Chapter 14
Anticipating Opportunities

The global leader of the future will have the ability to create a clear and compelling vision for his or her organization and a great capacity for communicating the vision in such a way as to inspire and stretch people beyond expectations. First, though, in order to create this vision and to lead others to a destination, the leader must anticipate the opportunities (and also the roadblocks) ahead. The leader must know which direction and which opportunities will take the company where he or she wants it to go.

The critical difference between management and leadership is reflected in the root meanings of the two words—the difference between what it means to handle things and what it means to go places. The unique role of leaders is to take us to places we've never been before.^[1]

In order to "take us places we've never been before," global leaders will spend a good deal of their time focusing on the following four aspects of leadership:

1. Investigating future trends,
2. Anticipating future opportunities,
3. Inspiring people to focus on future opportunities (not just present objectives), and
4. Developing ideas to meet the needs of the new environment.

The rest of this chapter focuses on these four areas.

Investigating Future Trends

Global leaders must pursue information, research future trends, and educate themselves if they are to effectively anticipate opportunities. This relentless pursuit of knowledge gives the leader a particular advantage to perceive and determine the most likely future trends of the industries within which he or she is involved.

Leaders need to be proactive in thinking about the future, and this imperative increases with one's hope and level of responsibility.^[2]

Customers demand better value, better services, and better products; employees (especially knowledge workers) demand more responsibility, more freedom, and more flexibility. The effective leader of the future must research and project future trends in customer and client relations, products and services, and employee retention while balancing "speed to value" in order to stay competitive in the global marketplace. For instance, Sun Microsystems has been a consistent leader in anticipating future customer needs and developing products that meet these needs before the products were considered a requirement. With the next generations of processors expected to integrate several hundred million transistors, just simulating the operations of new designs requires trillions of calculations over a typical two- to five-year design project life cycle. Thus, to be successful, Sun must anticipate future customer needs years before the customer has even gotten used to the current product. It's this innovative anticipation that has helped make Sun a leader in its field.

Also, it is important for the global leader to encourage feedback, input, and communication from customers, clients, and workers, because it is within these arenas that the leader will find the vital sources of information upon which he or she will be able to project the future trends of the industry, the company, and the workplace. One innovative and successful executive consistently challenged her sales force to ask employees to "tell us what our customers are going to need in the future, not just what they need today." This forward thinking on the part of both the employees and the customers, as well as the executive, gave the company insight into what customers wanted from the company in the future.

To be successful, a company must perceive the market's need and deliver it. Companies fail when they ignore the market and push their technology to the market without listening to what the customers are saying. Three key things create success:

1. Ability to listen,

2. Ability to deliver, and

3. Ability to prioritize.^[3]

As Fred Harmon (respected author, Peter Drucker Foundation Thought Leader, and founder of Synthesis Consulting) notes, in determining future trends, leaders must focus on the big picture, especially the forces that are reshaping organizations: technology, freedom, education, demographics, and globalization.^[4] By analyzing the impact of these five forces, the global leader will be far better equipped to anticipate changes and trends within the company and its industry. For instance, as technology rapidly links people and companies around the world, it allows for the crosspollination of ideas, which leads to growth, new products, and different ways of accomplishing goals. As closed societies open their doors and organizations network around the world, the freedom to choose between different products and services affects once-dominating providers. Skill sets and information spread rapidly with education. New generations of leaders, customers, and employees are changing marketing strategies, and with the advent of globalization, new markets, previously closed or unreachable, are opening.

Rather than focusing on a short-term perspective, the global leader must look at the impact of the five forces discussed by Harmon and project trends for the long term. However, it is important to note that in many industries, leaders will need to get used to thinking that long term is only a few years and that change is very rapid. The concept of long-term shareholder value is going to undergo a radical change. The concept of building things 10 to 20 years ahead is going to diminish because of the repetitive changes. It will be increasingly difficult to predict the changes.^[5]

Anticipating Future Opportunities

A global leader's capacity to lead a company toward success and longevity is in large part dependent on his or her recognition of future opportunities. In order to anticipate these opportunities, the global leader must be a strategic thinker capable of visualizing, identifying, and following through.

This planning will include the systematic collection and analysis of information, issues, and factors that relate to the organization, its industry, and the global marketplace, and will make the leader far more capable of effectively anticipating future opportunities. In order to prepare for global leadership, the leader will have to learn from experience, plan and position the company, and take advantage of opportunities.^[6] 3M, a $16 billion diversified technology company with leading positions in healthcare, safety, electronics, telecommunications, industrial, consumer and office, and other markets, has historically been an excellent example of a company that has matched new product innovation with anticipated customer needs. In 2002, in the electronics manufacturing field alone, 3M designed and released new products, such as protective shipping products and a new high-performance touch computer, every month.

In order to identify key strategic opportunities, the global leader of the future must have the ability for visioning—be able to anticipate new strategies and possibilities long- and short-term.^[7] The effective leader will participate in a regular examination of organizational strengths and weaknesses and possible opportunities and roadblocks that might affect the company's goals, strategies, or position in the global marketplace. In one case, an executive at a large technology firm encouraged employees at every level to analyze how the existing strengths of the corporation matched the anticipated needs of its customers. This led to an ongoing flow of new ideas and served as excellent "preventative medicine" to help stop future problems.

A global leader's capacity to effectively anticipate future opportunities is in part dependent upon being aware of industry trends and developments as well as customer needs and wants, and they must be able to consider alternatives.^[8]

This ability to see opportunities is also very much reliant upon how clearly the global leader understands the vision and pursues the goals of the company. These leaders must have a long-term perspective and approach and not just work to satisfy Wall Street.^[9] Unfortunate examples, including Qwest and WorldCom, illustrate how the short-term desire to satisfy Wall Street can lead to long-term disaster.

Looking to the Future

Successful leaders must inspire people to focus on these future opportunities and not just on present objectives. They must be able to direct energy and mobilize resources toward initiatives that will pay off in the future.

For example, Jack Welch, the almost legendary ex-head of GE, saw the company's income double and its stock price triple in the 1990s. The transformation process was not painless—it involved cutting more than 100,000 jobs and much unnecessary work from the group's varied operations, from capital services to light bulbs. But one of the arts of good leaders is the ability to convince staff that their vision is sufficiently attractive to justify the sacrifice and to give them the confidence that their extra efforts will turn it into a reality. In that, GE succeeded triumphantly. One thing that GE did consistently well was transfer people, knowledge, and capital efficiently across organizational boundaries. Employees were able to participate in a process of letting the organization know where they had expertise and where they needed help. A simple system of "teachers" and "learners" evolved so that future opportunities were understood and acted upon quickly across the organization.

It is up to the global leader to ensure that each individual in the company understands how his or her daily activities, priorities, and decisions help move the company towards its strategic goals. Leaders must hire entrepreneurial people and empower them to focus on those priorities that will impact the future success of the organization, and they must help their teams anticipate future opportunities and challenges.

Develops Ideas to Meet the Needs of the New Environment

In order to make quality decisions and to guide the company into future success, the leader must be capable of developing ideas that will meet the needs of the customers, employees, and the company in the future. For example, several companies have effectively implemented a "balanced scorecard" approach that evaluates leaders on their ability to meet the needs of multiple stakeholders.

A measurement of the successful global leader is, [Does he or she] build and maintain business opportunities?^[10]

In the face of an uncertain future, we depend more than ever on our global leaders to guide and direct us. We put faith in our leaders that they will help us find opportunities, generate new ideas, modify obsolete approaches, and bring diverse viewpoints and perspectives together during difficult times.

The world is constantly changing. At the time that this book was being written, the world had just seen the devastation of the World Trade Centers in New York City. In that instant, on September 11, 2001, the world changed. Much of the world became involved to some extent in something new: the war on terrorism. Due to these events, the global leader has had to switch gears and do so in a manner that supports and maintains trust and calm. The way we gauge leaders' success has changed. During the aftermath of the attacks, the measure the public has used to evaluate leaders is authentic leadership. President George W. Bush; former Mayor of New York Rudolph Guiliani; the New York Police Department; and the New York Fire Department gained recognition and some measure of new respect as a result of their style of authentic empathy and passion for new forms of antiterrorist actions in the wake of their compassion for others' losses.

Conclusion

Leaders are initiators. Leaders bring people together and guide them in a common direction. First, though, leaders must know in which direction they will head. Microsoft is an example of a corporation whose leaders saw the changing direction of the new world and not only anticipated the change, but also developed products and services designed to fulfill future customer needs.

In today's radically changed world, this may perhaps be the most important chapter for the global leader of the future to read. This chapter has focused on research, anticipation, and development of future trends and opportunities—all of which are absolutely imperative if a leader is to develop new ideas to successfully meet the needs of the changing global environment.

Resource Section: Anticipating Opportunities

ITEM 59: Invests in Learning About Future Trends

WHAT TO DO

• Develop a thorough understanding of the market forces and trends that impact your organization and your competitors, and regularly communicate this information to your employees.
• Constantly research and obtain knowledge of the competition's products, costs, strategies, and philosophies.
• Frequently discuss and share information about new products, strategies, and philosophies that are being developed and implemented within your industry.
• Establish an objective, effective way of learning about your competitors and critical market forces.
• Establish a strategic planning taskforce and change the players every 9 to 12 months.
• Encourage people to raise questions and concerns about the ongoing trends in the industry.
• Recognize and reward people for learning and sharing information about future trends and competitors.

HOW TO DO IT

• Ask your customers for their evaluation of how your company measures up to the competition. Share their input with your work group.
• Ask your company for its evaluation of how it measures up to the competition using both blind studies and focus groups.
• Study competitors' marketing and promotional materials to learn more about their products or services.
• Communicate the latest development about market forces and competitors' business and product at staff meetings.
• Schedule time in staff meetings for sharing market research information.
• Ask employees to consider the changing competitive realities and think strategically.
• Volunteer to serve on a strategic planning committee or task force.
• Get associates together for market trend analysis and discussion.
• Invite people from the sales department to share information about the competitors' products, costs, and strategies.
• Encourage employees to join professional associations or attend conferences so that they can network with people in the industry and acquire up-to-date information about the market trends.
• Network with people from other geographical areas. They may be more willing to share information if they don't see you as a direct competitor.
• Discuss techniques with managers who excel in this area.

HOW TO USE THIS SKILL FURTHER

• Learn from managers and peers who are knowledgeable about the industry, environment, and competition.
• Read publications such as Business Week, Fortune, and The Wall Street Journal, and identify business trends and development; assess their implications for your company.
• Create a file of newspaper clippings, trade and business journals, annual reports, and marketing research on your customers and competitors to stay in touch with the external business world.

RESULTS YOU CAN EXPECT

• Your employees may be more motivated to improve products and services.
• The department, division, and company may obtain bigger market share, become financially stronger, and revenues may increase.

READINGS

• 10 Lessons From the Future: A Personal Seminar on Tomorrow. Wolfgang Grulke. 2000. Financial Times–Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, NJ, ISBN 273653296.
• Beyond Certainty: The Changing Worlds of Organizations. Charles Handy. 1998. Harvard Business School Press: Boston, ISBN 875847633.
• Building Leaders: How Successful Companies Develop the Next Generation. Jay Alden Conger & Beth Benjamin. 1999. Jossey-Bass: San Francisco, ISBN 787944696.
• Evolve!: Succeeding in the Digital Culture of Tomorrow. Rosabeth Moss Kanter. 2001. Harvard Business School Press: Boston, ISBN 1578514398.
• Fumbling the Future: How Xerox Invented, Then Ignored, the First Personal Computer. Douglas K. Smith & Robert C. Alexander. 1999. iUniverse.com: Silicon Valley, CA, ISBN 1583482660.
• Strategy and Leadership. MCB University Press: West Yorkshire England, New York.
• The Agenda: What Every Business Must Do to Dominate the Decade. Michael Hammer. 2001. Crown: Victoria, BC, ISBN 609609661.
• "The Financial Review: The Boss." AFR Magazine. Sydney, Australia. [email protected].
• The Future of Capitalism: How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World. Lester C. Thurow. 1997. Penguin USA: New York, ISBN 140263284.
• The Future of Leadership: Today's Top Leadership Thinkers Speak to Tomorrow's Leaders. Warren G. Bennis, Gretchen M. Spreitzer, & Thomas B.F. Cummins (Eds.). 2001. John Wiley & Sons: New York, ISBN 787955671.

ITEM 60: Effectively Anticipates Future Opportunities

WHAT TO DO

• Stay abreast of market trends and movements.
• Study professional journals regularly to learn the industry trends and anticipated future development.
• Analyze the market forces that affect your organization. This will help you anticipate any barriers to success.
• Learn from individuals who think strategically and are knowledgeable about the market movement.
• Send liaisons to conferences and compare notes and lessons taught to a larger audience.
• Listen to feedback and input from team members and customers to help you foresee opportunities.
• Develop strong analytical skills.
• Identify "critical success factors" for your organization.
• Communicate these areas of focus to employees.
• Make these critical success factors well known to employees through staff meetings, newsletters, bulletin boards, and so on.

HOW TO DO IT

• Make a list of strategic factors in order of degree of criticality to financial or nonfinancial return.
• Get employees to think strategically when developing business plans; interrelate the effects of new plans and ideas on those core success factors.
• Involve your employees in identifying the strategic factors for your organization.
• Work with your employees to create an action plan based on these factors to bring them to life.
• Hold meetings that explain and focus solely on these particular strategic factors for future success.
• Create a business plan that concentrates on promoting these areas further.
• Attend meetings in which the company's past performance and future goals and action strategies are presented and discussed.
• Read publications such as Business Week, Fortune, and The Wall Street Journal, and identify business trends and developments; assess their implications for your company.
• Create a file of newspaper clippings, trade and business journals, annual reports, and marketing research on your customers and competitors to stay in touch with the external business world.

RESULTS YOU CAN EXPECT

• The department, division, and company may become financially stronger, and revenues may increase.
• People may seek your input and opinions about the future direction of the company.

READINGS

• 10 Lessons From the Future: A Personal Seminar on Tomorrow. Wolfgang Grulke. 2000. Financial Times–Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, NJ, ISBN 273653296.
• Built to Last. James C. Collins & Jerry I. Porras. 1997. HarperBusiness: New York, ISBN 887307396.
• Business 2010: Positioning Your Company and Yourself in a Rapidly Changing World. Frederick G. Harmon. 2001. Kiplinger Books: Washington, DC, ISBN 938721844.
• Business Climate Shifts: Profiles of Change Makers. W. Warner Burke, Richard Koonce, & William Trahant. 1999. Butterworth-Heinemann: Woburn, MA, ISBN 750671866.
• Competing for the Future. Gary Hamel & C. K. Prahalad. 1996. Harvard Business School Press: Boston, ISBN 875847161.
• Focus: The Future of Your Company Depends on It. Al Ries. 1997. HarperBusiness. New York, ISBN 887308635.
• Free Market Fusion. Glenn R. Jones. 1999. Cyber Publishing Group: Englewood, NJ, ISBN 1885400683.
• The Attention Economy: Understanding the New Currency of Business. Thomas H. Davenport & John C. Beck. 2001. Harvard Business School Press: Boston, ISBN 157851441X.

ITEM 61: Inspires People to Focus on Future Opportunities (Not Just Present Objectives)

WHAT TO DO

• Recognize that innovation and change are vital to the success of your business.
• See change as an opportunity, not a problem.
• Stay abreast of market trends and movements.
• Encourage and support others to seek new opportunities to benefit the organization.
• Frequently communicate with your team to update them on new developments on strategies and directions.
• Make sure that team members have a clear understanding of the big picture.
• Review and discuss all risks (the probability of failure and the consequences of failure) before agreeing on a decision or acting on a new idea.
• Work with employees to develop action plans and set deadlines to capture future business opportunities.
• Value those who can think outside the box. Maintain an atmosphere in which these people feel safe to innovate, and provide all the support they need.

HOW TO DO IT

• Use benchmark data from associations in which you have access to it.
• Hold regular meetings with your managers, peers, and employees to share information and data, and identify potential business opportunities.
• Work with your employees to evaluate the business opportunity, analyze pros and cons, and get input from others who have expertise in that area.
• Follow up regularly to ensure the opportunities are being worked on as planned.
• Make sure that you and your employees have a clear understanding of your customers' needs and requirements. Provide a communication link between them.
• Maintain objectivity when reviewing new ideas and business situations.
• Supply the resources and information others need to focus on future opportunities.
• Determine the "area of freedom" for new ideas, where ideas can be tried out without violating any contractual, safety, or other nonnegotiable requirement.
• Identify a successful company in your industry and think about how it stays ahead of the game. Work with others to identify the success factors of such organizations, and make appropriate changes in your own organization.
• Model the behavior of making sound decisions, taking appropriate risks, and acting on ideas without delay.
• Keep a file entitled "New Ideas." Each time you hear or see something related to your job, write it down and file it. Periodically review the file.
• Keep some of your budget available for the implementation of new ideas or innovations.
• Keep your employees sharp by having them attend workshops, seminars, and other gatherings to network and exchange ideas. Encourage their involvement with customers, various committees, and brainstorming sessions.

HOW TO USE THIS SKILL FURTHER

• Get employees to think strategically when discussing business plans; interrelate the effects of new plans and ideas on those core success factors.
• Discuss techniques with managers who excel at helping employees see future opportunities.

RESULTS YOU CAN EXPECT

• The department, division, and company may become financially stronger, and revenues will increase.
• Your employees may be more motivated to improve products and services.
• Your team may become a role model for the company.

READINGS

• Coaching for Action: A Report on Long-Term Advising in a Program Context. Victoria A. Guthrie. 1999. Center for Creative Leadership: Greensboro, NC, ISBN 188219750X.
• Coaching for Leadership: How the World's Greatest Coaches Help Leaders Learn. Marshall Goldsmith, Laurence Lyons, & Alyssa Freas. 2000. Jossey-Bass: New York, ISBN 787955175.
• Innovation: Breakthrough Thinking at 3M, DuPont, GE, Pfizer, and Rubbermaid. Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Fred Wiersema, John J. Kao, & Tom Peters. 1997. HarperBusiness: New York, ISBN 088730771X.
• Personal Coaching for Results: How to Mentor and Inspire Others to Amazing Growth. Louis E. Tice & Joyce Quick. 1997. Thomas Nelson: New York, ISBN 785273557.
• Pioneering Organizations: The Convergence of Individualism, Teamwork, and Leadership. Larry N. Davis & Chip R. Bell. 2000. Executive Excellence: Provo, UT, ISBN 1890009849.

ITEM 62: Develops Ideas to Meet the Needs of the New Environment

WHAT TO DO

• Recognize that innovation and change are vital to the success of your organization.
• Stay abreast of market trends and movements.
• Prepare detailed plans with resources required for change.
• Recognize that innovation and change are vital to continuous improvement efforts.
• Provide others with sufficient information to permit them to develop creative yet workable ideas.
• View past practices as a place to start rather than as the "way we always do it."
• Encourage and support others to seek new opportunities to benefit the organization.
• Review and discuss all risks (the probability of failure and the consequences of failure) before agreeing on a decision or acting on a new idea.
• Make sure the impact of new approaches on other operations and other work units is fully explored and resolved before a new idea is implemented.
• Develop action plans and set deadlines to implement new ideas.
• Value those who can think outside the box. Maintain an atmosphere where these people feel safe to innovate, and provide all the support they need.

HOW TO DO IT

• Use benchmark data from associations in which you have access to it.
• Hold regular meetings with others (managers, peers, workers) to share information and data, and identify possible areas for improvement.
• Make sure that others have a clear understanding of their customers' needs and requirements. Provide a communication link between them.
• Maintain objectivity when reviewing new ideas and decisions.
• Supply the resources and information others need to develop ideas.
• Determine the "area of freedom" for new ideas, where ideas can be tried out without violating any contractual, safety, or other nonnegotiable requirement.
• Work with your group to develop specific action plans, assign responsibilities with in the team, and set a realistic timeline to complete the task.
• Follow up regularly to ensure the ideas are implemented as planned.
• Identify an innovative company and think about the differences between its management's involvement and yours. Talk to managers and employees to identify all the differences you can. Work with others to identify and make appropriate changes in your own organization.
• Model the behavior of making sound decisions, taking appropriate risks, and act on ideas without delay.
• Keep a file entitled "New Ideas." Each time you hear or see something related to your job, write it down and file it. Periodically review the file.
• Keep some part of your budget available for new ideas or innovations.
• Keep your innovators sharp by having them attend workshops, seminars, and other gatherings to network and exchange ideas. Encourage their involvement with customers, various committees, and brainstorming sessions.

HOW TO USE THIS SKILL FURTHER

• Try out some of your own creative ideas on problems you have been trying to solve.
• Help someone else act on a new opportunity or approach they want to try out.

RESULTS YOU CAN EXPECT

• You may gain a reputation for being a "change agent."
• Your group may make more mistakes than before, but may experience more successes.
• Customer expectations will continue to be met using new and better ways of working.

READINGS

• Competing for the Future. Gary Hamel & C. K. Prahalad. 1996. Harvard Business School Press: Boston, ISBN 875847161.
• Corning and the Craft of Innovation. Margaret B.W. Graham & Alec T. Shuldiner. 2001. Oxford University Press: Oxford, England, ISBN 195140974.
• Innovation: Breakthrough Thinking at 3M, DuPont, GE, Pfizer, and Rubbermaid. Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Fred Wiersema, John J. Kao, & Tom Peters. 1997. HarperBusiness: New York, ISBN 088730771X.
• Intrapreneuring in Action: A Handbook for Business Innovation. Gifford Pinchot & Ron Pellman. 1999. Berrett-Koehler: San Francisco, ISBN 1576750612.
• Jumping the Curve: Innovation and Strategic Choice in an Age of Transition. Nicholas Imparato & Oren Harari. 1996. Jossey-Bass: San Francisco, ISBN 787901830.
• The Intelligent Organization: Engaging the Talent & Initiative of Everyone in the Workplace. Gifford Pinchot & Elizabeth Pinchot. 1996. Berrett-Koehler: San Francisco, ISBN 1881052982.

Endnotes

1. James M. Kouzes & Barry Posner. The Leadership Challenge, p. 36.

2. James M. Kouzes & Barry Posner. The Leadership Challenge, p. 100.

3. Technology, Poland, 39.

4. Fred Harmon. Business 2010. The Kiplinger Washington Editors: Washington, DC. 2001. p. 5–7.

5. Healthcare, France, 44.

6. Research and development, United States, 46.

7. Technology, Spain, 39.

8. Financial Services, Germany, 42.

9. Products and services, United States, 27.

10. Products and services, United States, 44.

11. Information and quotes from interview with Rebecca Matthias conducted by Cathy Greenberg, November 2001. Also, see Mothers Work: How a Young Mother Started a Business on a Shoestring and Built It Into a Million-dollar Company. Rebecca Matthias. Doubleday: New York, 1999.