Tipping Points

Our bias toward progress is easily seen in how we view “tipping points,” a bona fide scientific principle in physics, now adopted by social change activists. The original term means turning points or phase transitions, the last straw that breaks the camel’s back when the system suddenly shifts into a new state. Yet in popular lingo, the concept has been adopted as the way to create positive social change in the future. People I know have been working to create a percentage of people so that the scales will tip and suddenly we’ll find ourselves in a bright new future. How many people does it take to create the tip? Estimates have varied widely but start with speculation that as few as 10 percent of a population can create the sudden shift. Yet none of these estimates have been validated in experience.

The existence of tipping points is beyond dispute; at a certain point, criticality is reached and the system changes rapidly into a new state. But rather than remaining blindly optimistic about the statistical chances of positive future change, let’s notice what’s already tipped, those points of no return already passed, where the task now is to deal with the frightening consequences. What tipping points have already occurred?

  CO₂ emissions, parts per million above 400

  Warming oceans—Great Barrier Reef bleaching, ice-free Arctic

  Glaciers melting far faster than projected

  Rising sea levels—threat of melting Greenland ice sheet

  Atmospheric temperatures climbing steadily

  Clean water

  Population

  Sixth global mass extinction

  People’s anger and frustration