7 Windtunneling Strategies with Scenarios

Generating strategies is the first and most obvious way to use scenarios. The ideas presented in chapter 6 showed three different ways to generate strategies. The next step is to assess how those strategies hold up in each scenario and across the set of scenarios. The purpose of this chapter is to describe the concept of windtunneling and show you how to use it to test your strategies. This chapter will describe the concept of windtunneling, show an example of windtunneling strategies through scenarios, and explain how to adjust the outcomes of windtunneling to make them more precise and detailed for strategic planning. The results of these activities will help you determine a set of strategies that are useful across the set of scenarios, and add more clarity so that they are truly actionable.

Windtunneling

Windtunneling is the process of using scenarios to test strategies or possible actions (Chermack, 2011; de Ruijter, 2014; van der Heijden, 2011; Wade, 2012). When engineers create a new car or airplane, it is a common practice to put the structure in a wind tunnel and observe, for example, under what conditions the wings start to fall apart. The purpose of this is to determine airflow and ultimately to understand the structural integrity of the object being windtunneled. The concept is the same with scenario planning, except instead of windtunneling structures you are windtunneling ideas. To go a step further, scenarios provide multiple wind tunnels based on the idea that you cannot predict the environment in which you may need to operate. Instead of just a single variable (e.g., wind speed), scenarios allow you to test potential ideas and strategies in multiple future environments.

Other authors mention windtunneling as a way to use scenarios (e.g., de Ruijter, 2014; van der Heijden, 2011), though again the available guidance is not clear enough to apply. It is possible to windtunnel just about anything, and the overall process is the same. While this chapter focuses specifically on windtunneling strategies, you can windtunnel organizational culture, workforce capacity, and organization structure, among many other things. Questions like, What kind of organizational culture would we need to perform in each of these scenarios? What kind of human resources, expertise, and capacity would we need to be successful in each of these scenarios? and What kind of organizational structure would we need to deliver our products or services in each of these scenarios? are often provoked through the scenario building process. The process of windtunneling can help to explore and answer these kinds of questions in a strategic way. The goal is to check how well a set of strategies can perform in a variety of future environments.

Windtunneling involves reviewing scenario 1, getting mentally absorbed in the dynamics of the scenario, and then asking how each strategy would perform in that scenario. The activity is repeated for the remaining scenarios. Figure 7.1 provides a generic windtunneling template.

Example: Fish and Wildlife Agency

Using the Fish and Wildlife Agency example, the process for getting to windtunneling was as follows:

• Use the generic strategies workshop from chapter 6

• Clarify the common generic strategies across the set of scenarios

The outcomes of the generic strategies exercise are in figure 7.2, placed within the scenario matrix. Remember that these ideas are the outcomes of asking participants to consider the question, What would we do now if we knew this scenario was going to come true? The exercise was repeated for each of the four scenarios according to the instructions in chapter 6, and the outcome strategies are shown in figure 7.2.

As you can see, the matrix contains too many strategies to work with. The next step in thinking about windtunneling is to consolidate the ideas for each scenario into what is common across all of them. In other words, the goal is to find a common and manageable set of strategies that are helpful in all or most scenarios. In the case of Fish and Wildlife Agency, participants were asked to clarify and consolidate their ideas, looking for generic strategies across the set of scenarios. The resulting list of the most common and helpful strategies was as follows:

1. Develop targeted outreach to new [state] residents

2. Explore and identify new revenue sources (taxes, royalties, fees)

3. Increase partnerships with public, private, and nongovernmental organizations

4. Partner with education to enhance K–12 wildlife curriculum

5. Offer “see and experience” wildlife tours

6. Restructure Fish and Wildlife Agency to regional offices

7. Develop and provide resources for enhanced emergency management planning

8. Engage partners and facilitate discussions on at-risk ecosystems

9. Invest in climate change analysis tools and programs

10. Modify water infrastructure

The team used the windtunneling process to examine each of the 10 strategy items in each scenario. The goal was a general assessment of how well the strategies would perform within and across the scenario set. Qualitative assessment with short descriptions, color coding, or symbols can be used to indicate the utility of the option in the context of the scenario (see figure 7.3).

In this case, the windtunneling process showed 4 core strategies out of the 10 that were ranked as “high utility” across all four scenarios:

• Develop targeted outreach to new [state] residents

• Explore and identify new revenue sources (taxes, royalties, fees)

• Offer “see and experience” wildlife tours

• Develop and provide resources for enhanced emergency management planning

The purpose of this exercise, once again, was to identify a small number of strategies that would become the foundation of action. The omitted six strategies are not off the table but may need more detailed study or may be scenario dependent. The results of this exercise give you a way to reduce the options to a manageable and actionable few and to understand which strategies will perform well across the different scenarios.

Workshop Format and Guidelines: Windtunneling Generic Strategies

Time: 2–4 hours.

Participants: 5–15.

Assumptions: You have a set of scenarios and a set of generic strategies.

Workshop Format: Assemble the decision-making team in a live, online, or other meeting location and use the instructions below.

Instructions:

• Review scenario 1 to get into the mind-set of the dynamics it contains.

• Participants individually consider the set of strategies in scenario 1 in terms of how each strategy item will generally perform.

• Continue debate and dialogue until a general agreement is reached.

• Repeat the process for the remaining scenarios.

Products:

• A manageable set of core strategies that perform well across the set of scenarios

Adjusting Windtunneled Strategies for a Strategic Plan

As we saw in chapter 2, it is common for strategic plans to be vague and nonactionable. The items in a strategic plan have to be precise, and they have to include attention to the scope, schedule, and budget required. They must also include measurement criteria. While there are different views on what makes for the most useful strategic plan, a simple approach that accomplishes what is needed looks like this:

STRATEGY ITEM:

SCOPE:

SCHEDULE:

BUDGET:

• Develop targeted outreach to new [state] residents

• Explore and identify new revenue sources (taxes, royalties, fees)

• Offer “see and experience” wildlife tours

• Develop and provide resources for enhanced emergency management planning

To increase utility, these generic strategies need to be specified in terms of their scope, schedule, and budget. Using the four windtunneled generic strategies from Fish and Wildlife Agency as an example, the outcome looks like this:

STRATEGY ITEM 1: Develop targeted outreach to new [state] residents by creating customized lists of new residents and connecting to state resource databases. This will be a heavy resource draw on the marketing team.

SCOPE: Within six months, develop 10 connections or partnerships with state resources to track incoming new residents.

SCHEDULE: Within one year, have marketing send materials to all new state residents (new within the last 12 months).

BUDGET: Allocate 10 percent of the budget to support the marketing team in the development of new marketing materials, and allocate 5 percent of the budget to support developing contacts within the state system.

STRATEGY ITEM 2: Explore and identify new revenue sources (taxes, royalties, fees).

SCOPE: Within six months, identify five new potential revenue sources in the tax, royalties, and fees categories.

SCHEDULE: Within one year, secure at least two new funding sources accounting for at least 20 percent of current revenues.

BUDGET: Allocate 5 percent of the budget to support the identification of at least five new revenue sources.

STRATEGY ITEM 3: Offer “see and experience” wildlife tours.

SCOPE: Within six months, be able to offer five “see and experience” wildlife tours in which agency employees guide members of the public in unique wildlife experiences.

SCHEDULE: Within one year, offer these five experiences at least twice per quarter.

BUDGET: Allocate 10 percent of the budget to support the identification of at least five new revenue sources.

STRATEGY ITEM 4: Develop and provide resources for enhanced emergency management planning.

SCOPE: Within six months, double the availability of personal protective equipment for hospital workers and create a staffing plan for hospital use surges.

SCHEDULE: Within one year, have enough stock of personal protective equipment and staffing plans to accommodate a major disaster.

BUDGET: Allocate 10 percent of the budget to secure additional supplies required for disaster preparation.

Attaching scope, schedule, and budget requirements to strategy items immediately makes them more actionable.

Workshop Format and Guidelines: Adjusting Windtunneled Strategies for a Strategic Plan

Time: 2–4 hours.

Participants: 5–15.

Assumptions: You have outputs from chapter 6 (generic strategies, opportunities and threats, and/or adapt, mitigate, and thrive strategies).

Workshop Format: Assemble the scenario team and gather your strategies.

Instructions:

• Using the outputs from any of the exercises in chapter 6 (generic strategies, opportunities and threats, or adapt, mitigate, and thrive), consolidate and specify the list of common useful strategies across the scenarios.

• Finalize a manageable number of strategies (15 or fewer recommended).

• Windtunnel the strategies to find the most useful strategies across the set of scenarios.

• Clarify the scope, schedule, and budget for each item.

Summary

This chapter has explained how to use scenarios as wind tunnels to test strategies. The concept of windtunneling was described and examples were provided. The examples show you how to take your strategies through the set of scenarios in order to determine a set of strategies that work across all scenarios. The final part of this chapter showed how to make your final strategies more precise, measurable, and actionable. Using these processes and tools connects scenarios to strategies in important ways that are essential for advancing both fields.