess how likely it is that the bomb will explode. Some threats may never become reality. Others may blow up next week. Electric cars may well be a threat to petrol powered cars but they aren’t going to replace our oil guzzlers in the next 5 years. People have too much capital invested in their current cars to dump them and buy a new electric car. The electric revolution, if it happens, will be slow and steady. Compare that to the major changes in medicine that are likely to occur over the next ten years thanks to advances in human genetics.
- Estimate when the bomb will explode. If it’s in 10 years’ time, you may consider that it is too distant to be concerned with as circumstances may change significantly over that time. If you calculate 3 years, you need to identify what strategies can be put in place to either defuse the bomb, delay its explosion or contain the damage it causes when it goes off.
- Defusing strategies include:
- Investing in R&D to create a shield that negates the threat you face.
- Changing your business model and/or practices.
- Delaying strategies include:
- Changing your products in an attempt to postpone the day they will become obsolete.
- Changing your business plan, e.g. emphasising internet sales over high-street sales.
- Containment/elimination strategies include:
- Changing the business focus to something entirely new.
- Selling the business and starting anew.
- It’s generally safe to ignore the very unlikely and/or very distant events. But there are always Black Swan events out there just waiting to be discovered (see Theory 69).
QUESTIONS TO ASK
- How much attention do you pay to innovations and new ideas in your business sector?
- Is there anyone looking for bombs in your organisation? If not is it something you could take on and become known for?
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