image

The theoretical (expected) frequencies are

NP(0)=(120)(0.22313)=27,NP(1)=(120)(0.334695)=40,NP(2)=(120)(0.25)=30,NP(3)=(120)(0.13)=16,NP(4)=(120)(0.05)=6,NP(5)=(120)(0.01)=1

image

i.e., 27, 40, 30, 16, 6, and 1.

Example 4.73: If X and Y are two independent random Poisson random variables such that Var[X]+Var[Y]=3. Find P(X+Y<2)?

Solution: Let X and Y follow Poisson distribution.

Let λ1 be the mean of X and λ2 be the mean of Y.

Then by additive property X+Y follows Poisson distribution with mean λ1+λ2.

We have Var[X]+Var[Y]=λ1+λ2=3(given)

λ=λ1+λ2=3 (say)

Now

P(X+Y<2)=P(X+Y=0)+P(X+Y=1)=eλ+eλλ1!=e3+e30.3=e3(1+3)=4e3=0.199

image

Example 4.74: In a company, a board receives 15 calls per minute. If the board is capable of handling at the most 25 calls per minute, what is the probability that the board will saturate in 1 minute?

Solution: Number of calls received=15/minute.

λ=15

The board reaches the saturation point if the number of calls exceeds 25.

Hencetheprobabilityofsaturation=1x=025e15(15)xx!=1[e15+e15151!++e15(15)2525!]=10.994=0.006

image

Example 4.75: If V=Hourly volume=37, t=length of interval=30 seconds, then compute Fx for x>2.

Solution: We have

λ=Vt3600=37×303600=0.308

image

Therefore eλ=e0.308=0.735,n=3600t=360030=120image

F0=nλ0eλ0!=120.e0.308=120×0.735=88.2F1=nλ1eλ1!=λ1F0=0.308×88.2=27.2F2=nλ2eλ2!=λ2F1=0.308×27.22=4.2

image

Hence Fx>2=n−(F0+F1+F2)=120−(88.2+27.2+4.2)=0.4

Example 4.76: (One of the first published example of Poisson distribution as applied to traffic data by Adams). The rate of arrivals, i.e., the number of vehicles arriving per 10 second interval is given below. Obtain the theoretical frequencies, and hourly volume from the data.

No. of vehicles per 10 second period0123>3
Observed frequency94632120

Image

Solution:

No. of vehicles per 10 second period (x)Observed frequency (f)Total of vehicles (xf)Probability P(x)Theoretical frequency
09400.53997.0
163630.33359.9
221420.10318.5
3260.0213.8
>3000.0040.8
 1801111.000180

Image

We have

λ=TotalofvehiclesΣf=111180=0.617eλ=e0.617=0.539

image

Applying the formula P(x)=λxexx!image we get

P(0)=0.539, P(1)=0.333, P(2)=0.103, P(3)=0.021, P(>3)=0.004

The theoretical frequencies are N P(0)=97, N P(1)=59.9, N P(2)=18.5, N P(3)=3.8, N P(X>3)=0.8

where N=180.

The hourly volume=2×no. of vehicles in 180 ten second period=2×111=222.

Exercise 4.8

1. If a random variable X follows Poisson distribution such that P(X=1)=P(X=2). Find (1) Mean, (2) P(X=0)?

Ans: P(X=0)=0.1353

2. A hospital receives patients at the rate of 3 patients/minute on an average. What is the probability of receiving no patient in 1 minute interval?

Ans: 0.04979

3. Suppose a book of 285 pages contains typographical errors. If these errors are randomly distributed throughout the book, what is the probability that 10 pages, selected at random will be free from errors (e−0.735=0.4975).

Ans: 0.4795

4. In a Poisson distribution if 3P(X=2)=P(X=4). Find P(X=3)?

Ans: 36e−6

5. Between the hours 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. the average number of phone calls per minute coming into the switch board of a company is 2.35. Find the probability that during one particular minute there will be at most two phone calls?

Ans: 0.58285

6. Out of 1000 balls, 50 are red and the rest are white. If 60 balls are picked at random, what is the probability of picking up (a) 3 red balls, (b) not more than 3 red balls in the sample? Assume Poisson distribution for the number of red balls picked up in the sample where e−3=0.0498.

Ans: (a) 0.2241; (b) 0.6474

7. A manufacturer, who produces medicine bottles, finds that 0.1% of the bottles are defective. The bottles are packed in boxes containing 500 boxes from how many boxes will contain (1) no defectives (2) at least 2 defectives (given e−0.5=0.60650).

Ans: (a) 61; (b) 9

8. The probability that a man aged 50 years will die within a year is 0.01125. What is the probability that out of 12 such men at least 11 will reach their 51st birthday (e−0.135=0.87371)?

Ans: 0.9917

9. A pair of dice is thrown 6 times. If getting a total of 7 is considered to be a success, what is the probability of at least 4 successes?

Ans: 40646650image

10. There are 20% chances for a worker of an industry to suffer from an occupational disease. Fifty workers were selected at random and examined for the occupational disease. Find the probability that (a) only one worker is found suffering from the disease, (b) more than 3 are suffering from the disease, (c) None is suffering from the disease?

Ans: (a) 10(45)49image; (b) 1(447550)(25364)image; (c) (45)50image

11. If a random variable X follows a Poisson distribution such that P(X=2)=9 P(X=4)+90 P(X=6). Find the mean and variance of X?

Ans: Mean=21, Variance=1

12. A random variable has a Poisson distribution such that P(1)=P(2). Find the (a) Mean of the distribution, (b) P(4), (c) P(X≥1), (d) P(1<X<4)?

Ans: (a) 1.2; (b) 0.0902; (c) 0.8647; (d) 0.4511

13. Fit a Poisson distribution for the following data and calculate the expected frequencies.

x01234
f(x)109652231

Image

Ans: 108, 67, 66, 20, 4, 11, 1

14. A distributor of bean seeds determines from extensive tests that 5% of large batch of seeds will not germinate. He sells the seeds in packets of 200 and generates 90% germination. Determine the probability that a particular packet will violate the guarantee.

Ans: 0.0016

15. The number of accidents in a year to the taxi drivers in a city follows a Poisson distribution with mean 3. Out of 1000 taxi drivers, find approximately the number of drivers with (a) no accidents in a year, (b) more than 3 accidents in a year.

Ans: (a) 50; (b) 350

16. If the mean of a Poisson distribution is 4, find (a) SD, (b) β1, (c) β2, (d) μ3, (e) μ4.

Ans: (a) 2; (b) 0.25; (c) 3.25; (d) 4; (e) 52

17. One-hundred car radios are inspected as they come off the production line and the number of defects per set is recorded below:

No. of defects01234
No. of sets7918210

Image


Find the Poisson distribution to the above data and calculate the expected frequencies of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 defects?

Ans: 78, 20, 2, 0, 0

18. A book contains 100 misprints distributed randomly throughout its 100 pages. What is the probability that a page observed at random contains at least two misprints? Assume Poisson distribution.

Ans: 0.264

19. If X and Y are independent Poisson random variables with means 2 and 4, respectively, find (a) P[X+Y2<1]image, (b) P[3(X+Y)≥9]?

Ans: (a) 0.017352; (b) 0.93803

20. For a Poisson distribution P(X=1)=0.03 and P(X=2)=0.2, find (a) P(X=0) and (b) P(X=3)?

Ans: (a) 0.00225; (b) 0.888899

21. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data which gives the number of yeast cells per square for 400 squares.

No. of cells per square012345678910
No. of squares10314398428420000

Image

Ans: 107, 14, 93, 41, 14, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0

22. The number of items collected at a center is Poisson distribution, where the probability of no items collected is 0.4. Find the probability that 3 or less items are collected?

Ans: 0.9856

23. A shopkeeper receives 5 bad currencies every day. What are the probabilities that he will receive (a) 3 bad currencies on a particular day, (b) 8 bad currencies for 2 consecutive days?

Ans: 0.1113

24. The following table compares the predicted frequencies with frequencies observed in a field study:

No. of vehicles arriving per interval0123
Observed frequency882750

Image


Calculate the predicted frequencies.

Ans: 88.2, 27.2, 4.2, 0.4

25. Fit Poisson distribution by calculating predicted (theoretical) frequencies from the table given below:

No. of vehicles per 10 second period012>2
Observed frequency882750

Image

Ans: 88.2, 27.2, 4.2, 0.4

26. Suppose that the chance of an individual coal miner is killed in a mining accident during a year is 1/1400. Use the Poisson distribution to calculate the probability that in the mine employing 350 minors, there will be at least one fatal accident.

Ans: 0.22

27. A car hire firm has two cars, which it hires day by day. The number of demands for a car on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution with mean 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days on which no car is used and proportion of days on which some demand is refused.

Ans: 0.1913

28. Between the hours 2 p.m. and 4 p.m., the average number of phone calls per minute coming into the switch board is 2.35. Find the probability that during one particular unit there will be at most 2 phone calls?

Ans: 0.582854

29. The quality control manager of a tyre company has a sample of 100 tyres and has found the lifetime to be 30.214 km. The population SD is 860. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean life time for this particular brand of tyres.

Ans: (30045. 44, 303 82 .56)

30. In a random selection of 64 of 600 road crossings in a town, the mean number of automobile accidents per year was found to be 4.2 and the sample SD was 0.8. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean number of automobile accidents per crossing per year.

Ans: 4.023, 4.377

31. On a certain day 74 trains were arriving on time at Delhi station during the rush hours and 83 were late. At New Delhi there were 65 on time and 107 were late. Is there any difference in the proportions arriving on time at the two stations?

Ans: Null hypothesis (H0): There is no difference of trains arriving “on time” at two stations is accepted.

32. The number of accidents in a year attributed to the state transport bus driver follows Poisson distribution with mean 3. Out of 1000 bus drivers, how many drivers had more than 1 accident in a year?

Ans: 801

33. For 10,000 insured cars of an insurance company, the average number of claims per year is said to be 2000. Using Poisson distribution, find the probability that there is 1 claim in a particular year?

Ans: 0.1638

34. A train runs 25 km at a speed of 30 km/h, another 50 km at a speed of 40 km/h, then due to repairs of the track it travels for 6 minutes at a speed of 10 km/h and finally covers the remaining distance of 24 km at a speed of 24 km/h. What is the average speed in kilometers per hour?

Ans: 31.41 km/h

4.22 Discrete Uniform Distribution

If a random variable X can take on k different values with equal probability, we say that X has a discrete uniform distribution, which is defined as follows:

Definition 4.28

Let X be a discrete random variable taking the values 1, 2, 3, …., n.

X is said to follow a uniform distribution if its pmf is given by

P(X=x)=1k,x=1,2,3,k=0,otherwise

image

k is called the parameter of the distribution. Discrete uniform distribution is applied whenever all the values of the random variable X are equally likely. The mean of the discrete uniform distribution is k+12image and the variance is k2112image. Coefficient of skewness of the uniform distribution is zero. Hence uniform distribution is symmetric.

Example 4.77: Let X denote the number on the face of a n unbiased die, when it is rolled.

We have

P(X=x)=16,x=1,2,3,6=0,otherwise

image

Clearly X follows uniform distribution.

4.23 The Negative Binomial and Geometric Distribution

Consider an experiment consisting of repeated Bernoulli (independent) trials. The number of the trial on which kth success occurs is a random variable having a negative binomial distribution which defined as follows:

Definition 4.29

A random variable X has a negative binomial distribution if and only if

P(X=x)=Ck1x1pkqxk,forx=k,k+1,k+2,

image

where p is the probability of successes, q in the probability of failure given by q=1−p.

In this case the random variable X is called the negative binomial random variable.

Negative binomial distribution is also called as Pascal or waiting time distribution.

The mean of negative binomial distribution is kq/pimage and the variance of negative binomial distributions k(1p)/p2image.

The mgf of a negative binomial distribution is pk(1qet)kimage for a negative binomial distribution Var [X]>E(X). If k=1, the distribution is called geometrical distribution.

4.24 Geometric Distribution

Definition 4.30

A random variable X is said to follow geometric distribution, if it assumes only nonnegative vales and its pmf is

P(X=x)=pqx1,x=1,2,3,whereq=1p

image

The mean of geometric distribution is 1/pimage and the variance is 2q/p2image.

The mgf of geometric distribution is pet/(1(1p)et)image.

Example 4.78: A typist types 3 letters erroneously for every 100 letters. What is the probability that 10th letter typed is the first erroneous letter?

Solution: We have

P=3100=0.03q=1p=0.97x=10P(X=x)=pqx1=(0.03)(0.97)101=(0.03)(0.97)9

image

Exercise 4.9

1. If the probability is 0.75 that an applicant for a driver’s license will pass the road test an any given try, what is the probability that an applicant will finally pass the test on fifth try?

Ans: (0.75)(0.25)4

2. A typist types 2 letters erroneously for every 100 letters, what is the probability that the truth letter typed is the first erroneously letter?

Ans: (0.02)(0.98)9

3. If the probability is 0.40, that a child exposed to a certain contagious disease will catch it, what is the probability that the 10th child exposed to the disease will be the third to catch it?

Ans: C29(0.40)3(0.60)7image

4. Find the probability that in tossing four coins one will get either all heads or tails for the third time on seventh toss?

Ans: C26(18)3(78)3image

5. The probability of a student passing a subject is 0.6. What is the probability that he will pass in the subject in his third attempt?

Ans: (0.6)(0.4)2

6. In a company, a group of particular items is accepted if more items are tested before the first defective is found. If m=5, and the group consists of 15% defective items, what is the probability that it will be accepted?

Ans: 0.04437

4.25 Continuous Probability Distributions

In this section we discuss the method of finding the probability distributions associated with continuous random variables and also how to use the mean and SD to describe these distributions.

4.25.1 Uniform Distribution

Let X be a continuous random variable. X is said to have uniform distribution, if its pdf is given by

f(x)=k,a<x<b=0,otherwise

image

where k is a constant given by abf(x)dx=1image

i.e.,

abkdx=1

image

or

k[x]ab=1

image

or

k(ba)=1

image

or

k=1ba

image

Hence

f(x)=1ba,a<x<b=0,otherwise

image

Uniform distribution is also known as rectangular distribution.

The distribution function f(x) of X is given by

F(x)={0,<x<axaba,axb1,b<x<

image

Clearly F(x) is not continuous at the two end points, x=a and x=b. Hence F(x) is not differentiable at x=a and x=b.

The pdf of a uniform variate X is (−a, a) is given by

f(x)={12a,a<x<a0,otherwise

image

4.25.1.1 Moments of the Uniform Distribution

We have μr=rthimage moment about the origin

=abxrf(x)dx=abxr1badx=1ba[xr+1r+1]ab=br+1ar+1(r+1)(ba)

image

Putting r=1, 2, 3, 4 we obtain,

μ1=b2a22(ba)=b+a2μ2=b3a33(ba)=b2+ba+a22μ3=b4a44(ba)=(b2+a2)(b+a)4μ4=b5a55(ba)=b4+b3a+b2a2+ba3+a45

image

4.25.1.2 Mean of Uniform Distribution

μ1=E(X)=b+a2

image

4.25.1.3 Variance of Uniform Distribution

μ2=μ2μ12b2+ab+a23(b+a)24=112[4b2+4ab+4a23b23a26ab]=112[b2+a22ab]=(ba)212

image

4.25.1.4 Moment Generating Function of the Uniform Distribution

We have

M(t)=E[etx]=abetx1badx=ebteat(ba)t=(1+bt1!+b2t22!+)(1+at1!+a2t22!+)(ba)t=1+b+a2t+b3a33(ba)t22+b4a44(ba)t33+

image

Example 4.79: If X is uniformly distributed over (a,a)image. Find a so that P(X>1)=1/3image.

Solution: Therefore the pdf of X is

f(x)={130,0<x<300,otherwise

image

We have

P(X>1)=13(given)

image

i.e.,

1af(x)dx=13

image

or

1a12adx=13

image

or

12a[x]1a=13

image

or

a12a=13

image

i.e., 3a–3=2a

Hence a=3

Example 4.80: Subway trains on a certain line run after every half an hour between midnight and 6:00 in the morning. What is the probability that a man entering the station at a random time during this period will have to wait at least 20 minutes?

Solution: Let the waiting time for the next train by the man be denoted by X.

Clearly X is a random variable which in uniformly distributed in (0, 30) when the man arrived at station. The pdf of X is given by

f(x)={130,0<x<300,otherwise

image

Probability that a man entering the station at random waits at least 20 minutes

=P(X20)=2030f(x)dx=2030130dx=130[x]2030=302030=13

image

4.25.2 Exponential and Negative Exponential Distribution

Let X be a continuous random variable, X is said to have an exponential distribution if the pdf of x is given by

f(x)={ex,x00,otherwise

image

and X is said to have a negative exponential distribution with parameter λ>0image. If the pdf is given by

f(x)={λeλx,x>00,x0

image

Mean of negative exponential distribution is 1/λimage and the variance is 1/λ2image, the mgf of the negative exponential distribution is λλt,(λ>t)image rth moment about origin is r!/λrimage, r=1, 2, 3,….

4.26 Normal Distribution

The Normal distribution is a continuous distribution. It was first discovered by Abraham De moivre (1667–1754). He derived normal probability function as the limiting form of the binomial distribution, simultaneously Karl Friedrich Gauss (1777–1853) has also derived normal distribution as law of errors. Hence the normal probability distribution is also called as the Gaussian distribution.

Definition 4.31

A continuous random variable X is said to have a Normal distribution if its probability function is given by

f(x)=1σ2πe12[xμσ]2,(<x<)

image

where μ=mean of the normal random variable; σ=Standard deviation of the normal variable X; σ2=Variance of the normal variable X and are the parameters of the distribution. If X follows Normal distribution then it is denoted by X~N(μ,σ)image.

4.26.1 Standard Normal Variable

Computing the area over intervals under the normal probability distribution is difficult task. Consequently we will use a table of areas as a function of Z-score. The Z-score give the distance between the measurement and the mean in units equal to the SD. Z is always a normal random variable with mean and SD 1. For this reason Z is often referred to as the standard normal random variable. Z is a continuous random variable.

Definition 4.32

The standard normal random variable Z is defined by

Z=xμσ

image

where μ=mean of the normal random variable X; σ=Standard deviation of the normal variable X; X=normal random variable.

Definition 4.33

A random variable Z=(xμ)/σimage is said to have a standard normal distribution if its probability function is defined by

f(z)=12πe12Z2,(<Z<)

image

A standard normal variate is denoted by N(0, 1). Standard normal distribution is also known as Z-distribution or unit Normal distribution. Standardization of Normal distribution helps us to make use of the tables of area of standard curve.

12πe12Z2

image

For various points along the x-axis

The area between the points say Z1 and Z2 under the standard normal curve will represent the probability, the z will lie between Z1 and Z2. It is denoted by

P(Z1ZZ2)

image

The general equation of the normal curve is

y=f(x)=1σ2πe12[xμσ]2,(<x<)

image

If the corresponding total frequency is N then

y=f(x)=Nσ2πe12[xμσ]2

image

is the equation if best fitting normal probability curve.

4.26.2 Distribution Function φ(Z)image of Standard Normal Variate

The distribution function φ(Z)image of standard normal variate, Z is defined by properties of

φ(Z)=P(Zz)=Zf(t)dt=12πZe12Z2

image

where

Z=xμσ

image

Properties of φ(Z)image:

1. φ(Z)=1φ(Z)image

2. P(aXb)=φ(bμσ)φ(aμσ)image

3. P(Za)=P(Z≥−a)

4.26.3 Area Under Normal Curve

The curve of normal distribution is unimodal and is bell shaped with the highest point over the mean μ. It is symmetrical about a vertical line through μ.

The normal curve has the following features (Fig. 4.2):

1. The curve is symmetrical about the coordinate at its mean, which locates the peak of the bell.

2. The values of mean, median, and mode are equal.

3. The curve extends from image to image.

4. The area covered between μσimage and μ+σimage is 0.6826 (i.e., 68.26% of the total area).

5. The area covered between the limits μ2σimage and μ+2σimage is 0.9544 (i.e., 95.44% of area).

6. The area covered between μ3σimage and μ+3σimage is 0.9974 (i.e., 99.74% of area).

image
Figure 4.2 Normal curve.

4.26.4 Area Under Standard Normal Curve

Let X be a normal random variable and if Z be the corresponding standard normal variable then Z and X have identical curves. The curve of Z is called standard normal curve. The area bounded by a standard normal variable Z, the Z axis and the ordinates at Z=image and any positive value of Z is provided by a standard table.

The standard normal curve covers 68.26% area between Z=−1 and 1.

Therefore

P(1Z1)=0.6826

image

The curve covers 95.44% of the total area between Z=−2 and 2.

Therefore

P(2Z2)=0.9544

image

And the area covered between Z=−3 and 3 is 99.74% of the total area.

Hence

P(3Z3)=0.9474

image

4.26.5 Properties of Normal Curve

1. The mean μ and variance σ2 of a normal distribution are called the parameters of the distribution.

2. The mean, median, and mode of a normal distribution coincide with each other.

3. In a normal distribution, mean deviation about mean is approximately equal to 4/3image times its SD.

4. In a normal distribution, the quartiles Q1 and Q3 are equidistant from the median.

5. The normal curve is bell shaped and is symmetrical about X=μimage.

6. The area bound by the normal curve and x-axis equal to 1.

7. The tails of the curve of a normal distribution extend identically in both sides of x=μimage and never touch the x-axis.

8. The probability that x lies between a and b is equal to the area bounded by the curve X-axis and ordinates X=a and X=b.

4.26.6 Mean of Normal Distribution

Consider the normal distribution with as the parameter then,

f(x)=1σ2πe12[xμσ]2,(<x<)

image

Mean of X=E[x]

Therefore

μ=E[X]=xf(x)dx=1σ2πe12[xμσ]2dx

image

Putting

Z=xμσimage, we have

dZ=dxσimage i.e., dx=σdZimage

and

x=μ+σZ

image

Hence we get

μ=12π(σz+μ)e12Z2dz=σ2πZe12z2dz+μ2πe12z2dz=σ2πZe12z2dz+2μ2π0e12z2dz=2μππ2=μ

image

4.26.7 Variance of Normal Distribution

Variance=E(Xμ)2

image

i.e.,

V[X]=(xμ)2f(x)dx=1σ2π(xμ)2e12[xμσ]2dx

image

Putting Z=xμσimage, we get

V[X]=1σ2πσ2z2e12z2(σdz)

image

Putting Z2/2=timage, we obtain

V[X]=2σ22π02tetdt2t=2σ2π0ettdt=2σ2π0ett321dt=2σ2πΓ(32)=2σ2π32Γ(12)=σ2π.π

image

Hence variance=σ2

4.26.8 Mode of Normal Distribution

We have

f(x)=1σ2πe12[xμσ]2

image

Applying logarithms on both sides, we get

Logf(x)=logσ2π12σ2(xμ)2

image

Differentiating with respect to x we get

f(x)f(x)=1σ2(xμ)

image

or

f(x)=1σ2(xμ)f(x) (4.17)

image (4.17)

Again differentiating, we get

f(x)=1σ2[1.f(x)+(xμ)f(x)]

image

=f(x)σ2[1((xμ)σ)2]image using Eq. 4.17

f ′(x)=0 gives x=μ (since f(x) ≠ 0)

At x=μ, we have

f(x)=1σ2f(u)=1σ21σ2π=1σ32π<0

image

Hence x=μ is the mode of the distribution.

4.26.9 Median of the Normal Distribution

Let M denote the median of normal distribution

Mf(x)dx=12

image

i.e.,

1σ2πμe12[xμσ]2dx+1σ2πμMe12[xμσ]2dx=12 (4.18)

image (4.18)

Consider

1σ2πμe12[xμσ]2dx

image

Putting

xμσ=Zimage, we get dx=σdz

Therefore

1σ2πμe12[xμσ]2dx=12π0e12z2dz=12π0e12z2dz(bysymmetry)=12ππ2=12 (4.19)

image (4.19)

from Eqs. (4.18) and (4.19), we obtain

12+1σ2πμMe12[xμσ]2dx=12

image

thus

1σ2πμMe12[xμσ]2dx=0

image

or

μMe12[xμσ]2dx=0

image

which is possible when μ=M

Hence

μ=M

image

i.e., Median of normal distribution=μ

4.26.10 Moment Generating Function of Normal Distribution With Respect to Origin

We have

Mx(t)=E(etx)=etxf(x)dx=1σ2πetxe12[xμσ]2dx

image

Putting

xμσ=Zimage, we get

Mx(t)=eμt2πe12z2+(tσ)2dz=eμt+12t2σ22πe12(z2tσ)2dz=eμt+12t2σ22π2π2=eμt+12t2σ2

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4.26.11 Mean Deviation of Normal Distribution

Wehavemeandeviation=|xμ|f(x)dx=1σ2πe12[xμσ]2|xμ|dx=σ2πe12z2|z|dzwhereZ=xμσ,=2σ2π0e12z2|z|dz(sincetheintegraliseven)=σ2π=45σ(approximately)

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4.26.11.1 Solved Examples

Example 4.81: A normal distribution has a mean 20 and a SD of 4. Find out the probability that a value of X lies between 20 and 24?

Solution: We have μ=20, and σ=4 (given)

Z=xμσ=x204

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When

X=20,Z=20204=0

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And when

X=24,Z=24204=1

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Therefore Z lies between 20 and 24, the value of Z lies between 0 and 1.

Hence

P(0Z1)=0.3413

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Example 4.82: The mean and SD of a normal variable x are 50 and 4, respectively. Find the values of the corresponding standard normal variable when x is equal to 42, 54, and 84?

Solution: We have

μ=50, and σ=4 (given)

Z=xμσ=x504

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when

x=42,Z=42504=2

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when

x=54,Z=54504=1

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and when

x=84,Z=84504=8.5

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Example 4.83: Find the area under the standard normal curve which lies

1. to the left of Z=1.73.

2. to the right of Z=−0.66.

3. between Z=1.25 and Z=1.67.

4. between Z=−1.45 and Z=1.45.

Solution:

1. Area to the left of Z=1.73

=0.5+areabetweenZ=0andZ=1.73=0.5+0.4582=0.9582(usingthetable)

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2. Area to the right of Z=−0.66

=areafromZ=0.66toZ=0+0.5=0.2454+0.5=0.7454(usingthetable)

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3. Area between Z=1.25 and 1.67

=AreabetweenZ=0and1.67(AreabetweenZ=0and1.25)=0.45250.3944=0.0581(usingthetable)

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4. Area between Z=−1.45 and 1.45

=AreabetweenZ=0and1.45(AreabetweenZ=0and1.45)(bysymmetry)=2(AreabetweenZ=0and1.45)=2(0.4265)=0.8530(usingthetable)

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Example 4.84: The ABC company uses a machine to fill boxes with soap powder. Assume that the net weight of the boxes of soap powder is normally distributed with mean 15 ounces and SD 8 ounces.

1. What proportion of boxes will have net weight of more than 14 ounces?

2. 25% of boxes will be heavier than a certain net weight ω and 75% of the boxes will be lighter than this net weight. Find ω?

Solution: We have μ=15 ounce, σ=0.8 ounce

Let Z be the standard normal variable

Z=xμσ=x150.8

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1. When x=14,

Z=14150.8=10.8=1.25

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when

X=14theprobabilitythatX14=P(X14)=P(Z>1.25)=P(1.25Z0)+P(Z0)=P(0Z1.25)+0.5=0.3944+0.5=0.8944

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89.44% boxes will have their net weight greater than 14.

2. Taking x=ω, we have Z=xμσ=ω150.8image
Probability of Z being greater than ω150.8image is 0.25.
Therefore 0.25=0.5P(0Zω150.8)image
i.e., P(0Zω150.8)=0.50.25=0.25image
The value of Z for which the probability is 0.25=0.675
Therefore ω150.8=0.694image
or ω=0.675×0.8+15=15.54ouncesimage

Example 4.85: Let X denote the number of successes in test. If X is normally distributed with mean 100 and SD 15. Find the probability that x does not exceed 130?

Solution: We have μ=100 and σ=15

Let

Z=xμσ=x10015

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Probability that x does not exceed 130=P(X≤130).

=P=P(Z2)=P(<Z0)+P(0Z2)=0.5+0.4772=0.9772(fromtheareatable)

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Example 4.86: Assume that mean height of soldiers to be 68.22 in. with a variance of 10.8 in. How many soldiers in a regiment of 1000 would you expect to be over 6 ft. tall?

Solution: We have μ=68.22, σ2=10.8, σ=10.8=3.286image

X=6ft.=6×12=72in.

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when

X=72,Z=xμσ=7268.223.286=1.1503

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P(X>72)=P(Z>1.1503)=0.5P(0<Z<1.1503)=0.50.3749=0.1251

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Expected number of soldiers over 6 ft. tall in regiment of

1000=1000×0.1251=125.1=125soldiers.

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Example 4.87: What is the probability that a standard normal variate Z will be lying between 1.25 and 2.75?

Solution:

P(1.25<Z<2.75)=P(0<Z<2.75)P(0<Z<1.25)=AreabetweenZ=0andZ=2.75(AreabetweenZ=0andZ=1.25)=0.49700.3944=0.1026

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Example 4.88: In a distribution exactly 7% of the items are under 35 and 89% of the items are under 63. What are the values of mean and SD of the distribution?

Solution: Let μ be the mean and σ be the SD of the distribution.

The area lying to the left of the ordinate at x=35 is 7%, i.e., 0.07. The corresponding values of Z is negative.

The area lying to the right of the ordinate at x=63 up to the mean μ is

=0.50.07=0.43.

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Hence the values of Z corresponding in the area 0.43 is 1.48.

i.e.,

35μσ=1.48orμ1.48σ=35 (4.20)

image (4.20)

Similarly the area lying to the left of the ordinate at x=63 up to the mean is 0.39 (i.e., 39%).

The value of Z corresponding to the area 0.39 is 1.23.

i.e.,

63μσ=1.23orμ+1.23σ=63 (4.21)

image (4.21)

From Eqs. (4.20) and (4.21), we get

μ=50.3;σ=1.33

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Example 4.89: The income of a group of 10,000 persons was found to be normally distributed with mean equal to Rs. 750, and SD equal to Rs. 50. What was lowest income among the richest 250?

Solution: We have μ=750, σ=50 (given)

Let x′ be the lowest income among the richest 250 people.

Then

P(xx)=25010,000(given)

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i.e.,

P(xμσx75050)=0.025

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or

P(Zx75050)=0.025

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We obtain

(x75050)=1.96

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or

x750=50×1.96

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or

x=750+98=848

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Hence Rs. 848 is the lowest income among the richest 250 people.

Example 4.90: If loge x is normally distributed with mean 1 and variance 4. Find P(12<X<2)image given that loge2=0.693?

Solution: Here we have μ=1, variance=σ2=4 (given)

σ=4=2

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Let

X=logexZ=xμσ=x12=logex12

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When

x=12,Z1=loge1212=loge1loge212=loge212=0.69312=0.8465

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When x=2,

Z2=loge212=0.69312=0.1535

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P(12<X<2)=P(Z1<Z<Z2)=P(0.8465<Z<0.1535)=P(0.1535>Z>0.8465)=AreabetweenZ=0andZ=0.8465(AreabetweenZ=0andZ=0.1535)=0.29960.0596=0.24

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Example 4.91: In a normal distribution, 31% of the items are under 45 and 8% are over 64. Find the mean and SD of the distribution?

Solution: Let X be the normal variable, μ denote the mean, and σ be the SD of X.

Let

Z=xμσ

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It is given that

P(X>64)=31100=0.31

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And

P(X>64)=8100=0.08

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Since

P(X<45)<0.5

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X lies to the left of X=μ, therefore the value of Z is negative say Z1.

i.e., when x=45, let Z=45μσ=Z1,(Z1>0)(say)image

Similarly Z is positive when X=64

Let

Z=64μσ=Z2(Z2>0)

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We have

P(X<45)=0.3

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i.e.,

P(Z<Z1)=0.31

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or

P(Z>Z1)=0.31

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or

0.5P(0ZZ1)=0.31

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i.e.,

P(0ZZ1)=0.19Z1=0.5(fromtheareatable)

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Therefore

45μσ=0.5

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or

45μ=0.5σ (4.22)

image (4.22)

Also we have

P(X>64)=0.08

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i.e.,

P(Z>Z2)=0.08

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or

0.5P(0ZZ2)=0.08P(0ZZ2)=0.42

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Hence Z2=1.4 (from the area table)

Therefore

64μσ=1.4

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or

64μ=1.4σ (4.23)

image (4.23)

Solving Eqs. (4.22) and (4.23) we get

μ=50andσ=10

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Example 4.92: The mean inside diameter of a sample of 200 washers produced by a machine is 0.502 cm and that SD is 0.005 cm. The purpose for which these washers are intended allows a maximum tolerance is the diameter of 0.496–0.508 cm. Otherwise the washers are considered to be defective washers produced by machine, assuming the diameters are naturally distributed.

Solution: we have μ=0.502 cm and σ=0.005 cm

Let z be the standard normal variable

Z=xμσ=x0.5020.005

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Probability that a washer is not defective

=P(0.496X0.508)=P(0.4960.5020.005X0.5020.0050.5080.5020.005)=P(1.2X1.2)=2P(0X1.2)(Bysymmetry)=2(0.3849)=0.7698

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