Chapter 26
Bounded Rationalities, Routines, and Practical as well as Theoretical Blindness: On the Discrepancy Between Markets and Corporations

Laurent Bibard

Management Department, ESSEC Business School, Cergy Pontoise, France

26.1 Introduction: Expecting the Unexpected

The 2008 subprime crisis abruptly awakened people as well as specialists about the dangers and vulnerability of the financial market. People had forgotten about the difference between risk and uncertainty as the economist Knight understood it. Knight posits that whereas risk may always be evaluated, even though most often only on the basis of probabilities, uncertainty cannot be evaluated and measured (Knight, 1921). Actually, nowadays, uncertain situations have become normal, and managing (in) the unexpected has become quite ordinary. Indeed, people need to learn again how to manage the unexpected (Weick and Sutcliffe, 2007). The real truth is nevertheless that the economic and financial world has never been only a risky world but always an uncertain one. The 2008 financial crisis surprise is not due to something that might have changed suddenly in the daily business life; on the other hand, people were quite naïve about it. The problem is in the human belief that the world can be totally measured, evaluated, and predicted. Such a belief favors potential crises, such as the 2008 one.

In his book Risk, uncertainty, and profit, Knight (1921) distinguishes between risk and uncertainty. Risk characterizes situations where the probability of every future event can be computed with a theoretical model or estimated with data. Uncertainty applies to situations where such a probability cannot be computed or estimated. Many chapters in this handbook (see Fraga Alves and Neves, 2017) tend to explain that the probability of extreme events in finance, such as stock market crashes, can be computed with extreme value theory, a statistical theory that is interested in the extremes of a random process (prices or returns of financial assets). As pointed out by Longin (1993) in his thesis and still discussed many years later during the First International Conference Extreme Events in Finance held in December 2014 at Royaumont Abbey (a peaceful place to discuss extreme events), such results seem to be at odds with Knight's view of risk and uncertainty. On one hand, extreme events in finance are associated with periods of extreme uncertainty, but, on the other, extreme value theory tells us that the statistical distribution of extreme returns is precisely known (even though we don't know the distribution of daily returns).

Some of the above “naïveté” has another kind of consequence. Introducing contradictory demands in corporations, it separates people from each other. As a matter of fact, shareholders wait for maximum profit-making on the basis of corporations' activities, and corporations are supposed to deliver the best, whatever happens. In doing so, corporations tend to become unilaterally short-term-oriented, whereas they should be medium- if not long-term-oriented if they are to be sustainable. They should invest, innovate, and adapt to a continuously changing if not chaotic environment.

It is possible to understand the tension between the short term and the long term as a tension related to power issues, and this is actually the case. But this is the case only to a certain extent. The potential divergence between shareholders' interests and those of companies depends on bounded rationalities, whose effects oppose each other. To deepen the understanding of the divergence between financial interests and economic and social ones, it is necessary to understand the discrepancy between a certain intellectual “naïveté,” which conditions practices and reality.

We first make a bit clear the divergence between the financial and the economic and social spheres, and then we trace it back to some of its origins, particularly to a philosophical one related to the European Renaissance humanism. We finally briefly envisage some possible methods to get rid of the difficulty.

26.2 Markets and Corporations: A Structural and Self-Disruptive Divergence of Interests

Any organization, including networks and corporations, may be understood as not only involving but also being structured by a series of tensions, such as the tension between task division versus coordination, individuals versus collective interests, change versus stability, and so on. One of the most active tensions nowadays is the tension between the short and the long term. This tension may be described the following way:

On the short term, people are demanded to deliver the best they can, immediately, continuously, and on a visible way. People are never asked to deliver medium, later on, from time to time, and on a hidden way. No doubt, the most striking contemporaneous characteristic of the short term is nowadays related to visibility. Any sector, institution, corporation, organization, or structure is evaluated, rated, measured on the basis of its visible efficiency. Rating and ranking organizations, institutions, and even countries based on expectations about what they are supposed to deliver has become the norm and a normative behavior that conditions people's understanding of reality.

In the long term, expecting measurable and, thus, visible returns on investment is not as such possible. This is because nobody can really know what will happen in the long term. Particularly when remote, the future is not only risky but also undoubtedly uncertain and unpredictable – even on the basis of probabilities (cf Knight, above). According to Keynes, the only certainty people may claim about the long term is that they will die (Keynes, 1923).

This means that, in the long term, companies, organizations, and so on, cannot count on their knowledge, know-how, and skills to solve problems they still do not and cannot know. In the long term, organizations need to learn how to learn about their environment and to adapt to it. They need to prioritize learning processes, creativity, flexibility, and innovation versus immediately and constantly delivering the best, in a visible way.

Why is there a contradiction between delivering the best immediately, constantly, and on visible way on one hand, and adapting to a changing environment, innovating, and being creative on the other?

The most fundamental reason is that being innovative and creative involves uncertainty beyond usual risks. When people innovate, they do not yet know what they will actually produce, create, or invent. They consequently cannot evaluate the efficiency of their invention, creation, or innovation. They will know about it only afterward. And in the meantime, they will need to try and accept the risk of errors and search logic. When innovating, creating, or inventing, you can never rigorously evaluate in advance the return that you will get on the investment. You may wish such a return on investment, you may be scared about it, you may try to evaluate the probability of success of your project, but you can never be sure that it will work and produce exactly what you expect. Creating, innovating, and inventing are thus not compatible with short-term expectations. In the short term, particularly in the context of the capitalist system, people and par excellence shareholders wait for visible, immediate, constant – if not constantly increasing – and maximum profit and return on investment. They will spontaneously not tolerate errors, waste time, postponed benefit, and so on and so forth.

Added to the fact that such expectations are quite naïve, it is necessary to make clear how contradictory they are. No organization may survive on the medium and long term without adapting a minimum to its environment – for example, without innovating, inventing, creating, showing flexibility, and so on. Long- if not medium-term organizational sustainability depends on investments for the future without any kind of guarantee they will produce the expected return, whereas short-term expectations demand that organizations, institutions, and so on, deliver immediately, on the basis of previous taken-for-granted knowledge, know how, skills, and routines.

Complying with the short-term expectations of people and shareholders has the consequence that people will always privilege operations, actions, skills, know-how, and routines they already know. In other words, they will progressively become unilaterally short–term-oriented and forget about the future. They will endanger the sustainability of organizations and institutions, and potentially the shareholders' profits. This is what happened during the subprime crisis, as well as, for instance, to Enron.

26.3 Making A Step Back From A Dream: On People Expectations

“The social responsibility of business is to increase its profit.” The difficulty we are tackling may be understood on the basis of this famous Milton Friedman's statement (Friedman, 1970). A more precise quotation is as follows: “There is one and only one social responsibility of business – to use it resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.”

Friedman was of course right when stating that companies should increase their profit, because, added to the fact that profit is a relevant measure for companies' performance, this is a condition for their capacity to invest and to hire people. Making and increasing profit enables business to help society by increasing the general growth and welfare. But, on the other hand, everybody knows and admits that stating so Milton Friedman was wrong. When people make profit and are convinced that making profit suffices to help others, they are wrong. This is because making profit for the sake of making profit tends to separate people from each other and to provoke situations close to the situation prior to the subprime one.

Let us, nevertheless, not limit our caution against the Friedman statement to a moral argument. The reasons why Friedman was wrong are much more complex and subtle than the moral ones. These reasons are due to a theoretical focus on rationality first, and then to the way Milton Friedman, as a famous and respected scholar, stated his argument.

26.3.1 On Pure and Perfect Rationality

Milton Friedman's statement must be traced back to its most fundamental ground, which is the assumption that individuals behave rationally. Behaving rationally means, for economists, that when making decisions, people evaluate thoroughly the situation, depending, for instance, on what they know about the product they want to buy. They are supposed to be able to rank without ambiguity their possible choices, and consequently to make the best choice. Such a description is ultimately grounded on the hypothesis that people are purely and perfectly rational. Being purely and perfectly rational amount to knowing everything about a product or about any economic situation and, as a consequence, being able to systematically make the best choice of any considered transaction, by ranking systematically the possible choices and automatically choosing the best – for example, the best quality and the lowest price.

The hypothesis of “pure and perfect” rationality amounts to assuming that people know everything about any situation, and that they consequently can do everything. In other words, the dream is that people be omnipotent due to being omniscient – the dream is that people are like God: omnipotence and omniscience being the two theological characteristics of the Judeo-Christian god. It is an assumption based on total transparency and consequently on the total control of humans over their situations. Such a dream of total transparency and control is of course a mere dream. It is not realistic. People are actually always embedded in situations they do not know perfectly, because things are actually always somewhat dark. In other words, people's rationality is not “pure and perfect,” to the contrary. It is bounded (March and Simon, 1993). And rationality being such bounded makes that organizations' rationality is also rooted on darkness and tacit skills and routines contrary to transparency, under control, and totally clear operations (Nelson and Winter, 1982).

Let us deepen the understanding of the issues related to the assumption of perfect and pure rationality.

Such an assumption is to be traced back to its very origin, which rests on the Renaissance humanism. Without arguing in detail, we may say that the European humanism consisted on a claim against “nature” as well as against the Judeo-Christian God. The core of the humanist intention may be described as the intention to take power over nature for the sake of humanity. Taking power over nature is to be done to the detriment of the Judeo-Christian God (Bibard, 2005). One of the most important consequences of humanism was that humans incorporated the dream as a reality. Among many, the mere efficiency of the modern sciences and technologies, which resulted from the humanist decision, to become, as the French philosopher Descartes (2005) states “masters and possessors of nature” was convincing enough to make people progressively develop on the belief that humans had reached the goal: the goal being that the whole world would be put under human control. Such a dream was radically criticized by some of the most famous philosophers of the twentieth century (see, e.g., Heidegger on technology, Heidegger, 1982). Nobody nowadays, indeed, thinks seriously that everything may be put under human control. The recent tsunamis – not only the Fukushima one, but some human tsunamis, such as the Arab spring, or precisely such as the subprime crisis one – show that humans do not control reality as they dream of. This is true theoretically. But observing humans and organizations in practice shows that people behave as if a total control of humans over their environment was possible, true, and the right way to operate reality. In other words, in practice, humans are quite naïve about their power on reality.

Before deepening the clarification of some huge consequences of such naïveté, it is necessary to remind ourselves a second origin of the economic notion of “pure and perfect rationality.” This rests on the birth of modern political science. Modern political science was created by some philosophers during the Renaissance period, but it was made particularly clear by the philosopher Thomas Hobbes. Hobbes was the first in defining humans not as “political animals” – for example, as collective beings – but as free, equal-to-each-other, and rational individuals (Hobbes, 1968). With Hobbes, the new anthropology was born, created against the ancient anthropology coming from the Aristotelian understanding of humans.

The specificity of Hobbes's understanding of reality is that it became a self-realizing prophecy. Hobbes defined humans as free, equal-to-each-other, and rational individuals in order to ground a solid understanding of politics, able to help the governments' sustainability. But because of the way his thought was understood by his heirs, and particularly by the liberal philosopher John Locke (see Locke, 1980), the understanding of humans as being (selfish) free, equal-to-each-other, and rational individuals became the taken-for-granted anthropology. This means that people unconsciously believe that they are actually and legitimately (selfish) free, equal-to-each-other, and rational individuals.

It is now time to come back to our previous statement.

People's rationality is not “pure and perfect,” but on the contrary, radically bounded. And people's rationality is bounded because of the organizations' and more generally life's routines. People need routines to do what they do in their daily lives. Otherwise, they cannot even live (Nelson and Winter, 1982; Polanyi, 2001). People's rationality being bounded means that people do not understand the whole as they should, in order to properly evaluate the consequences of their actions. People act and behave on the basis of their practices, which bound their understanding of reality. But they simultaneously as of now believe that they are endowed with “pure and perfect” rationality.

This is indeed the true root of the liberal understanding of reality. Liberal and neoliberal economists (Smith, Hayek, Friedman, and others) argue that the problems of economic life are not due to people's selfishness and individualistic behavior but to the institutional interferences with and into the markets. Should states and, generally speaking, institutions make room for individual initiatives and interactions, markets would by themselves operate the best. The famous Adam Smith's invisible hand would operate as a perfect regulation of the economic life.

Ironically enough, this understanding of reality is quite imperfect. It presupposes that a theoretical norm is (already) indeed real, which is not true. The problem is that such an understanding becomes the norm. In other words, the liberal understanding of reality became the normative or conventional taken-for-granted understanding of reality. And at the end of the day, people who do not think and question theoretically the world take for granted what they are told, without examining and taking any distance with what they are told.

What are they sometimes told? They are told that they are rational and that making profit ort increasing their profit suffices for them to comply with their social responsibility. “Be selfish, you will thus support society.” Why should people doubt such a statement, particularly when it is written by such an important scholar as the Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman? Here is the real problem of the Milton Friedman's statement: mixing reality and norms, and making public on the basis of this confusion a statement that people would just make theirs without further questions. Such a statement plays a real role in society and would certainly deserve more prudence for a scholar such as Friedman (see Strauss, 1952).

The consequences of such an understanding of reality, and of stating that a norm is indeed “already” real – the normative understanding of humans as “already” free, equal, and rational individuals – is the introduction of a hidden, invisible, and deeply deleterious complexity in reality. Because people behave as if they were purely and perfectly rational, free, and equal to each other, when this is absolutely not the case, they barely increase the spontaneous complexity of reality. People unconsciously believe that they are rational and that they have their environment under control – but they fight on this very basis against each other to impose their understandings of reality, which are actually bounded. Here we are with the deleterious naïveté we previously alluded to. This naïveté about themselves makes that people actually ignore a huge amount of aspects of reality, and that they do not know that they do not know about this naïveté. Indeed, ignorance is quite often, if not always, self-ignorance.

The way we put the issue may sound exaggerated. It is not. The High Reliability Organizations sociological studies (with scholars such as Karl Weick, Kathleen Sutcliffe, Charles Perrow) show that one of the main origins of catastrophes and organizational problems is that people do not know that they do not know many aspects of their environment including themselves. In other words, should people know about their structural ignorance, about themselves, and about their environment, they would be much more ready to learn and behave in an efficient way to help organizations and networks, if not society, to do their jobs the right way (see, e.g., the thorough analysis of the Bhopal case by Karl Weick for instance; Weick 1988, 2010). Because daily organizational life separates people, embedding them in bounded routines and skills, without being aware of it, people tend structurally to ignore their continuously changing environment and need to continuously relearn about it. But contrary to what they should know, due to the “control culture” we described above, they most often unconsciously believe that they know everything they should know and continue to behave out of date.

This happens when difficulties if not crises like the subprime one start looming ahead. It suffices to make even more clear that people do not want to imagine that they ignore their environment, because such an ignorance would endanger their capacities to comply with their partners' expectations – including the shareholders' – to make see how crises are prepared by the short-term and long-term tension described above. Accepting uncertainty, ignorance as a matter of fact, and continuously learning or being prepared to learn on such a basis would mean behaving on the basis of a structurally innovative, creative, and flexible attitude, which would favor real learning processes, through unlearning (skills, routines, know-how) and relearning.

Being short-term-oriented amounts to repeating already known procedures, operations, skills, and routines, on the basis of a radical compliance with others' expectations, and becoming more and more blind to oneself and the environment. Global crises or “tsunamis” are rooted on aggregated very local and apparently insignificant behaviors and attitudes.

Shareholders' expectations concerning the corporations' profitability are not automatically rooted on selfish and ill-intentioned behavior – far from it. But they certainly are the most often naïve. Should shareholders understand clearly their own best interest, they would support companies that do not systematically maximize their profit on the unique basis of the short term.

To finish this brief presentation of the reasons why there is a tension between financial markets and corporations, let us present some solutions to the contradictory dynamics between the short- and the medium- if not the long-term attitudes.

26.4 How to Disentangle People From A Unilateral Short-Term Orientation?

Answers to this question are minimum two. They are both grounded on organizational theory and on political philosophy.

26.4.1 An Organizational Theory Perspective

The high-reliability organization trend makes clear that organizations that confront crises in contexts of complexity and uncertainty (at least, the unexpected) should favor the following:

  1. – There should be awareness related to a lucid understanding that ignorance constantly looms ahead in organizations – knowing that people ignore a huge amount of data related to their own job, due to many interactions with others is to be understood as a competence: the capacity to learn continuously about what people are doing on the basis of their daily professional lives.
  2. – Related to such a capacity, the capacity to doubt information, is consequently to question situations when they look abnormal. Such a capacity demands that people keep some distance from the daily tasks and operations. A while should be previewed on a regular basis to question the taken-for-granted activity.
  3. – An example of this capacity to doubt consists in debriefing activities, whatever happens, good or bad. Making clear in teams why an operation went the right way or failed is deeply instructive for the future operations, and makes people used to take a step back from what they spontaneously consider as evident. Let us make clear that questioning and doubting are an aspect of people's daily work. Organizational life is much more ambivalent: because organizations need routines and taken-for-granted individual and collective skills. The method can consequently never consist in a unilateral choice for doubt or for taken-for-granted competences. Rather, it consists in balancing the dynamics between routines and distance, say between the short term and the long term. Managing organizations requires a kind of wisdom (Weick, 2001);
  4. – Last but not least, organizations should favor that people speak their minds. Too often, due to short-term constraints and demands, the managerial culture provokes silence because people are scared of sanctions. The more people may feel able to trust their bosses and talk to them when doubting a process or an operation, and even when committing errors, the best it is for the organizational internal as well as external communication. When errors are made, it is crucial that people feel able to talk about – for example, that they will not be systematically sanctioned. In that case, they will feel to be able to tell the truth, and look for ways to prevent the same error in the future. Otherwise, they will keep silent and try to hide problems. In the first case, the organization has a chance to become genuinely a learning one. In the latter, it will sooner or later have problems if not break.

The above recommendations (Weick and Sutcliffe, 2007) concern the management of the unexpected. As a consequence, they concern par excellence the management of financial markets. Financial markets are not organizations, they are rather networks. Networks are much less vulnerable to constitutive ignorance as organizations are. But bounded rationality not only concerns people within organizations. It concerns everybody. And one may state that what happened, for instance, to the famous French trader Jérôme Kerviel “playing” with data on his computer screen may happen to anybody too much embedded in her/his job.

Anyway, another perspective should be of some help for people to get used to keeeping some distance with their jobs and short-term objectives and projects – including maximizing their profits. This second perspective depends on an understanding of some political philosophy issues.

26.4.2 A Political Philosophy Perspective

When tracing back the origin of Milton Friedman's statement on business social responsibility, we alluded to the theoretical revolution made by Thomas Hobbes. According to him, political philosophy was grounded on an Aristotelian understanding of politics, which takes for granted that political life is spontaneous to humans. As stated above, for Aristotle, humans are but “political animals” (Aristotle, 1995). Human lives are grounded on collective life, which starts with the family life. The radical difference between the ancient (e.g., Aristotelian) understanding of politics and the modern one (e.g., the Hobbes one) rests in considering or not considering humans as spontaneous “political” or living in collective structures.

By inaugurating the new anthropology, which will become the economic one, or by defining humans as free, equal to each other, and rational individuals, Hobbes makes room to the radical possibility of considering each human as equal to all the others. In other words, he potentially makes possible the abolition of slavery, the gender studies, and so on. This is the indomitably positive aspect of the modern understanding of politics. But on the other hand, this understanding potentially reduces humans to selfish and indifferent to the common good individuals, which is the dark side of modernity.

Taking distance with the short term amounts to taking distance with one's own interests, toward a consideration of the common good as well. A medium- and long-term attitude amounts to favoring open-mindedness and the capacity to balance one's own interests with the collective ones. In other words, a unilateral short-term attitude is structurally selfish, whereas a medium- or long-term one is collective and common-good-orientated. None of these perspectives is able to bring a solution by itself to the tension between the short term and long term, or between financial markets and corporations. Both are necessary. But a balance between short-term and long-term perspectives is necessary. In managerial terms, this means that neither the stakeholders theory nor the shareholders theory is true. They are true together.

Understanding how such knowledge may be of some help practically demands understanding a bit more on how the ancient political philosophy and the modern political science complete each other on the very basis of their initial difference if not contradiction. We discuss this issue in our book Sexuality and Globalization, An Introduction to a Phenomenology of Sexuality (Bibard, 2014).

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