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I. GETTING STARTED IN TECHNOLOGY
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I. GETTING STARTED IN TECHNOLOGY
by Andrew Teufel, Brendan Erne, Fisher Investments
Fisher Investments on Technology
Copyright
Foreword
Preface
USING YOUR TECHNOLOGY GUIDE
Acknowledgments
I. GETTING STARTED IN TECHNOLOGY
1. TECHNOLOGY BASICS
1.1. MORE THAN GADGETS . . . A MEANS
1.2. TECHNOLOGY 101
1.3. STARTING SMALL: SEMICONDUCTORS
1.3.1. Types of Semiconductors and End Market Applications
1.3.2. End-Market Applications
1.4. GETTING LARGER: PRODUCTS AND COMPONENTS
1.4.1. Computer Hardware
1.4.2. Communications Equipment
1.4.3. Consumer Electronics
1.5. MAKING IT ALL WORK: SOFTWARE AND SERVICES
1.5.1. Operating System
1.5.2. Application Software
1.5.3. Middleware
1.5.4. Internet Software
1.5.5. IT Services
2. A BRIEF HISTORY OF MODERN TECHNOLOGY
2.1. THE SNOWBALL EVENT: HISTORY OF SEMICONDUCTORS
2.1.1. Eureka! A Half-Way Conductor!
2.1.2. The Dawn of Integrated Circuits
2.1.3. Initial Applications
2.1.4. A Giant in the Making
2.1.5. The Microprocessor
2.1.6. Rise of Japan and Asia
2.1.7. The New Millennium
2.2. HISTORY OF COMPUTERS
2.2.1. Early Origins
2.2.2. Big Blue
2.2.3. The PC
2.2.4. Attack of the Clones
2.2.5. A New Revolution in PC Manufacturing
2.2.6. Upgrade Cycles
2.3. HISTORY OF COMMUNICATIONS
2.3.1. Mobile Phones
2.3.2. Battle for the Top
2.3.3. Smartphones
2.4. HISTORY OF THE INTERNET
2.4.1. Early Origins
2.4.2. Commercialization
2.4.3. The Dot-com Era
2.4.4. The Boom
2.4.5. The Bust
2.4.6. The Aftermath
3. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR DRIVERS
3.1. ECONOMIC DRIVERS
3.1.1. Economic Growth
3.1.2. Fixed Investment
3.1.3. Consumer Spending
3.1.4. Inflation
3.1.5. Share Supply
3.1.6. Innovation & Upgrade Cycles
3.1.7. Exchange Rates
3.2. POLITICAL DRIVERS
3.2.1. Taxes
3.2.2. Intellectual Property Rights
3.2.3. Trade Policy
3.2.4. Industrial Policy
3.3. SENTIMENT DRIVERS
3.3.1. Beta
3.3.2. Professional Market Forecasts
II. NEXT STEPS: TECHNOLOGY DETAILS
4. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR BREAKDOWN
4.1. GLOBAL INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION STANDARD (GICS)
4.2. GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY BENCHMARKS
4.2.1. Differences in Benchmarks
4.2.2. Industry Weights
4.2.3. A Concentrated Group
4.3. TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN
4.3.1. Computers & Peripherals
4.3.2. Communications Equipment
4.3.3. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
4.3.4. Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
4.3.5. IT Services
4.3.6. Internet Software & Services
4.3.7. Office Electronics
5. CHALLENGES IN THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
5.1. PRODUCT MATURITY AND OBSOLESCENCE
5.2. FIGHTING MATURITY AND OBSOLESCENCE
5.2.1. Innovation
5.2.2. Mergers & Acquisitions
5.2.3. New Business Models
5.2.4. Restructuring/Cost Cutting
5.3. EXTREME FLUCTUATIONS IN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
5.3.1. Semiconductors
5.3.2. Semiconductor Equipment
5.4. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY THREATS
5.4.1. Piracy
5.4.2. Competition
6. A DEEPER LOOK AT CURRENT AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
6.1. SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION PROCESS
6.1.1. First Things First—Silicon Wafers
6.1.2. Chip Production Today
6.2. EMERGING MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES
6.2.1. Immersion Lithography
6.2.2. High-k Dielectrics
6.3. COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
6.3.1. Emerging PC Technology—Solid State Drives
6.3.2. Enterprise Storage Technology
6.3.3. Other Notable Emerging Technologies
III. THINKING LIKE A PORTFOLIO MANAGER
7. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
7.1. INVESTING IS A SCIENCE
7.2. EINSTEIN'S BRAIN AND THE STOCK MARKET
7.3. THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
7.3.1. Top-Down Means Thinking 70-20-10
7.3.2. Benchmarks
7.4. TOP-DOWN DECONSTRUCTED
7.4.1. Step 1: Analyze Portfolio Drivers and Country and Sector Selection
7.4.2. Step 2: Quantitative Factor Screening
7.4.3. Strict Criteria
7.4.4. Broad Criteria
7.4.5. Step 3: Stock Selection
7.5. MANAGING AGAINST A TECHNOLOGY BENCHMARK
8. SECURITY ANALYSIS
8.1. MAKE YOUR SELECTION
8.2. A FIVE-STEP PROCESS
8.2.1. Step 1: Understand Business and Earnings Drivers
8.2.2. Step 2: Identify Strategic Attributes
8.2.3. Step 3: Analyze Fundamental and Stock Price Performance
8.2.4. Step 4: Identify Risks
8.2.5. Step 5: Analyze Valuations and Consensus Expectations
8.3. IMPORTANT QUESTIONS TO ASK
8.3.1. Software Industry
8.3.2. Computers & Peripherals Industry
8.3.3. Communications Equipment Industry
8.3.4. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Industry
8.3.5. IT Services Industry
8.3.6. Internet Software & Services Industry
8.3.7. Electronic Equipment & Instruments Industry
8.3.8. Office Electronics Industry
9. UPGRADING YOUR PORTFOLIO—INVESTING STRATEGIES
9.1. STRATEGY 1: ADDING VALUE AT THE SECTOR LEVEL
9.1.1. Implementing Sector Over- and Underweights
9.2. STRATEGY 2: ADDING VALUE AT THE INDUSTRY LEVEL
9.2.1. Implementing Industry Over- and Underweights
9.3. STRATEGY 3: ADDING VALUE AT THE SECURITY LEVEL
9.4. STRATEGY 4: ADDING VALUE IN A TECHNOLOGY SECTOR DOWNTURN
9.4.1. Implementing Your Defensive Strategy
9.5. STRATEGY 5: VENTURE CAPITAL
9.6. GOOD LUCK!
Glossary
Notes
CHAPTER 1: TECHNOLOGY BASICS
CHAPTER 2: A BRIEF HISTORY OF MODERN TECHNOLOGY
CHAPTER 3: TECHNOLOGY SECTOR DRIVERS
CHAPTER 4: TECHNOLOGY SECTOR BREAKDOWN
CHAPTER 5: CHALLENGES IN THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
CHAPTER 6: A DEEPER LOOK AT CURRENT & EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
CHAPTER 7: THE TOP-DOWN METHOD
CHAPTER 9: UPGRADING YOUR PORTFOLIO: INVESTING STRATEGIES
About the Authors
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1. TECHNOLOGY BASICS
Part I. GETTING STARTED IN TECHNOLOGY
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