8

Recommendations

Limitations

Due to paucity of time and resource constraints, the authors have predominantly relied on secondary sources of data on the Internet. Data on Afghanistan was sketchy, time series data was not readily available and specific instances of how people are coping with the onslaught on common property resources, although available, could not be collected and incorporated in the book in time. These limitations shall be overcome in the future volumes. The section on responses to pressures and state needs to be strengthened by discussions with policy makers.

Problems Encountered

The authors had decided to organize the data around the pressure-state-response (PSR) model. A set of indicators for each subject was developed. During data collection two problems were encountered: (a) Consolidated data for South Asia was not available on most indicators and (b) Data on many key indicators was not available from country sources. The first problem was dealt with by gathering country-wise data and its consolidation into South Asia database. The problem of data gap is discussed below.

Specific Data Gaps

The specific subject-wise data gaps are listed below with brief notes on their importance.

Chapter 2: Energy

Data on energy is deficient and this was confirmed by energy expert Dr Colin Campbell in his communication with the authors. First, up-to-date and accurate data on reserves, production and consumption of oil, gas and coal is not available. To get around the problem, the authors requested industry experts to provide their inputs and they gave their best estimates. Because of the strategic nature of energy data, nearly all countries have fudged the records and that includes all Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) countries. We are also not sure of coal reserves in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh because accurate date, when reserves were assessed, is not available; nor do we have accurate estimates on extraction because of reported and well-known fact of illegal coal mining.

On the demand side, authors relied on published data from various government and international organizations but the problem was one of comparability and reliability. Most international organizations depend upon government data. Also, while some data on electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) losses are available, similar data on oil and coal loss (wastivity) is not available.

The following data is urgently required to assess sector-wise and region-wise dependence on primary and secondary energy sources.

1. Tons of oil equivalent (TOE) sector-wise demand/TOE demand by industry
2. TOE demand for food production/TOE demand by country
3. Total electricity demand (TED) from agriculture/TED by country
4. TED from food retailing/TED by country
5. Total food calories consumed/Total energy demand in calories (For example, in the USA 10 calories of oil energy is required to move one calorie of food energy)
6. TOE demand from metropolitan areas/TOE by country
7. Domestic electricity demand/Total electricity demand for rural and urban areas
8. Urban population within 500 metres of public transport system/Total urban population
9. Population served by railway/Total population
10. Rate of energy wastivity/Total energy available

Chapter 3: Biodiversity

While writing on biodiversity, a major problem pertained to definition of forest. Each country has its own definition of forest and within each country different agencies use this term in different ways. How the extent of forest is measured also varies from country to country. It is also important that country data on lands given away to various project authorities (energy, SEZ, industry and mining, tourism projects, etc.) are carefully built because many of these projects are located in ecologically sensitive areas. We found that the database around the following indicators is required to be built. Most importantly, since governments are allowing open field trials and commercialization of genetically engineered (GE) crops without public consultations, the level of contamination also needs to be documented.

The following data is, therefore, urgently required:

1. Threatened species/Total endemic species
2. Plantation forests/Total natural forests
3. Number of species contaminated by engineered genes/Total naturally occurring species
4. Total hectares under GE forests/Total hectare under natural forests. Given the fact that genetically engineered species cause trans-specie (horizontal) contamination, it is vital to know the area planted with GE forests
5. Contaminated area/Total land area. This is critical for our survival. Since open-field trials and commercialization of genetically engineered food, feed and fibre crops are being allowed, the extent of contamination must be recorded. For instance, it is known that some degree of contamination exists in 39 countries of the world but we do not know the total contaminated natural species over a given land area.
6. Number of large projects approved in fragile areas/Total projects approved by sector
7. Species assessed for ecological value/Total number of species
8. Loss of diversity due to climate change/Total estimated loss
9. Annual rate of loss of endemic species from cultural activities/Sustainable threshold
10. Percentage of remaining natural area of terrestrial ecosystems to total area
11. Extent of fragmentation of large contiguous ecosystems
12. Degraded wetlands/Total area of recorded wetlands
13. Total area under community-based biodiversity conservation

Chapter 4: Land

The authors observed that few governments have useful time series data on land use. For instance, large villages are turning into semi-urban areas but the rate of conversion of agricultural to urban lands cannot be assessed. The rate of expansion of municipal areas is also sketchy. The special economic zones (SEZs) and special incentive zones (SIZs) exist in most countries but the planned expansion and details on amount of agricultural or forest lands to be acquired is generally not revealed to the public. It is also important for people to know exactly how much land is under the armed forces. Lastly, governments in all South Asian countries have power to acquire lands but very little data is available on what uses acquired lands have been put to. Some governments have acquired lands ostensibly for public purpose but eventually sold it, at huge margin, to private firms, which indicates speculation in real estate by governments themselves. The people have a right to know why farmers were dispossessed, many without any compensation, and what is being done to those lands. This issue is extremely critical because over 55 million people had been dispossessed by 1993 in India alone and millions more will be thrown out of their lands because of planned industrial and military expansion.

The following data gaps were identified:

1. Urban area as per cent of total land area
2. Land lost to industries, land used for accumulation of industrial waste, water pollution, and forest cover lost in industries, mining and river valley projects
3. Combined area under SEZ and SIZ/Total agricultural land
4. Combined area under SEZ and SIZ that were prime agriculture land/ Wastelands available
5. Land acquired for irrigation and hydro-electric projects/Total agriculture land
6. Land acquired for energy projects in the Himalayas/Himalayan land mass
7. Land allocated to armed forces/Total land area (excluding water bodies)
8. Use of mangrove swamps for military and industrial use
9. Industry-wise land allocated for disposal or impounding of waste/Total land area allocated to industries
10. Total unutilized area of land/Total acquired land
11. Total project land now in disuse/Total acquired land
12. Total prime agriculture land/Total acquired land
13. Total fallow land/Total area of private holdings
14. Land area in use/Land acquired for basic services (effective use defined as 100 per cent utilization of lands for the purpose it was acquired)
15. Mapping degradation process

Chapter 5: Water

The most important water resource of South Asia is located in the Himalaya—glaciers. The snowfall in the Himalayas creates glaciers that feed perennial rivers. With the receding of glaciers, perennial rivers are turning seasonal and many have completely dried up. However, the water resource data such as the decline rate of glaciers and the decline in the carrying capacity of rivers are not available.

Database needs to be built around the following indicators:

1. Comparative water use by farming methods (conventional, organic, biodynamic, permaculture, etc.)
2. Urban water demand/Total freshwater demand
3. Detailed sector-wise withdrawal
4. Estimation of wastage in urban area
5. Estimation of wastage in rural areas
6. Number of rivers contaminated with faecal and chemical pollution, level of contamination, mapping and tracking impact of mitigation measures
7. Region-wise disease burden, correlated with contamination level

We also need a matrix of solutions, from community to international level and across points of intervention for tracking policies and impacts over time. Too many institutions are doing too many things, at different levels, without proper coordination.

Figure 8.1 Trends in Death Rates from Leading Causes of Death (1899–2003)

Chapter 6: Atmosphere

Whilst much attention is focused on carbon dioxide (CO₂) and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, virtually no data is available on suspended particulate matter (SPM) over South Asia, and trends and reduction in amount of sunlight reaching the land surface. Most importantly, data on atmospheric radiation from nuclear reactors and use of depleted uranium in Afghanistan needs to be built and tracked over time. This data needs to be developed at South Asia level because impact of radiation is at global level and it is correlated with growth of cancer, diabetes and infant mortality. Attention is drawn to enclosed time series analysis of disease burden due to various factors, mitigation measures and spurt in cancer from a Japanese government study (see Figure 8.1). The composite chart clearly shows the growth in cancer and cardio-vascular diseases due to increased atmospheric radiation from use of nuclear weapons since 1991.

Recommendations

The authors are of the view that national governments and international agencies take into account the data limitations and information gaps highlighted in this book. Given the critical nature of issues discussed, a series of studies may be funded across South Asia. People of South Asia have a right to know what is going on.