Appendix A
Research Methodology for the Global Leader of the Future Project
Cathy Greenberg, Alastair Robertson, Maya Hu-Chan, and Marshall Goldsmith have made an ongoing commitment to building knowledge around the future of executive leadership with a global scope. As part of this commitment, a multiple-method research plan was created that would span two years of knowledge acquisition. The plan used a four-stage process for knowledge development: assess data, generate knowledge, embed knowledge, and transfer knowledge. An overview of each phase is given below.
Phases of Knowledge Development
Phase One: Assess
The first phase of knowledge development about global leadership involved assessing the current state of knowledge. This roughly one-year process began in 1997. The initial research involved bringing together recognized thought leaders and futurists in the realm of global leadership (see Table A-1). This process created a working definition of the desired knowledge and conceptual terms. An initial database and bibliography were created. A wide "net" for secondary research was cast to build upon the knowledge gathered from the initial research. A variety of business and academic sources created a rich set of books, articles, theories, practical stories, and other data that was used in expanding the knowledge base.
Table A.1. Phase 1 Thought Leaders and Futurists
- Warren Bennis, University of Southern California—The Leadership Institute
- Jim Bolt, Executive Development Associates
- Jay Conger, University of Southern California—The Leadership Institute
- Ted Forbes, Darden School, University of Virginia
- Marshall Goldsmith, Alliance for Strategic Leadership
- Frances Hesselbein, Drucker Foundation
- Lynn Isabella, Darden School, University of Virginia
- Jennifer James, Futurist
- Bob Johansen, Institute for the Future
- Henry Kissinger, Former Secretary of State
- John Kotter, Harvard Business School
- Carl Larson, University of Denver
- Quinn Mills, Harvard Business School
- John O'Neil, Center for Leadership Renewal
- Lester Thurow, Massachusetts Institute for Technology
- Watts Wacker, First Matter
- George West, Consultants for Management Development
- Abe Zaleznik, Harvard Business School
During this phase, an initial set of data about global leadership was created and a white paper—"CEO of the Future"—was written. Additionally, alliance partnerships were created between CEOs and academics in one-on-one focus sessions with either Warren Bennis, Marshall Goldsmith, or John O'Neil to guide the remaining phases of knowledge acquisition and dissemination.
Phase Two: Generate
The second phase of the project began in 1998. It drew upon the concepts identified in the first phase to generate ideas and hypotheses around global leadership. These ideas and hypotheses were then refined and validated with the alliance partners. A questionnaire to measure the criticality of various dimensions of global leadership for the past, present, and future was then designed and pilot tested for reliability and validity. Provocative thoughts and findings were identified, and the Evolving Role of Executive Leadership Report was created to capture the results of Phases One and Two. This phase completed the research portion of the knowledge generation process.
Phase Three: Embed
The third phase began in 1999. Knowledge generated and synthesized from the prior two phases supported a new level of investigation. Cathy Greenberg, Alastair Robertson, and Marshall Goldsmith identified value propositions and the steps needed for further development. The research team was able to engage future leaders in dialogue about what value they could generate to support their roles in a changing leadership environment. Here is where official support for the research ended and the investigators pushed on independently to grow the research further across projects, academia, and alliances with other research groups and thought leaders to embed their findings into the greater wealth of published information on leadership worldwide. Such publications included Leading Beyond the Walls (1999), Coaching for Leadership (2000), and The Leader of the Future (2001).
Phase Four: Transfer
The fourth and final phase of the project began in 1999 and is ongoing. This phase transfers knowledge from the research and development phases into practical applications. The groups responsible for Phase Three continue to have responsibility for this phase. Cathy Greenberg and Alastair Robertson engaged in the development of approaches, frameworks, methodologies, resources, market planning, and Master Class development to effectively transfer knowledge. This resulted in knowledge creation and transfer through articles, books, and conferences. Recently, a new phase of the research focused on the application of these findings in e-leadership and what it takes to be an e-manager in the world of e-commerce.
Research Plan and Methods
A multiple-method research plan was created to consolidate existing knowledge on global leadership and then to expand upon that knowledge. The initial thought leader and futurist panels were identified on recommendations from partners and the Fortune Global 100. Organizations that participated in subsequent research were chosen from lists of identified global organizations, partner suggestions, and external alliance partner recommendations. The selected organizations represented a wide range of global industries, sizes, geographies, and lifecycle development phases. (See Table A-2 for a list of participating organizations.)
Four major research methods were used as described below.
1. Thought Leader Panels
External thought leaders in the areas of global leadership and futurism were identified. Their published research was reviewed, and they were then invited to participate in a series of thought leader panels. These panels produced new and provocative insights on the concept of global leadership. This rich, deep data provided insights for the development of the initial hypotheses that guided the subsequent research efforts.
Table A.2. Participating Organizations
Acer (Taiwan)
African Development Foundation (USA)
Alcoa (Switzerland, USA)
Allianz (Germany)
AMD (USA)
American Friends Service Committee (USA)
Ameritech (USA)
Aracruz Cellulose (Brazil)
Avon (Japan)
Banque Agricole W.I. Carr Indosuez (Taiwan)
BASF/Knoll Pharmaceutical (USA)
Bechtel (Brazil, Chile)
Bekaert (Belgium)
Bellsouth (USA)
Boise Cascade (USA)
Bombardier Aerospace (Canada)
Canadian Federal Government (Canada)
Citibank (Taiwan)
Cox Communications (USA)
Crimson Asia (Taiwan)
Center for International Dialogue (USA)
Cockerill CMI (Belgium)
Diners Club (Brazil, USA)
DHL (South Africa, USA)
Eastman Kodak (India, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand)
Effem Mexico (Mexico)
Ericsson (Spain)
Ericsson Radio Systems (Sweden)
Friends Committee National Legislation (USA)
Fluor (USA)
Ford Motor (USA)
GTE (China, USA)
Honeywell (USA)
International SEMATECH (USA)
IBM (Japan, UK)
John Hancock (USA)
Johnson & Johnson (Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan)
MediaOne Group (Japan, USA)
Merck Sharp Dhome (Brazil)
National Instruments (USA)
Oracle (China, USA)
Primax (Taiwan)
Raytheon (Canada)
ResMed (Australia)
Samsung Global Strategist Group (South Korea)
Samsung Semiconductor (USA)
Sandia National Laboratories (USA)
San Ildefonso Pueblo Nation (USA)
SBC Communications (Switzerland, USA)
Smithkline Beecham (USA)
Society for Intercultural Education, Training and Research (The Netherlands)
Solution Bank (Japan)
Square D (USA)
Sun Microsystems (USA)
Texaco (USA)
UM Engineering (Belgium)
United Nations High Commission for Refugees (Switzerland)
US Peace Corps (USA)
US West (USA)
Valvoline (USA)
Warner Lambert (France, UK, USA)
Wayne-Dresser (USA)
Weyerhaeuser (Hong Kong, USA)
2. Focus/Dialogue Groups
Four types of focus groups were designed and implemented to build upon the emerging knowledge. The first focus groups were the four CEO of the Future Dinner Series. Dinners were held in New York, San Francisco, London, Melbourne, and Sydney with a total of 28 CEOs participating. The dinner dialogues were led by the team's co-sponsors, managing partner Cathy Greenberg, partner Alastair Robertson, and the three alliance partners: Warren Bennis, Marshall Goldsmith, and John O'Neil.
The second type of focus group was the Global Leader of the Future Network Forum. With assistance from alliance partners, current and future global leaders from many global firms were identified. They were invited to participate in a daylong focus group/dialogue forum preceded by a dinner the evening before. These forums were designed to elicit additional insights and to validate initial hypotheses about global leadership. The forums were held in Barcelona; Melbourne; Sydney; New York; San Francisco; Prague, Czech Republic; and Budapest, Hungary (emerging markets) where a total of 75 participants attended. (See Figure A-1.) Forum participants subsequently completed the Global Leader of the Future Survey Questionnaire. (To review the survey, please see Appendix C.)
Figure A.1. Locations of research events.
A third type of focus group followed the same general format as the Global Leader of the Future Network Forum. These forums differed in that they were held in conjunction with other conferences, including the World Economic Forum, the Pacific Coast Gas Association Roundtable, the Health Care Industry Conference, Linkage, the Group of 200, and the International Utilities Executives Annual Conference. These groups were led by Cathy Greenberg, Accenture managing partner for the Leadership Theme Team, Institute for Strategic Change. Either the Global Leader of the Future Questionnaire was distributed to these focus group participants or findings were discussed and hypotheses tested.
The fourth type of focus group, a short version of the Global Leader of the Future Network Forum, was utilized for the internal Accenture community and led by Cathy Greenberg. A special Analyst and Consultant Mini Forum was held with 12 participants. Similar forums were also held at three Women's Mentoring Programs with approximately 120 men and women. These participants also received the Global Leader of the Future Survey Questionnaire.
3. Interviews
This part of the research phase, which was conducted by Maya Hu-Chan and Jeremy Solomons, began in August 1998 when senior HRD officers at over 200 global organizations were personally asked to participate in the research. A standard set of in terview questions and a template for recording data were developed (see Appendix B).
Participants came from six distinct geographic regions—Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, North America, and South America—and resided in five of these regions. Seventy-four percent of the participants were male, 26 percent were female.
By extrapolating valid data, over three-fifths of the 202 high-potential leaders who participated in these interviews, were under age 40, and over a third of those were in their 20s.
The participants worked at over 60 for-profit, governmental, multilateral, and nonprofit organizations around the world. The most frequently represented industries were telecommunications and media, pharmaceuticals, and high-tech.
Once approval was given, the participants were invited to nominate three (to five) high-potential leaders, who would have ideally been in their 20s, 30s, and 40s respectively. Each nominee was then contacted individually about participating in a structured telephone interview for 20 to 40 minutes and filling out an anonymous 82-question survey.
A good way to begin thinking about the future is by reflecting on the past and present, learning from mistakes, and collecting best practices. With this in mind, research participants were asked to think about real-life examples of effective global leadership from their own perspective and experience.
Some interviewees started by naming people whom they deemed to be effective global leaders. In joint first place were Bill Gates of Microsoft and Mahatma Gandhi of India. Close behind were Winston Churchill of the United Kingdom and Ronald Reagan of the United States.
Some leaders, such as the Pope and Kofi Annan of the United Nations, were mentioned largely because of the global mandates of their jobs. Others, such as Gates and Churchill, were cited because of the global impact of their work. A third group, topped by Gandhi and Nelson Mandela of South Africa, were named because of the way they led/lead by example through their innate and learned qualities.
Other interviewees began by citing both positive and negative examples of such key elements of effective global leadership as collaborative leadership and managing thought and style differences.
The negative examples were particularly enlightening. They included giving up too soon; hidden, personal agendas; ignoring cultural differences; not taking time to think things through and do things properly; not having clear objectives; and not understanding people.
What emerged was a surprisingly unified list of the key skills and characteristics that effective global leaders—whether high-profile politicians or unsung country managers—have displayed up until now. It is from this list that the final Global Leader of the Future Inventory with its 15 characteristics and 72 items was developed.
Quantitative Survey Questionnaire
A questionnaire was developed with leadership from Marshall Goldsmith in combination with Cathy Greenberg and Alastair Robertson to measure perceptions of the criticality and importance of 14 global leadership dimensions for the past, present, and future. Additionally, Cathy Greenberg and John O'Neil combined efforts to interview executives and government officials, including individuals from top companies in Australia and New Zealand, at the World Economic Forum Davos Connection over a two-year period. These participants also received the Global Leader of the Future Survey questionnaire. The 14 dimensions were:
- Demonstrating Integrity
- Encouraging Constructive Dialogue
- Creating a Shared Vision
- Developing People
- Building Partnerships
- Sharing Leadership
- Empowering People
- Thinking Globally
- Appreciating Diversity
- Developing Technological Savvy
- Ensuring Customer Satisfaction
- Maintaining a Competitive Advantage
- Achieving Personal Mastery
- Anticipating Opportunities
Eighty-two items were developed to measure the 14 dimensions. (To review the survey, see Appendix C.) It is from this questionnaire that the Global Leader of the Future Inventory, with its added 15th dimension of "Leading Change" and its 72 items was developed.
This questionnaire was piloted and validated by Marshall Goldsmith before application with the various focus group participants. After it was determined that the questionnaire met the standards for quantitative research, it was distributed to more than 200 participants in the aforementioned forums and focus groups. Seventy-three usable questionnaires representing five global regions (Australia, Pacific Rim, North America, Europe, and Emerging Markets) were returned. The respondents encompassed a variety of industries and managerial levels. (Please see Appendix D for a more detailed description of the statistical analysis for the quantitative questionnaire.)
Profile of the Global Leader of the Future
The questions currently on the minds of all CEOs and executives are the following:
- What will effective leaders be like in the future?
- What competencies must a leader have to be successful in the changing global marketplace of the future? and
- What is the profile of the Global Leader of the Future?
While it is difficult to provide a complete answer to these questions, analysis of the research data suggests some initial conclusions. Results from the quantitative analysis of the Global Leader of the Future survey questionnaire data were validated by the qualitative data collected from thought leader panels, focus groups, interviews, and observations. Findings show profiles and trends for the global leader of the past, present, and future. These profiles and trends were relatively consistent across global regions.
This section examines the Global Leader profiles, identifies differences for the three time periods, and presents implications for leadership development.
Global Leader of the Future Profile Trends
While distinct profiles emerged for each of the time periods, it is the differences between the profiles that are most interesting. Results show a clear trend for all 14 dimensions of global leadership to increase significantly in importance over time. Participants were able to identify certain competencies as being more important than others for past and present leaders. However, they responded that all of the leadership dimensions are highly critical to the success of future leaders.
Figure A-2 provides the profile of the global leader for the past, present, and future time periods. The level of importance for each dimension by time period is displayed; the higher the importance rating, the more critical the dimension.
Figure A.2. Global Leadership profiles by time period.
Each of the 14 dimensions is shown to be increasing in importance with time. The fourteen leadership dimensions are all seen as extremely important for the Global Leader of the Future. The questionnaire responses indicate that future leaders must excel at all 14 dimensions to be successful in the future global marketplace—at the very least, they must be able to draw upon the collective expertise for all 14 dimensions. This is in agreement with the information from the interviews and focus groups—those participants indicated that either "a Super Leader, who excels in all dimensions or a leadership team that can gather expertise from multiple leaders" will lead the future global organization. Most participants believe that the challenges facing future leaders will be too great for any one individual.
Differences by Time Period
All leadership dimensions will be critical for future leaders. However, by examining the differences in ratings across both time periods (future vs. past, future vs. present), large differences were found for the following dimensions:
- Thinks Globally
- Develops and Empowers People
- Appreciates Cultural Diversity
- Builds Teamwork and Partnerships
Given the higher future and lower past importance for these dimensions, current and future leaders may need to focus significant development efforts on them.
For the future, large differences between the future and past time periods were also found for:
- Embraces Change
- Shows Technological Savvy
- Encourages Constructive Challenge
- Ensures Customer Satisfaction
- Shares Leadership
The average ratings for each dimension and the largest differences between the future and past profiles, and between the future and present profiles, are indicated in Table A-3.
Item Analysis by Time
When the 82 specific items that make up the 14 leadership dimensions were analyzed, some commonalities across time periods emerged. The top items (determined by highest mean rating) were identified and compared across time period to identify any significant trends.
Certain items were critical for past, present, and future time periods:
- Creates and communicates a clear organization vision
- Clearly identifies priorities; focuses on a vital few
Several items were common for both present and future:
- Views business from the ultimate customer perspective
- Unites organization into an effective team
- Genuinely listens to others
Items unique to the future top list included the following:
- Builds effective alliances with other organizations
- Makes decisions that reflect global considerations
- Builds effective partnerships across the company
- Consistently treats people with respect and dignity
These results are validated by the qualitative research and are represented by the increased importance of certain dimensions for the global leader of the future: Thinks Globally, Appreciates Cultural Diversity, and Encourages Constructive Challenge.
The top items for each time period are displayed in Table A-3.
Table A.3. Top 10 Items by Time Period (1–Important, 10–Extremely Important)
