Let's Go Online Shopping

Let's start with an example that ties together a number of things we've talked about—online shopping. Over the last few years, we've seen the gradual shift away from visiting brick-and-mortar retail stores in favor of those that are just a few clicks away on the Internet or an app. Online shopping has been growing since the late 1990s, but it really exploded with smartphone and tablet proliferation that allow shopping anywhere, anytime. Data from the Census Bureau in Figure 8.2 reveals the steady growth in online sales since 2005, but it was the smartphone explosion that took hold in 2011 with Apple's iPhone and app store that enabled retail e-commerce sales to break through the 5 percent threshold. In fact, according to IBM Digital Analytics, mobile traffic accounted for 46.5 percent of all online traffic for Valentine's Day in 2015 versus 26.5 percent in 2014.

Who doesn't love sitting all nestled up on the couch ordering all sorts of fun things from Amazon, Macy's, or most other retailers through a smartphone or tablet, only to have your selections show up on your doorstep a few days later? Aside from that convenience, the ability to find deals, sales, and use digital coupons to get better pricing has had wide appeal, given the lack of income growth in the United States, the overall shrinkage of the U.S. labor force since 2000, and the growing number of people over age 65 years looking to stretch their dollars as far as they can.

As Mike Canevaro pointed out in our Cocktail Conversation in Chapter 6, watching today's children who will soon be tweens, this method of shopping is natural for them. As they grow older, we'll see continued growth in the number of people who are digital shoppers. According to a report from Walker Sands Communications, some 68 percent of U.S. consumers admit to shopping online at least once per month. As children who have grown up in and around online shopping become tweens and beyond, we will see them readily adopt the digital shopping lifestyle.

You or someone you know is probably one of that 68 percent. Think about those companies and businesses that you, your family, or friends are digitally shopping in comparison with those brick-and-mortar retailers that you are shopping at far less frequently, or not at all. For us, Amazon has replaced a number of stores that we used to visit—particularly Best Buy and Staples. When we see a shift like that, we next ask, “Who benefits? Who gets hurt in the process?” That naturally leads to, “Which companies are benefiting from this shift to digital shopping? Which companies are getting hurt in the process?”

Which companies benefit? Online retailers and those companies that have a strong online presence as well as the shipping companies that get those packages to you or the intended recipients. Examples include Alibaba, Amazon, Apple, Staples, United Parcel Service, and FedEx.

Which companies are getting hurt? Those that are seeing their in-store sales decline as consumers shift their purchasing habits online. Past examples include companies like Blockbuster Video and Circuit City, which ultimately shut their doors, while those like Barnes & Noble, Books-A-Million, Best Buy, and hhgregg are struggling.

You can probably add a few others to both of those lists. As you build that mental list, you're recognizing part of what we call the Connected Society Cocktail Investing trend.

What do we mean by Cocktail Thematic investing? A Cocktail Thematic is a market shift that shapes and impacts consumer behavior, forcing companies to make fundamental changes to their businesses to succeed. As you've noticed over the last several chapters, there are a number of factors that can shape and influence a Cocktail Thematic such as evolving economics, shifting demographics, changing psychographics, shifting political winds, regulatory mandates, disruptive technologies, and pain points. Furthermore, sometimes we'll see a vodka-like trend, clear and easy. Other times we'll see something that is a more bourbon-like trend, a little bit murky but once you get it, it packs a serious kick.

Think back to the online and digital shopping example and let's put the Cocktail Thematic pieces together. The initial disruptive technology (the Internet) that originally drove online shopping has been augmented by mobile computing, apps, and new forms of payments that are making digital shopping more commonplace. Those companies that have embraced the consumer's shift toward online shopping are prospering while those that have lagged or missed the shift have seen their businesses flounder.

Shifting Perspectives

One key point that we have to make concerns the evolution of online shopping from desktop to mobile thanks to smartphones and tablets. If you focused solely on digital shopping from the desktop, you'd miss the next iteration of digital shopping.

To hammer this point home, let's consider the difference between a movie and a photograph. There are many aspects between the two that are very similar—getting the right positioning of the subject or subjects, making sure the lighting is just right, ensuring the wardrobe is appropriate, adjusting for weather conditions, and, oftentimes, wrestling with multiple takes from multiple angles. If you've ever taken family photos or videoed an event, you know that to do either well takes a lot of hard work.

Despite those similarities, the two are very different. A photograph is a snapshot of a moment in time, preserved for eternity. A movie, on the other hand, is a collection of photographs over time. Think about it: Movies may be digital today, but originally, they were a spool of thousands or millions of photographs that told a story over time. That's the biggest difference between a photo and a movie—one is a snapshot of a moment in time, while the other is a story that unfolds over time, often with twists and turns along the way.

Similar to movies, Cocktail Thematics evolve over time as those drivers we talked about—evolving economics, shifting demographics, changing psychographics, new technologies, regulatory mandates, and more—change, evolve, or are disrupted.

This sounds rather different from the industry-focused research used by many financial firms that is focused on identifying the best in, say, retail, semiconductors, or manufacturing. Our beef with it is that while there are very smart and talented people following certain industries, they are forced to pick the best companies that fall within that specific industry and its purview. We see that as maybe only identifying the best company or two in a small pond. What you really want are those companies poised to ride the next wave of demand and innovation irrespective of Wall Street categories like retail, tech, banks, and semiconductors.

In order to see these drivers, you have to change your perspective. It's not that hard to do, but we've found an example that helps to illustrate the idea. Chris was helping one of his students with some math homework, and she was having problems with the following question:

She took one look at that question and was genuinely stumped…until Chris suggested she change her perspective on the question. To do that he simply rewrote the questions like this:

Once he did this, the student realized the vexing and convoluted question was really a simple addition and subtraction problem. Many times, a simple shift in perspective can reveal a whole world of possibilities.

Cocktail Thematics provide us with that different perspective, allowing us to collect data and then connect them into a cohesive view. Not all data points are useful or confirming, but as we've learned over the years, all we need is a few reinforcing data points to spot an emerging Cocktail Thematic or a different facet of an existing one. As more smartphones and shopping apps not only became available, but were actually being used, we could see the transformation in online shopping to mobile shopping. Chris will not only order things using the Amazon app, but when running low a few quick taps on the Nespresso app and great tasting coffee is soon on its way to him. During that mobile shopping expansion, we asked one of our favorite detective-like questions, “Which companies benefit and which ones are vulnerable?”

As a rule of thumb, we'll want those companies that sit at the intersection of one or more Cocktail Thematics. As you'll see when we roll up our sleeves in Chapter 10 and identify specific companies, we're going to want the ones that have meaningful operating profit exposure to each of the various Cocktail Thematics.

Multiple Cocktail Thematics

So what are some of the Cocktail Thematics that we've identified by canvasing the various shifting, changing, and evolving landscapes? What are the thematic tailwinds that are being shaped the world around us? Putting together the different puzzle pieces that we've introduced to you thus far in Cocktail Investing gives rise to the following nine Cocktail Thematics:

1. Connected Society. Talk about a perfect vodka-style Cocktail Thematic! This one you experience every day. As we've pieced together over the ensuing pages, the combination of always-on broadband networks and the growing plethora of connected devices is driving a sea change in consumer behavior. This has rippled across a number of industries—music, television, movies, news and publishing, mail, just to name a few—and has forever changed how individuals and businesses—pretty much all of us—consume content, communicate, collaborate, advertise, shop, bank, invest, share, and more.

   The key question for investors is which companies are leading this disruption? Which ones are benefiting from pain points associated with more and more data, not to mention the expansive growth in video traffic?

2. The rise of the new middle class. This refers to the improving socioeconomic landscape and better lifestyles in a number of emerging economies, like China and India. This is more of a margarita-style trend, deceptively subtle and tasty at first, but before you know it you've got something seriously powerful going on! As disposable incomes improve and quality of life rises, this new middle class spurs demand for goods and services that previously had not been there. This leads to consumers trading up with their purchasing dollars for more expensive clothing, cosmetics, food, transportation, indulging in affordable luxuries like an afternoon latte, and so on. Over the coming years, those economies are slated to experience significant population and disposable income growth, the combination of which is slated to drive a measurable pickup in global consumption as well as result in greater competition for scarce or limited resources. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, in 2009 the middle class included 1.8 billion people, but is expected to increase to 3.2 billion by 2020 and 4.9 billion by 2030, with the overwhelming portion of the new middle class coming from Asia Pacific.¹
3. The cash-strapped consumer. We also call this the decline of the existing middle class. This one is a bit of a whiskey-style Cocktail Thematic; a bit painful to start, but once you get the hang of it, you can appreciate the possibilities…or maybe more of a champagne taste on a beer budget. Either way, the concept behind the cash-strapped consumer reflects the economic backdrop in the United States and much of Europe since the 2008 financial crisis, which is looking more and more like the new normal. Lower levels of employment, increased savings rates, lack of available credit, and weak income growth have led to consumers saving where they can, trading down when possible, and seeking more value for each dollar that is actually spent. This affects not only what and when consumers will buy, but also where and how they buy. Will they shop at higher-end specialty stores or will they instead shop at discount stores and warehouse clubs? Are they buying private label and store brands or premium branded products? Will they dine out or eat in? Do they take a vacation or remain home for a “stay-cation”? Do they pay with cash, or with debit or credit cards?

   Most aspire to the finer things in life, such as an expensive car, nice clothes, a lavish home filled with all the electronic doodads, and more. Sadly, fewer are able to attain these in the current economy or the one we're likely to face in the coming years.

   One of the ways to bridge the gap between want and ability comes in the form of affordable luxury. Affordable luxuries are goods that can be considered luxury or premium goods according to the marketed image, but which cost less than truly luxury goods. As such, these goods are sold to a larger segment of the market—the mass affluent—usually defined by a household per-year income between US$100,000 and US$1,000,000.

   Luxuries can take on many forms and may often be a centerpiece around something larger, be it jewelry, electronics, clothing, and so on. Affordable luxury capitalizes on companies that have premium products at affordable prices. Examples of such affordable luxuries include brands such as Michael Kors, Kate Spade, and Coach rather than Gucci, Prada, or Louis Vuitton.

4. Scarce resources. You got a flavor for this Cocktail Thematic in Chapter 7 when we talked about the long-term pain point that is water. Think of this as that rare champagne of Cocktail Thematics. There is only so much water on the planet that is presently drinkable, and with a rising middle class (see Cocktail Thematic #2), it means more people vying for that limited resource.

   The scare resources Cocktail Thematic examines those goods and resources whose availability is increasingly less than the quantity desired. The rising global population and the awakening of third-world economies will continually increase the need for scarce resources such as oil, gas, water, and rare earth elements. That's the demand side of the equation, but we could also see disruptions on the supply side.

   Everyone but vegans experienced an example of such supply-side disruptions during 2013–2015 with the sharp rise in animal and seafood proteins such as beef, pork, chicken, and shrimp. That protein cost explosion reflected several factors including herd supply constraints due in part to drought conditions (there's that water thing again), rising demand from the emerging economies (rise of the new middle class), and the shift in other parts of the globe to lower carb, higher protein diets (those psychographics we talked about in Chapter 7).

5. New demand, new solutions. This is the fusion mixed drink of Cocktail Thematic investing, taking something tried and true and putting a new twist on it that makes you see the classic in a whole new light. The new demand side examines the industries and companies that are positioned to benefit or be hurt, depending on where the global economy is or is heading in terms of the economic cycle. Are the domestic, foreign, or world economies strengthening and expanding or slowing and contracting? Are we in the early or late stage of that expansion or contraction? The answers determine the industries and companies that warrant your focus.

   New solutions look for growth applications fueled by a combination of new products and services to fill replacement demand that had been addressed by new products, services, or technologies. Examples we all know include how CDs and DVDs replaced audio- and videocassettes, LCD TVs and monitors replaced cathode-ray-tube models, and Bluetooth and wifi technologies replaced a number of wires and cords in homes, offices, and other locations. A similar transformation is underway in the lighting market as filament bulbs are being replaced by energy-saving emissive semiconductors called light-emitting diodes, or LEDs.

   New solutions are more than just new technologies like those mentioned above. These solutions can include new materials as well as processes. One area we firmly believe has to change is the education system in the United States, and here's why: According to the most recent data published by the National Center for Education Statistics, based on the 2012 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), U.S. students ranked below average in math among the world's most-developed countries and were close to average in science and reading. More specifically, in mathematics, 29 nations and other jurisdictions outperformed the United States by a statistically significant margin, up from 23 nations in 2009, despite the fact that the United States spends more per student than any other developed nation, according to the Organization for Economic Development.² In science, 22 education systems scored above the U.S. average, up from 18 systems in 2009. We're spending more and yet getting a lot less.

   In our view, the current modality of education needs to be overhauled if the United States is to remain a competitive powerhouse and source of innovation. We believe that technology is poised to be a disruptive force in teaching, and we'd point to the massive open online courses (MOOCs): online programs from some of the best colleges and universities in the United States, such as Yale, Stanford, and others that can be accessed through Coursera and edX.org, and iTunes U on Apple's iTunes platform. We suspect we are in the early innings in this aspect of new solutions.

6. Safety and security. This is the hot-buttered rum on a cold winter's night of the Cocktail Thematics. The right to defend oneself and his or her property applies today just as it did more than 200 years ago. The threats that we are facing are changing, much like the ways we interact with people, data, and content are changing. As you saw in Chapter 7, cyberattacks are the latest form of warfare and corporate espionage.

   As people, companies, and countries must be increasingly on guard, behaviors need to shift from those of reactionary defense to always prepared and secure. Our safety and security Cocktail Thematic targets companies from corporate security solutions to firearms and home-security systems to cybersecurity and more.

7. Guilty pleasure. The peach piña colada you never admit to enjoying zeroes in on the little vices that we as consumers like or, for some of us, need to have from time to time, even though there may be a form of guilt associated with indulging. Chocolate, beer, wine (a favorite of ours), coffee (another one!), spirits, cigarettes, junk and fast food (Lenore couldn't live without In-N-Out burgers while Chris has been more of Five Guys burger guy, but he has warmed up to eating his burgers animal sytle), and gambling are typical products that are characterized by inelastic demand. That means consumers will want to buy them no matter what is happening with their pocketbook. As a result, the companies that make them tend to have good cash flow generation and are dividend payers.

   Guilty pleasures cut across several traditional Wall Street industry verticals, as the concept focuses on those companies that bring the kinds of products that consumers won't do without, regardless of the economic climate. With that in mind, it should come as little surprise that the guilty pleasure group of stocks held up well during the last two recessions and performed even better on a relative basis when compared to several stock market indices. A 2009 report by Merrill Lynch that examined the performance of tobacco, alcohol, and casino stocks during all of the recessions since 1970 found that while the broad S&P 500 fell by 1.5 percent on average, the guilty pleasure group of stocks rose on average 11 percent.³ During the great tech meltdown, the broad market fell 20 percent between June 2001 and June 2002, but during that time tobacco stocks gained 8 percent and gambling-related stocks nearly 20 percent.

   The inelastic nature for the products produced by these guilty pleasure companies has enabled them to weather price increases better than other products and services that are considered to be more of a commodity in nature. Perhaps the best example is in the tobacco industry. Consider that while the domestic tobacco business is in a decline as more people become aware of the health effects of smoking on their well-being and taxes are raised each year on cigarettes, the levels of price increases that cigarette makers generate more than offset the decline in consumption by customers. Despite the increasing concern over sugar as part of our diets, chocolate companies, like The Hershey Company, have been able to pass through price increases to offset any combination of higher raw material, fuel, utilities, and transportation costs.

8. Cashless consumption. This “cold beer after a hot day working in the yard” Cocktail Thematic is a little simple something that just makes the day better. As we alluded to in Chapter 6 in our Cocktail Conversation with Skyworks Solutions CEO David Aldrich and as pointed out by consulting firm McKinsey, tapping your smartphone or connected wearable device (Apple Watch or Samsung's latest smart watch) is one of the latest forms of payment.

   Over the last several decades, there has been a shift away from hard cash transactions by consumers to other forms of payment, principally checks, credit cards, debit cards, and, more recently, online payments. With a new set of technologies, including near-field communication (NFC), and some older ones, including bar-code scanning, we have entered the next phase in that shift away from cash consumption. From apps that allow you to pay at the register to others that allow you to book online reservations and get the check when you're done—all on your smartphone—to services like PayPal and Apple Pay, the “Swiss-Army” smartphone started to encroach on cash, credit, and debit payments in 2015.

   The first debit card was introduced in 1978, the first nationwide debit system was launched in 1984, but it wasn't until 1998 that debit card transactions outnumbered the use of checks around the world. Given the expectation for continued smartphone growth across the globe—wireless infrastructure company Ericsson forecasts there will be 6.4 billion smartphone subscriptions globally by the end of 2021, up from 3.4 billion in 2015⁴—we expect the adoption of mobile payments to grow significantly faster. This rapid growth will challenge existing payment companies as well as existing transaction infrastructure companies, particularly point-of-sale solution vendors. As you can rightly imagine, security and privacy will be key concerns.

   All of this offers opportunity, however, for chip companies that will be the backbone of enabling mobile payments on your connected devices. In order for your device to connect to the payment terminal and complete the transaction, the two have to be able to communicate, and that's where solutions such as near-field communication (NFC) and other semiconductor chips come into play.

   These new payment systems will also find ample opportunity in emerging markets, which will be able to leapfrog from the most primitive payment systems to the most advanced, without expending resources on the interim solutions developed nations have used over the years. Companies that see this opportunity and effectively take advantage of it will be able to greatly reward their investors.

9. Living longer lives. The fine aged wine of Cocktail Thematics. People all over the world are living longer. As investors, we're always on the lookout for opportunities characterized by an expanding addressable market, and the living longer lives Cocktail Thematic identifies and looks to invest in companies positioned to address the needs and demands of the expanding, older population. As with several of our Cocktail Thematics, there are a number of facets that include companies that participate in both a direct and indirect basis. From healthcare and investing to beauty products, medical aesthetic treatments, and nutrition to assisted living, dental services, and laboratories there are a number of traditional industry verticals that fit into living longer lives when viewed through the right lens.

These are just some of the Cocktail Thematics that you'll recognize as you open your eyes and look at the world as we do. As you get into the Cocktail Thematic mindset, we suggest you watch for signposts. These signposts act as either confirmation points or warning signs, depending on how things are progressing, because they identify the factors or tipping points that are driving a Cocktail Thematic. Often times, it means diving deep into the industries that are being impacted by the Cocktail Thematic to get a better understanding of the opportunities as well as the potential disruptions that could lie ahead.

Signposts

While today we have GPS navigation in many devices, this approach is much like the way many of us used to drive—by watching the road and checking a map for markers, or even asking for directions and looking for signposts along the way. Much like those driving experiences, as you see the markers and signposts, you have a growing confidence that you are on track. If you don't see those markers, after a while you're going to wonder where you are and how far you have gone off course.

Think of it this way: If you were to construct a map that sketches out directions for a friend, you would be sure to include the key sites they would see on their way, and these would let them know they were on course or signal them that a change in direction was nearing.

The same is true for Cocktail Thematic investing, except we have to develop our own markers and signposts that tell us whether a position is on track or if we are off course and need to get out of the investment. To the uninitiated, we admit this might sound a little daunting, but the reality is that it's far from impossible to do. All it takes is making sure you understand how the Cocktail Thematic is affecting an industry and what that means for the companies in that industry.

Here's an example: If you think the economy is picking up steam and that is a good thing for the shipping of goods (products, subassemblies, and components) from supplier to factory, factory to port, port to customer and their distribution facilities, and so on, you would be right. One industry you may want to invest in would be the trucking industry; after all, how else do those goods get to and fro? As you're reading up on the industry, you notice the average age of the heavy truck fleet (those 18 wheelers you see traveling down interstate) is rather high. Your next thought should be, “Wow, there is a real need to replace these trucks!”

Boom! Replacement demand.

Upon further reading, you learn that several truck manufacturers are starting to bring electric-powered trucks to market to replace diesel engine–powered ones (new demand, new solutions!). Some manufacturers also might be offering new driver collision avoidance technology or maybe even assisted driving (new demand, new solutions!).

After doing some preliminary research, you may realize there are several companies that manufacture medium- and heavy-duty trucks. You begin digesting all you can about the industry, how it works, who the key players are, who the competitors are, what key inputs go into building a heavy-duty truck, any pending regulatory mandates, and so on.

Along the way, you might read about several truck trends and data points—build rates, order rates, backlog levels, truck tonnage, and more—as well as sources for those data points. Some of those data points are easy to obtain, like monthly industrial production and purchasing managers data, as well as truck tonnage information, while others would require more diligence in collecting, such as monthly industry statistics for truck order and build levels.

Once you've identified these items, you have to watch the vector and velocity—what direction they are traveling and how fast. If the data are favorable, as when truck orders are rising faster than production while the economic data continues to improve, that's a good thing. If orders fall below build levels for a sustained period of time, it likely signals weaker production levels ahead. That's not a good sign, one that should have you thinking about trimming the position back or exiting altogether.

In the case of these new features, do they make the truck that much more expensive? Is there a regulatory mandate that will require them in new trucks past a certain date? At the same time, what are the trends in other input prices that could make a truck more expensive—steel, aluminum, plastics, rubber, engines, transmissions? What about new solutions that could make operating a truck less expensive? Those would make owners of those new solutions more competitive.

By building this list of items to watch—signposts, as we call them—you can keep tabs on the industry in a far easier fashion because you know what you're watching for. Here's the best part: Like any muscle that you exercise, the more you do this, the stronger your aptitude will become. Want some more good news? The more you do this, the more pitfalls you'll avoid, because your signposts will help keep you on course.

Now that's one example, but there are dozens, if not hundreds, of others out there. From our vantage point, the only thing better than one Cocktail Thematic is when two or more intersect, which is a bit like mixing various potent liquors together. In the end you have a Long Island iced tea, which we can both attest goes down deliciously, but oh, how it packs a surprising wallop! The more Cocktail Thematics you have working together, the stronger the mix that, as we've seen, can happen with a Long Island iced tea, which will change the behavior of consumers and businesses alike, which will force businesses to respond or see customers vote with their hands, feet, and wallets by going elsewhere.

One simple example (and you may have already thought of it) is found at the intersection of Always On, Always Connected + New Demand, New Solutions + Safety and Security:

Because of always on, always connected, we know consumers are increasingly turning to their smartphones and tablets for new ways to do things—shop, communicate, transact, work, and so on.

New demand, new solutions has seen the deployment of online banking and investing at both the desktop and increasingly smartphones and tablets.

One focus in safety and security is cybersecurity. As we execute more banking and investing either online or on mobile connected devices, commercial banks, investment banks, and brokerage companies will need to improve their cybersecurity offering to protect customers and their accounts, as well as the firms' own threat-detection capabilities and defenses.

Here's another Cocktail Thematic intersection. As you've probably deduced by now, water availability is one of the long-term scarce resource Cocktail Thematics that we've identified. The pain point of having sufficient fresh water available to businesses, farmers, and consumers is prompting the development of new solutions (new demand, new solutions), including desalination plants.

In 2015, after three years of drought conditions, California pushed seawater desalination into the spotlight as San Diego County, Santa Barbara, and other cities moved ahead with treatment plants that would turn the Pacific Ocean into a source of drinking water. Desalination has emerged as a newly promising technology in California in the face of a record dry spell that forced tough new conservation measures, depleted reservoirs, and raised the costs of importing fresh water from elsewhere.

As we like to say, Cocktail Thematics are happening all around you in your everyday life, and now that you've learned how to identify them, you'll start to realize the impact they are having, especially as you ask our two favorite questions—Who benefits, and who is vulnerable? It is much like your muscles—the more you use them, the stronger they become!

Cocktail Investing Bottom Line

In this chapter, we've tied together a number of puzzle pieces to help you see the world around you and recognize the various tailwinds that are changing the way we interact with the world around us. One of the really great aspects of Cocktail Investing is we can identify the companies that we might want to invest in while avoiding the potential pitfalls that are the ones being left behind. In the next chapter, we're going to look at the different types of securities you can choose from as you fine-tune your investment selection. Chapter 9 will have you looking at stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds, and other securities in a new light.

• With Cocktail Thematic Investing, you're connecting economic, demographic, psychographic, technology, and regulatory dots to identify Cocktail Thematics that are taking place in and around your day-to-day life.
• A Cocktail Thematic is a market shift that shapes and impacts consumer behavior, forcing companies to make fundamental changes to succeed.
• Cocktail Thematics are not set in stone, but rather, evolve as do the underlying economic, demographic, psychographic, technology, and regulatory mandates.
• The more Cocktail Thematics intersect, the more powerful and sustainable the resulting punch.
• Asking, “Which industries and companies benefit?” as well as, “Which industries and companies are vulnerable?” will identify the companies you want to invest in and those you want to avoid.