CHAPTER 4
Valuation Overview

The most important question before even getting into valuation mechanics is “What is value?” To help answer this question, we note there are two major categories of value:

  1. Book value. Book value is the value of an asset or entire business entity as determined by its books, or the financials.
  2. Market value. Market value is the value of an asset or entire business entity as determined by the market.

BOOK VALUE

The book value can be determined by the balance sheet. The total book value of a company's property, for example, can be found under the net property, plant, and equipment (PP&E) in the assets section of the balance sheet. The book value of the shareholders' interest in the company (not including the noncontrolling interest holders) can be found under shareholders' equity.

MARKET VALUE

The market value of a company can be defined by its market capitalization, or shares outstanding times share price.

Both the book value and market value represent the equity value of a business. The equity value of a business is the value of the business attributable to just equity holders—that is, the value of the business excluding debt lenders, noncontrolling interest holders, and other obligations.

Shareholders' equity, for example, is the value of the company's assets less the value of the company's liabilities. So this shareholders' equity value (making sure noncontrolling interest is not included in shareholders' equity) is the value of the business excluding lenders and other obligations—an equity value. The market value, or market capitalization, is based on the stock price, which is inherently an equity value since equity investors value a company's stock after payments to debt lenders and other obligations.

ENTERPRISE VALUE

Enterprise value (also known as firm value) is defined as the value of the entire business, including debt lenders and other obligations. We will see why the importance of enterprise value is that it approaches an approximate value of the operating assets of an entity. To be more specific, “debt lenders and other obligations” can include short-term debts, long-term debts, current portion of long-term debts, capital lease obligations, preferred securities, noncontrolling interests, and other nonoperating liabilities (e.g., unallocated pension funds). So, for complete reference, enterprise value can be calculated as:

equation

We will explain why subtracting “cash and cash equivalents” is significant. So, to arrive at enterprise value on a book value basis, we take the shareholders' equity (book value) and add back any potential debts and obligations less cash and cash equivalents. Similarly, if we add to market capitalization (market value) any potential debts and obligations less cash and cash equivalents, we approach the enterprise value of a company on a market value basis.

Here is a quick recap:

Valuation Category Book Value Market Value
Equity Value Shareholders' Equity Market Capitalization
Enterprise Value Shareholders' Equity plus potential debts and obligations less cash and cash equivalents Market Capitalization plus potential debts and obligations less cash and cash equivalents

Let's take the example of a company that has shareholders' equity of $10 million according to its balance sheet. Let's also say it has $5 million in total liabilities. We will assume no noncontrolling interest holders in these examples to better illustrate the main idea. As per the balance sheet formula (where Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity), the total value of the company's assets is $15 million. So $10 million is the book equity value of the company.

Depiction of book equity value of a company.

Let's now say the company trades in the market at a premium to its book equity value; the market capitalization of the company is $12 million. The market capitalization of a company is an important value, because it is current; it is the value of a business as determined by the market (Share Price × Shares Outstanding). When we take the market capitalization and add the total liabilities of $5 million, we get a value that represents the value of the company's total assets as determined by the market.

Depiction of value of the company's total assets as determined by the market.

However, in valuation we typically take market capitalization or book value and add back not the total liabilities, but just debts and obligations as noted earlier to get to enterprise value. The balance sheet formula can help us explain why:

equation

Using this equation, let's list out the actual balance sheet items:

equation

To better illustrate the theory, in this example we assume the company has no noncontrolling interests, no preferred securities, and no other nonoperating liabilities such as unallocated pension funds; it has just short-term debt, long-term debt, and cash.

We will abbreviate some line items so the formula is easier to read:

equation

Now we need to move everything that's not related to debt—the accounts payable (AP) and accrued expenses (AE)—to the other side of the equation. We can simply subtract AP and AE from both sides of the equation to get:

equation

And we can regroup the terms on the right to get:

equation

Notice that AR + Inv. − AP − AE, or current assets less current liabilities, is working capital, so:

equation

Now remember that enterprise value is shareholders' equity (or market capitalization) plus debt less cash, so we need to subtract cash from both sides of the equation:

equation

Short-term debt plus long-term debt less cash and cash equivalents is also known as net debt. So, this gives us:

equation

This is a very important formula. So, when adding net debt to shareholders' equity or market capitalization, we are backing into the value of the company's PP&E and working capital in the previous example, or more generally the core operating assets of the business. So, enterprise value is a way of determining the implied value of a company's core operating assets. Further, enterprise value based on market capitalization, or

equation

is a way to approach the value of the operating assets as determined by the market.

Depiction of value of the operating assets as determined by the market.

Note that we had simplified the example for illustration. If the company had noncontrolling interests, preferred securities, or other nonoperating liabilities such as unallocated pension funds in addition to debts, the formula would read:

equation

Quite often people wonder why cash needs to be removed from net debt in this equation. This is also a very common investment banking interview question. And, as illustrated here, cash is not considered an operating asset; it is not an asset that will be generating future income for the business (arguably). And so, true value of a company to an investor is the value of just those assets that will continue to produce profit and growth in the future. This is one of the reasons why, in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, we are concerned only about the cash being produced from the operating assets of the business. It is also crucial to understand this core valuation concept, because the definition of an operating asset, or the interpretation of which portions of the company will provide future value, can differ from company to market to industry. Rather than depending on simple formulas, it is important to understand the reason behind them in this rapidly changing environment so you can be equipped with the proper tools to create your own formulas. For example, do Internet businesses rely on PP&E as the core operating assets? If not, would the current enterprise value formula have meaning? How about in emerging markets?

MULTIPLES

Multiples are metrics that compare the value of a business relative to its operations. A company could have a market capitalization value of $100 million, but what does that mean in relation to its operating performance? If that company is producing $10 million in net income, then its value is 10 times the net income it produces; “10 × net income” is a market value multiple. These multiples are used to compare the performance of one company to another. So let's say I wanted to compare this business to another business that also has $100 million in market cap. How would I know which business is the better investment? The market capitalization value itself is arbitrary in this case unless it is compared to the actual performance of the business. So if the other company is producing $5 million in net income, its multiple is 20×; its market capitalization is 20 times the net income it produces. As an investor, I would prefer to invest in the lower multiple, as it is the cheaper investment; it is more net income for a lower market price. So, multiples help us compare relative values to a business's operations.

Other multiples exist, depending on what underlying operating metric one would like to use as the basis of comparison: Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT); earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA); and revenue can be used instead of net income. But how do we determine which are better metrics to compare? Let's take an example of two companies with similar operations. (See Table 4.1.)

Table 4.1 Business Comparison

Metric Company A Company B
Revenue $10,000.0 $10,000.0
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) 3,500.0 3,500.0
Operating Expenses 1,500.0 1,500.0
EBITDA 5,000.0 5,000.0
Depreciation 500.0 3,000.0
EBIT 4,500.0 2,000.0
Interest 0.0 2,000.0
EBT 4,500.0 0.0
Taxes (@ 35%) 1,575.0 0.0
Net Income 2,925.0 0.0

Let's say we want to consider investing in either Company A or Company B. Company A is a small distribution business, a package delivery business that has generated $10,000 in revenue in a given period. This is a startup company run and operated by one person. It has a cost structure that has netted $5,000 in EBITDA. Company B is also a small delivery business operating in a different region. Company B is producing the same revenue and has the same operating cost structure, so it is also producing $5,000 in EBITDA. The current owner of Company A operates his business out of his home. He parks the delivery truck in his garage, so he has minimal depreciation costs and no interest expense. The owner of Company B, however, operates his business differently. He has built a warehouse for storage and to park the truck. This has increased the depreciation expense and has created additional interest expense, bringing net income to $0. If we were to compare the two businesses based on net income, Company A is clearly performing better than Company B. But, what if we are only concerned about the core operations? What if we are only concerned about the volume of packages being delivered, the number of customers, and the direct costs associated to the deliveries? What if we were looking to acquire Company A or B, for example? In that case, let's say we don't care about Company B's debt and its warehouse, as we would sell the warehouse and pay down the debt. Here, EBITDA would be a better underlying comparable measure. From an operations perspective, looking at EBITDA, both companies are performing well, and we could have been misled in that case by looking only at net income.

So, although market capitalization/net income is a common multiple, there are other multiples using metrics such as EBIT or EBITDA. However, since EBIT and EBITDA are values before interest is taken into account, we cannot compare them to market capitalization. Remember that market capitalization, based on the share price, is the value of a business after lenders are paid; EBITDA (before interest) is the value before lenders have been paid. So, adding net debt (plus potentially other items as discussed previously in the enterprise value section) back to market capitalization gives us a numerator (enterprise value) that we can use with EBIT or EBITDA as a multiple:

equation

or

equation

So, in short, if a financial metric you want to use as the comparable metric is after debt or interest, it must be related to market capitalization—this is a market value multiple. If the financial metric is before debt or interest, it is related to enterprise value—an enterprise value multiple.

Market Value Multiples Enterprise Value Multiples
Market Capitalization/Net Income Enterprise Value/Sales
Price per Share/EPS Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Market Capitalization/Book Value Enterprise Value/EBIT

THREE CORE METHODS OF VALUATION

The value definitions and multiples from earlier in the chapter are applied in several ways to best approach how much an entity could be worth. There are three major methods utilized to approach this value:

  1. Comparable company analysis
  2. Precedent transactions analysis
  3. Discounted cash flow analysis

Each of these three methods is based on wide-ranging variables and could be considered quite subjective. Also, the methods approach value from very different perspectives. So we can have relatively strong support of value from a financial perspective if all three methods fall within similar valuation ranges.

Note that a leveraged buyout can also be considered a fourth method of valuation. The required exit in order to achieve a desired return on investment is the value of the business to the investor. This is a valuation method sometimes used by funds.

Comparable Company Analysis

The comparable company analysis compares one company with companies that are similar in size, product, and geography. The comparable company analysis utilizes multiples as a measure of comparison. If the peers' multiples are consistently higher than the multiples of the company we are valuing, it could mean that our company is undervalued. Conversely, if the peers' multiples are consistently lower than the multiples of the company we are valuing, it could mean that our company is overvalued. The comparable company analysis has one major advantage over the other valuation methods:

  • It is the most current of all three analyses. It gives a market perspective. The comparable company analysis is based on the most recent stock prices and financials of the company.

However, the comparable company analysis has the following drawbacks:

  • It may be difficult to find companies to compare. If the company has a unique business model, is in a niche industry, or is not the size of a public company, it may be difficult to find the right peer group.
  • The markets as a whole may be undervalued or overvalued. We could be in a market environment where the entire industry is overvalued or undervalued. If so, our analysis will be flawed.

Precedent Transactions Analysis

The precedent transactions analysis assesses relative value by looking at multiples of historical transactions. The perspective is that the value of the company we are valuing is relative to the price others have paid for similar companies. So, if we look for other companies similar to ours that have been acquired, we can compare their purchase multiples to assess the approximate value of our business.

Purchase Multiples

Purchase multiples are similar to market multiples (described previously), except the numerator in a purchase multiple is based on the price paid for an entity as opposed to the current market value.

Enterprise value/net income, for example, is based on (market capitalization + net debt)/net income in a market multiple. But in a purchase multiple, enterprise value/net income is based on (purchase price + net debt)/net income. Net debt is plus potentially noncontrolling interests, preferred securities, unallocated pension funds (and arguably other nonoperating liabilities), as discussed previously in the enterprise value section.

A precedent transactions analysis has this major advantage over the other valuation methods:

  • The purchase price includes a premium. This could be advantageous if we were looking to acquire a company. It would help us determine how much of a premium we would need to consider in order to convince the owner or shareholders to hand over the company to us.

And there are several major drawbacks to the analysis:

  • Historical analysis. Precedent transactions by definition are historical transactions. The analysis may be irrelevant if we are in a completely different economic environment.
  • Difficult-to-find relevant transactions. Especially in an environment where there are not many acquisitions, it may not be possible to find acquisitions similar to the one we are analyzing.
  • Difficult-to-get data. Even if we do find relevant transactions, it is not always easy to find the data to create the multiples (Table 4.2).

Table 4.2 Multiples

Market Value Enterprise Value (EV)
Market Multiples Market Cap/Net Income EV/EBIT
Price per Share/EPS (P/E) EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales (where EV is Market Cap + Net Debt*)
Purchase Multiples Purchase Price/Net Income EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales (where EV is Purchase Price + Net Debt*)

Note: “Potential debts and obligations” can include short-term debts, long-term debts, current portion of long-term debts, capital lease obligations, preferred securities, noncontrolling interests, and other nonoperating liabilities (e.g., unallocated pension funds).

* Plus potentially noncontrolling interests, preferred securities, and unallocated pension funds (and arguably other nonoperating liabilities), as discussed in the enterprise value section.

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is known as the most technical of the three major methods, as it is based on the company's cash flows. The discounted cash flow method takes the company's projected unlevered free cash flow (UFCF) and discounts it back to present value. We typically project the company's cash flows over a fixed time horizon (five to seven years, for example). We then create a terminal value, which is the value of the business from the last projected year into perpetuity. The enterprise value of the business is the sum of the present value of all the projected cash flows and the present value of the terminal value.

equation

The discounted cash flow analysis has this major advantage over the other valuation methods:

  • It is the most technical. It is based on the company's cash flows from the model projections, as opposed to the comparable company analysis, which is mainly driven by market data.

The analysis also has several disadvantages:

  • Terminal value. Although the first projected years are based on modeled cash flows, the terminal value accounts for a very significant portion of the overall valuation. That terminal value is based on a multiple or a perpetuity.
  • Model projections. The model projections could be inaccurate; they could be overstated or understated, depending on what is driving the projections.
  • Discount rate. The discount rate may be difficult to estimate.

Again, while all three major valuation methodologies have significant drawbacks, they do have strengths. It is important to play the strengths of each off of the others to come up with an approximate value of the entire business. If you are interested in seeing how that is technically done, I recommend reading my book, Financial Modeling and Valuation: A Practical Guide to Investment Banking and Private Equity (John Wiley & Sons, 2013), which steps through a complete valuation analysis of Walmart.

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