Although views held by the public and the conditions imposed by governments varied around the world, there were general patterns emerging. It was accepted that those in the worst-hit countries, trying to deal with a spike in deaths from the virus, lived in a more precarious situation, which also added to the general feeling of confusion.
How the Pandemic Was Viewed in 2020
Going back through statements made internationally during the first six months of 2020, we can see how confused everyone was about COVID-19 and how serious it was for the population of all ages. Table 2.1 summarizes the statements made in the press during the first half of 2020.
By June 2020, millions of jobs were at risk in hospitality and travel sectors, and the USTA stated that a third of all jobs lost in the United States was in the travel industry. As borders closed and lockdowns began on a massive scale, everyone was confused about what rules and regulations applied to them in their location. As the focus was on saving lives, with people largely confined to their own home, a financial disaster was inevitable.
Bad loans already totaled £2.1 billion in the United Kingdom alone, there was an estimated £105 billion of unsustainable business debt, and household spending had dropped by more than 40 percent. The statement by Robert Chote from the Office for Budget Responsibility that “the economy is over the worst of the crisis” (despite it shrinking by 35 percent already) was clearly a bit optimistic!
From the middle of 2020 until the early part of 2022, there were more developments as we saw spikes in the rates of infections and deaths from COVID-19 and governments tried to find ways to deal with the ongoing pandemic.
Table 2.1 Public statements quoted directly in many newspapers and TV broadcasts
February 2020 | World Health Organization (WHO) refused to declare the crisis a “pandemic” despite the growing death toll, but even at this early point U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned it was a case of “when” not “if” it would be seen as a pandemic. By February 28, 2020, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reported that “This virus has pandemic potential, we’re at a decisive point” |
| Countries that reported their first cases included Norway, Greece, Brazil, Algeria, and the United Kingdom. Italy was identified as a “Danger Zone” as 12 had died but numbers were rising rapidly |
| Vulnerable groups were identified as those with existing medical conditions and those over 70 as they were likely to suffer the most severe effects; 15% of those over 80 years old who got the virus died, but at that time no children had died |
| Patterns were starting to emerge as more men than women died from the virus |
| By February 27, there were over 81,000 cases reported and 2,771 deaths. However, in the United Kingdom, the government stated that “If a pandemic is declared here [we are] unlikely to close borders, stop mass gatherings, shut down public transport” |
March 2020 | Emergency Nightingale hospitals were being set up to cater for a surge in the number of COVID cases and it was accepted that this was “a significant challenge” and the “worst public health crisis in a generation” |
| The public was shocked to see images of exhausted hospital staff lying asleep on the corridor floors, and shortages in PPE were being reported globally |
| First lockdown announced in the United Kingdom; U.K. furlough (CJRS) scheme introduced |
| German short-time working allowance covered 10 million workers; U.S. FPUC scheme paid more than 30 million workers; in France, the Chomage Partiel scheme covered workers unable to work; Ireland had a temporary wage subsidy scheme |
April 2020 | In the United Kingdom, 413 deaths were recorded in one day and the total deaths there were 20,732. Many of these were paramedics, care home staff, postal workers, and police officers, and at least 20 bus drivers had died |
| By the end of April, it was identified that people of color and those from minority ethnic groups (in the United Kingdom) were dying at a greater rate than the rest of the population. However, this was not just a straightforward statistic as poverty was a critical factor—poor white people were also dying at a greater rate than the general population |
| Lockdown was still in place as it was seen as too risky to ease restrictions yet |
| UBS believed 20% independent eateries would close permanently |
There had been 26,771 deaths in the United Kingdom at the beginning of May, 28,446 by May 4, and 31,241 by the end of the week; 12 children had died from the virus, 66% of deaths had been men, with most fatalities in those aged 20–64 years | |
| It was identified that those in lower-skilled jobs were four times more likely to die from the virus, and security operatives or taxi/cab drivers were five times more likely to die if they caught the virus |
| Countries with the most deaths at this time were the United States around 68,000; the United Kingdom and Italy nearly 29,000; France with more than 24,000 |
| Germany had a spike of 300 new cases among meat factory workers. The latest outbreak in South Korea was traced back to a nightclub |
| Surprisingly, WHO chief scientist stated that shops and schools could “safely” reopen now as the “experts know how to keep coronavirus under control.” However, they later stated the pandemic was far from over with 106,000 new cases reported in the previous 24 hours |
| There had been no big outbreaks in schools around the world, but Germany found that 4,000 coronavirus patients and children were infected so no schools were opened. Infection rates were growing in Latin America with Brazil in third place for the number of confirmed cases worldwide |
| There were positive results from the United States concerning the vaccine it was developing |
| In Germany, the number of confirmed cases rose to 160,758 with 6,481 deaths. It had hoped to open large venues and visitor attractions such as galleries and zoos but decided to put this on hold |
| Despite the growing number of cases and deaths, there were still people refusing to believe it was a pandemic (“just a cold or the normal flu they said”) with demonstrations against continuing lockdown. Note that Sweden now had the worst death rate per million in the world as they said no to any lockdown |
| The number of deaths in the United Kingdom was now the highest in Europe and it was noted that clearly this was not a short-term crisis but “large epidemic waves” could be expected in the future |
June 2020 | By June, the CDC in the United States was saying that numbers of hospitalizations and infection rates were reducing, so feeding the impression that the worst of the pandemic might be over |
| USTA stated $500 billion cumulative losses for the United States; a third of jobs lost in the country were in travel industry (USTA); Washington Post referred to “Revenge Travel” as belief in reducing threat to safety |
| Hawaii and Maine required 14 days quarantine for visitors on arrival |
| Traffic light system introduced in the United Kingdom to list safe destinations |
| Crime rates reduced by around 25%; sharp rise in domestic violence cases |
Table 2.2 Public statements about the impact of the pandemic
November 2020 | Threat seen as greater to the country than the individual |
| Lockdowns reintroduced worldwide; U.K. lockdown ended beginning December but other restrictions still in force. Tier systems introduced |
| 90% of event planners had lost some or all of their business; 21% believed smaller meetings would be the most common in the future |
| During 2020, 6 million cruise passengers compared with 30 million in 2019 |
January 2021 | England in third lockdown |
February 2021 | NASA released images of reduced emissions in China during lockdowns |
| SAGA holidays required all passengers to have had both vaccines |
Spring 2021 | German nationals were allowed to travel to other European countries |
| Nonessential shops and services allowed to reopen |
| Table service only in bars and restaurants |
| Free lateral flow tests widely available in the United Kingdom |
| Tourists started to travel across county/state borders even if from high-risk areas |
| Lockdowns reintroduced |
| USTA stated business travel would not recover until 2024; business travel spending down 76%—$97 billion loss |
July 2021 | Bookings in the United Kingdom for trips overseas were 65% higher than June as Amber List destinations announced; 40% rise in bookings for Croatia and Malta (on safe list) and around a third for Sri Lanka and Maldives (on red list) |
| ABTA said bookings were down 83% for summer 2021 |
August 2021 | Cases continued to rise despite restrictions; a third wave of infections due to new Delta variant; a spike over 3 weeks as businesses reopened. People asked to return to working from home |
| 200 million people affected by COVID-19 by August 2021 |
September 2021 | ONS coronavirus survey showed the highest number of deaths per 100,000 in Peru and other South American countries |
| Surge in U.S. business travel demand (ADARA) |
| U.K. CJRS scheme ended |
December 2021 | The U.K. government lifted restrictions to allow people to celebrate Christmas and New Year (not the response in other countries). No return to workplace in the United Kingdom |
| Half of U.K. consumers shop online for nonfood products; 37% U.S. consumers do so |
Spike in infections, especially from the new Omicron variant—the highest rates of infection than in previous waves of the pandemic. No testing required if fully vaccinated when entering the United Kingdom | |
| Facebook usage “plateaued”; Facebook use by teenagers dropped dramatically |
| ABTA reports increase in bookings for 2022 and 2023 |
February 2022 | The United States had seen 78 million cases, over 900,000 deaths; India 42 million cases, 500,000 deaths; the United Kingdom 18 million cases, 158,318 deaths (the highest number of deaths in western Europe) |
March 2022 | All restrictions lifted by the U.K. government as seen to be entering endemic rather than pandemic phase |
| The United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan still not on the “white” list for entry to European countries so visitors still need to complete Passenger Locator Form on entry |
The Initial Impact on Tourism and Hospitality
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) presented an alarming picture when looking back at the impact of the pandemic in the first few months (ONS February 2021). They show that:
• Air passenger arrivals to the United Kingdom fell from 6,804,900 in February 2020 to 112,300 in April 2020, a fall of 98.3 percent. We soon got used to seeing pictures of deserted airport terminals around the world (Figure 2.1).
• Greater London had just 20 percent of rooms occupied in July 2020 compared with 90 percent in July 2019.
• Accommodation and travel agency businesses saw the sharpest decline in turnover, and employment in these industries fell by a fifth when compared with the year before.
• The biggest drop in employment across the sector was for those aged 25 to 34 working full-time, closely followed by the 16- to 24-year-old group working part-time, compared with the same peak holiday season in 2019.
• In April 2020, the number of people traveling via Eurotunnel was 91.3 percent lower than the same period in 2019.
Figure 2.1 Airport terminals deserted
Across food and hospitality businesses, new options such as drive-through and takeaways were being trialed, although this was not a realistic option for many. In America, Ann Hsing of Pasjoli and Dialogue restaurants in Los Angeles stated that “the food we do, we learned very quickly on the first day, is not very translatable to takeout” as they include an 18- to 22-course tasting menu.
At the same time, a well-known bar in New York, Amor y Amargo, closed as one of the smaller establishments that had limited ability to ride out long-term cash flow problems. This scenario was predicted by investment bank UBS as early as April 2020, believing that around 20 percent of independent eating places were likely to stay closed because it would be too difficult to get started again. There may be fewer mid-range restaurants that survive long-term closure due to lockdown requirements, although it is not clear whether this will be the picture for more high-end establishments.
The hospitality industry was following guidance, trying to reduce close contact for customers with tables set out two meters apart and separated with Perspex screens. In New York, they allowed park visitors to sit in set-out socially distanced circles. The confidence of travelers to book trips depended on two main criteria: having the COVID-19 vaccine, stated by 47 percent of those surveyed (Global Rescue), and the reopening of borders for 34 percent, closely followed by feeling secure that they could get home in an emergency. There was a tentative start with Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, and Germany planning “controlled” opening in the early part of 2020, with Portugal, France, and Netherlands planning to reopen in June 2020.
Despite the continuing risks from the virus, and indeed the number of deaths in different parts of the world, airlines were starting to open some routes and people had started to travel. As the countries willing to allow visitors to arrive increased, there were still restrictions in many of them. Some businesses were still closed, masks were obligatory, and there were still some places that required long quarantine periods on arrival, so this was not a return to any version of “normal.”
By the end of the first year of the pandemic, people’s perceptions of the threat from COVID-19 had been quite stable for a while, certainly since June 2020. The threat was seen as greater to “the country” than to the individual, although it is not clear how this was defined. Around a quarter of the population was concerned about the financial impact, and this view continued until February 2021 and by now, 20 percent said they were worried they would struggle to pay their bills in a month’s time.
How the Pandemic Was Viewed in 2021
Go forward to Spring 2021 when things started to change, the most restrictive rules were relaxed, and people were allowed to travel further—see more details in Table 2.2. In Germany, for instance, they were allowed to travel to other European countries for a holiday/vacation. Previously closed, nonessential shops and services were now allowed to reopen. Hospitality businesses could take visitors and were expected to minimize the risks to guests while “not knowingly” accepting those in breach of existing travel restrictions. How they were supposed to deal with this issue was not clear.
In the United Kingdom, guidance for tourism and hospitality was produced, clearly intended to cover every eventuality though not necessarily practicable for the smallest businesses. There were more detailed guidelines to follow for those based in Wales, the United Kingdom:
Businesses should also consider, where appropriate:
• Strengthening their policy on safe disposal of face coverings for staff and visitors;
• Introducing measures for staff and visitors, on arrival, such as taking temperature tests, asking people to sanitize their hands, and asking questions around whether they are displaying any symptoms;
• Considering the flow of guests/visitors and how to avoid any household mixing by keeping guests/visitors apart as they move around the premises throughout their visit/stay, with particular regard to enclosed public areas such as lifts, stairs, and corridors;
• Instructing guests/visitors to move through enclosed public areas as quickly as possible, and to avoid shouting or singing in such areas;
• Within accommodation, ensuring that guests keep the doors to their rooms closed at all times, apart from when entering and leaving;
• Staggering room service/laundry delivery and so on to rooms, to avoid guests opening doors and coming out at the same time;
• Reviewing their incident and emergency procedures to ensure they reflect the physical distancing principles as far as possible, including considering how to minimize household mixing when congregating in fire assembly areas.
As you can see, the responsibility for controlling the virus at this level was shifted to the individual business. In addition, for food and drink businesses, it was to be table service only, with no customers ordering or standing at the counter in a bar or pub. As outdoor venues could also reopen now, these measures were intended to “help the hospitality sector recover after a difficult 12 months” (Drakeford).
There was growing concern that as many as one in three could have COVID-19 without showing any symptoms, so the free lateral flow tests became more widely available. The vaccination program started to spread rapidly across regions, and people then began to see the threat level for coronavirus fall. In some local areas, there were still concerns about the impact on personal finances and whether they could pay their bills after the next month. Wealthier areas did not feel the negative impact so much, of course, but those living in the lower wage, poorer parts of the world would inevitably feel the strain.
International travel was still difficult, with extra safeguards introduced, though not consistently across all regions. Different views emerged about how safe people felt when traveling depending on whether other travelers had produced a negative COVID-19 test result or had received the vaccine dose(s). There was mistrust about how good the testing facilities were and how confident they could actually be in a negative result. This is not the same as having the vaccine which prevented you from contracting the virus in the first place (though not 100 percent effective).
Even more difficult was the range of testing requirements before traveling home, with each country devising its own set of rules. Lack of cohesive approach meant you might need a PCR test within 72 hours of returning home, but no guidance on where to get it or how to get the results in time. Finding a test center in a foreign country, one that was open and able to get the results back to you in the time limit, was an added level of stress for all travelers and, in some cases, just impossible.
It was vital to show visitors that everything was being done to ensure they were safe on the journey and once they reached their destination. However, by the end of May, people were becoming worried by the number of visitors traveling across country/county borders from places with high rates of infection into those with much lower rates.
In the United States, consultancy firm Longwoods International stressed that local residents also needed to feel safe and to see that visitors followed the rules in their region. This was certainly an issue in the United Kingdom, for example, where press and TV news coverage showed crowds of tourists at popular holiday resorts, having traveled from COVID hotspots into Wales where stricter travel restrictions had been imposed for longer and rates of infection were low.
If you were working in tourism and hospitality, this presented even more of a dilemma trying to balance the need to keep your business going with the real danger of infection spread. The request for visitors to self-test before traveling, and every two days while they were there, was clearly unenforceable, especially as the government was putting the responsibility onto accommodation providers—again—to notify guests of the rules when booking. Further unenforceable guidance said that guests testing positive should then go back home by the most direct route, but not by public transport—a difficult option if they had arrived by train?
The ongoing survey by the Direct Marketing Association (DMA) in March 2021 showed a range of positive views for businesses going forward but full recovery was not likely in the short term. At the same time, the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey (CIS) had been in place for a year, providing useful data for governments and business leaders. As you can see from Figures 2.2 to 2.4, there were striking differences between the numbers of deaths and death rates in different regions (John Hopkins University).
While the columns (Series 1 in each Chart) show the total number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 for each country, the line (Series 2 in each Chart) clearly shows the death rate per 100,000 during January 2020 to September 2021. This was a significant point in the spread of the pandemic as we now saw it as an ongoing situation rather than a short-term “inconvenience.” The charts also emphasize how the impact differed across nations and the full extent of infections and death rates for the local population, in some cases lower numbers of deaths but much higher rates overall.
Figure 2.2 Global deaths and death rates Northern Europe
Figure 2.3 Global deaths and death rate Eastern Europe
Figure 2.4 Global deaths and death rate South America
The alarming rate of deaths per 100,000 in Peru, and in some of the other countries in South America, showed how those countries with lower population numbers tended to have the worst outcomes once the virus reached them. Although there were high numbers of deaths reported in Brazil and Mexico, as well as Russia and Turkey in eastern Europe, for instance, the high population numbers mean that the overall death rate does not appear as extreme.
At this point in 2021, most of the businesses surveyed reported that they were still negatively impacted by the virus, though 63 percent stated they were seeing some signs of recovery.
Changes in the Way People Booked Trips
Other surveys started to see changes in the way potential travelers searched for and booked trips. In July, ADARA noted that U.K. bookings for trips abroad were the highest for the year as the “Amber List” destinations were announced. As this meant those who were fully vaccinated no longer had to go into quarantine on arrival back home, bookings surged. Once the announcement was made, bookings went up 23 percent in a day, were up 36 percent from the beginning of July, and were 65 percent higher than the month before.
The number of COVID-19 cases continued to rise despite the success of vaccination programs and the ongoing travel or meeting restrictions still in place. Perceptions of the level of threat was at a low point but by September, 25 percent believed they would not be able to pay bills in a month’s time. There was still a substantial base of people struggling financially during the pandemic but note other sources that give a different picture. Solo Travel magazine, in 2021, found 71 percent of its survey participants said the pandemic had no impact on their financial ability to travel, with 14 percent saying they now had more funds available.
A third wave of infections was seen around August 2021, mainly due to the Delta variant (ONS). Numbers were increasing again, with a significant spike over a period of three weeks as businesses started to reopen and people were returning to the workplace. There was then another push for people to return to working from home if possible—confusing and conflicting guidance again over a brief period.
At the end of 2021, threats posed to the individual were believed to be quite low but, by now, there was growing concern that the threat to the country as a whole was greater than previously thought. With pressure from various industrial and political sources, there was a call to remove restrictions in the United Kingdom and allow people to celebrate Christmas and New Year. The government conceded even though the removal of all restrictions was not the response in other countries. As expected, given this short-term freedom, the number of infections and deaths continued to rise with the new Omicron variant rampant. However, the rates can be misleading as those who were infected were not as seriously ill as with the previous strains, and the high number of hospitalizations did not represent high rates in intensive care units (ICUs) as they had done previously.