INDEX

Page numbers followed by ‘n’ refer to notes.

absurd idea 111

affordability 130

after-action reviews (debriefs) 199

alternatives

as concrete 116–17, 134

contrasting 132

creating additional options 103–13

evaluating 144–7

exploring 94–118

interpreting and challenging the results 152–4

as logically valid answer to question 113

matrix’s structure, assembling 144

multiple 116, 153

on-balance decision, making 147–8

as promising 117

as reasonably mutually exclusive 116

treating difficult trade-offs as opportunities 150–1

using options to create 113–17

see also how maps

analogical problem solving 121n19

analysis

conducting 84–6

performing sensitivity 152

quality of 152

anchoring 7, 19n12

appearances, avoiding surprise 59

Apple 173, 182

Aristotelian persuasion 171

assumptions

checking 63

examining 61–3

audience

emotions of 173

engagement with 177–8

recommendations to 179

authority 178

backpack rule 55–8

bad decisions, making 9, 20n17

Bayesian thinking 200–1

Beck, Harry 55–6

benefit criteria 130

bias-blind spot 7

biomimicry 106

Block, Peter 174

Boklok 160

Box, George 54

Branson, Richard 204

Bueno, Juan Carlos 83–4

business education 3

Business Model Canvas (BMC) 165–6

case study

aligning decisions 160

alternatives 125–6

Beck’s map 55–6

CIDNI problems 5

creating safe environment 154

critical decisions 127–8

dealing with baby dragons 39

dissent, promoting 105

effective debriefs, creating 199–200

engaging effectively in adverse conditions 176–7

framing 25, 27, 64

IMD explores new markets 133–4

irreversible decision 203

Jerry’s presentation 57

limiting engagement 178–9

Louis XIV 32–3

MECE thinking 181–2

misdiagnosing engine troubles on BD 092 73

procedural fairness, conveying 148–50

RWH’s service 65

Stora Enso 83–4

Torrey Canyon oil spill 191–2

trade-offs 150–1

Watson rule 62–3

Cerasoli, C. P. 199

challenge

creating shared understanding of 176

network 198

Chekhov, Anton 58

choice problems 122n27

Churchill, Winston 202

CIDNI problems 4–6

ClearerThinking.org 63, 204

comorbidity 86, 90n14

compelling message, developing 171–5

compensation 129

complex problems, solving

CIDNI problems 4–6

Dragon Master™, app to 12

failing to 8–11

in five minutes 207

improving ability to 204

System 1 thinking 6–8

System 2 thinking 8

confidence

level of 63

quantify 193–4

confirmation bias 7

congestion 106

consistency, leverage 175

constraints, relaxing 109–11

construal-level theory 153

core stakeholders 43, 45

Crew Resources Management (CRM) literature 14–15

criteria

exploring 124–36

identifying good 131–4

insightful 129–31

mutually exclusive 128–9

prioritising 135–6

reasonably collectively exhaustive set of 127–8

validating 136

curse of knowledge 28

debiasing technique 19–20n16, 136, 196

debriefs (after-action reviews) 199

decisions

-making 34–5, 51n14

bad, making 9, 20n17

criteria, identifying promising alternatives 124–36

on-balance 147–8

two-way-door 204

see also interdependent decisions

design-thinking approach 74–5

Dietz, Doug 74–5

dissent, promoting 105

diverge–converge sequence 36

Dolly-the-sheep rule 60

Dragon Master™ app 12, 41, 66, 146

Elop, Stephen 173–4

emotions/pathos 173–5

engagement 43, 45

limiting 178–9

error prevention 199

ethos/ethics 172–3

evidence, supporting/opposing 84–6

exploitation 112

exploration 112, 122n25

failures

impact of, reducing 199

probability of, reducing 198

Fangio, Juan Manuel 34

feelings, appropriate 173–4

Feynman, Richard 196

Fitzgerald, F. Scott 206

five forces framework 132

fixed mindset 177

framing, problem 8, 26

case study 25, 27, 64

checklist 67

creating initial 26–48

decision-making 34–5

defining engagement and logistics 42–4

improving 54–67

poor 27, 73

reworking 66

using stories 28

weak signal detection 32–4

see also quest

FrED approach, solving problem using 11–15

Friedman, Jeff 194

functional diversity 105

Galef, Julia 125

Ginnett, Robert 46

Grant, Adam 198

Grove, Andy 153

growth mindset, adoption of 176–7

Haidt, Jonathan 173

halo effect 173

Hero-Treasure-Dragon-Quest (HTDQ) sequence 37–8, 40, 41, 47, 59, 87

HiPPO (Highest Paid Person’s Opinion) 105

how maps

answering a single question 95–7

four rules 95–103

as insightful 101–3

MECE structure 98–101

from question to alternatives 97–8

ICE (independent and collectively exhaustive) 100–1

ideation/ideas

identifying criteria 131–4

using logic to promoting 100

ways to generating 106–11

identity diversity 105

IKEA 162

ill-defined (ID) problems 4

independent and collectively exhaustive (ICE) 100–1

Indiana Bell Telephone Company 203

insightfulness

criteria 129–31

how maps 101–3

why maps 82–4

instructed dissent 105

integrative thinking 150–1

interdependent decisions

aligning 160–7

formulating problem 162–3

making decisions across multiple domains of choices 161

using existing frameworks 165–7

beyond your personal preferences 163–5

intuition, testing 198

irreversible decision 203

isomorphic problems 106

Jobs, Steve 182

Kahneman, Daniel 7, 45

Kaner, Sam 51n14

Karvinen, Jouko 83

Keynes, John Maynard 10

Knudstorp, Jørgen Vig 151

LEAD approach 84–5

left-to-right and right-to-left approaches, to idea generation 111

logistics, sorting out 44, 45

logos/logic 172

Louis XIV 32–3

Lovallo, Dan 45

Martin, Roger 116, 151, 211n11

Maslow 166

matrix’s structure, assembling 144

McKee, Robert 37

MECE (mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) thinking 89n7

for engagement 181–2

how maps 98–101

why maps 80–2

mitigation strategies, adopting 176

Newton, Elizabeth 28

nodes, phrasing 78–9

Nokia 173–4

non-immediate but important (NI) problems 4

novel ideas, ways to generating

applying solution of similar problem 106

reframing problem 108–9

relaxing constraints 109–11

O’Connor, Flannery 66

Odysseus 35

on-balance decision, making 147–8

one-way-door decisions 203

options

creating additional 103–13

to creating alternatives 113–17

organisational silence 135

Osborn, Alex 103

outcome bias 213n35

overconfidence 194–6, 198

pathos/emotions 173–5

Pauling, Linus 103

peer power 174

perfection, not aiming for 66

Piccard, Bertrand 122n26

pilot monitoring (PM) 44

piranha solutions 122n26

plan continuation bias (PCE) 191, 192

Porter, Michael 132, 161

Power Distance (PD) 134–5

probabilistic mindset, adopting 193–9

probability of failures, reducing 198

problem

applying solution of similar 106

CIDNI 4–6

defining 2

diagnosing root causes of 72–88

formulating 162–3

four-step LEAD approach 84–5

investing in elaborate solution process for 6

reframing 86–7, 108–9

root causes, uncovering 86

solving

complex 4–11

components 25

criteria to 124–36

open-minded during 183–5

skills 3, 205

using FrED approach 11–15

using existing frameworks for 167

why map 74–84

see also complex problems, solving; framing, problem; specific entries

problem solvers, hard to find good 3

procedural fairness, conveying 148–50

process, focus on 206–7

profitability 86–7, 181

psychological safety 154, 176

pushback, expecting 180–1

qualitative criteria 130

qualitative evaluation approach (alternatives) 145

quantitative evaluation (alternatives) 146

quest

asking for help 45–6

attentiveness to weak signals 32–4

backpack rule 55–8

case study 32–3

contextualising 37–8

creating initial frame 26–48

deal with multiple dragons 38–9

decision-making 34–5

diverge–converge sequence 36

Dolly rule 60

finding 29–35

fine-tune 54–66

Hero-Treasure-Dragon-Quest sequence 37–8, 40, 41, 47, 59

identifying stakeholders 43, 45

logistics 44, 45

rabbit rule 59

summarisation 39

updating, reframing the problem 86–7

using frame to improve thinking 64–6

Watson rule 61–3

writing good 30

rabbit rule 59

reciprocation, need for 174

Reisböck, Max 150

requisite decision model 211n12

responsibilities, clarifying 178

return on investment 86–7

revenues 86–7, 183

root causes, identifying 72–88

Rosenzweig, Phil 173

Rousseau, Denise 20n17

Rumelt, Richard 57, 148, 164

Russell, Bertrand 193

safe space, creating 46

safety, psychological 154, 176

‘satisficing’ 121n23

scarcity, creating 175

Scotus, John Duns 89n7

scout mindset 125

secretary problem 122n25

selling mode 184–5

sensitivity analysis, performing 152

shared mental model (SMM) 44

Simon, Herbert 121n23

skills, improving 204–5

Sloan, Alfred P. 123n30

social validation 174

soldier mindset 125

solution space, exploring 94–118

stakeholders

categorising 174

diverse group of 105

engaging 6, 10, 77, 85, 134, 178

identifying 43, 45

perspectives of 116

Stanovich, Keith 22n28

status-quo bias 7

Stora Enso 83–4

Strategy Diamond model 165

substance part, framing 37–8, 40, 41

sympathy, generating 172–3

System 1 thinking 6–8

System 2 thinking 8

Tannenbaum, S. I. 199

team resiliency 176

thinking, updating our 200–4

Thomason, Neil 59

Torrey Canyon oil spill 191–2

Total Quality Management approach 78

Toyota 78

trade-offs 112, 116, 125, 150–1, 181

training 204–5

TreeToTextile AB 83

trust-agreement matrix 174–5

trustworthiness, creating 172

two-way-door decisions 204

Ulysses 35

unambiguous 129

uncertainty, managing 196–7

value-focused thinking 119n3

van Gelder, Tim 200

Vonnegut, Kurt, Sr 203

Walker, Matthew 111

Watson rule 61–3

weak signal detection, framing complex problems 32–4

weighing process 136

West, Richard 22n28

why maps 74–84

choosing why question 76–7

four rules 74–84

guidelines 78–80

as insightful 82–4

as MECE 80–2

from question to potential root causes 77–80

wins and successes, recognising 176

WYSIATI 7

Xu Huang 135