CONCLUSION

The Bright Future

For identifiable reasons, groups often perform poorly. In some cases, groups do not merely fail to correct the errors of their members; they actually amplify those errors. In this way, the behavioral biases displayed by individuals are replicated, and often even aggravated, within groups. It’s a big mistake to think that when a group’s individual members are prone to error, the group as a whole will correct those errors.

Wise groups and their leaders are constantly alert to these risks and attempt to change people’s incentives. They do not ask for happy talk. Smart leaders are anxious. They help to elicit information by silencing themselves and by allowing other group members to talk, even if those members have low status. If a group’s members are asked to adopt certain roles (formally or informally), information is far less likely to get lost. As we have noted, the idea of “equities,” often invoked within the federal government, increases the likelihood that groups will obtain the information they need.

Wise leaders embrace a particular idea of what it means to be a team player: not to agree with the majority’s current view, but to add valuable information. Leaders create a culture that does not punish, and even rewards, the expression of dissident views. They do so to protect not the dissident, but the group. Groups can take steps to combine statistical averaging with deliberation, perhaps by ensuring that people’s private views are expressed and recorded before discussion begins.

For the future, some of the most promising innovations are supported by modern technologies. Tournaments can be created quickly, almost immediately, and they can engage many competitors, some of whom will have helpful or even amazing ideas. Prediction markets often work, because they create the right incentives. With some kind of process for public comment, both private and public groups obtain information from countless people with whom they do not and cannot directly interact. And if groups seek to develop new options, and not merely to select among existing ones, they have a host of available strategies. With new technologies, the sky may not be the limit.

The failures of groups often have disastrous consequences—not just for group members, but for all those who are affected by those failures. The good news is that decades of empirical work, alongside recent innovations, offer a toolbox of practical safeguards, correctives, and enhancements. With a few identifiable steps, groups can get a lot wiser.