Chapter 1


Yearly performance round-up

Capital performance

Capital performance

2001 +5%

‘2001 was a most difficult year but there were opportunities amid the gloom.’

A year of foot and mouth disease, the September 11th terrorist attacks, and the profits warnings of a deteriorating economy. Highlight was the takeover of electrical appliances company Pifco, a major holding, followed by a nice Christmas present with the takeover of electronics TGI by a private Danish company; otherwise nothing of note – a year of swings and roundabouts.

2002 +5%

‘Given the brutal market of 2002 and a dearth of corporate activity I am well satisfied with 5% capital growth.’

This year’s ‘stars’ have been James Fisher in shipping services, Lookers the motor retailer, NWF in animal feeds/foods and fuel distribution – all with profits growth and an upward rating. On the negative side my only disaster has been Abbeycrest, the jewellery manufacturer and distributor, where management has been struggling to cope with a range of problems.

2003 +44%

‘A near 50% total investment return – to be precise, 44% capital growth plus 4.5% dividend income, and breaking through the £1 million PEP/ISA barrier makes 2003 a vintage year for me and my investment philosophy.’

Modest losses taken on enameller Bilston & Battersea, software specialist Jasmin, and air filtration company McLeod Russel, but a whole string of substantial successes with Christie, Clarkson, Parkdean Holidays and Windsor. Useful management buyout (MBO) profits from Jarvis Hotels and bed manufacturer Silentnight – both personal equity plan (PEP) sheltered.

2004 +30%

‘In many ways for a DVD (defensive value plus dividends) investor like myself 2004 has been a classic year with very little on the downside, profitable corporate activity, many growth stories, and a good continuing flow of dividends.’

Takeovers of niche broker and property financier Wintrust by Singer & Friedlander; Headway, an owner of small industrial estates, by Jack Petchey; and an MBO at property company Estates & Agency. Property star Town Centre has quintrupled in six years!

2005 +20%

Four takeovers this year – departmental store chain James Beattie, banker/lender Broadcastle, Countryside Properties and RAC. A good year for property developer/construction services Pochin’s – up 50%, with publisher Quarto entering my portfolio for the first time. Out went aerosols/cosmetics supplier Swallowfield after a ‘Christmas nasty’ with another profits warning and a passing of its interim dividend. ‘Swallowfield has become a serial disappointer and I incurred a painful loss. I am now resolved to adopt a much tougher approach to my laggards. There are plenty of excellent stocks to invest in – my portfolio is not a joint venture with the Salvation Army!’

2006 +18%

‘The final year of my relationship with my 40% sleeping partner, Gordon Brown, has delivered 18% capital growth and therefore he will be receiving a very handsome farewell capital gains tax cheque later this month.’

Another good year for takeovers: Welsh microbiologist Biotrace, spotted early in the year and purchased 13 times between 87p and 97.5p, succumbed to a 130p cash bid from 3M, and garden centre Wyevale went to Scottish entrepreneur Tom Hunter – both PEP/ISA tax sheltered. However, bids for Alternative Investment Market (AIM)-quoted electrical products GET and caravan parks operator Parkdean will trigger future capital gains tax (CGT) bills. Thankfully only one modest negative in 2006 – environmental services Fountains, where I bailed out on the loss of confidence in its management.

2007 –14%

‘To say that 2007 was an interesting investment year would be an understatement … the cooler subprime winds were already beginning to be felt on this side of the Atlantic.’

Although palm oil MP Evans, soaps/toiletries PZ Cussons and Irish/UK drugs distributor United Drug hit new highs, and housebuilder Ben Bailey was taken over, these bright spots were heavily outweighed by heavy falls in Pochin’s, leisure industry services Christie Group, software specialist Delcam, and window ventilation Titon.

2008 –42%

Unquestionably my worst ever year! I wrote: ‘“The people of England are never so happy as when you tell them they are ruined,” quipped Arthur Murphy, the eighteenth-century actor and dramatist. But I doubt it is the sentiment of today’s private investor, who approaches 2009 with a ravaged portfolio. We are all in uncharted territory. Nobody knows whether recession will merge into depression; my gut instinct is that we will muddle through and avoid an “Armageddon” scenario … most “proper” businesses are undervalued by any normal yardstick. There has to be a closing of the gap between dividend yields and the minimal returns on cash deposits.’

I ended my 2008 summary article by forecasting: ‘History should show that 2009 represented a great buying opportunity.’

2009 +28%

This year saw me benefiting from a strong recovery in the markets, with virtually all my holdings showing gains. Indeed, I felt that some shares had over-recovered and thus I took profits. Building products supplier Marshalls, which I had bought at 66p last December, were sold for 132p; similarly, three-quarters of my Leeds-based Town Centre Securities that I had bought in February at 60p went out at 182p – an extraordinary trebling in seven months. Two new AIM purchases – Concurrent Technologies and Pressure Technologies – did well, and I doubled my holding in London pub chain Capital Pub, which looked very good value.

2010 +29%

Another good year. Pride of place goes to electro-optical/laser specialist Gooch & Housego with a trebled share price, closely followed by conveyor belting specialist Fenner, which doubled; 11 other holdings appreciated 50% or more. On the debit side, a loss on BP, a further drift in Pochin’s and a farewell to HMV, an unnecessary and unfortunate speculation which I got plain wrong! Only one takeover this year, of equity release specialist Sovereign Reversions, by the much larger property group Grainger.

2011 –2%

A disappointing and difficult year. If I take into account dividends of around 3.5% then I am probably just in positive territory in terms of overall return, but that is scant consolation for all my efforts. It was a year of mixed fortunes. On the positive side, three good takeovers – Smiths News for the rump of Dawson Holdings, Greene King, very profitably for Capital Pub, and American insurance broker AmWINS for THB. Also a good realised profit on defence/engineering MS International, bought two years ago at 115p, sold just shy of £3. On the negatives, my ‘dog’ has been Cable & Wireless Worldwide, down 75%. New purchases included newspaper/periodicals distributor Smiths News on a near 10% yield and price earnings ratio (PER) of 5! It has proved a great ‘buy’.

2012 +24%

After a negative 2011, back on track with a solidly profitable year. I have added to three holdings after initial meetings with their CEOs: leading air charter broker Air Partner, natural feeding additives for animals Anpario, and insurance services Charles Taylor. I finally lost patience with window ventilation specialist Titon, taking a loss, as I also did on Cable & Wireless Worldwide following its takeover by Vodafone. However, these two realisations gave me the funds for the aforementioned purchases. Software specialist Delcam is now really starting to motor, forecasting 2012 results ‘ahead of market expectations’. It is a classic example of many of my ‘long fuse’ holdings, where I buy for the long term, patiently waiting for profits growth and, hopefully, an upwards re-rating, and then witnessing and enjoying an ‘explosion’ in their share prices.

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