The Decline of Civilizations in Ten Generations

There are many great texts on the pattern of collapse. I chose to feature the work of Sir John Glubb because, in reading his work, I was continually stunned with his descriptions of the specific human behaviors our species always exhibits through the rise and fall of civilizations. I still am likely to gasp as I read his descriptions and share them with others.

Glubb studied thirteen empires in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe (where he had served as a military commander), from Assyria in 859 BCE to modern Britain in 1950. The pattern of the decline and fall of these superpowers was startlingly clear. It didn’t matter where they were or what technology they had or how they exercised power. They all declined in the same stages and it always took ten generations, about 250 years. The logic of this is very clear: Each generation matures in better socioeconomic circumstances created by the preceding generation; thus, there is always a march to increasing materialism. In every generation, youth will have higher expectations for comfort than their parents. Improved material conditions create attitudinal changes that insist on still more material changes; and, predictably, because of its wealth and erosion of morality, the civilization declines into decadence.

Here are Glubb’s six ages as delineated in The Fate of Empires. For more detail, see the appendix. I hope you’ll explore them—they are fascinating, troubling, and convincing. As you read these brief descriptions, keep in mind that they describe all human civilizations, even though they read like an accurate tale of our time. This was published in 1976.

1. The Age of Pioneers. Fearless, courageous, and without constraint, invaders surprise the dominant civilization with their attacks. Strong virtues of shared purpose, honor, and a strict moral code bind them.

2. The Age of Conquest. Using more sophisticated and disciplined military actions (learned from the civilization they are conquering), they take control. Often there is a strong religious imperative to their conquest—they are doing their God’s work.

3. The Age of Commerce. With a strong military to protect the frontiers, explorers embark on a search for wealth creation, seeking new enterprises as far as they can reach. Values of glory and honor give way to values of profit and personal wealth. The rich build palaces, railroads, hotels, communications networks, depending on the cultural context.

4. The Age of Affluence. Service ethics disappear and selfishness takes over. Education shifts from learning to obtaining qualifications for high-paying jobs. The young and ambitious seek wealth, not honor or service.

5. The Age of Intellect. The arts and knowledge flourish in the midst of decline. Intellectuals are prevalent and engage in incessant talking as a substitute for action. The belief takes hold that problems can be solved by mental cleverness rather than selfless service and courage. Natural sciences advance but do not prevent decline. Civil conflict increases even as the empire is under dire threat. Instead of banding together to preserve the nation, internal political factions seek to destroy one another.

6. The Age of Decadence. Wealth and power have led to petty and negative behaviors, including narcissism, consumerism, materialism, nihilism, fanaticism, and high levels of frivolity. A celebrity culture worships athletes, actors, and singers. The masses are distracted by entertainment and sporting events, abandon moral restraint, shirk duties, and insist on entitlements. The leaders believe they are impervious and will govern forever. This age also develops the welfare state as imperial leaders generously build universities and hospitals, give grants to university students, support the young and the poor, and extend citizenship to everyone. When they run out of money, all this benevolence disappears and these institutions shut their doors.