Chapter 7

Introducing Project Cost Management

CERTIFICATION OBJECTIVES

7.01   Planning the Project Costs

7.02   Estimating the Project Costs

7.03   Creating a Project Budget

7.04   Implementing Cost Control

7.05   Measuring Project Performance

Two-Minute Drill

Q&A    Self Test

Projects cost money. Ever worked with a client who had a huge vision for a project but little capital to invest in that vision? Or worked with a client who gasped when you revealed how much it would cost to complete her desired scope of work? Or have you been fortunate with customers who accepted the costs for the project at face value, made certain that funds were available, and sent you on your way to complete the work? As a rule, management and customers are always concerned with how much a project is going to cost in relation to how much a project is going to earn as a return on the investment (ROI). And stakeholders will measure costs and return on investment with different approaches. Some organizations define costs when the invoice is received, others when the order is placed, and even others only when the payment is actually made.

Most likely, there is more need for negotiating, questioning, and evaluating for larger projects than for smaller ones. The relationship between the project cost and the project scope should be direct: You get what you pay for. Think it’s possible to buy a mansion at ranch home prices? Not likely. Think it’s possible to run a worldwide marketing campaign at the cost of a postcard mailer? Not likely. A realistic expectation of what a project will cost will give great weight to the project’s scope.

As the business need undergoes analysis, progressive elaboration and estimates are completed based on varying levels of detail, and eventually the cost of the project emerges. Often, however, predicted costs and actual costs vary. Poor planning, skewed assumptions, and overly optimistic estimates all contribute to this. A successful project manager must be able to plan, predict, budget, and control the costs of a project.

Exploring Project Cost Management

Costs associated with projects are not just the costs of goods procured to complete the project. The cost of the labor may be one of the biggest expenses of a project. The project manager must rely on time estimates to predict the cost of the labor to complete the project work. In addition, the cost of the equipment and materials needed to complete the project work must be factored into the project expenses. This chapter examines the management of project costs, how to predict them, account for them, and then, with plan in hand, to control them. We’ll examine exactly how costs are planned for and taken into consideration by the performing organization and how the size of the project affects the cost estimating process.

One of the most popular topics I’m asked about in my project management exam prep classes is earned value management (EVM). EVM is a suite of formulas to show project performance. While most of EVM deals with the cost of the project in relation to what was created, there’s another facet we’ll look at called earned schedule. Earned schedule looks at the actual time it took to complete a portion (or all) of the project. I’ll talk about that in detail a bit later in this chapter.

Tailoring the Project Cost Management Approach

How your organization manages project costs is likely different from how my organization manages project costs. Every organization, like every project, is different, and cost management can be managed any number of different ways. Organizations might use a database of past projects’ financial information to guide the current project’s finances. Organizations can also use special estimating and budget approaches they’ve developed over years of experience. Earned value management can be implemented fully, partially, or not all—there’s no requirement to use it. Project and program governance can also affect cost management techniques, financial audits for projects, and special procedures unique to the organization.

Agile projects usually don’t have the in-depth planning and estimating approaches that predictive life cycle projects use. This is because when things are consistently changing, as you’d expect in an agile project, estimates aren’t very reliable. More likely, agile projects are going to have a high-level cost estimate for the project, based on past projects, the expertise of the project manager or other experts, or the predicted hours of labor for the size of the known project work.

For your PMP exam, you’ll want to know about the cost management processes covered in this chapter:

   Planning cost management

   Estimating costs

   Determining the budget

   Controlling costs

CERTIFICATION OBJECTIVE 7.01

Planning the Project Costs

You need to create a plan for how you’ll manage the costs of the project. This direct-forward cost management process is part of the project’s planning process group and defines how you, the project manager, will manage the costs of the project. Like most of the subsidiary project management plans, this plan directs the other processes in the process group. It serves as a guidebook for how the process groups should operate within your organization.

If you’re thinking that a cost management plan could be standardized for your organization, you’re on the right track. Most organizations could create a standard project cost management plan that serves as a template for all projects. You’d then adapt that template to all future projects. That’s something important to remember for your PMP exam: You don’t have to start from scratch when creating a subsidiary plan, cost management plan, or others; just take what’s been created in the past and adapt it to the present. That’s part of utilizing your organizational process assets to make your life easier, but it also keeps the projects consistent by using what has worked in the past.

You might be wondering whether you need to create a cost management plan for every project that you’re managing. Let me answer that for you: No, you don’t. Remember that these processes are not required, but available. You might have a small project, a project that’s based on previous work, or a project for which all the funds are controlled and managed by functional management. There’s probably no need to create an in-depth cost management plan in these instances.

Considering the Cost Planning Inputs

If you’re tasked with creating the cost management plan, you’ll need several components to help you do the planning. Bear in mind that this is a planning process, so you may be returning to this process many times throughout the project. Chances are you want to have in-depth information for the entire project when you start planning costs, so you’ll have to revisit the process to complete the planning. Yes, that can be a pain, but the cyclic nature of project management planning helps you create more accurate project plans and provide better insight and control to the project’s cost performance.

Here are the four inputs you’ll use for cost management planning:

   Project charter The project charter provides a high-level summary budget that can help guide the cost planning process.

   Project management plan In particular, you’ll need the schedule management plan and the risk management plan.

   Enterprise environmental factors These factors include things like the market conditions, exchange rates for international projects, and resource cost rates.

   Organizational process assets Your organization may have rules and a structure that affect how you manage costs. Historical information, templates, financial controls, and formal and informal cost management policies can also serve as an input to cost management planning.

Creating the Cost Management Plan

After considering expert judgment, undergoing analysis, and attending lots of meetings, you and the project team will create the cost management plan. This project management process is part of the project planning process group. The cost management plan defines how the project costs will be estimated, how the budget will be created, and how you’ll control the costs within the project. The plan also defines any analytical tools you’ll use for performance of the project costs, such as EVM.

The cost management plan accomplishes many things for the project manager, but chief among them is that it defines how costs will be planned, managed, and controlled. Here are the contents of the cost management plan you’ll create:

   Units of measure Currency, staffing time, quantity metrics, and resource utilization costs

   Level of precision How precise your measurements need to be: for example, you may be required to list costs down to two decimal places, or you may round cents to the nearest dollar.

   Level of accuracy The acceptable range of variance for project costs, such as +/–10 percent or a dollar amount.

   Control thresholds The amount of variance that is allowed before an action must be taken, such as a variance report or predefined cuts in the project scope to maintain overall costs.

   Rules of performance measurement The method you’ll use to measure project performance; if your WBS is using control account plans, you’ll reference those. For your PMP examination, you’ll want to know EVM.

   Organizational procedure links How the project’s costs will be linked to the deliverables in the WBS. The midlevel components of the WBS that have a dollar amount associated with the deliverables are called the control account.

   Additional planning details Funding information for the project, cash flow expectations, fluctuations in currency exchanges, inflation, and overall cost recording.

CERTIFICATION OBJECTIVE 7.02

Estimating the Project Costs

Cost estimating is the process of calculating the costs of the identified resources required to complete the project work. The person or group doing the estimating must consider the possible fluctuations, conditions, and other causes of variances that could affect the total cost of the estimate.

There is a distinct difference between cost estimating and pricing. A cost estimate is the cost of the resources required to complete the project work. Pricing, however, includes a profit margin. In other words, a company performing projects for other organizations may do a cost estimate to see how much the project is going to cost to complete. Then, with this cost information, they’ll factor a profit into the project work, as shown next.

More and more companies are requiring that the project manager calculate the project costs and then factor the ROI and other benefit models into the project product. The goal is to see the value of the project once its deliverables are in operation. While the ROI on a project rarely happens while the project is in motion, the concept is that the project will create an ROI.

Considering the Cost Estimating Inputs

Cost estimating relies on several project components from the initiation and planning process groups. This process also relies on enterprise environmental factors, the processes and procedures unique to your organization, and the organizational process assets such as historical information and forms and templates.

Referencing the Project Management Plan

The primary input to creating the cost estimates is the cost management plan. Recall that this plan defines the acceptable approach for cost estimating in your organization and for the project. The cost management plan is based on your company’s enterprise environmental factors—specifically the rules and procedures for how you may estimate costs. If you’re doing a project that’s internal to your company, you may have a looser approach to cost estimating than you would if you were doing a project for a client of your company. The project for your client has a profit margin and cash inflows, while the internal project, though still important, is funded by existing funds rather than incoming funds. The quality management plan is also needed, because it defines quality objectives required and that’ll help estimate the costs to ascertain the quality expectations.

You’ll need the scope baseline, because the goal of the project team and the stakeholders is to create all of the elements in the project scope to satisfy the requirements of the project. The project scope statement is with the project manager throughout the entire project, and it’s useful to ensure that all of the requirements are being met.

At a deeper level, however, you’ll want to rely on the work breakdown structure (WBS). Of course, the WBS is included—it’s an input to several major planning processes, all of which deal with costs:

   Developing the project management plan This is the overarching project management plan that includes not only the cost management plan but also the information about how the project may be financed and contracted, and what the expectations in the organization are for cost management.

   Defining the project activities In some, but not all, projects, the project includes the cost of labor as part of its project expenses. Any resources, such as equipment and material, will need to be paid for as part of the project budget.

   Estimating the project costs You’ll use the WBS to help you identify how much each work package will cost, and this can help you create a definitive estimate (details coming up).

   Determining the project budget You can estimate all you want, but you never know how much a project costs until it’s done. The project budget is the cost aggregation and cost reconciliation for each thing, service, and expense the project needs.

   Planning the project quality A cost is associated with achieving the expected quality in a project. We’ll discuss that more in Chapter 8.

   Identifying the project risks Risks often have a cost element associated with them, and the project manager and organization may create a contingency reserve to offset the risk exposure.

   Planning the project procurement When the project needs to procure materials, labor, or services, the project manager must follow a cost element and purchasing process.

Along with the WBS, you’ll rely on the WBS dictionary as the third element of the scope baseline. The WBS dictionary provides information on each deliverable and the associated work needed to create the WBS component. In addition, the WBS may be referenced to an organization’s code of accounts. The code of accounts is a coding system used by the performing organization’s accounting system to account for the project work. Estimates within the project must be mapped to the correct code so that the organization’s ledger reflects the actual work performed, the cost of the work performed, and any billing (internal or external) that was charged to the customer for the completed work.

Referencing the Resource Plan

The estimator must know how much each resource costs, and the resource plan may include this information, depending on the organizational policies, application area, and the type of project being completed. The cost should be in some unit of time or measure—such as cost per hour, cost per metric ton, or cost per use. If the rates of the resources are not known, the rates themselves may also have to be estimated. Of course, skewed rates on the estimates will result in a skewed estimate for the project. There are four categories of cost:

   Direct costs These costs are attributed directly to the project work and cannot be shared among projects (airfare, hotels, long-distance phone charges, and so on).

   Indirect costs These costs are representative of more than one project (utilities for the performing organization, access to a training room, project management software license, and so on).

   Variable costs These costs vary, depending on the conditions applied in the project (the number of meeting participants, the supply and demand of materials, and so on).

   Fixed costs These costs remain constant throughout the project (the cost of a piece of rented equipment for the project, the cost of a fixed-price consultant brought onto the project, and so on).

Referencing the Project Schedule

Resources are more than just people—though people are a primary expense on most projects. The estimate activity resource process (as part of resource management) identifies what resources are needed; the project schedule identifies when they’re needed and the frequency at which they’re needed. Essentially, the project schedule enables the project manager and the project team to estimate how much the resources will cost the project, when the funds will be used to employ or consume the resources, and the cost impact should the identified resources miss deadlines within the project.

Estimates of the duration of the activities, which predict the length of the project, are required for decisions on financing the project. The length of the activities will help the performing organization calculate what the total cost of the project will be, including the finance charges. Recall the formula for present value? It’s Present Value = FV / (1 + i)ⁿ; FV is the future value, i is the interest rate, and n is the number of time periods. The future value of the monies the project will earn may need to be measured against the present value to determine whether the project is worth financing, as shown next:

Calculations of the duration of activities are needed to extrapolate the total cost of the work packages. For example, if an activity is estimated to last 14 hours and Suzanne’s cost per hour is $80, then the cost of the work package is $1120 (14 × $80). The duration shows management how long the project is expected to last and which activities will cost the most. It also provides the opportunity to re-sequence activities to shorten the project duration—which consequently shortens the finance period for the project.

Straight-line depreciation allows the organization to write off the same amount each year. The formula for straight-line depreciation is

(purchase value – salvage value) / number of years in use

For example, if the purchase price of a photocopier is $7000 and the salvage value of the photocopier in five years is $2000, the formula would read ($7000 – $2000) / 5 = $1000. This means that the value of the copier decreases $1000 each year; so do the values of your project’s assets, and many organizations want to know this for doing their corporate taxes.

Resources can also cost the project if they miss deadlines with penalties, such as a schedule change in a union’s contract, the cost of materials based on seasonal demand, and fines and penalties for failing to adhere to scheduled regulations.

Using the Risk Register

We’ve not said much about the risk register in the project, and it’s discussed in detail in Chapter 11 on project risk management. However, due to the integrated nature of projects, this is one of those examples where we’ll need to jump ahead just a bit. Risks, as you probably know from your project management experience, can have a positive or a negative effect on the outcome of a project. All identified risks, their characteristics, statuses, and relevant notes are recorded in the risk register.

Most risks, especially the probable, high-impact, negative ones, need to pass through quantitative analysis to determine how much the risk may cost the project in time and money. Based on risk analysis, the project manager creates a special budget just for the impact of project risks: this is called the risk contingency reserve. You use the risk register here in cost estimating to determine how much cash you’ll need to offset the risk events as part of your cost estimates.

Management reserves can also be created to deal with those pesky “unknown unknowns” that practically every project has to deal with. The unknown unknowns are essentially risks that are lurking within the project but that haven’t been specifically identified by name, source, or probability. Management reserves (both schedule and cost) are not included in baseline but are part of the project budget.

Contingency reserves can be managed in a number of different ways. The most common is to set aside an allotment of funds for the identified risks within the project. Another approach is to create a slush fund for the entire project for identified risks and known unknowns. The final approach is an allotment of funds for categories of components based on the WBS and the project schedule. You’ll see this again in much more detail later in this book. (I hope you’ll be able to sleep between now and Chapter 11.)

Referencing Enterprise Environmental Factors

Enterprise environmental factors are an input to the cost estimating process because these are the processes and rules regarding how the project manager will estimate the costs within the organization. Enterprise environmental factors also include the market conditions that can affect the procurement process and the costs vendors provide. You’ll also want to consider any commercially available databases for pricing information. Commercial cost-estimating databases for pricing include industry-standard rates for different types of labor, cost per unit of materials, average costs based on geographical conditions, and other factors depending on the industry. They provide estimates of what the project should cost based on the variables of the project, resources, and other conditions.

Using Organizational Process Assets

One of the preferred organizational process assets is historical information. After all, if the same project’s been done before, why reinvent the wheel? Historical information is proven information and can come from several places:

   Project files Past projects within the performing organization can be used as a reference to predict current costs and time. Ensure that the records referenced are accurate, somewhat current, and reflective of what was actually experienced in the historical project.

   Team members Team members may have specific experience with the project costs or estimates. Recollections may be useful but are highly unreliable when compared to documented results.

   Lessons learned Lessons learned documentation can help the project team estimate the current project if the lessons are from a project with a similar scope.

Estimating Project Costs

Management, customers, and certain stakeholders are all going to be interested in what the project will cost to complete. Several approaches to cost estimating exist, as you’ll learn in a moment. First, however, you need to understand that cost estimates have a way of following the project manager around—especially the lowest initial cost estimate.

The estimates you’ll want to know for the PMP exam, and for your career, are reflective of the accuracy of the information the estimate is based upon. The more accurate the information, the better the cost estimate will be. If you’re steeped in experience in a particular industry, you’ll probably have a good idea of what a project should cost based on your experience. Sometimes you may hire a consultant or rely on experts within your organization to help you predict the cost of a project. That’s great! That’s an example of expert judgment.

Using Analogous Estimating

Analogous estimating relies on historical information to predict the cost of the current project. It is also known as top-down estimating. The analogous estimating process considers the actual cost of a historical project as a basis for the current project. The cost of the historical project is applied to the cost of the current project, taking into account the scope and size of the current project as well as other known variables.

Analogous estimating is a form of expert judgment. This estimating approach takes less time to complete than other estimating models, but it is also less accurate. This top-down approach is good for fast estimates to get a general idea of what the project may cost.

The following is an example of analogous estimating: The Carlton Park Project was to grade and pave a sidewalk around a pond in the community park. The sidewalk of Carlton Park was 1048 feet-by-6 feet, had a textured surface, had some curves around trees, and cost $25,287 to complete. The current project, King Park, will have a similar surface and will cover 4500 feet-by-6 feet. The analogous estimate for this project, based on the work in Carlton Park, is $108,500. This is based on the price per foot of material at $4.02.

As part of the planning process, the project manager must determine what resources are needed to complete the project. Resources include the people, equipment, and materials that will be utilized to complete the work. In addition, the project manager must identify the quantity of the needed resources and when the resources are needed for the project. The identification of the resources, the needed quantity, and the schedule of the resources are directly linked to the expected cost of the project work.

Using Parametric Estimating

Parametric estimating uses a mathematical model based on known parameters to predict the cost of a project. The parameters in the model can vary based on the type of work being completed and can be measured by cost per cubic yard, cost per unit, and so on. A complex parameter can be cost per unit, with adjustment factors based on the conditions of the project. The adjustment factors may have additional modifying factors, depending on additional conditions. For example, parametric estimating could say that the cost per square foot of construction is $28 using standard materials, and could then charge additional fees if the client varies the materials.

To use parametric modeling, the factors upon which the model is based must be accurate. The factors within the model are quantifiable and don’t vary much based on the effort applied to the activity. And, finally, the model must be scalable between project sizes. The parametric model using a scalable cost-per-unit approach is depicted next.

There are two types of parametric estimating:

   Regression analysis This statistical approach predicts what future values may be, based on historical values. Regression analysis creates quantitative predictions based on variables within one value to predict variables in another. This form of estimating relies solely on pure statistical math to reveal relationships between variables and predict future values.

   Learning curve This approach is simple: The cost per unit decreases the more units workers complete, because workers learn as they complete the required work and perform the tasks more quickly and efficiently. The estimate is considered parametric, since the formula is based on repetitive activities, such as wiring telephone jacks, painting hotel rooms, or performing other activities that are completed over and over within a project. The cost per unit decreases as the experience increases, because the time to complete the work becomes shorter. Of course, there will always be some cost associated with the work, but there is a reduction in costs as the workers become more experienced in completing the activities.

Using Bottom-Up Estimating

Bottom-up estimating starts from zero, accounts for each component of the WBS, and arrives at a sum for the project. It is completed with the project team and can be one of the most time-consuming methods used to predict project costs. Although this method is more expensive because of the time invested to create the estimate, it is also one of the most accurate methods. A fringe benefit of completing a bottom-up estimate is that the project team may buy into the project work since they see the cost and value of each activity in the project.

Creating a Three-Point Cost Estimate

It’s sometimes risky to use just one cost estimate for a project’s activity, especially when the work hasn’t been completed before. And like any project work, you don’t know how much it’s really going to cost until you pay for it. Issues, errors, delays, and unknown risks can affect the project cost. Three-point estimates are also known as simple averaging estimates. A three-point cost estimate attempts to find the average of the cost of an activity using three factors:

   Optimistic cost estimate

   Most likely cost estimate

   Pessimistic cost estimate

You can then simply sum up the three cost estimate values and divide by 3. Or you can use the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) approach, which is slightly different. PERT is a weighted average to the most likely cost estimate value. The PERT formula is

(optimistic cost estimate + (4 × most likely cost estimate) + pessimistic cost estimate) / 6

Figure 7-1 shows the slight difference between a true average of the costs and the PERT approach.

FIGURE 7-1 Costs can be averaged with PERT or three-point estimates.

In either approach, simple averaging or PERT, you have to create three cost estimates for each activity. This can get tiresome and overwhelming, especially on a larger project. And if you elect to use an average estimate, be certain to document the approach you took and record the actual costs of the project activities for future historical information.

Analyzing Data for Cost Estimating

Data analysis with cost estimating helps the project manager examine the possibilities for cost in a project and provides a broad view of costs. There are three data analysis factors in cost estimating:

   Alternatives analysis Examines the different approaches to the project work, materials, equipment, and supplies. This will expose not only possible cost differences, but also tradeoffs between the alternatives identified.

   Reserve analysis Management and contingency reserves are amounts of monies set aside for risk events related to unknown and known risks in the project, respectively. When risks enter your project and it takes time to deal with the risk events, the project is consuming these reserves. The quicker the project spends the reserves, the more likely the project is going to be over budget.

   Costs of quality I’ll discuss this in more detail in Chapter 8, but for now, the cost of quality describes the monies you’ll have to spend to achieve the quality expectations within the project. Cost of quality can be training, purchasing the right tools and equipment, and other factors that drive costs to achieve quality.

Using Computer Software

Although the PMP examination is vendor-neutral, having a general knowledge of how computer software can assist the project manager is necessary. Several computer programs are available that can streamline project work estimates and increase their accuracy. These tools can include project management software, spreadsheet programs, and simulations.

Making Decisions in Cost Estimating

Decisions have to be made in cost estimating, like in all areas of project management. Decision-making isn’t always a solo activity for the project manager. Experts, the project team, and stakeholders can make cost estimating decisions if it’s appropriate for them to do so. You might also rely on voting for cost estimates, just as you can with duration estimates, to create accurate, reliable estimates for the project.

Analyzing Cost Estimating Results

The output of cost estimating is the actual cost estimates of the resources required to complete the project work. The estimate is typically quantitative and can be presented in detail against the WBS components or summarized in terms of a grand total according to various phases of the project or its major deliverables. Each resource in the project must be accounted for and assigned to a cost category. Categories include the following:

   Labor costs

   Material costs

   Travel costs

   Supplies costs

   Hardware costs

   Software costs

   Special categories (inflation, cost reserve, and so on)

The cost of the project is expressed in monetary terms, such as dollars, euros, or yen, so management can compare projects based on costs. It may be acceptable, depending on the demands of the performing organization, to provide estimates in staffing hours or days of work to complete the project along with the estimated costs.

Because projects have risks, the cost of the risks should be identified along with the cost of the risk responses. The project manager should list the risks, their expected risk event values, and the response to each risk should it come into play. We’ll cover risk management in detail in Chapter 11.

Change requests often affect the project cost. Chances are, if the project scope increases in size, the project budget will reflect these changes. When a change request is approved, the project manager must make the appropriate change to the cost baseline. A failure to offset approved changes with an appropriate monetary amount will skew the project’s cost baselines and show a false variance. With all costs estimates, you’ll also include a basis of estimates; you have to document how the estimate was created and a range of variance or degree of confidence for the estimate created.

Refining the Cost Estimates

Cost estimates can also pass through progressive elaboration. As more details are acquired as the project progresses, the estimates are refined. Industry guidelines and organizational policies may define how the estimates are refined, but there are three generally accepted categories of estimating accuracy:

   Rough order of magnitude (ROM) This estimate is “rough” and is used during the initiating processes and in top-down estimates. The range of variance for the estimate can be from –25 percent to +75 percent.

   Budget estimate This estimate is also somewhat broad and is used early in the planning processes and also in top-down estimates. The range of variance for the estimate can be from –10 percent to +25 percent.

   Definitive estimates This estimate type is one of the most accurate. It’s used late in the planning processes and is associated with bottom-up estimating. The range of variance for the estimate can be from –5 percent to +10 percent.

Considering the Supporting Detail

Once the estimates have been completed, the basis of the estimates must be organized and documented to show how they were created. This material, even the notes that contributed to the estimates, may provide valuable information later in the project. Specifically, the supporting detail includes the following:

   Information on the project scope work This may be provided by referencing the WBS.

   Information on the approach used in developing the cost estimates This can include how the estimate was accomplished and the parties involved with creating the estimate.

   Information on the assumptions and constraints made while developing the cost estimates Assumptions and constraints can be wrong and can change the entire cost estimate. The project manager must list what assumptions and constraints were made during the cost estimate in order to communicate with stakeholders how she arrived at the estimate.

   Information on the range of variance in the estimate For example, based on the estimating method used, the project cost may be $220,000 ± $15,000. This project cost may be as low as $205,000 or as high as $235,000.

   Risk considerations Risks must be considered for their financial impact on the project.

   Confidence level in the estimate The degree of confidence in the estimate is also included. If you’ve never done a project like this one before, the confidence level may be low, as opposed to a project for which you’ve done this type of work many times before.

CERTIFICATION OBJECTIVE 7.03

Creating a Project Budget

Cost budgeting is the process of assigning a cost to an individual work package. The sum of the costs of the individual work packages contribute to the predicted cost for the entire project. This is cost aggregation. The goal of this process is to assign costs to the work in the project so it can be measured for performance. This is the creation of the cost baseline, as shown here:

Cost budgeting and cost estimates may go hand in hand, but estimating should be completed before a budget is requested—or assigned. Cost budgeting applies the cost estimates over time. This results in a time-phased estimate for cost, which enables an organization to predict cash flow needs. Cost estimates show costs by category, whereas a cost budget shows costs across time. There are six process inputs for developing the project budget:

   Project management plan Specifically, the cost management plan, resource management plan, and the scope baseline

   Project documents You’ll reference the basis of estimates, cost estimates, project schedule, and the risk register

   Agreements Contracts with suppliers, or if you’re completing the work for another entity, the contractual agreement between your organization and your customer

   Business documents Business case and the benefits management plan

   Enterprise environmental factors Exchange rates for international projects

   Organizational process assets Cost-budgeting policies, historical information, cost-budgeting tools, and reporting methods

Developing the Project Budget

Many of the tools and techniques used to create the project cost estimates are also used to create the project budget. The following is a quick listing of the tools you can expect to see on the PMP exam:

   Cost aggregation Costs are parallel to each WBS work package. The costs of each work package are aggregated to their corresponding control accounts. Each control account is then aggregated to the sum of the project costs.

   Reserve analysis You should be familiar with two reserves for your PMP exam. The first you’ve already learned about: the risk contingency reserve. The second cost reserve is the management reserve, and this chunk of cash is for unplanned changes to the project scope and cost. It’s a buffer of cash for fluctuations for cost, errors, or other increases in project cost. These reserves are not part of the cost baseline but are part of the project budget. In other words, you don’t use these funds unless there’s a problem in the project.

   Expert judgment Subject matter experts can be consultants, vendors, internal stakeholders, project team members, and other stakeholders who can help budget the project work. You might also rely on trade groups and other entities within your organization.

   Historical information review This approach uses a parametric model to extrapolate what costs will be for a project (for example, cost per hour and cost per unit). It can include variables and points based on conditions. This approach might also use a top-down estimate type based on historical information. A top-down estimate is also known as an analogous estimate type.

   Funding limit reconciliation Organizations have only so much cash to allot to projects—and no, you can’t have all the monies right now. Funding limit reconciliation is an organization’s approach to managing cash flow against the project deliverables based on a schedule, milestone accomplishments, or data constraints. This helps an organization plan when monies will be devoted to a project rather than using all of the funds available at the start of a project. In other words, the monies for a project budget will become available based on dates and/or deliverables. If the project doesn’t hit predetermined dates and products that were set as milestones, the additional funding becomes questionable.

   Financing On larger projects you may experience financing concerns and the cost of the financing. Interest rates, depreciation, and time value of money are all considerations when financing a project.

Creating the Cost Baseline

A project’s cost baseline measures performance and predicts the expenses over the life of the project, including the management reserve. It’s usually shown as an S-curve, as in Figure 7-2. The cost baseline allows the project manager and management to predict when the project will be spending monies and over what time period. Any discrepancies early on between the predicted baseline and the actual costs serve as a signal that the project is slipping.

FIGURE 7-2 Cost baselines show predicted project and phase performance.

Large projects that have multiple deliverables may use multiple cost baselines to illustrate the costs within each phase. In addition, larger projects may use cost baselines to predict spending plans, cash flows of the project, and overall project performance.

Establishing Project Funding Requirements

The project’s cost baseline can help the project manager and the organization determine when the project will need cash infusions. Based on phases, milestones, and capital expenses, the project funding requirements can be mapped to the project schedule and the organization can plan accordingly. This is where the concept of project step funding originates. The curve of the project’s timeline is funded in steps, where “step” is an amount of funds allotted to the project to reach the next milestone in the project.

CERTIFICATION OBJECTIVE 7.04

Implementing Cost Control

Cost control focuses on the ability of costs to change and on the ways of allowing or preventing cost changes from happening. When a change does occur, the project manager must document the change through the integrated change control process, update the cost baseline, define the reason why the change occurred, and, if necessary, create a variance report. Cost control is concerned with understanding why the cost variances, both good and bad, have occurred. The “why” behind the variances enables the project manager to make appropriate decisions on future project actions.

Ignoring the project cost variances may cause the project to suffer from budget shortages, additional risks, or scheduling problems. When cost variances happen, they must be examined, recorded, and investigated. Cost control allows the project manager to confront the problem, find a solution, and then act accordingly. Specifically, cost control focuses on the following activities:

   Controlling causes of change to ensure that the changes are needed

   Controlling and documenting changes to the cost baseline as they happen

   Controlling changes in the project and their influence on cost

   Performing cost monitoring to recognize and understand cost variances

   Recording appropriate cost changes in the cost baseline

   Preventing unauthorized changes to the cost baseline

   Communicating the cost changes to the proper stakeholders

   Working to bring and maintain costs within an acceptable range

Considering Cost Control Inputs

To implement cost control, the project manager must rely on several documents and processes:

   Cost management plan The cost management plan dictates how cost variances will be managed.

   Cost baseline The cost baseline is the expected cost the project will incur. This time-phased budget reflects the amount that will be spent throughout the project. Recall that the cost performance baseline is a tool used to measure project performance. And, yes, it’s the same thing as the cost baseline.

   Performance measurement baseline Used with earned value management to determine if corrective actions, preventive actions, or a change is required in the project.

   Project funding requirements The funds for a project are not allotted all at once, but stair-stepped in alignment with project deliverables. Thus, as the project moves toward completion, additional funding is allotted. This allows for cash-flow forecasting. In other words, an organization doesn’t need to allot all of the project’s budget at the start of the project, but it can predict, based on expected income, that all of the project’s budget will be available in incremental steps.

   Work performance data This includes raw data on project progress, status of project activities, status of project deliverables, and information about the project costs and the cost of the balance of the project work.

   Organizational process assets One category of inputs for cost control are the existing methods, forms, templates, and guidelines in the organization’s organizational process assets.

   Lessons learned register Lessons learned are also updated as a result of this process. You’ll update the lessons learned register throughout the project.

Managing Changes to Costs

Sometimes a project manager must add or remove costs from a project. The cost change control system is part of the integrated change control system and documents the procedures to request, approve, and incorporate changes to project costs.

When a cost change enters the system, the project manager must create the appropriate paperwork and follow a tracking system and procedures to obtain approval on the proposed change. If a change gets approved, the cost baseline is updated to reflect the approved changes. If a request gets denied, the denial must be documented for future reference.

CERTIFICATION OBJECTIVE 7.05

Measuring Project Performance

Earned value management (EVM) is the process of measuring the performance of project work against a plan to identify variances. It can also be useful in predicting future variances and the final costs at completion. EVM is a system of mathematical formulas that compares work performed against work planned and measures the actual cost of the work performed. It’s an important part of cost control because it allows a project manager to predict future variances from the expenses to date within the project.

See the video “Earned Value Management.”

In regard to cost management, EVM is concerned with the relationships among three formulas that reflect project performance. Figure 7-3 demonstrates the connection between the following EVM values:

FIGURE 7-3 Earned value management measures project performance.

   Planned value (PV) Planned value is the work scheduled and the budget authorized to accomplish that work. For example, if a project has a budget of $100,000 and month six represents 50 percent of the project work, the PV for month six is $50,000. The entire project’s planned value—that is, what the project should be worth at completion—is known as the budget at completion (BAC). You might also see the sum of the planned value called the performance measurement baseline.

   Earned value (EV) Earned value is the physical work completed to date and the authorized budget for that work. For example, if a project has a budget of $100,000 and the work completed to date represents 25 percent of the entire project work, its EV is $25,000.

   Actual cost (AC) Actual cost is the actual amount of monies the project has required to date. For example, if a project has a budget of $100,000 and $35,000 has been spent on the project to date, the AC of the project would be $35,000.

These three values offer key information about the worth of the project to date (EV), the cost of the project work to date (AC), and the planned value of the work to date (PV).

Finding the Variances

At the end of the project, will there be a budget variance (VAR)? Any variance at the end of the project is calculated by subtracting the actual costs (ACs) of the project work from the budget at completion (BAC). The term “budget at completion” refers to the estimated budget at completion—what you and the project customer agree the project will likely cost. Of course, you don’t actually know how much the project will cost until it’s completely finished. So throughout the project, a variance is any result that is different from what is planned or expected.

Cost Variances

The cost variance (CV) is the difference between the earned value (EV) and the actual costs (AC). For example, for a project that has a budget of $200,000 and has earned, or completed, 10 percent of the project value, the EV is $20,000. However, due to some unforeseen incidents, the project manager had to spend $25,000 to complete that $20,000 worth of work. The AC of the project, at this point, is $25,000 and the cost variance is –$5000. Thus, the equation for cost variance is CV = EV – AC.

Schedule Variances

A schedule variance (SV) is the value that represents the difference between where the project was planned to be at a certain point in time and where the project actually is. For example, consider a project with a budget of $200,000 that’s expected to last two years. At the end of year one, the project team has planned that the project be 60 percent complete. Thus, the planned value (PV) for 60 percent completion equates to $120,000—the expected worth of the project work at the end of year one. But let’s say that at the end of year one the project is only 40 percent complete. The EV at the end of year one is, therefore, $80,000. The difference between the PV and the EV is the SV: –$40,000. The equation for schedule variance is SV = EV – PV.

Calculating the Cost Performance Index

The cost performance index (CPI) shows the amount of work the project is completing per dollar spent on the project. In other words, a CPI of 0.93 means it is costing $1.00 for every 93 cents’ worth of work. Or you could say the project is losing 7 cents on every dollar spent on the project. Let’s say a project has an EV of $25,000 and an AC of $27,000. The CPI for this project is thus 0.93. The closer the number is to 1, the better the project is doing. The equation for cost performance index is CPI = EV / AC.

CPI is a value that shows how the project costs are performing to plan. It relates the work you’ve accomplished to the amount you’ve spent to accomplish it. A CPI of less than 1.00 means the project is performing poorly against the plan. However, a CPI of more than 1.00 does not necessarily mean that the project is performing well. It could mean that estimates were inflated or that an expenditure for equipment is late or sitting in accounts payable and has not yet been entered into the project accounting cycle.

Finding the Schedule Performance Index

The schedule performance index (SPI) is similar to the CPI. The SPI, however, reveals how closely the project is on schedule. Again, as with the CPI, the closer the quotient is to 1, the better. The formula for schedule performance index is SPI = EV / PV. In our example, the EV is $20,000, and let’s say the PV, where the project is supposed to be, is calculated as $30,000. The SPI for this project is then 0.67—way off target!

Preparing for the Estimate at Completion

The estimate at completion (EAC) is a hypothesis of what the total cost of the project will be. Before the project begins, the project manager completes an estimate for the project deliverables based on the scope baseline. As the project progresses, in most projects there will be some variances between the cost estimate and the actual cost. The difference between these is the variance for the deliverable.

The EAC is based on experiences in the project so far. There are several different formulas for calculating the EAC, as Figure 7-4 demonstrates. For now, and for the exam, here’s the EAC formula you’ll need to know: EAC = BAC / CPI. In our project, the BAC is $200,000. The CPI was calculated to be 0.80. The EAC for this project, then, is $250,000.

FIGURE 7-4 There are many approaches to calculating the EAC.

Considering Project Performance

Another variation of the EAC is to consider the project performance beyond just the CPI. This approach looks at the project performance, good or bad, and considers the actual costs of the project to date, the budget at completion, and the project’s earned value. This EAC formula is EAC = AC + BAC – EV.

For example, consider a project with a BAC of $350,000 that’s 45 percent complete, though it’s supposed to be 60 percent complete at this point. The EV for this project is 45 percent of the $350,000, which is $157,500. In this scenario, the project has actually spent $185,000—considerably more than what the project should have spent. Let’s plug in this EAC formula. EAC = $185,000 + $350,000 – $157,500. The EAC for this project using this formula would be $377,500.

Consider Project Variances

Sometimes a project may have some wild swings on the project cost variances and the project schedule variances, and you want to take these variances into consideration when predicting the project’s estimate at completion. Usually, it’s the project schedule that’s affecting the project’s ability to meet its cost obligations because the planned value continues to slip, which wrecks the SPI. Add to that the concept that the longer a project takes to complete, the more likely the project costs will increase.

Here’s this windy formula (get out your slide rule): EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV) / (CPI × SPI)]. Let’s try this one using the same values used in the last example. Consider a project with a BAC of $350,000 that’s 45 percent complete, though it’s supposed to be 60 percent complete. The earned value for this project is 45 percent of $350,000, which is $157,500. In this scenario, the project has actually spent $185,000—considerably more than what the project should have. Here are the parts of our formula:

Actual cost = $185,000

Planned value = $210,000

Budget at completion = $350,000

Earned value = $157,500

Cost performance index = 0.85

Schedule performance index = 0.75

Let’s plug these values into the formula EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV) / (CPI × SPI)]:

EAC = $185,000 + [($350,000 – $157,500) / (0.85 × 0.75)]

EAC = $185,000 + (192,500 / 0.64)

EAC = $185,000 + 300,781.25

EAC = $485,781.25

Calculating the To-Complete Performance Index

Imagine a formula that would tell you if the project can match the budget at completion based on current conditions. Or imagine a formula that can predict whether the project can even achieve your new estimate at completion. Well, forget your imagination and just use the to-complete performance index (TCPI). This formula can forecast the likelihood of a project to achieve its goals based on what’s happening in the project currently. There are two different flavors for the TCPI, depending on what you want to accomplish:

   If you want to see whether your project can meet the budget at completion, you’ll use this formula: TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC).

   If you want to see whether your project can meet the newly created estimate at completion, you’ll use this version of the formula: TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC).

Any result greater than 1 in either formula means that you’ll have to be more efficient than you planned to achieve the BAC or the EAC, depending on whichever formula you’ve used. Basically, the larger the resulting number (greater than 1), the less likely you’ll be able to meet your BAC or EAC. For results less than 1, the lower the number, the more likely you’ll be able to reach your BAC or EAC (again, depending on which formula you’ve used).

Finding the Estimate to Complete

The estimate to complete (ETC) shows how much more money will be needed to complete the project. To calculate the ETC, you need to know another formula: the estimate at completion (EAC). Remember that the EAC is what you predict the project will cost based on current conditions. The ETC is a pretty straightforward formula: EAC – AC. Let’s say our EAC was calculated to be $250,000 and our AC is currently $25,000; our ETC would then be $225,000.

Accounting for Flawed Estimates

Imagine a project to install a new operating system on 1000 workstations. One of the assumptions the project team made was that each workstation had the correct hardware to install the operating system automatically. As it turns out, this assumption was wrong, and now the project team must change their approach to installing the system.

Because the assumption to install the operating system was flawed, a new estimate to complete the project is needed, which also means a change request. This is the most accurate approach in estimating how much more the project will cost, but it’s the hardest to do. This new estimate to complete the work is the ETC, which represents how much more money is needed to complete the project work, and its formula is simply a revised estimate of how much more the remaining work will cost to complete. Nothing tricky here.

Accounting for Anomalies

During a project, sometimes weird stuff happens. These anomalies, or weird stuff, can cause project costs to be skewed. For example, consider a project with a $10,000 budget to construct a wooden fence around a property line. One of the project team members makes a mistake while installing the wooden fence and reverses the face of the fencing material. In other words, the material for the outside of the fence faces the wrong direction.

The project now has to invest additional time to remove the fence material, correct the problem, and replace any wood that may have been damaged in the incorrect installation. The project, mistakes and all, is thus considered 20 percent done, so the earned value is $2000. This anomaly likely won’t happen again, but it will add costs to the project.

For these instances, when events happen but the project manager doesn’t expect similar events to happen again, the following ETC formula should be used: ETC = (BAC – EV). Let’s try this out with our fencing project. The project’s EV is only $2000 since the project has barely started. The formula would read ETC = $10,000 – $2000.

Accounting for Typical Variances

This last ETC formula is used when existing variances in the project are expected to be typical of the remaining variances in the project. For example, a project manager has overestimated the competence of the workers to complete the project work. Because the project team is not performing at the level the project manager expected, work is completed late and in a faulty manner. Rework has been a common theme for this project.

The formula for these instances is ETC = (BAC – EV) / CPI. In our example, let’s say the AC is $45,000, the BAC is $250,000, the EV is $37,500, and our CPI is calculated to be 0.83. The ETC formula for this project is ETC = ($250,000 – $37,500) / 0.83. The result of the formula (following the order of operations) is thus $256,024.

Finding the Variance at Completion

A variance is the difference between what was expected and what was experienced. The formula for the variance at completion (VAC) is VAC = BAC – EAC. In our example, the BAC was $200,000 and the EAC was $250,000, so the VAC is predicted to be $50,000.

The Five EVM Formula Rules

For EVM formulas, remember the following five rules:

   Always start with EV.

   Variance means subtraction.

   Index means division.

   Less than 1 is bad in an index (unless it’s the TCPI).

   Negative is bad in a variance.

The formulas for earned value analysis can be completed manually or through project management software. For the exam, you’ll want to memorize these formulas. Table 7-1 shows a summary of all the formulas.

TABLE 7-1 A Summary of EVM Formulas

These aren’t much to memorize, I know, but you should. Although you won’t have an overwhelming amount of EVM questions on your exam, they are free points if you know the formulas and can do the math.

I have a present for you. It’s a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet called “EV Worksheet.” It has all of these formulas in action. I recommend you make up some numbers to test your ability to complete these formulas and then plug your values into Excel to confirm your math. Enjoy!

Additional Planning

Planning is an iterative process. Throughout the project, there will be demands for additional planning—and an output of cost control is one of those demands. Consider a project that must complete by a given date and that also has a set budget. The balance between the schedule and the cost must be maintained. The project manager can’t assign a large crew to complete the project work if the budget won’t allow it. The project manager must, through planning, get as creative as possible to figure out an approach to accomplish the project without exceeding the budget.

The balance between cost and schedule is an ongoing battle. Although it’s usually easier to get more time than money, this isn’t always the case. Consider, for example, deadlines that can’t be moved—perhaps fines and penalties will be imposed if a deadline is missed, or a deadline centers on the date of a tradeshow, an expo, or the start of the school year.

Using Computers

It’s hard to imagine a project, especially a large project, moving forward without the use of computers. Project managers can rely on project management software and spreadsheet programs to assist them in calculating actual costs, earned value, and planned value.

It’s not difficult to create a spreadsheet with the appropriate earned value formulas. After you’ve created the spreadsheet, you can save it as a template and use it on multiple projects. If you want, and if your software allows it, you can tie in multiple earned value spreadsheets to a master file to track all of your projects at a glance.

Considering the Cost Control Results

Cost control is an ongoing process throughout the project. The project manager must actively monitor the project for variances to costs. Specifically, the project manager should always do the following:

   Monitor cost variances and then understand why variances have occurred.

   Update the cost baseline as needed based on approved changes.

   Work with the conditions and stakeholders to prevent unnecessary changes to the cost baseline.

   Communicate to the appropriate stakeholders cost changes as they occur.

   Maintain costs within an acceptable and agreed-upon range.

   Collect work performance information to compare the work against the cost baseline.

Creating Change Requests

As the project progresses and more detail becomes available, there may be a need to update the cost estimates. A revision to the cost estimates requires communication with the key stakeholders to share why the costs were revised. A revision to the cost estimates may have a ripple effect: Other parts of the project may need to be adjusted to account for the changes in cost, the sequence of events may need to be reordered, and resources may have to be changed. In some instances, the revision of the estimates may be expected, as with phased-gate estimating in a lengthy project.

Throughout a project, the project manager will apply corrective actions. Corrective actions are applied to project performance to bring the project back into alignment with the project plan. Corrective actions can be scheduling changes, a shift in resources, or a different approach to completing the project work—essentially any action, even nudges or shoves, designed to bring the project back to its expected level of performance.

Updating the budget is slightly different from revising a cost estimate. Budget updates allow the cost baseline to be changed. The cost baseline is the “before project snapshot” of what the total project scope and the individual WBS components should cost. Should the project scope grow, as shown next, the cost will also likely change to be able to fulfill the new scope.

If a project undergoes drastic changes—due to large changes to the project scope, false assumptions, or new demands from the customer—it may be necessary to rebaseline the project cost. Rebaselining is done only in drastic changes, because it essentially resets the project.

Updating Lessons Learned

As part of cost control, the project manager should update the lessons learned document to reflect the decisions behind the actions taken. For example, the project manager should identify the following:

   Any changes to the cost baseline and why they were approved

   Corrective actions and why they were implemented

   Cost control challenges and issues, and how they were resolved

   Other cost control information that may be beneficial for other projects

CERTIFICATION SUMMARY

Several factors contribute to the costs on any project: the expense of the labor to complete the project, the expense of materials needed to complete the project, and the expense of the equipment needed to complete a project. These expenses must be estimated, planned for, and monitored for a project to finish on budget.

Management and customers will want to know how much a project is going to cost so that they can determine whether the project is worth doing, whether the project deliverable will be worth the cost, and if the project will be profitable. The estimates for project costs can come in several forms:

   Analogous estimating Uses similar historical information to predict the cost of the current project.

   Top-down estimating Uses a similar project as a cost baseline and factors in current project conditions to predict costs. Note that analogous estimating is also top-down estimating.

   Parametric estimating Uses a parameter, such as cost per metric ton, to predict project costs.

   Bottom-up estimating Starts at zero and adds expenses from the bottom up.

The resources needed to complete a project may be one of the biggest expenses in the project’s budget. The activities the resources complete must be worthy of the resources’ time. In other words, the project manager does not want to assign a $125-per-hour engineer to perform filing that a $15-per-hour administrative assistant is qualified to do. Accurate assignment of project resources to project activities helps prevent waste.

Projects also involve four different kinds of costs:

   Direct costs These costs are attributed directly to the project and cannot be shared with operations or other projects.

   Indirect costs These costs can be shared across multiple projects that use the same resources—such as for a training room or piece of equipment.

   Variable costs These costs vary depending on the conditions within the project.

   Fixed costs These costs remain the same throughout the project.

There is one last cost, called opportunity cost, that’s usually calculated by the business, not the project manager, but is still important to understand. This is a special cost, because it really doesn’t cost the organization anything out of pocket but represents the cost of a lost opportunity. Opportunity costs are an expense that companies that complete projects for other organizations should realize. When an organization that completes projects for others must forgo one project in order to complete the other, the value of the forgone project is the opportunity cost. For example, let’s say a company has two projects it can complete, but it must choose only one of them. Project A is worth $75,000, while Project B is worth $50,000. If the company chooses Project A, the opportunity cost is thus $50,000 because the company misses out on the opportunity.

KEY TERMS

If you’re serious about passing the PMP exam, memorize these terms and their definitions. For maximum value, create your own flashcards based on these definitions and review them daily.

actual costs   The amount of funds the project has spent to date. The difference between earned value and actual costs will reveal the cost variance.

analogous estimating   A technique that relies on historical information to predict estimates for current projects. Analogous estimating is also known as top-down estimating and is a form of expert judgment.

bottom-up estimating   A technique by which an estimate for each component in the WBS is developed and then totaled for an overall project budget. This is the most time-consuming method to complete, but it provides the most accurate estimate.

budget at completion   The predicted budget for the project; what the project should cost when it is completed. Budget at completion represents 100 percent of the planned value for the project’s completion.

cost baseline   Usually shown in an S-curve, the cost baseline indicates the expected project cost. It enables the project manager and management to predict when the project will be spending monies and over what duration. The purpose of the cost baseline is to measure and predict project performance.

cost budgeting   A process of assigning a cost to an individual work package. This process shows costs over time. The cost budget results in an S-curve that becomes the cost baseline for the project.

cost change control   This is part of the integrated change control system and documents the procedures to request, approve, and incorporate changes to project costs.

cost control   An active process to control causes of cost changes, to document cost changes, and to monitor cost fluctuations within the project. When changes occur that affect cost, the cost baseline must be updated.

cost estimating   The process of calculating the costs, by category, of the identified resources to complete the project work.

cost management plan   A subsidiary plan of the overall project management plan that defines how costs will be estimated, budgeted, and controlled.

cost performance index   The process of calculating the costs, by category, of the identified resources to complete the project work.

cost variance   The difference between the earned value and the actual costs.

direct costs   Costs that are attributed directly to the project and cannot be shared with operations or other projects.

earned value   The value of the work that has been completed and the budget for that work: EV = % Complete × BAC.

earned value management   EVM integrates scope, schedule, and cost to provide an objective, scalable, point-in-time assessment of the project. EVM calculates the performance of the project and compares current performance against plan. It can also be a harbinger of things to come. Results early in the project can predict the likelihood of the project’s success or failure.

estimate at completion   A hypothesis of what the total cost of the project will be. Before the project begins, the project manager completes an estimate for the project deliverables based on the WBS. As the project progresses, there will likely be some variances between the cost estimate and the actual cost. The EAC is calculated to predict the new estimate at completion.

estimate to complete   Represents how much more money is needed to complete the project work.

estimating publications   Typically, a commercial reference to help the project estimator confirm and predict the accuracy of estimates. If a project manager elects to use one of these commercial databases, the estimate should include a pointer to this document for future reference and verification.

fixed costs   Costs that remain the same throughout the project.

indirect costs   Costs that can be shared across multiple projects and that use the same resources—such as costs for a training room or piece of equipment.

parametric modeling   A mathematical model based on known parameters to predict the cost of a project. The parameters in the model can vary based on the type of work being done. A parameter can be cost per cubic yard, cost per unit, and so on.

planned value   The value of the work that should be completed by a specific time in the project schedule.

risk   An uncertain event that can have a positive or negative influence on a project’s success. Risk can affect the project costs, project schedule, and often both. All risks and their statuses should be recorded in the risk register.

schedule performance index   Reveals the efficiency of work. The closer the quotient is to 1, the better: SPI = EV / PV.

schedule variance   The difference between the planned work and the earned work.

to-complete performance index   An EVM formula that can forecast the likelihood of a project to achieve its goals based on what’s currently happening in the project.

top-down estimating   A technique that bases the current project’s cost estimate on the total cost of a similar project. A percentage of the similar project’s total cost may be added to or subtracted from the total, depending on the size of the current project.

variable costs   Costs that vary, depending on the conditions within the project.

variance   The time or cost difference between what was planned and what was actually experienced.

TWO-MINUTE DRILL

Planning the Project Costs

   Planning the project costs is the first process you’ll encounter in the project cost management knowledge area. This process creates the cost management plan, which defines how the project costs will be estimated, spent, managed, and controlled throughout all of the project activities.

   To plan the project costs, you’ll need the project management plan, the project charter, the rules of the enterprise environmental factors, and any organizational process assets. Organizational process assets can help with planning if you’ve done similar projects in the past and can use the historical information as a template for the current project.

   The cost management plan also defines the earned value management formulas your project will utilize if appropriate. Recall that the purpose of earned value management is to show performance in the project and allow for forecasting of the project’s overall performance based on current information.

Estimating the Project Costs

   The project manager must know what resources are needed to complete the project work. How will the project be completed without the resources? The project manager must know the people, the equipment, materials, and other resources needed to make the vision of the project a reality. Once the resources are identified, the costs of the resources can be calculated.

   The resources also must be known so the project manager can predict, monitor, and control what the project costs are expected to be. The relationship between the project vision and the needed resources can help the project manager work within the predicted costs.

   Resources to complete a project also include services, leases, real estate, and other components that contribute to the project work being completed.

   The rough order of magnitude estimate is used during the initiating processes and in top-down estimates. The range of variance for the estimate can be from –25 percent to +75 percent.

   The budget estimate is also somewhat broad and is used early in the planning processes and in top-down estimates. The range of variance for the estimate can be from –10 percent to +25 percent.

   The definitive estimate is one of the most accurate. It’s used late in the planning processes and is associated with bottom-up estimating. The range of variance for the estimate can be from –5 percent to +10 percent.

   In analogous estimating, the project manager uses a similar project to predict what the costs of the current project should be. It is less accurate but easier and faster to complete than other methods.

   In parametric estimating, the project manager uses a parameter for units of goods and time to calculate what the project will cost—for example, cost per hour, cost per metric ton, or cost per cubic yard.

Creating a Project Budget

   Cost aggregation maps the overall costs to each WBS work package. The costs of each work package are aggregated to their corresponding control accounts. Each control account then is aggregated to the sum of the project costs.

   Funding limit reconciliation is an organization’s approach to managing cash flow against the project deliverables based on a schedule, milestone accomplishment, or data constraints. This helps an organization plan when monies will be devoted to a project rather than using all of the funds available at the start of a project. In other words, the monies for a project budget will become available based on dates and/or deliverables.

Implementing Cost Control

   The cost management plan documents how the project manager will react to cost variances within the project. The performing organization will likely have policies and procedures on unacceptable variances.

   Variances that cross a given threshold may require the project manager to create a variance report to explain the variance, why it has happened, and what corrective action has been applied to prevent the variance from reoccurring.

   Cost control is the process of monitoring and documenting cost changes, whether they are allowed to occur or are prevented from occurring. The project manager studies the cost changes to understand why the change has happened and then makes corrective actions to the project if needed.

Measuring Project Performance

   Planned value (PV) includes the work scheduled and the budget authorized to accomplish that work. The entire project’s planned value—that is, what the project should be worth at completion—is known as the budget at completion. You might also see the sum of the planned value called the performance measurement baseline.

   Earned value (EV) is the physical work completed to date and the authorized budget for that work.

   Actual cost is the actual amount of monies the project has required to date.

   The cost variance is the difference between the earned value and the actual cost.

   A schedule variance (SV) is the value that represents the difference between where the project actually is (EV) and where the project was planned to be at a certain point in time (PV).

   The cost performance index (CPI) shows the amount of work the project is completing per dollar spent on the project.

   The schedule performance index (SPI) reveals the efficiency of work by comparing where the project is currently against where it was scheduled to be.

   The estimate at completion (EAC) is a hypothesis of what the total cost of the project will be.

   The estimate to complete (ETC) shows how much more money will be needed to complete the project.

   The to-complete performance index (TCPI) can forecast the likelihood of a project to achieve its goals based on what’s happening in the project currently.

   Cost control can cause changes and updates within the project for the project scope, schedule, or overall costs. If the cost of material increases, there may be tradeoffs in the project scope to afford the existing materials. For example, the stakeholders or project manager could elect to use a lower grade of material or remove the deliverable from scope, if that’s feasible, to keep the costs in check. Either way, if the cost of materials increases, there will be ripples throughout the project.

   Updating the budget is slightly different from revising a cost estimate. Budget updates enable the cost baseline to be changed. The cost baseline is the “before project snapshot” of what the total project scope and the individual WBS components should cost.

   Errors in the project can cause costs to increase. Corrective actions are an effort, technically a change request, to bring the project back into alignment with the cost baseline and what was planned.

SELF TEST

1.   You are the project manager for your organization and you need to create a cost estimate for your current project. This project is similar to the ABG Project you completed a few months ago, so you report to your program manager that you’ll be using analogous estimating. Which of the following best describes analogous estimating?

A.   Regression analysis

B.   Bottom-up estimating

C.   Less accurate

D.   More accurate

2.   You are the project manager for the GHG Project. You are about to create the cost estimates for the project. Which input to this process will help you the most?

A.   Parametric modeling

B.   WBS

C.   Project scope

D.   Requirements document

3.   You are the project manager for the JKH Project. You have elected to use parametric estimating in your cost estimating for the project. Which of the following is an example of parametric estimating?

A.   $750 per ton

B.   Historical information from a similar project

C.   Estimates built bottom-up based on the WBS

D.   Estimates based on top-down budgeting

4.   You are the project manager for a new technology implementation project. Management has requested that your estimates be as exact as possible. Which one of the following methods of estimating will provide the most accurate estimate?

A.   Top-down estimating

B.   Top-down budgeting

C.   Bottom-up estimating

D.   Parametric estimating

5.   Your company has been hired to install tile in 1000 hotel rooms. All rooms will be identical in nature and will require the same amount of materials. Your project team has completed the first three hotel rooms, which took an average of six hours each to complete. You calculate the time to install the tile in each hotel room at six hours. The cost for the labor for your new project team is calculated at $700 per room. Your project sponsor disagrees with your labor estimate. Why?

A.   You haven’t completed one hotel room yet, so you don’t know how long the work will actually take.

B.   You have not factored in all of the effort applied to the work.

C.   You have not considered the law of diminishing returns.

D.   You have not considered the learning curve.

6.   You are the project manager for a construction project to build 17 cabins. All of the cabins will be identical in nature. The contract for the project is set at a fixed cost, the incentive being that the faster the project work is completed, the more profitable the job. Management has requested that you study the work method to determine a faster, less costly, and better method of completing the project. This is an example of which of the following?

A.   Time constraint

B.   Schedule constraint

C.   Value engineering

D.   Learning curve

7.   You are the project manager for a technical implementation project. The customer has requested that you factor in the after-the-project costs, such as maintenance and service. This is an example of which one of the following?

A.   Life-cycle costs

B.   Scope creep

C.   Project spin-off

D.   Operations

8.   You are the project manager for your organization and you need to create a cost estimate for your current project. Your manager informs you that this project requires a precise cost estimate so you need to choose the most accurate estimating approach possible. Which one of the following provides the least accuracy in estimating?

A.   Rough order of magnitude

B.   Budget estimate

C.   Definitive estimate

D.   WBS estimate

9.   As a PMP candidate, you need to be able to compare and contrast project plans, their components, and how the plans are used within a live project. Based on this information, which one of the following is true?

A.   The cost management plan controls how change management affects the BAC.

B.   The cost management plan controls how cost variances will be managed.

C.   The cost management plan controls how the project manager may update the cost estimates.

D.   The cost management plan controls how the BAC may be adjusted.

10.   You are the project manager for project with a manufacturer. Project team members report they are 30 percent complete with the project. You have spent $25,000 out of the project’s $250,000 budget. What is the earned value for this project?

A.   10 percent

B.   $75,000

C.   $25,000

D.   Not enough information to know

11.   You and your project team are about to enter a meeting to determine project costs. You have elected to use bottom-up estimating and will base your estimates on the WBS. Which one of the following is not an attribute of bottom-up estimating?

A.   People doing the work create the estimates.

B.   It creates a more accurate estimate.

C.   It’s more expensive to do than other methods.

D.   It’s less expensive to do than other methods.

12.   What is the present value if an organization expects to make $100,000 four years from now and the annual interest rate is 6 percent?

A.   $100,000

B.   $79,000

C.   $25,000

D.   Zero

13.   You are the project manager for the construction of a new hotel. Before you begin the cost budgeting process, what is needed?

A.   Cost estimates and project schedule

B.   Cost estimates and supporting detail

C.   EAC and BAC

D.   A parametric model to arrive at the costs submitted

14.   You are the project manager of the MNJ Project. Your project is falling behind schedule, and you have already spent $130,000 of your $150,000 budget. What do you call the $130,000?

A.   Planned value

B.   Present value

C.   Sunk costs

D.   Capital expenditure

15.   You are the project manager of the JHD Project. Your project will cost your organization $250,000 to complete over the next eight months. Once the project is completed, the deliverables will begin earning the company $3500 per month. Which of the following represents the time to recover the costs of the project?

A.   Not enough information to know

B.   8 months

C.   72 months

D.   5 years

16.   You are the project manager for a consulting company. Your company has two possible projects to manage, but they can choose only one. Project KJH is worth $17,000, while Project ADS is worth $22,000. Management elects to choose Project ADS. The opportunity cost of this choice is which one of the following?

A.   $5000

B.   $17,000

C.   $22,000

D.   Zero, because project ADS is worth more than Project KJH

17.   You are the project manager for the CSR Training Project, and 21,000 customer service reps are invited to attend the training session. Attendance is optional. You have calculated the costs of the training facility, but the workbook expense depends on how many students register for the class. For every 5000 workbooks created, the cost is reduced by a percentage of the original printing cost. The workbook expense is an example of which one of the following?

A.   Fixed costs

B.   Parametric costs

C.   Variable costs

D.   Indirect costs

18.   You are the project manager of a construction project scheduled to last 24 months. You have elected to rent a piece of equipment for the duration of the project, even though you will need the equipment only periodically throughout the project. The cost of the equipment rental per month is $890. This is an example of which of the following?

A.   Fixed costs

B.   Parametric costs

C.   Variable costs

D.   Indirect costs

19.   You are the project manager for the Hardware Inventory Project. You have a piece of equipment that was purchased recently for $10,000 and is expected to last five years in production. At the end of the five years, the expected worth of the equipment will be $1000. Using straight-line depreciation, what is the amount that can be written off each year?

A.   Zero

B.   $1000

C.   $1800

D.   $2000

20.   You are the project manager of the LKG Project. The project has a budget of $290,000 and is expected to last three years. The project is now 10 percent complete and is on schedule. What is the BAC?

A.   $29,000

B.   $290,000

C.   $96,666

D.   $9,666

21.   Your project has a budget of $130,000 and is expected to last ten months, with the work and budget spread evenly across all months. The project is now in month three, the work is on schedule, but you have spent $65,000 of the project budget. What is your variance?

A.   $65,000

B.   $39,000

C.   $26,000

D.   $64,999

22.   You are the project manager of the Carpet Installation Project for a new building. Your BAC is $600,000. You are now 40 percent complete with the project, though your plan called for you to be 45 percent complete with the work by this time. What is your earned value?

A.   $240,000

B.   $270,000

C.   $30,000

D.   –$30,000

23.   You are the project manager of the Carpet Installation Project for a new building. Your BAC is $600,000. You have spent $270,000 of your budget. You are now 40 percent done with the project, though your plan called for you to be 45 percent done with the work by this time. What is your CPI?

A.   100

B.   89

C.   0.89

D.   0.79

24.   You are the project manager for the Facility Installation Project. The project calls for 1500 units to be installed in a new baseball stadium. Your team wants to know why you have not assigned the same amount of time for the last 800 units that you assigned for the first 500 units. You tell them it is because of the learning curve. Which one of the following best describes this theory?

A.   Production increases as workers become more efficient with the installation procedure.

B.   Efficiency increases as workers become more familiar with the installation procedure.

C.   Costs decrease as workers complete more of the installation procedure.

D.   Time decreases as workers complete more of the installation procedure in the final phases of a project.

25.   Beth is a project manager for her company and she has been assigned a new project. During project planning, Beth needs to create a cost estimate for her project. Of the following, which one is the most reliable source of information for estimating project costs that Beth may use?

A.   Historical information from a recently completed project

B.   An SME’s opinion

C.   Recollections of team members that have worked on similar projects

D.   Vendors’ whitepapers

SELF TEST ANSWERS

1.   You are the project manager for your organization and you need to create a cost estimate for your current project. This project is similar to the ABG Project you completed a few months ago, so you report to your program manager that you’ll be using analogous estimating. Which of the following best describes analogous estimating?

A.   Regression analysis

B.   Bottom-up estimating

C.   Less accurate

D.   More accurate

2.   You are the project manager for the GHG Project. You are about to create the cost estimates for the project. Which input to this process will help you the most?

A.   Parametric modeling

B.   WBS

C.   Project scope

D.   Requirements document

3.   You are the project manager for the JKH Project. You have elected to use parametric estimating in your cost estimating for the project. Which of the following is an example of parametric estimating?

A.   $750 per ton

B.   Historical information from a similar project

C.   Estimates built bottom-up based on the WBS

D.   Estimates based on top-down budgeting

4.   You are the project manager for a new technology implementation project. Management has requested that your estimates be as exact as possible. Which one of the following methods of estimating will provide the most accurate estimate?

A.   Top-down estimating

B.   Top-down budgeting

C.   Bottom-up estimating

D.   Parametric estimating

5.   Your company has been hired to install tile in 1000 hotel rooms. All rooms will be identical in nature and will require the same amount of materials. Your project team has completed the first three hotel rooms, which took an average of six hours each to complete. You calculate the time to install the tile in each hotel room at six hours. The cost for the labor for your new project team is calculated at $700 per room. Your project sponsor disagrees with your labor estimate. Why?

A.   You haven’t completed one hotel room yet, so you don’t know how long the work will actually take.

B.   You have not factored in all of the effort applied to the work.

C.   You have not considered the law of diminishing returns.

D.   You have not considered the learning curve.

6.   You are the project manager for a construction project to build 17 cabins. All of the cabins will be identical in nature. The contract for the project is set at a fixed cost, the incentive being that the faster the project work is completed, the more profitable the job. Management has requested that you study the work method to determine a faster, less costly, and better method of completing the project. This is an example of which of the following?

A.   Time constraint

B.   Schedule constraint

C.   Value engineering

D.   Learning curve

7.   You are the project manager for a technical implementation project. The customer has requested that you factor in the after-the-project costs, such as maintenance and service. This is an example of which one of the following?

A.   Life-cycle costs

B.   Scope creep

C.   Project spin-off

D.   Operations

8.   You are the project manager for your organization and you need to create a cost estimate for your current project. Your manager informs you that this project requires a precise cost estimate so you need to choose the most accurate estimating approach possible. Which one of the following provides the least accuracy in estimating?

A.   Rough order of magnitude

B.   Budget estimate

C.   Definitive estimate

D.   WBS estimate

9.   As a PMP candidate, you need to be able to compare and contrast project plans, their components, and how the plans are used within a live project. Based on this information, which one of the following is true?

A.   The cost management plan controls how change management affects the BAC.

B.   The cost management plan controls how cost variances will be managed.

C.   The cost management plan controls how the project manager may update the cost estimates.

D.   The cost management plan controls how the BAC may be adjusted.

10.   You are the project manager for project with a manufacturer. Project team members report they are 30 percent complete with the project. You have spent $25,000 out of the project’s $250,000 budget. What is the earned value for this project?

A.   10 percent

B.   $75,000

C.   $25,000

D.   Not enough information to know

11.   You and your project team are about to enter a meeting to determine project costs. You have elected to use bottom-up estimating and will base your estimates on the WBS. Which one of the following is not an attribute of bottom-up estimating?

A.   People doing the work create the estimates.

B.   It creates a more accurate estimate.

C.   It’s more expensive to do than other methods.

D.   It’s less expensive to do than other methods.

12.   What is the present value if an organization expects to make $100,000 four years from now and the annual interest rate is 6 percent?

A.   $100,000

B.   $79,000

C.   $25,000

D.   Zero

13.   You are the project manager for the construction of a new hotel. Before you begin the cost budgeting process, what is needed?

A.   Cost estimates and project schedule

B.   Cost estimates and supporting detail

C.   EAC and BAC

D.   A parametric model used to arrive at the costs submitted

14.   You are the project manager of the MNJ Project. Your project is falling behind schedule, and you have already spent $130,000 of your $150,000 budget. What do you call the $130,000?

A.   Planned value

B.   Present value

C.   Sunk costs

D.   Capital expenditure

15.   You are the project manager of the JHD Project. Your project will cost your organization $250,000 to complete over the next eight months. Once the project is completed, the deliverables will begin earning the company $3500 per month. Which of the following represents the time to recover the costs of the project?

A.   Not enough information to know

B.   8 months

C.   72 months

D.   5 years

16.   You are the project manager for a consulting company. Your company has two possible projects to manage, but they can choose only one. Project KJH is worth $17,000, while Project ADS is worth $22,000. Management elects to choose Project ADS. The opportunity cost of this choice is which one of the following?

A.   $5000

B.   $17,000

C.   $22,000

D.   Zero, because project ADS is worth more than Project KJH

17.   You are the project manager for the CSR Training Project, and 21,000 customer service reps are invited to attend the training session. Attendance is optional. You have calculated the costs of the training facility, but the workbook expense depends on how many students register for the class. For every 5000 workbooks created, the cost is reduced by a percentage of the original printing cost. The workbook expense is an example of which one of the following?

A.   Fixed costs

B.   Parametric costs

C.   Variable costs

D.   Indirect costs

18.   You are the project manager of a construction project scheduled to last 24 months. You have elected to rent a piece of equipment for the duration of the project, even though you will need the equipment only periodically throughout the project. The cost of the equipment rental per month is $890. This is an example of which of the following?

A.   Fixed costs

B.   Parametric costs

C.   Variable costs

D.   Indirect costs

19.   You are the project manager for the Hardware Inventory Project. You have a piece of equipment that was purchased recently for $10,000 and is expected to last five years in production. At the end of the five years, the expected worth of the equipment will be $1000. Using straight-line depreciation, what is the amount that can be written off each year?

A.   Zero

B.   $1000

C.   $1800

D.   $2000

20.   You are the project manager of the LKG Project. The project has a budget of $290,000 and is expected to last three years. The project is now 10 percent complete and is on schedule. What is the BAC?

A.   $29,000

B.   $290,000

C.   $96,666

D.   $9,666

21.   Your project has a budget of $130,000 and is expected to last 10 months, with the work and budget spread evenly across all months. The project is now in month three, the work is on schedule, but you have spent $65,000 of the project budget. What is your variance?

A.   $65,000

B.   $39,000

C.   $26,000

D.   $64,999

22.   You are the project manager of the Carpet Installation Project for a new building. Your BAC is $600,000. You are now 40 percent complete with the project, though your plan called for you to be 45 percent complete with the work by this time. What is your earned value?

A.   $240,000

B.   $270,000

C.   $30,000

D.   –$30,000

23.   You are the project manager of the Carpet Installation Project for a new building. Your BAC is $600,000. You have spent $270,000 of your budget. You are now 40 percent done with the project, though your plan called for you to be 45 percent done with the work by this time. What is your CPI?

A.   100

B.   89

C.   0.89

D.   0.79

24.   You are the project manager for the Facility Installation Project. The project calls for 1500 units to be installed in a new baseball stadium. Your team wants to know why you have not assigned the same amount of time for the last 800 units that you assigned for the first 500 units. You tell them it is because of the learning curve. Which one of the following best describes this theory?

A.   Production increases as workers become more efficient with the installation procedure.

B.   Efficiency increases as workers become more familiar with the installation procedure.

C.   Costs decrease as workers complete more of the installation procedure.

D.   Time decreases as workers complete more of the installation procedure in the final phases of a project.

25.   Beth is a project manager for her company and she has been assigned a new project. During project planning, Beth needs to create a cost estimate for her project. Of the following, which one is the most reliable source of information for estimating project costs that Beth may use?

A.   Historical information from a recently completed project

B.   An SME’s opinion

C.   Recollections of team members that have worked on similar projects

D.   Vendors’ whitepapers