CHAPTER 3
The Project Complexity Model
“Complexity, the poetry of what we know, and what we don’t.”
—GERALD MULENBURG, PhD
SENIOR ANALYST, NASA AMES RESEARCH CENTER
“As we know,
There are knowns and unknowns.
There are known-knowns.
These are the things we know we know.
We also know there are known-unknowns.
That is to say, there are some things we know we do not know.
But there are also unknown-unknowns.
These are things that we don’t know we don’t know.”
—DONALD RUMSFELD, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Webster’s Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary tells us that complexity is characterized by a complicated or involved arrangement of many interconnected parts, units, etc., and that the situation is so complicated or intricate as to be hard to understand or deal with. In this chapter we explore the characteristics of highly complex projects and introduce our Project Complexity Model, which project leaders can use to diagnose the various facets and levels of complexity on a particular project.
THE NATURE OF PROJECT COMPLEXITY
The jury is still out: There is no widely accepted definition of project complexity that is research-based and therefore defensible.1 The project management industry seems to be taking the stand that “You will know it when you see it.” We do, however, have a good understanding of some of the sources of project complexity:2
Details: number of variables and interfaces- Ambiguity: lack of awareness of events and causality
- Uncertainty: inability to pre-evaluate actions
- Unpredictability: inability to know what will happen
- Dynamics: rapid rate of change
- Social structure: numbers and types of interactions.
We will not attempt to put forth an authoritative definition of project complexity; we leave that to the academics. However, the consensus in the industry is that a project that consists of many moving parts that are interdependent should be treated as complex. Project managers also agree that our failure to understand the complexity of the product or the project often leads us to project failure,3 as does our inability to recognize uncertainty. Many authors stress the relationship between how well-defined goals are and how certain the methods of achieving the goals are, suggesting different managerial techniques depending on the uncertainties.4 Others postulate that the element of urgency present on so many projects today adds its own element of complexity and stress.
IT projects are almost always complex and difficult to manage. One common source of that complexity is that IT projects often begin with limited information, when the business benefits to be achieved and what is needed to achieve them are not yet known. Another problem arises when scope is added during the development process simply because we were unable to define all requirements initially. If evaluation of what is needed and how to achieve it can be accomplished for other types of complex projects, why not for IT projects?
Models are beginning to emerge to help us understand the nature of project complexity. Two such models that are receiving a lot of attention at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are the UCP model (Uncertainty, Complexity, and Pace) and the NCTP model (Novelty, Complexity, Technology, and Pace), developed by Dr. Aaron J. Shenhar and colleagues. These dimensions help the project team identify where to focus its efforts5 and give us a glimpse into the most challenged areas of modern projects.
Figure 3-1 presents the key elements of the theoretical UCP model and the practical NCTP “Diamond” model. Both of these models blend the elements of uncertainty and complexity with speed.
FIGURE 3-1. Theoretical UCP Model and Practical NCTP “Diamond” Model6
Building on existing research, we will explore what we believe is a widely accepted set of the dimensions of project complexity. The ability to identify, or “diagnose,” some or all of the complexity dimensions on a project informs the project leadership team members as they make decisions about how to manage the various aspects of the project.
INTRODUCING THE PROJECT COMPLEXITY MODEL
Our Project Complexity Model captures the dimensions of project complexity—those characteristics that make a project unpredictable and dynamic. Depending on which dimensions apply to a particular project, the project leadership team should consider using particular project management tools, methods, and approaches.
Traditional project management tools and techniques remain quite valid, and emerging methods to manage project complexity are proving to be effective as well. The trick is to determine which approaches and interventions to apply when. Our approach seeks to add value to the project by affording the project team the ability to adapt to developing information and changes in the environment and to fine tune the project methods accordingly.
The Project Complexity Model presented in Table 3-1 offers a framework for identifying and diagnosing the elements of complexity on a particular project so that the project team can make appropriate management decisions. The model captures a number of dimensions of project complexity, including project time and value; team size and composition; urgency; schedule, cost, and scope flexibility; clarity of the problem and solution; stability of requirements; strategic importance; stakeholder influence; level of organizational and commercial change; external constraints and dependencies; political sensitivity; and unproven technology.
USING THE PROJECT COMPLEXITY MODEL
Before examining the model, it is important to understand that relatively small, short-duration projects might be highly complex because they exhibit dimensions of complexity that have nothing to do with size, e.g., the level of change required within both the business and technical communities. In the case of large-scale organizational change, deployment across multicultural groups can make the project complex even if the new business solution is relatively straightforward. The model is meant to be applied in its entirety, considering the confluence and interaction of numerous dimensions.
To use the model to diagnose the complexity of a particular project, shade the boxes that best describe your project and apply the complexity formula presented in Table 3-2. Note that not all conditions described in a box need to be present; shade only the one cell in each row that best describes your project. While the model can be used on all project types, we designed it to best fit typical projects in the business environment.
TABLE 3-1. Project Complexity Model
TABLE 3-2. Project Complexity Formula
| Highly Complex | Moderately Complex | Independent |
|---|---|---|
| Level of change = large-scale enterprise impacts or Both the problem and the solution are difficult to define or understand, and the solution is difficult to achieve. The solution is likely to use unproven technologies. or Four or more categories in the “highly complex” column |
Two or more categories in the “moderately complex” column or One category in the “highly complex” column and three or more in the “moderately complex” column |
No more than one category in the “moderately complex” column and No categories in the “highly complex” column |
RATIONALE FOR THE PROJECT COMPLEXITY MODEL
The Project Complexity Model is robust, encompassing the priorities emphasized in the Standish Group’s Recipe for Project Success: The CHAOS Ten as well as the best practices presented in the nine knowledge areas of the PMBOK® Guide: scope, time, cost, integration, procurement, quality, communication, risk, and human resource management.7
Several variations of project assessment models are available in the project management literature. In their Project Sizing Grid, for example, David Hill-son and Peter Simon8 present four levels of project characteristics to arrive at an overall project risk rating. Depending on whether the project is considered small, medium, or large, the appropriate level of risk management activities can be determined.
Another model is Gregory Garrett’s Project Complexity Assessment Tool?.9 Garrett uses five levels of project complexity characteristics (low, low-to-medium, medium, medium-to-high, and high) to extrapolate the level of project complexity and thereby determine the level of project management rigor that is needed to achieve success.
We have chosen to use a clear-cut three-tiered model for simplicity and ease of use. Referencing the model, some may argue that a project needs to be much longer in duration than six months or much larger in value than $750K to be considered complex. However, we have chosen these tolerances based on project performance statistics that clearly indicate that projects of this size involving new or changed IT systems are complex and challenging. Standish CHAOS research shows that we have been able to improve performance by reducing project duration and resource levels. Our approach is consistent with the Recipe for Project Success put forth by The Standish Group International in 1999 and updated in 2001 (depicted in Table 3-3).10 The message is clear: Size matters; less is more.
TABLE 3-3. Standish Group Recipe for Project Success
| Ingredients | Clear business objective; minimized scope (microprojects with rigorous configuration management); communication and collaboration; proven, standard, stable software infrastructure (versus custom code); firm basic requirements; formal methodology; reliable estimates |
| Mix with | Full-time, co-located core team members (experienced business analyst, project manager, business visionary, architects, and developers) coached by an involved executive project sponsor |
| Bake | No longer than six months; no more than six people; no more than $750,000 (1999) No longer than four months; no more than four people; no more than $500,000 (2001) |
VISUALIZING PROJECT COMPLEXITY
To communicate the nature of the complexities on your project, it is helpful to create a visual to accompany the tabular version of the model depicting overall project complexity by developing a “spider chart.” The example in Figure 3-2 depicts a project that is highly complex based the team composition, urgent need, requirements volatility, political sensitivity, and level of organizational change.
FIGURE 3-2. Spider Chart Depicting Overall Project Complexity
Figure 3-3 presents a view of the Project Complexity Model that incorporates the concept of program management. A program is a group of related projects that exhibit varying degrees of complexity. As you diagnose the complexity of each project within the program, it is wise to focus on the high-risk, highly complex projects first to ensure that their risks and complexities can be managed before time and resources are invested on the less complex projects.
FIGURE 3-3. Project and Program Complexity Model
WHEN TO APPLY COMPLEXITY THINKING TO PROJECTS
The Project Complexity Model can be used to guide the management of complex projects during many phases of the project life cycle. Take your project leadership team through the analysis recommended in the remaining sections of this book to apply complexity thinking to the major decisions you make about your project. Specifically, determine which project complexity management approaches to adopt when you are:
- Preparing the business case for a new project proposal
- Initiating and planning a new project
- Initiating and planning a new major phase of a project Recovering a troubled project
- Initiating and planning a new program
- Recovering troubled projects within a program.
HOW TO APPLY COMPLEXITY THINKING TO PROJECTS
“Fools ignore complexity,
Pragmatists suffer it,
Some can avoid it,
Geniuses remove it.”
—ALAN PERUS, AMERICAN COMPUTER SCIENTIST
For 21st century projects, it is important that the leadership team clearly understand the level of complexity and then apply a management approach that is commensurate with the project’s complexity dimensions. Applying complexity thinking to projects involves selecting appropriate methods and techniques, assigning project leadership based on the project profile and complexity dimensions, and building complex, adaptive business solutions that are amenable to change as business needs evolve. The three steps in this process are listed below and are discussed in detail in the remaining parts of this book.
STEP 1: ASSIGN PROJECT LEADERS BASED ON THE PROJECT PROFILE
Projects sometimes fail because of an inappropriate match of project leadership to the level of project complexity. The project manager, business analyst, lead IT architect and developer, and business visionary are four critical project leadership positions. Once the project’s complexity level and dimensions are understood, organizations should use this vital information to make project leadership assignments, as described in Part II.
STEP 2: SELECT THE PROJECT CYCLE BASED ON THE PROJECT PROFILE
Based on the project profile diagnosed using the Project Complexity Model, the project team determines the appropriate project cycle to use, as described in Part III. All projects have a cycle, or a sequence of stages through which the project passes. Typical cycles have a series of periods and phases, each with a defined output that guides research, development, construction, and acquisition of goods and services.11 As projects have become more complex, project cycles have evolved to address the various levels of complexity.
STEP 3: SELECT APPROPRIATE MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES BASED ON COMPLEXITY DIMENSIONS
Projects sometimes fail because of the misapplication of good management methods and techniques. In Part IV, we discuss the application of complexity thinking to determine the appropriate techniques to use based on the complexity dimensions present. Successful managers of complex projects become situational project managers by adapting their leadership style and the project management, software engineering, and business analysis methods they use to deal with the project’s complexity dimensions.
Most 21st century business projects are highly complex, involving lots of interrelationships, nested systems within systems, and changing requirements. Using a comprehensive Project Complexity Model to diagnose the complexity of a particular project and making managerial decisions accordingly will greatly increase your chances of project success. We propose using the Project Complexity Model as a framework to inform your decisions and communicate about your project when you are:
- Assigning key project team members
- Selecting the project cycle
- Selecting appropriate management techniques based on complexity dimensions.
NOTES
1. S. Jonathan Whitty and Harvey Maylor, “And Then Came Complex Project Management,” presented at the 21st IPMA World Congress on Project Management (February 2007). Online at http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/eserv.php?pid=UQ:13419&dsID=And_then_came_Complex_Project_Management.pdf (accessed January 2008).
2. Jerry Mulenburg, “What Does Complexity Have to Do With It? Complexity and the Management of Projects,” From the proceedings of the 2008 NASA Project Management Challenge Conference (2008).
3. Terry Williams, Modelling Complex Projects (West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2002), 49.
4. Ibid., 55.
5. Aaron Shenhar and Dov Dvir, Reinventing Project Management: The Diamond Approach to Successful Growth and Innovation (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2007), 15, 222.
6. Aaron J. Shenhar, “Building a Strategic System Approach to NASA’s Project and Program Management,” Phase I Final Report: Identifying NASA-Specific Strategic Project Types (December 2004).
7. Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Third Edition (Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute, 2004).
8. David Hillson and Peter Simon, Practical Project Risk Management: The ATOM Methodology (Vienna, VA: Management Concepts, 2007), 29.
9. Gregory A. Garrett, Managing Complex Outsourced Projects (Chicago: CCH Incorporated, 2004), 72.
10. The Standish Group International, Inc., “CHAOS: A Recipe for Success,” Extreme CHAOS (1999).
11. Hal Mooz, Kevin Forsberg and Howard Cotterman, Communicating Project Management (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2003), 259.
CONCLUSION TO PART I
Although our ability to manage complex, large-scale projects is improving, we clearly must find new ways to dramatically improve project performance if we are to remain competitive in the global marketplace. To enable us to adapt to the change that is all around us, project management experts and leaders are exploring the concepts of complexity theory as a complement to conventional project management approaches.
AARON J. SHENHAR and DOV DVIR
Reinventing Project Management1
The critical questions are these: Can we help project teams make the right assessment before presenting their project proposals to management? Can we show executives how to ask the right questions and foresee danger before they make a commitment to a project and before it is too late? And can we guide project teams in adapting their project management style to circumstances, environment, and task? It seems that managers at all levels need a new framework and a new language to communicate with each other about projects.
NOTE
1. Aaron Shenhar and Dov Dvir, Reinventing Project Management: The Diamond Approach to Successful Growth and Innovation (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2007), 8.