5
Change outcomes

A significant share of M&A research is dedicated to unraveling their performance outcomes. In the main, this has been defined in financial terms. However, there are multiple methods to measure performance, and acquisitions may not be motivated by financial performance. As mentioned in Chapter 2, acquisitions may also primarily be driven by other motives, including firm survival. For example, Chaturvedi and Prescott (2016) find firms experiencing disruptive technology changes are more likely to survive if they have slack resources and acquisition experience. Still, firm survival remains relatively low (Carmeli & Markman, 2011), and, if acquisitions help firms change and survive, this could be an important outcome. Another consideration is that, if competitors make similar adjustments to increase the level of competition an acquiring firm faces (cf., Derfus, Maggitti, Grimm, & Smith, 2008), then this could explain the continued use of acquisitions in the face of evidence that they do not increase firm performance. In the following paragraphs, we summarize financial measures of acquisition performance, as well as discuss alternative measures, before offering explanations for why acquisition performance (on average) does not improve.

M&A performance

Organizational performance may represent the ultimate outcome of management research (Richard et al., 2009; Greenwood & Miller, 2010). Most research assumes acquisitions improve performance, but acquisition performance is a multi-dimensional construct and selection of performance measures needs to be part of the initial research design and this requires a clear understanding of differences in performance measures (Cording et al., 2010; Richard et al., 2009). Both objective and subjective measures of performance contain errors (Wall et al., 2004), driving the need to compare multiple measures of performance to understand the aggregate impact of research variables on performance (King et al., 2004; Richard et al., 2009; Schoenberg, 2006). Table 5.1 shows a comparison of primary research measures that are developed more in the following paragraphs. After reviewing the primary financial performance measures used in acquisition research, possible alternative measures are discussed.

Table 5.1 Comparison of common measures of acquisition performance

Advantages Disadvantages

Accounting (ROA; ROS; ROE)
  • Covers performance after acquisition
  • Widely available
  • Does not change due to measurement (repeatable)

  • Accounting standards differ across nations
  • Limited to public firms
  • Can be manipulated by managers
  • Influenced by industry
  • Does not consider risk
  • Confounding events
Stock (short)
  • Measures market reaction to announcement (efficient market)
  • Widely available
  • Does not change due to measurement (repeatable)

  • Better predictor than measure of performance
  • Information asymmetry surrounds acquisitions
  • Limited to public firms
Stock (long)
  • Measures impact of having invested in firm after acquisition
  • Widely available
  • Does not change due to measurement (repeatable)

  • Confounding events
  • Limited to public firms
  • Difficult to compare across nations
Tobin’s Q
  • Hybrid of stock and accounting measures
  • Widely available

  • Accounting component based on historical versus replacement costs
Managerial survey
  • Able to measure multiple dimensions of performance
  • Access to private information

  • Concerns about bias (recall, etc.)

Accounting

A frequently employed measure of acquisition performance examines the change in accounting performance using a variety of measures, including return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on sales (ROS). With respect to acquisitions, different accounting measures also display important differences. For example, ROA has been recognized as a biased measure of performance (e.g., Ravenscraft & Scherer, 1987; Sirower, 1997). Specifically, paying a premium for an acquisition target raises the asset base of an acquired firm driving lower measures of performance with ROA (Sirower, 1997, p. 51). While Ramaswamy (1997) suggests dropping the merger year from the comparison mitigates this problem, it is only true if a firm is not a frequent acquirer.

In general, accounting data offers detail on financial effects following M&A. Still, the use of accounting measures to evaluate performance is not without criticism, including possible manager manipulation, a historical focus, and undervaluation of intangible assets (Rowe & Morrow, 1999; Trahms, Ndofor, & Sirmon, 2013). Accounting measures of performance are also only gauge economic performance (Papadakis & Thanos, 2010). For example, accounting measures do not necessarily include: 1) an assessment of the overall performance of a firm in relation to its environment, 2) a comparison to other investment options, or 3) a consideration of risk (Lubatkin & Shrieves, 1986). Another concern is that industry can help to explain accounting performance (Brush, Bromiley, & Hendrickx, 1999). This reflects a need to control for industry in acquisition research (e.g., Dess, Ireland, & Hitt, 1990; Stimpert & Duhaime, 1997), but controlling for industry is often absent in acquisition research (Meglio & Risberg, 2011). Overall, accounting measures reflect changes over greater lengths of time and are less precise measures of changes due to an acquisition.

A prior meta-analysis found ROA is the most commonly applied accounting measure of acquisition performance and that a one-year measure of ROA as an indicator of acquisition performance is both significant (p <.001) and negative (King et al., 2004, p. 192). One implication is that the use of ROA could have a conservative impact if a positive relationship with explanatory variables is expected. Conversely, if a negative impact of an explanatory variable is expected, using ROA could make significant results more likely. While this can make ROA a conservative measure of M&A performance, we suggest M&A research uses either ROS or ROE, and not ROA. For example, ROS is not affected by the method of accounting for acquisition premium (Markides & Williamson, 1994) and ROS has been identified as an evaluation criterion used by managers (Ingham, Kran, & Lovestam, 1992), and ROE has been identified as a criterion used by investors, such as Warren Buffet (Ferraro, 2009). The primary strength of accounting measures involves relatively easy collection and replication from archival sources, since they do not change from observation and needed information is generally available for public firms.

Stock market

Actions managers take would be difficult to assess without stock prices (Holmstrom & Kaplan, 2001). Similar to accounting measures, stock measures of performance can be unobtrusively and repeatedly obtained, but they are only available for public firms. There are still challenges in making comparisons across different nations (Park, 2003). Regardless, stock market measures of acquisition performance are the most commonly applied measure in M&A research (e.g., King et al., 2004), and the majority of variables examined by acquisition research are known at acquisition announcement (Cording et al., 2010). Stock market measures of performance also have the advantage of being largely independent of manager manipulation. Still, both short-term and long-term stock market measures of acquisition performance have advantages and disadvantages, contributing to calls to use multiple measures of performance. We discuss different measures of stock performance around the timeframe typically used.

Short-term

Based on prior meta-analysis, empirical research on acquisition performance predominantly relies on short-term (less than 21 days) measures of acquisition performance (King et al., 2004, p. 192). Invariably, an event study is used to measure cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) around an acquisition announcement (Harrison & Schijven, 2016) in a regression model that includes observable variables of the combining firms to predict performance differences. Event studies rely on an assumption of an efficient market that has the needed information to make an updated valuation of a firm’s prospects (Fama, 1970). Stock market reactions to acquisition announcements are similar to a survey of financial market participants (Harrison & Freeman, 1999). However, the assumption of perfect information is difficult to uphold for acquisitions where later surprises are inevitable (Vester, 2002). Another consideration is investors not only assess performance of a focal firm, but how others are likely to assess it.

One implication of information asymmetry surrounding acquisitions at their announcement is that uncertainty causes investor reactions to be conservative. Another implication is that managers often use road shows to court investment community acceptance of an acquisition (Brauer & Wiersema, 2012) to overcome investor uncertainty. As a result, short-term stock market measures in acquisition research may downwardly bias abnormal returns due to the implicit assumption all needed information to accurately price the impact of an acquisition is available to the market when it is announced (Loderer & Martin, 1992; Lubatkin & Shrieves, 1986). While larger event windows can accommodate information leakage or anticipation of mergers (Fridolfsson & Stennek, 2010), shorter event windows exhibit fewer problems (Fama, 1998). However, in an attempt to control for other information, short-term stock measures overlook information outside an event window that may either represent noise or information that is likely relevant. For example, investors have difficulty judging integration issues at announcement (Schoenberg, 2006). This leads to observations that time around acquisition announcement is needed for investors to process information, and Harrison and Schijven (2016) suggest the use of 7-day event window. In other words, short-term event windows imply investors can accurately predict how long and complex integration processes will evolve.

As a result, short-term stock market measures reflect expected versus actual performance (Papadakis & Thanos, 2010). Stock market announcements and subsequent reactions may signal whether an acquisition is expected to create value (e.g., Lou, 2005; King et al., 2008) with greater magnitudes of investor reaction sending a stronger signal for good or poor performance. While initial market reactions to acquisitions are not always right (Carline et al., 2009), positive market reactions to an acquisition announcement are viewed as an endorsement that gives proposed deals credibility (Chatterjee, 2009). Meanwhile, research on stock market reactions on environmental performance suggests investor reactions are stronger for negative events (Endrikat, 2016), and Luo (2005) maintains that manager learning from negative market reactions can delay completion. However, it is likely that managers continue to try complete acquisitions, as few deals are terminated due to a negative market reaction and most deal terminations surprise the market (Lai, Moore, & Oppenheimer, 2006).

Long-term

Assuming the overall goal of firms is to maximize long-term market value, the full impact of firm policies and manager decisions will only be revealed over time. Long-term stock performance also provides an objective method of comparison (Jensen, 2010) of what an acquisition achieves. Consistent with this perspective acquisitions represent a process (Jemison & Sitkin, 1986) more than an event with information continuing to be revealed after an acquisition announcement. As a result, multiple researchers cast doubt on the applicability of event studies using short-windows to acquisition research (e.g., Andrade et al., 2001; Cording et al., 2010; Meglio & Risberg, 2011; Schijven & Hitt, 2012). These observations have led to the use of long-term stock market measures in acquisition research with researchers often suggesting at least three years is needed to observe changes in firm performance following an acquisition (King et al., 2008; Nadolska & Barkema, 2014).

Meanwhile, long-term stock market measures of acquisition performance can be impacted by confounding events (McWilliams & Siegel, 1997) making long-term measures of stock performance not event specific (Bessem-binder & Zhang, 2013). Further, while CAR (with different time windows) is consistently applied as a short-term measure of stock market performance, there are multiple measures of long-term performance including CAR, buy and hold abnormal return (BHAR), average monthly returns, and Jensen’s alpha. While some researchers contend BHAR is inferior (Fama, 1998), none of the different measures are perfect. An advantage of BHAR and Jensen’s alpha is that they approximate an investor’s return in comparison to a benchmark (i.e. S&P500), assuming they bought the stock of an acquiring firm around the day an acquisition was announced (e.g., King et al., 2008).

Tobin’s Q

Tobin’s Q is a hybrid measure that incorporates both stock market and accounting information, as it is a ratio of a firm’s market value (i.e., stock) to book value (i.e., accounting). Tobin’s Q is often used as a control for the quality of a firm’s management (e.g., Lang, Stulz, & Walkling, 1989), a firm’s market valuation (e.g., Haleblian et al., 2012), or intangible assets (e.g., Humphery-Jenner, 2014). However, it can also be used as a performance measure. For example, Humphery-Jenner (2014) uses Tobin’s Q as both a control of a firm’s management quality and a proxy for long-term acquisition performance for hard to value firms. A limitation of Tobin’s Q is that book value reflects the historical and not replacement cost of assets (Richard et al., 2009). Tobin’s Q is more common in acquisition research published in finance and economic journals.

Managerial assessment

While financial measures of performance focus on shareholders at the expense of other stakeholders (Koslowski, 2000), managerial assessment of acquisitions can examine multiple dimensions of acquisition performance (Papadakis & Thanos, 2010). This has contributed to an increased use of manager assessment of performance in acquisition research (e.g., Bauer et al., 2018; Bresman et al., 1999; Homburg & Bucerius, 2006). For example, managers have private information that may enable better estimates of acquisition performance (Laamanen, 2007; Schijven & Hitt, 2012). Specifically, many integration outcomes, such as cultural integration, are only available to managers (Gates & Very, 2003).

Objective performance measures are also often unavailable (i.e., private firms) making managerial assessment of performance the only available option (Dess & Robinson, 1984; Papadakis & Thanos, 2010; Wall et al., 2004). With appropriate sampling, researchers can generalize about a larger population from a smaller sample with surveys to enable validity checks and replication (Fink & Kosecoff, 1998). However, scale construction, survey response rates, manager bias, lack of information, and common method bias each represent concerns with surveys that ask managers to assess acquisition performance (e.g., Grant & Verona, 2015; Podsakoff & Organ, 1986). Still, research supports that managerial measures of performance correlate with objective measures of performance and provide similar results (Dess & Robinson, 1984; Papadakis & Thanos, 2010; Richard et al., 2009; Wall et al., 2004). In an unpublished meta-analysis, managerial assessment of acquisition performance provided similar results to accounting measures of performance, providing evidence that the use of managerial assessment in acquisition research is valid.

Unrealistic expectations?

In considering measures of acquisition performance, and consistent findings that acquisitions on average display no change in performance, it may be useful to step back and ask whether it is reasonable to expect acquisition performance to improve. Upfront, we are not disputing that variance in acquisition performance exists and we confirm that it remains an imperative for research to identify drivers of acquisition performance. Still, is it surprising that on average that acquisition performance is near zero?

If markets are competitive and acquisitions represent a means that firms adapt to maintain a fit with their environment, then improved competitiveness for an acquirer may only result in performance parity (cf. Derfus et al., 2008). Improved acquisition performance is also handicapped by the need for an acquirer to pay a premium to gain control of a target firm and its assets (Sirower, 1997; Wright, Renneboog, Simons & Scholes, 2006). An average premium of roughly 40 percent is consistently reported (Boone & Mulherin, 2007; Jensen, 1993; Laamanen, 2007). Higher premiums reduce the potential benefit to an acquirer from making an acquisition by sharing the benefits with a target firm (Roll, 1986; Sirower, 1997). Higher premiums increase the pressure on acquiring firm managers and this can lead to engaging in risker actions and cost reductions that are often counterproductive (Hitt et al., 2009). Meanwhile, competition does not remain idle and can take actions that degrade planned performance improvements (Porter, 1980; Sirower, 1997).

Continued use of acquisitions by firms, even if they do not improve performance on average, may still be rational if performance is maintained and a better fit with a firm’s environment contributes to its continued survival. Additionally, since target firms experience gains and resources can be expected to be put to more efficient uses, there are overall societal benefits from acquisitions (Abramovitz, 1986; Dutz, 1989). In summary, we recognize that there is variance in acquisition performance and that acquirers are likely able and should work to improve their performance. However, it is a consistent finding that “on average” acquisition performance is near zero (King et al., 2004), and we believe this is explainable. Next, we consider alternative performance measures, including innovation, and increased firm survival.

Alternative performance measures

Acquisitions also can display non-financial motives, and we discuss two that would still make the use of acquisitions rational or provide insights into resource transfer – innovative performance and firm survival.

Innovative performance

A significant amount of acquisition activity involves high-technology firms and they display important differences (Bower, 2001). For example, one estimate is that high-technology acquisitions represent 20 percent of the number of acquisitions, but 40 percent of the total spending on acquisitions (Inkpen, Sundaram, & Rockwood, 2000), as high-technology acquisitions demand higher premiums (Laamanen, 2007). Technology acquisitions also provide resources to acquirers (Ahuja & Katila, 2001; King et al., 2008). Assuming half of acquisitions fail, it may be rational to acquire proven technology resources as up to 75 percent of R&D is estimated to go to products that fail (Christensen & Raynor, 2003; King et al., 2008). Acquirers can also benefit from economies of scale with R&D to leverage greater productivity from lower investment (Desyllas & Hughes, 2010). However, leveraging innovation potential from an acquisition requires knowledge transfer (Bauer, Matzler, & Wolf, 2016) and this risks disrupting knowledge assets in a target firm (Ranft & Lord, 2002).

There is a growing body of research examining innovative performance, but the advantages and challenges of acquisitions suggest there is not a simple relationship (e.g., Lee & Kim, 2016; Patel & King, 2016; Puranam et al., 2006; Ransbotham & Mitra, 2010). Another consideration is that innovative performance is multi-dimensional, or it considers R&D, patents, and citations, and new products (Hagedoorn & Cloodt, 2003). Additional research needs to examine the impact of acquisitions on innovation performance and variable relationships that influence that performance.

Firm survival

Changes in acquiring firm survival is not a traditional focus in acquisition research (cf. Meglio & Risberg, 2010; Zollo & Meier, 2008), but consideration of firm survival as an explicit outcome measure could broaden our understanding of acquisitions. While there is limited empirical support for common assumptions on relationships between performance and survival (Gimeno, Folta, Cooper, & Woo, 1997), most organizations do not survive for long periods of time (Carmeli & Markman, 2011; O’Reilly & Tushman, 2011). One reason is that firms fail to make internal adaptations to maintain fit with their external environment (Burgelman & Grove, 2007; Sinkula, Baker, & Noordewier, 1997). A contributing problem is that organizational systems designed to enhance survival in stable environments can contribute to inertia and decline following environmental change (Hill & Rothaermel, 2003). This reflects a need for organizations to display similar levels of variety as their environment to survive (Kim & Rhee, 2009). This is difficult, and one way to overcome this challenge is to conduct acquisitions to broaden an acquiring firm’s resources to survive (Almor et al., 2014; Capron & Mitchell, 2010; King, Schriber, Bauer, & Amiri, 2018).

Acquisitions involve change and create larger firms that may display survival benefits (Sutton, 1997). Still, research on change does not often consider survival as an outcome (Müller & Kunisch, 2017), and this is consistent in acquisition research. A focus on an acquisition’s financial performance persists, even though researchers recognize that pressures on firms to survive can motivate acquisitions (Kogut & Zander, 1992). Further, to enable adaptation through acquisitions (King et al., 2018), acquiring firms likely need prior acquisition experience and sufficient financial slack (Chaturvedi & Prescott, 2016). This suggests firms need capabilities to perform acquisitions to improve performance and increase survival by increasing resource variety that facilitates maintaining a fit between a firm and its environment (King et al., 2018). Research needs to compare the impact of acquisitions on financial performance and firm survival.

Acquisition capability

The proceeding logic also suggests an important outcome from completing acquisitions is building a firm’s acquisition capability, or its ability to successfully conduct M&A. Managers face a continuous challenge of balancing between organic growth, leveraging networks and alliances to pursue growth, or growing through acquisitions (Capron & Mitchell, 2010). The challenge comes from the fact that managers are limited in their ability to perform multiple tasks at once, and the uncertainty about the future state of the firm and its environment. It also comes from poorly understanding how to evaluate existing resources. For example, different strategic needs and firm resources make available options for growth more or less desirable (Moatti, Ren, Anand, & Dussage, 2015). Penrose (1959) suggests these demands require matching the rate and direction of firm growth with available managerial capacity. In fact, Penrose (1959, p. 5) emphasized that managerial capacity was the key limiting factor to firm expansion because it affects the productivity of all a firm’s resources. Restated, during acquisitions, managers have to: 1) effectively guide growth, and 2) then oversee operations in a larger and more complex firm.

As a result, managers and their capacity to manage growth represent a constraint on acquisitive growth (Lamont et al., 2018), and this capacity to manage change forms the foundation for an acquisition capability. For example, more growth means that managers have to execute an increased number of administrative tasks, a greater diversity of actions, and develop better coordination mechanisms between employees. An advantage of acquisition over organic growth for Penrose (1959) was that firms were also able to buy the managerial capacity of a target along with its other resources. That is, acquisitions are an attractive way to quickly expand managerial capacity for the acquirer because the target possesses a range and quality of services that can be uniquely bundled, organized, and leveraged (Sirmon, Hitt, & Ireland, 2007) with its own managers that can better utilize an acquirer’s resources. For acquisitions, this implies they are more common when a firm’s environment is changing (e.g., Heeley et al., 2006; Lee & Lieberman, 2010; Zarzewska-Bielawska, 2012). Under circumstances of change and adaptation, managerial capacity is needed to quickly “match” and buffer an organization against changes in the external environment. For example, Penrose (1959, p. 128) notes that acquirers must have excess managerial capacity beyond what is required to run a combined firm, or that acquisitive growth is constrained.

As a result, an acquirer’s managerial capacity is critical to acquisition success, but it can grow over time (Lamont et al., 2018). Although integration is required to improve acquisition performance (Capron, 1999; Capron & Mitchell, 1998; Penrose, 1959; Zaheer, Castaner, & Souder, 2011), when managed effectively, the integration process blends combining firms with different histories into a coherent functioning entity (Graebner et al., 2017; Marks & Mirvis, 1998, 2001). Acquisition integration is partly a planned, but mostly an emergent process that reconciles mismatches in demands, people, practices, structures, and systems (Garnsey, Stam, & Heffernan, 2006; Graebner et al., 2017; Nicholls-Nixon, 2005). For example, acquisitions evolve over time and early decisions can influence later outcomes in unexpected ways (Graebner, 2004; Graebner et al., 2017).

Managers have a dominant influence on new employee socialization, or they are an inherent part of the process of shifting task, social knowledge and organizational behaviors (Bauer & Green, 1998; Tan & Mahoney, 2007; Weeks & Galunic, 2003). For example, Ibarra (1999) describes role adaptation as involving a process of observing role models, experimenting, and receiving feedback. In this process, managers likely serve as role models and contribute to employees adopting a new organizational identity. This learning goes beyond facts to acting in accordance with social customs (Brown & Duguid, 2001), as managers need to devote considerable time to take into account the emotions, identifications, and justice perceptions of the people involved (Ellis, Reus & Lamont, 2009; Graebner et al., 2017; Vuori & Huy, 2015). A focus on the “softer-side” of the integration process rather than “harder-side” operational efficiencies is managerially difficult, as it is a more ambiguous process. However, this is particularly important given that a large component of knowledge resides in the routines and heads of people who can walk out of the door (Argote, 2013; Grant, 1996). This capability builds through tacit experience from managing acquisitions.

While unexpected organizational change, such as an acquisition, disrupts middle manager sensemaking (Balogun & Johnson, 2004), the disruption will remain lower for managers that have experience working together and are familiar with acquisition integration (Penrose, 1959). In the process of managing an acquisition and its integration, managers learn how to build, bundle, and leverage a combined firms’ other resources more effectively and transfer that knowledge to newly hired managers. As a result, successful integration of target firm managers will expand management capacity in a combined firm and enhance a firm’s acquisition capability (Lamont et al., 2018). For example, planning and execution grows management capacity by giving managers that are both old and new to a firm experience working together (Penrose, 1955). To the extent integration is successful, it will generate management capacity by increasing the number of managers with experience working together that have a common identity (Moldaschl & Fischer, 2004; Penrose, 1959).

A generative aspect of acquisitions on management capacity begins to explain Lockett and colleagues (2011) observation that acquisitive growth can increase organic growth. Prior experience from having gone through an acquisition previously can provide an advantage by lowering anxiety of what to expect. In other words, there is a positive relationship between task repetition and performance (Finkelstein & Haleblian, 2002). For retained target managers and employees, this will also provide empathy for the experience of target firm employees in a subsequent acquisition. As result, firm experience with associated integration and restructuring from acquisitions enables better decisions in future acquisitions (Barkema & Schijven, 2008). Overall, acquisitions increase the diversity of personnel, resources, and experience of an acquirer that managed effectively can build an acquirer’s capability and reputation for performing acquisitions (c.f., Secher & Horley, 2018).

The previous logic on acquisition experience suggests that top and middle managers can benefit from experience in the selection of targets and planning an approach to integration. However, research generally examines firm level experience, and middle manager experience may help with implementing strategic decisions that were made by top managers (Denis et al., 2009). The need for experience across the levels of an organization likely addresses long-standing observations to avoid acquisitions that exceed an acquirer’s managerial capacity (Kitching, 1967). Additionally, implementation often requires additional planning as a common organization for combining organizations is formed (Stensaker et al., 2008), and this requires middle manager involvement. For example, part of Cisco’s acquisition strategy is to leverage relationships between managers at different levels and pairing acquired employees with a Cisco mentor (Mayer & Kenney, 2004). Still, relying on prior ties risks managers ignoring other targets with more potential (Rogan & Sorenson, 2014). Meanwhile, research typically only examines acquisition experience as a simple count of a firm’s acquisitions without considering the managers involved or the applied learning mechanisms. Research focused on how acquisition capabilities form and what are the more important factors of such a capability is needed.

Summary and outlook

Change outcomes are arguably the focal point in organization research, and much M&A performance research focuses on this crossroad. However, the complexity of combining two firms reflects that performance is a multi-faceted concept. In other words, there are different ways to gauge acquisition outcomes, each with its own strengths and weaknesses, suggesting the need to use multiple measures of M&A performance. Without the ability to compare measures within and across research, only limited insights are possible on what motives and performance outcomes relate to one another. As a result, research needs to clarify the conditions where the resources invested in M&A are put productively to use.

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