Home Page Icon
Home Page
Table of Contents for
Contents
Close
Contents
by Charles W. Chase
Next Generation Demand Management
Foreword
Preface
Changing Influences
Automated Consumer Engagement
New World Order
Game Changer
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Chapter 1: The Current State
Why Demand Management Matters More Than Ever
Current Challenges and Opportunities
Primary Obstacles to Achieving Demand Management Planning Goals
Why Do Companies Continue to Dismiss the Value of Demand Management?
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Further Reading
Chapter 2: The Journey
Starting the Supply Chain Journey
Introducing Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) into the Supply Chain Journey
Sales & Operations Planning Connection
Transitioning to a Demand-Driven Supply Chain
The Digitalization of the Supply Chain
Leveraging New Scalable Technology
Benefits
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Chapter 3: The Data
What Is Big Data?
Why Is Downstream Data Important?
Demand Management Data Challenges
CPG Company Case Study
Does Demand History Really Need to Be Cleansed?
How Much Data Should Be Used?
Demand-Signal Repositories
What Is Demand Signal Analytics?
Demand Signal Analytics Key Benefits
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Further Reading
Chapter 4: The Process
Centers of Forecasting Excellence
Demand Management Champion
Demand-Driven Planning
What Is Demand Sensing and Shaping?
A New Paradigm Shift
Large-Scale Automatic Hierarchical Forecasting
Transactional Data
Time Series Data
Forecasting Models
Skill Requirements
Summary
Key Learnings
Further Reading
Chapter 5: Performance Metrics
Why MAPE Is Not Always the Best Metric
Why In-Sample/Out-of-Sample Measurement Is So Important
Forecastability
Forecast Value Added
Ho: Your Forecasting Process Has No Effect
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Further Reading
Chapter 6: The Analytics
Underlying Fundaments of Statistical Models
How Predictable Is the Future?
Importance of Segmentation of Your Products
Consumption-Based Modeling
Consumption-Based Modeling Using Multi-Tiered Causal Analysis
Consumption-Based Modeling Case Study
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Further Reading
Chapter 7: The Demand Planning Brief
Demand Planning Brief
Overview
Background
Recommended Forecast Methodology
Model Hierarchy
Model Selection Criteria
Supporting Information
Analytic Snapshot
Model Selection and Interpretation
Scenario Analysis
Summary
Key Learnings
Chapter 8: The Strategic Roadmap
Current State versus Future State
Current State
Future State
Gaps and Interdependencies
Strategic Roadmap
Summary
Index
End User License Agreement
Search in book...
Toggle Font Controls
Playlists
Add To
Create new playlist
Name your new playlist
Playlist description (optional)
Cancel
Create playlist
Sign In
Email address
Password
Forgot Password?
Create account
Login
or
Continue with Facebook
Continue with Google
Sign Up
Full Name
Email address
Confirm Email Address
Password
Login
Create account
or
Continue with Facebook
Continue with Google
Prev
Previous Chapter
Cover
Next
Next Chapter
Chapter: Wiley & SAS Business Series
Table of Contents
Foreword
Preface
Changing Influences
Automated Consumer Engagement
New World Order
Game Changer
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Chapter 1: The Current State
Why Demand Management Matters More Than Ever
Current Challenges and Opportunities
Primary Obstacles to Achieving Demand Management Planning Goals
Why Do Companies Continue to Dismiss the Value of Demand Management?
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Further Reading
Chapter 2: The Journey
Starting the Supply Chain Journey
Introducing Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) into the Supply Chain Journey
Sales & Operations Planning Connection
Transitioning to a Demand-Driven Supply Chain
The Digitalization of the Supply Chain
Leveraging New Scalable Technology
Benefits
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Chapter 3: The Data
What Is Big Data?
Why Is Downstream Data Important?
Demand Management Data Challenges
CPG Company Case Study
Does Demand History Really Need to Be Cleansed?
How Much Data Should Be Used?
Demand-Signal Repositories
What Is Demand Signal Analytics?
Demand Signal Analytics Key Benefits
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Further Reading
Chapter 4: The Process
Centers of Forecasting Excellence
Demand Management Champion
Demand-Driven Planning
What Is Demand Sensing and Shaping?
A New Paradigm Shift
Large-Scale Automatic Hierarchical Forecasting
Transactional Data
Time Series Data
Forecasting Models
Skill Requirements
Summary
Key Learnings
Further Reading
Chapter 5: Performance Metrics
Why MAPE Is Not Always the Best Metric
Why In-Sample/Out-of-Sample Measurement Is So Important
Forecastability
Forecast Value Added
H
o
: Your Forecasting Process Has No Effect
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Further Reading
Chapter 6: The Analytics
Underlying Fundaments of Statistical Models
How Predictable Is the Future?
Importance of Segmentation of Your Products
Consumption-Based Modeling
Consumption-Based Modeling Using Multi-Tiered Causal Analysis
Consumption-Based Modeling Case Study
Summary
Key Learnings
Notes
Further Reading
Chapter 7: The Demand Planning Brief
Demand Planning Brief
Overview
Background
Recommended Forecast Methodology
Model Hierarchy
Model Selection Criteria
Supporting Information
Analytic Snapshot
Model Selection and Interpretation
Scenario Analysis
Summary
Key Learnings
Chapter 8: The Strategic Roadmap
Current State versus Future State
Current State
Future State
Gaps and Interdependencies
Strategic Roadmap
Summary
Index
End User License Agreement
Pages
vi
vii
xiii
xiv
xv
xvi
xvii
xviii
xix
xx
xxi
xxiii
xxiv
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
Guide
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1: The Current State
Figure 1.1 People, process, analytics, and technology required for adoption and sustainability.
Figure 1.2 Current use of forecasting methodologies and tools.
Figure 1.3 Demand data used for forecasting and planning.
Figure 1.4 Number of people reviewing, adjusting, and approving demand forecasts.
Figure 1.5 Comparing upper/lower forecast ranges for different forecasting methods.
Chapter 2: The Journey
Figure 2.1 The supply chain journey started by becoming supply-driven.
Figure 2.2 Sales & operations planning was introduced to improved synchronization.
Figure 2.3 Traditional supply chain equation.
Figure 2.4 New supply chain equation.
Figure 2.5 The new SM&OP/F process goals, purpose, and needs.
Figure 2.6 Companies are moving to become demand-driven.
Figure 2.7 Key components of the demand-driven planning process.
Figure 2.8 The next stage in the supply chain journey is becoming digital driven.
Figure 2.9 2015 CGT Report: Forecasting leads analytics benefits.
Figure 2.10 Potential benefits of more accurate demand forecasts.
Chapter 3: The Data
Figure 3.1 Top four elements of supply chain management pain for respondent.
Figure 3.2 Supply chain focal points for next two years.
Figure 3.3 Demand information currently used for forecasting and planning.
Figure 3.4 Consumer demand (POS/syndicated scanner data) versus supply (shipments).
Figure 3.5 Proof-of-value results using uncleansed data: holistic modeling.
Figure 3.6 Before and after data cleansing.
Figure 3.7 Holistic model using an ARIMAX model.
Figure 3.8 Demand signal analytics combining descriptive and predictive analytics.
Chapter 4: The Process
Figure 4.1 Demand-driven forecasting and planning process.
Figure 4.2 Demand sensing and shaping workflow.
Figure 4.3 Demand-driven collaborative workflow.
Figure 4.4 Most companies review their forecasts in a product hierarchy.
Figure 4.5 Globalization has made product hierarchies more complex.
Chapter 5: Performance Metrics
Figure 5.1 In-sample/out-of-sample test for forecast accuracy.
Figure 5.2 Coefficient of variation comparisons.
Chapter 6: The Analytics
Figure 6.1 Three key times series components and unexplained randomness (or irregular component).
Figure 6.2 Four segmentation quadrants using product portfolio management principles.
Figure 6.3 Plotting statistical methods based on segmentation and portfolio management principles.
Figure 6.4 Percentage of products that fall in each quadrant.
Figure 6.5 Product hierarchy.
Figure 6.6 CPG product-level consumption model fit with forecast versus shipments.
Figure 6.7 CPG product-level shipment model fit with forecast.
Chapter 7: The Demand Planning Brief
Figure 7.1 Demand forecast results at the top company level.
Figure 7.2 Wine sales by region.
Figure 7.3 Base price for wine types: value priced higher than red/white.
Figure 7.4 Demand forecasting and planning process flow.
Figure 7.5 Breakdown of the data series.
Figure 7.6 Autocorrelation panel for value wines in Western region.
Figure 7.7 Parameter estimates for overall model.
Figure 7.8 Nationwide sales projections for 2015, with and without a price increase.
Chapter 8: The Strategic Roadmap
Figure 8.1 Strategic roadmap from current state to future state.
List of Tables
Chapter 5: Performance Metrics
Table 5.1 Example of SKU Demand Metrics for a Large Company
Table 5.2 In-Sample/Out-of-Sample Weekly Actuals versus Forecast
Table 5.3 Performance Metrics Comparisons
Table 5.4 An Example of an FVA Report
Table 5.5 Which Demand Forecasting Is More Accurate?
Table 5.6 Performance Metrics Comparisons
Chapter 6: The Analytics
Table 6.1 CPG Product Level Consumption Model Fit
Table 6.2 CPG Product Level Shipment Model Fit
Chapter 7: The Demand Planning Brief
Table 7.1 Correlation between Sales and Price for Each Region/Wine Type
Table 7.2 System-Generated Hierarchical Forecasts with Corresponding Error Percentages
Table 7.3 Final Model Fit Statistics
Table 7.4 Projected Change Due to 5% Price Increase
Table 7.5 West Region Projected Change in Sales Volume & Income by Type
Table 7.6 P&L Analysis Assumptions
Table 7.7 What-If Analysis for 5% Price Increase in Region 2
Table 7.8 Estimated Change in Sales due to Promotions
Chapter 8: The Strategic Roadmap
Table 8.1 Strategic Roadmap from Current State to Future State
Add Highlight
No Comment
..................Content has been hidden....................
You can't read the all page of ebook, please click
here
login for view all page.
Day Mode
Cloud Mode
Night Mode
Reset