Chapter 5
1. Chaim Braun and Christopher F. Chyba, ‘Proliferation Rings: New Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,’International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2, Fall 2004, pp. 5–49.
2. Lawrence Scheinman, ‘Disarmament: Have the Five Nuclear Powers Done Enough?’, Arms Control Today, January/February 2005. Available at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_01-02/Scheinman.asp?print
3. United Nations, ‘A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility’, Report of the Secretary General ’s High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, 2 December 2004. http://www.un.org/secureworld/report2.pdf
4. Mohammad ElBaradei,. ‘Al-Qaeda also Wants the Bomb’, Transcript of the interview by Der Spiegel, Translated by Cristopher Sultan, 21 February 2005, http://www.iaea.org
5. ‘The IAEA “high” projection, which includes additional scenarios for new nuclear plant construction, would envision nuclear power generating 70 per cent more electricity in 2030 than at present.’ ElBaradei, Mohammad, 2004. ‘Nuclear Power: A Look at the Future’, International Conference on Fifty Years of Nuclear Power: The Next Fifty Years, Moscow, Russia, June 27.
6. Statement by Mr T.P. Seetharam, Ministe; Permanent Mission of India to the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva, at United Nations Disarmament Commission, New York, 1 April 2003.Statement by Mr T.P. Seetharam, Ministe; Permanent Mission of India to the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva, at United Nations Disarmament Commission, New York, 1 April 2003.
7. Because the literature on this debate is now quite extensive, it is difficult to include all the studies in one endnote. Two specific issues of Security Studies include wide range of scholarly views on the subject Security Studies,Vol. 4, No.3, 1995; and, Security Studies,Vol. 4, No.4, 1995. The most commonly reviewed article on non-proliferation debate can be cited is Peter R. Lavoy, ‘The Strategic Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation’, Security Studies,Vol. 4, No.4, Summer 1995, pp. 695–753.
8. Shyam Saran, The India–US Joint Statement of July 18, 2005—A Year Later, Address by Foreign Secretary, Government of India at India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, 14 July 2006.
9. Statement by Mr. T.P. Seetharam, Minister, Permanent Mission of India to the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva, at United Nations Disarmament Commission, New York, 1 April 2003. http://www.un.int/india/ind698.pdf
10. Government of India, 2004, Annual Report 2003–2004, New Delhi: Ministry of External Affairs.
11. State Council of the People’s Republic of China, 2006. ‘China’s National Defence in 2006, Information Office of the State Council. Released on 29 December. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-12/29/content_5547029.htm
12. Vinay Shankm;. ‘A Nuclear Debate Less Obscure’, Indian Express, 5 January 2006, http://www.indianexpress.com/story/20101.html
13. Because the literature on this debate is now quite extensive, it is difficult to include all the studies here in one note. Two particular issues of Security Studies include wide range of scholarly views on the subject: Security Studies, Vol. 4, No. 3, 1995; and, Security Studies,Vol. 4, No. 4, 1995. The most commonly reviewed article on nonproliferation debate can be cited as of Peter R. Lavoy, ‘The Strategic Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation’, Security Studies,Vol. 4, No.4, Summer 1995, pp. 695-753.
14. Aver Cohen and Benjamin Frankel, ‘Opaque Nuclear Proliferation’, quoted in Devin T. Hagerty, ‘The Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons from South Asia’, London: MIT Press, 1998, p. 3.
15. P.R. Chari, ‘Nuclear Stability in Southern Asia: An Indian Perspective’, in P.R Chari, Sonika Gupta and Arpit Rajan (eds), Nuclear Stability in Southern Asia, New Delhi: Manohar, 2004, p. 130.
16. Ashley J. Tellis, ‘N uclear Stability in Southern Asia’, in P.R Chari, Sonika Gupta and Arpit Rajan (eds), Nuclear Stability in Southern Asia, p. 19.
17. Dawn, ‘Hatf VI Missile Test-fired’, 30 April2006. Available at http://www.dawn.com/2006/04/30/top2.htm
18. Graham Allison, Chapter 5 in Nuclear Terrorism: the Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, New York: Times Book, Henry Holt and Co., 2004, p. 231 cites http://www.ceip.org/www.ceip.org/foles/pdf/Deadly_Arsenals_Chap12.pdf; http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/nukenotes/jfo2nukenote.htmal;and www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2001/south_asia.pdf
19. David Albright and Kimberly Kramer, ‘Stockpiles Still Growing’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November-December 2004, p. 16; http://www.isis-online.org/global_stocks/bulletin_albright_kramer.pdf
20. Dawn,2006. ‘“Arms for Peace and Deterrence”—Musharraf Inaugurates Defence Expo’, 21 November, http://www.dawn.com/2006/11/21/topl.htm ‘India–US Joint Statement’, Washington DC, 18 July 2005. Available at http:// www.indianembassy.org/press_release/2005/July/21.htm
21. Nasir Jamal, ‘Musharraf Rules out Pakistan Link to Blasts Abroad: AI Qaeda Dismantled’, Dawn, 26 July 2005, http://www.dawn.com/2005/07/26/top1.htm
22. Landau Network-Centro Volta, ‘Nuclear Safety, Nuclear Stability and Nuclear Strategy in Pakistan’, Concise Report of a Visit by Landau Network, Como, Italy, Draft version, 14 January 2002, http://lxmi.mi.infn.it/~landnet/Doc/pakistan.pdf
23. Lee Feinstein, ‘Avoiding Another Close Call in South Asia’, Arms Control Today, July August 2002, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_07-08/feinsteinjul_aug02.asp
24. US Government, Proliferation and Response, Department of Defense, Report, Pakistan section, January 2001, http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/news01
25. David Albright, ‘Securing Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Complex’, in Michael Kraig and James Henderson (eds), ‘US Strategies for Regional Security’, Report, Airlie Conference Center, Warrenton, 25–27 October 2002, p. 147.
Replying to the question of an interviewer—‘Can you say, are the nuclear weapons ready to go as they are, or are they, as I have heard, in different parts, have to be assembled first?—Musharraf said: ‘Yes, you are right. They are not mated [inaudible]. And there is geographical…they are geographically apart. They cannot be … they are not ready to be fired. So really, it’s not the concept that NATO has been having [inaudible] United States system, where your finger has to be on a button and then finally can be pushed. That’s not the condition there’. ‘Walking a Political Tightrope’, Transcript of Nightline Interview, ABC News,10 November 2002.
26. Zawar Haider Abidi, Threat Reduction in South Asia, Henry L. Stimson Center, 25 November 2003.
27. Bharat Kamad, Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security, New Delhi: Macmillan India Limited, 2002, p. 503.
28. ‘Pak UN Envoy Threatens Nuclear Strike’, The Times of India, 31 May 2002.
29. Feroz Hassan Khan, ‘Challenges to Nuclear Stability in South Asia’, The Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 10, No. 1, Spring 2003, p. 63. Brigadier General Khan retired from Pakistan Army in 2003, has served as Director of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs in the Strategic Plans Division, Pakistan; Agha Shahi also has advocated for maintaining ambiguity (at the international seminar held in Islamabad, 21–22 February 2000, on ‘Command and Control of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia’, organized by Islamabad Council of World Affairs (ICWA) and Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS).
30. See Asad Durrani, ‘Doctrinal Double Speak’, Pugwash Meeting No. 28, 11–12 March 2003, Lahore. In this paper Lt Gen. Durrani has stated that as part of the operational planning Pakistan has not identified the core issues of interests, which if threatened, could trigger a nuclear retort. He believes that it serves a psychological end, other than a potent conventional deterrence to keep the threshold high.
31. Landau Network-Centro Volta, ‘Nuclear Safety, Nuclear Stability and Nuclear Strategy in Pakistan’, Concise Report of a Visit by Landau Network, Como, Italy, Draft version, 14 January 2002. Available at http://lxmi.mi.infn.it/~landnet/Doc/pakistan.pdf
32. Agha Shahi, Zulfiquar Ali Khan and Abdul Sattar, ‘Securing Nuclear Peace’, The News, 5 October 1999.
33. The speaker, Agha Shahi, was addressing a two-day international seminar jointly organized by the Islamabad Council of World Affairs and the Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS) seminar on ‘Command and Control System of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia’ in Islamabad (Dawn, 22 February 2000).
34. ‘No Nuclear Threat, says Musharraf’, Times of India, 2 June 2002.
35. ‘Terrorist NGO has Nuclear Weapons Connection’, Asia Times Online, 27 October 2001, http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/CJ2 7Df01.html
36. Ibid.
37. Jonathan Medalia, ‘Nuclear Terrorism: A Brief Review of Threats and Responses’, CRS Report for Congress, Congressional Research Services, RL 32595, 22 September 2004.
38. Michael Krepon, ‘Lessons from an Unpunished Crime in Pakistan’, Yale Global Online, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, 9 February 2004, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=3285
39. Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, New York: Times Book, Hemy Holt and Co., 2004.
40. ‘Al Qaeda had Planned Nuclear Attack’, Asian Age, 9 September 2002.
41. Kamran Khan and Molly Moore, ‘2 Nuclear Experts Briefed Bin Laden, Pakistanis Say’, Washington Post, 12 December 2001, p. 1.
42. Susan Schmidt and Walter Pincus, ‘Al Muhajir Alleged to Be Scouting Terror Sites’, Washington Post, 12 June 2002, Page AO1.
43. Chidanand Rajghatta, ‘US Foils AI Qaeda’s Dirty Bomb Plot’, Times of India, 11 June 2002.
44. Aziz Haniffa, ‘Pakistani Scientists Help Build Dirty Bomb’, India Abroad, New York, 21 June 2002.
45. Susan Schmidt and Walter Pincus, ‘Al Muhajir Alleged to Be Scouting Terror Sites’.
46. ‘Nuclear Plot—Or Just Hot Air?’ CBS News, 23 April 2002.
47. Charles D. Ferguson and William C. Potter with Amy Sands, Leonard S. Spector and Fred L. Wehling, ‘The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism’, The Center for Nonproliferation Studies, UK: Routledge, 2005, p. 5.
48. S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, ‘Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945–2006’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July-August 2006, pp. 64–66, http://www.thebulletin.org/article_nn.php?art_ofn=ja06norris#1
49. US Government, ‘The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2005’, Secretary of Defense, Annual Report to the Congress, 19 July 2005, p. 28.
50. Subhas Kapila, ‘India’s Foreign Policy Challenges 2005’, South Asia Analysis Group, Paper No. 1223, 17 January 2005.
51. Sudha Ramchandran, ‘India Frets as China and Pakistan Embrace’, Asia Times Online, 8 November 2003.
52. Bill Gertz, ‘Beijing Arms Pakistan’, Washington Times, 6 August 2001.
53. G. Parthasarthy, ‘The Zhu-Musharraf Brigade’, www.rediff.com,23 May 2001.
54. Philip Saunders and Jing-dong with Gaurav Kampani, ‘How and Why China proliferates Ballistic Missiles to Pakistan’, www.rediff.com, 22 August 2000.
55. ‘China Constant Supplier of N-products to Pak’, Hindustan Times, 6 September 2000.
56. G. Parthasarthy, ‘The Zhu-Musharraf Brigade’.
57. Philip Saunders and Jing-dong with Gaurav Kampani, ‘How and Why China proliferates Ballistic Missiles to Pakistan’.
58. Center for Nonproliferation Studies, ‘China’s Nuclear Exports and Assistance to Pakistan, California: Monterey Institute of International Studies, 1999, www.cns.miis.edu
59. Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2003, ‘China’s Nuclear Exports and Assistance to Pakistan,’ www.nti.org/db/china/npakpos.htm
60. Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, ‘Pakistan Nuclear Update, 2001’, 2001, www.wisconsinproject.org
61. Gerorge Perkovich, quoted by Aziz Haniffa, ‘Ignoring India’, India Abroad, 14 December 2001.
62. Michael Quinlan, ‘How Robust is India-Pakistan Deterrence?’ Survival, Vol. 42, No.4, Winter 2000–01.
63. Gregory S. Jones, ‘From Testing to Deploying Nuclear Forces’, RAND Issue Paper, Santa Monica, California: Project Air Force, 2000. Available at http://www.rand.org/publications/IP/IP192
64. US Government, ‘Report to Congress on Status of China, India and Pakistan Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs’, as received by the House Foreign Affairs Committee on or before 28 July 1993. Available at http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/930728-wmd.htm
65. Mohammed Ayoob, ‘Nuclear India and India–American Relations’, Orbis, Winter, 1999, p. 63.
66. Claude Arpi, ‘Is China Encircling India?’, 4 October 2004, www.rediff.com
67. Simon Rippon, ‘India:The long Road to Self-Sufficiency’, Nuclear News, Vol. 38, No. 8, 1995, p. 42.
68. Arundhati Ghosh, Tricks and Treaties, Telegraph, 29 May 1998.
69. A.K. Verma, ‘Pakistan Factor in India’s Security, South Asia Analysis Group, Paper No. 602, 11 February 2003, www.saag.org
70. Kanti Bajpai, ‘India’s Nuclear Posture After Pokhran II, International Studies, Vol. 37, No. 4, 2000, p. 299.
71. Arvind Gupta, Mukul Chaturvedi and Akshay Joshi (eds), ‘Security and Diplomacy: Essential Documents’, New Delhi: Manas Publica tions, in collaboration with National Security Council Secretariat, 2004, pp. 19–20.
72. ‘Evolution of India’s Nuclear Policy’, paper laid on the table of the House, 27 May 1998, cited in V.N. Khanna, ‘India’s Nuclear Doctrine, New Delhi: Samskriti, Print Line, 2000, p. 283.
73. Ibid.
74. ‘Missile Tests and Military Tensions in South Asia’, Disarmament Diplomacy, No. 63, March–April 2002, http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd dd63/63m07.htm
75. Government of India, The Diary, Vol. 47, 1–15 May 2003, New Delhi: Ministry of Information and Broadcasting Research, Reference and Training Division, 8 May 2004.
76. J.N. Dixit, ‘Pakistan: The Nuclear Weapons Threat’, Tribune, 9 June 2002.
77. General Assembly Resolution 3265 (29), 9 December 1974, 2309th plenary meeting, 29th Session of the UN General Assembly, p. 30.
78. Ibid., pp. 29–30.
79. Ibid.
80. Excerpts from the Statement by Mr Anand Sharma, Member of Parliament and Member of the Indian Delegation at the 59th Session of the First Committee of the United Nations General, 7 October 2004. The First Committee of UN General Assembly handles all matters on Disarmament and International Security, and meets every year in October for a 4–5 weeks session, after the General Assembly General Debate. All 191 member states of the UN can attend it.
81. Joint Statement, 4th Round of Pakistan–India Expert Level Dialogue on Nuclear CBMs held in Islamabad on 25–26 April 2006, Press Release 26 April 2006.
82. Interview with India’s External Affairs Minister, Outlook, 7 June 2004. http://meaindia.nic.in
83. Government of India, ‘India–Pakistan Joint Statement’, New Delhi: Ministry of External Affairs, 8 September 2004. Available at http://meaindia.nic.in
84. ‘Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack Against Nuclear Installations and Facilities’, signed on 31 December 1988, Islamabad. Instrument of Ratification exchanged in December 1990.
85. Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, ‘India–Pakistan Non-Attack Agreement’, Inventory of International Organization and Regimes, Washington DC: Monterey Institute of International Studies. Available at http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/inven/pdfs/indpak.pdf
86. Memorandum of Understanding, signed by the Indian Foreign Secretary, Mr. K. Raghunath, and the Pakistan Foreign Secretary, Mr. Shamshad Ahmad, at Lahore on 21 February 1999.Available at http://www.stimson.org/southasia/?sn= sa20020109215
87. Government of India, Joint Statement, India–Pakistan Expert-Level Talks on Nuclear CBMs, Ministry of External Affairs, 20 June 2006. Available at http://www.meaindia.nic.in
88. Joint Statement, 4th Round of Pakistan–India Expert Level Dialogue on Nuclear CBMs held in Islamabad.
89. ‘Nuclear Non-Proliferation and International Security’, lecture by Mr Shyam Saran, Foreign Secretary, Government of India, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, 24 October 2005. Available at http://www.idsa.in/speeches_at_idsa/ShyamSaran241005.htm
90. ‘India and Disarmament’, policy statement, available at http://www.un.int/india/india_and_the_un_disarm
91. Arundhati Ghosh, ‘Tricks and Treaties’.
92. Bharat Karnad, Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security, p. 518.
93. Statement by Mr Anand Sharma, Member of Parliament and member of the Indian Delegation at the 59th Session of the First Committee of the United Nations General, 7 October 2004.
94. Ibid.
95. Alastair lain Johnston, ‘China’s New “Old Thinking”’, International Security, Vol. 20, No.3, Winter 1995–96, p. 6.
96. Maleeha Lodhi, ‘Nuclear Cloud Over South Asia’, Times of India, 1 May 2006 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1510766.ems
97. Government of India, Annual Report 2003–2004, New Delhi: Ministry of External Affairs, p. 12.
98. K. Subrahmanyam, ‘Be Asian, Think Global’, Indian Express, 22 November 2006.
99. Government of India, ‘Joint Declaration by the Republic of India and the People’s Republic of China’, New Delhi: Ministry of External Affairs, 21 November 2006. Available at http://meaindia.nic.in/declarestatement/2006/1fraction numer=1 denom=21jd01.htm
100. Ibid.