Monte Carlo methods

Using Monte Carlo (MC) methods, we will compute the value functions first and determine the optimal policies. In this method, we do not assume complete knowledge of the environment. MC require only experience, which consists of sample sequences of states, actions, and rewards from actual or simulated interactions with the environment. Learning from actual experiences is striking because it requires no prior knowledge of the environment's dynamics, but still attains optimal behavior. This is very similar to how humans or animals learn from actual experience rather than any mathematical model. Surprisingly, in many cases, it is easy to generate experience sampled according to the desired probability distributions, but infeasible to obtain the distributions in explicit form.

Monte Carlo methods solve the reinforcement learning problem based on averaging the sample returns over each episode. This means that we assume experience is divided into episodes, and that all episodes eventually terminate, no matter what actions are selected. Values are estimated and policies are changed only after the completion of each episode. MC methods are incremental in an episode-by-episode sense, but not in a step-by-step (which is an online learning, and which we will cover the same in Temporal Difference learning section) sense.

Monte Carlo methods sample and average returns for each state-action pair over the episode. However, within the same episode, the return after taking an action in one stage depends on the actions taken in later states. Because all the action selections are undergoing learning, the problem becomes non-stationary from the point of view of the earlier state. In order to handle this non-stationarity, we adapt the idea of policy iteration from dynamic programming, in which, first, we compute the value function for a fixed arbitrary policy; and, later, we improve the policy.

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