#12: Stratification

Introduction to Concept:

Critical thinking involves the ability to “go beyond what is given,” in the words of learning theorist Jerome Bruner. As we reach for a new, higher level of understanding, we are assimilating what is given with what has already been obtained, and creating a new direction in which the new elements can logically move.

The ability to find patterns and understand how and what trends may be emerging is particularly prized when change is the order of the day. Not only can we lessen our vulnerability on a personal level by understanding what may be “coming down the pike,” we can also lessen it on the professional level. The first part of this exercise has you work on stratifications. These will serve as preludes to the second task, which has you and your team members assess information and make educated prognoses based on what you are given.

Procedure:

1. Divide the class into teams of three or four.

2. Distribute Worksheet #12-1 and ask teams to collaborate on the answers. After ten minutes, share these with them: 1–dog, 2–make, 3–down, 4–wear, 5–night, 6–crust, 7–paper, 8–house, 9–ball, 10–escape, 11–bowl, 12–cat, 13–pot, 14–pea, 15–road, 16–wheel, 17–shot, 18–neck, 19–phone, 20–book. (If any one person or team finishes with remarkable speed, ask them to share the secrets behind their quick-thinking skills.)

3. Distribute Worksheet #12-2. Allow about 15 minutes for participants to discuss it and record their answers.

4. Have two small groups merge to share their answers. They will prepare a summary, which will then be shared with the other merged groups.

Extending the Activity:

1. Collect statistics/predictions/quotations relevant to either the field in which participants work or the course you are facilitating. Use these as the basis for group and whole-class discussions, just as the entries on Worksheet #12-2 were used.

2. If possible, invite a futurist to share his or her insights with the class.

Workplace Connections:

1. Encourage participants to keep in touch with at least one other member of the class (allow time to exchange e-mail or work phone numbers). Keeping in touch in this case will mean a bi-monthly connection in which the participants discuss interesting statistics or current events that might impact the way they will work in the future.

2. Suggest a benchmarking project to participants. They will make arrangements to learn what others in similar industries or similar positions are doing to deal with emerging realities. The report that is prepared from the benchmarking study should be shared with a wide workplace audience.

Questions for Further Consideration:

1. How has your job changed (whether or not you have been doing it) over the last ten years?

2. Did you foresee those changes? Explain why or why not.

3. Who in your work environment really keeps abreast of advances in your field? Why do you think he or she does this?

4. What do you think is meant by Warren Bennis’s assertion that the factory of the future will have only two living beings in it: a dog to prevent people from touching the equipment, and a man to feed the dog?

5. America has moved from an industrial nation to a service economy. What other changes do you think will occur over the next century?

Directions: When we work to organize information, it helps if we can find commonalities among seemingly disparate pieces of information. A fun way to help sharpen your find-the-common-thread wits is called “stratification.” You will be given three words (i.e., head, roll, and on) and asked to find another word that has some connection to the first three. The word you are looking for might go in front of or behind each of the other three. For the three words just given, the answer is “egg”—egghead, egg roll, and egg on.

Answer:

Try making up some of your own. You’ll enjoy flexing your mental muscles this way. What’s more, though, you’ll be able to share them with friends, associates, and family members.

Directions: Select any one cluster of information and discuss it with your teammates. Then prepare, as a team, either a brief prediction of how the information cited may impact the future or a prediction about a trend that seems to be emerging.

CLUSTER A:

In late 2002, an average of 57,000 jobs a month were lost in the manufacturing sector, but in January of 2003, that number dropped to 16,000 jobs lost. ** More Americans work in the movie industry, according to Nuala Beck, than work in the automotive industry. ** Over 80% of the technological advances in the world have occurred in the last 100 years.

CLUSTER B:

Life expectancy has increased by six years since 1970. ** The planet is 7 million years old, but its population did not reach a billion until 1860. 75 years later, the population had doubled. By 1975, it doubled again, this time in only 50 years. ** “If you have always done it that way, it is probably wrong,” wrote Charles Kettering.

CLUSTER C:

“Progress might have been all right once, but it has gone on too long,” quipped Ogden Nash. ** 60 billion faxes are produced each year. ** Faster, smaller, cheaper. ** Adapt or die.

CLUSTER D:

750 million computer-generated pages are printed each day. ** “We are drowning in information but starved for knowledge!” wrote John Naisbitt. ** 95% of all information is stored on paper.