Appendix D

ANALYTICAL THINKING TEST
Answer Sheet

Directions: The correct answers are noted below, along with the reasons. Place a check mark beside every answer you got correct. There is a total of 20 points possible. Enter your score in this box ........................................................................................................................

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PART ONE

1. Automobile accidents in Maplewood

A.

False. The accident rate is not higher during the workweek. Even if this is a commuter town (which we don’t know), workweek accidents are as frequent as weekend ones ............................................................................................................................

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B.

True, since 250% is 2.5 times, and days are also 2.5 times as numerous in the workweek as on weekends .........................................................................................

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C.

We cannot tell until we define “dangerous,” which depends on when (hour of the day) and where (commuting, shopping, etc.) you’re driving ...............................................

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D.

True. (It would also be true if the statement said that Maplewood might be a commuter community.) ................................................................................................................

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2. Annual salaries for MBAs in Rotunda

A.

We don’t know this. If the distribution is normal, this would be true. But we cannot assume that income is distributed normally between 7,000 and 21,000 RD ..............

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B.

We don’t know this. There might be two distinct income groups, new vs. experienced, natives vs. mother country, government vs. private industry (i.e., a “bimodal” distribution) .................................................................................................................

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C.

This is not an issue of chance. George is a recent MBA, and pay is based on experience. George’s first-year earnings are likely to be less than 14,000 RD ..........

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D.

True if distribution is normal, false if distribution is bimodal. Since we don’t know, we must question the statement ......................................................................................

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3. Fuel oil consumption throughout Pennsyltucky

A.

True. People are more likely to remember annual consumption than “average monthly.” Also, the time of year of the survey may affect “monthly” estimates ...........

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B.

True. Fuel oil distributors could provide more accurate information and with much less effort by the researchers .....................................................................................

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C.

We don’t know enough to forecast. The research is shaky, the weather varies, and the 12-times-multiplier can turn small errors into large ones ............................................

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D.

True. Only homeowners were contacted. Some apartment dwellers might own their own apartments (condo, co-op, etc.), but some others don’t own, making the statement true .............................................................................................................

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4. Free check-up for new car purchases

A.

If it had read “majority of respondents,” then the statement would be true. But we need more than a 27% response to generalize to “majority of new car owners.” .......

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B.

True. Each part is true. Even if the first part had read “. . . may not be adequate,” it would still be true. Similarly, the second part is true whether it reads “may be” or “may not be.” In fact, we have reason to suspect that the respondents are not representative, since those not interested in a free check-up are less likely to reply than those favoring it. .................................................................................................

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C.

It is risky to infer motives from the dealer’s actions. Also, we don’t know what “desirable” means. From a vehicle maintenance standpoint, yes (true). From a profitability standpoint, no (false) ................................................................................

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D.

False. The survey was not limited to purchases of only one new car. Those who purchased two or more new cars are already involved as respondents .....................

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5. Grassmaster’s need for fast-drying paint

A.

We don’t know if adding Agent X after manufacture will have the same effect as adding it during manufacture ......................................................................................

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B.

True. There may be other factors that also affect drying time, but the statement is still true as it stands ..........................................................................................................

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C.

We don’t know if there are upper and lower limits to the amount of Agent X necessary for it to speed up drying time ......................................................................................

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D.

False. Room temperature (90°F) exerted a greater influence on drying time than did the presence of Agent X .............................................................................................

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Reminder: Count the total number of answers you got correct and enter this number in the box on the previous page. Then go on to Part Two.

 

PART TWO

There are no right or wrong answers to the exercise you went through. However, you should have come up with at least five advantages, five disadvantages, and two or three interesting points. These numbers should double when the list is expanded as a group activity. Here are our lists, with which you can compare your own.

A. Couples desiring marriage must first live together for three months:

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B. Youths would be required to serve one summer (10 weeks) in the army:

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C. Government issuance of a photo-signature plastic I.D. to all citizens:

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