9 Anticipatory Thinking

What's Next?

Imagine the following scenario: you're at home with a significant other who says, “Can you please go to the grocery store and get a dozen eggs?” You agree and drive to the grocery store for some eggs. Shortly after you return, your housemate says, “We have that party to go to tonight. Can you please pick up the dry cleaning?” Again you agree, and off you go to retrieve the dry cleaning. As you return to your house, you start thinking about that party and realize you probably should bring a small gift. Out you go again, back to the grocery store, to buy a thank you card. Later that evening, you and your housemate get in the car to drive to the party. You notice the gas gauge is low, and although stopping for gas will make you a little late, you have no choice but to stop at the gas station.

Rewind. Imagine if the conversation were this: “Can you please pick up a dozen eggs, and while you are out, can you also pick up the dry cleaning, because we have that party tonight?” You then think to yourself, “Hmm, party tonight. I probably should pick up a card while at the grocery store and check to see if I need gas. I can fill up at the same time.” Imagine how much time you would have saved!

Anticipatory thinking is a way to stimulate thinking about consequences and related tasks that you may not have initially contemplated. Basically, it entails asking what's next. What's after that? What will happen if I do this? What might be the reaction if I say this?

How many times have you said to someone, “If you do that, then someone's going to get hurt,” “If you do that, then the customers will not be happy,” or “If you say that, I'm taking cover, 'cause you're going to get your head handed to you”? Instead of those warnings, ask, “What will happen if you do that?” This will prompt the person who is about to take that action to do a little critical thinking on his or her own to determine the likely consequences of his or her impending action.

Architects are a group of professionals who are constantly asking what's next. A database architect will not just look at immediate requirements but will also ask, “What do you think you'll want three years from now?” A building architect might question, “Are you planning on putting a swimming pool on the roof?” They ask questions such as these because if they designed a building that someone wanted to add to later—for example, put a swimming pool on the roof—there's a good chance they'd have to change the design to provide more support for the structure. If the building is already in progress, that's a very expensive alteration.

Here I always recall the Boy Scouts' motto, “Be prepared,” because anticipatory thinking is all about being prepared. If you're going camping, you may anticipate weather changes and bring appropriate clothing. How about when giving a performance review? If you're a manager, one of your responsibilities is to give feedback to your employees on their performance. Many managers will write reviews but never ask themselves the question about what's next. If the performance review highlights some areas of improvement, the next step is to provide suggestions as to how the employee can accomplish that growth. If an employee is demonstrating superior performance, it's a good idea to point out how he or she can influence other members of the team.

One of the more impactful applications of asking what's next is in the arena of business development, particularly product development. I've seen countless companies reap the benefits of a very successful product offering only to squander their lead because they didn't anticipate what was next. Customers' needs change, and so do their requirements for new solutions. The companies who continue to innovate are always asking, “What's next?” and “What's after that?” High-tech companies, such as Google, Apple, and Amazon are always asking what's next. Retailers, such as the Gap, are asking what's next when it comes to clothing trends. Auto companies are looking at what's next both in transportation needs as well as in alternative fuels and electric cars. Home builders ask what's next not only with respect to materials, room layouts, and kitchens but also about built-in Wi-Fi or even fiber optics: “If we come out with this new offering and it's a hit, then our competition will be sure to jump on it. What do we plan to do when that happens?” and “How are our customers evolving—what's next for them?”

One more situation where you want to ask “What's next?” is in looking beyond your company and seeing what's coming to the world of technology, operations, medical procedures, manufacturing methods, leadership techniques, motivation and incentive trends, health care solutions, and more. You want to be asking constantly: What are people out there working on? What solutions, although not available today, will be available tomorrow, next month, or over the next few years? It's incredibly valuable to get a notion of what's coming next in the supply chain, the components that you use in your products, or the applications and tools that your company might use to solve a future problem.

For example, in 2011, Boeing began commercial flights of its 787 Dreamliner aircraft. One of the highly competitive aspects of the Dreamliner is its fuel efficiency, partly because of the use of the lightweight, yet stronger than aluminum, carbon fiber materials. Years before the Dreamliner's launch, Boeing's engineers were certainly looking out for new materials that they could use to reduce the aircraft's weight while improving its strength. You can be sure that someone was asking, “What's next in materials?” when pondering that question. As a result, Boeing took the lead in the use of carbon fibers in aircraft with its exciting Dreamliner.

Most people are naturally good at anticipatory thinking and answering what's next. The problem is that we don't ask that question often enough—at least, not in a professional setting. But think about all the anticipatory thinking you do when driving your car. You're looking ahead at people in a crosswalk; at the possibility the traffic light might change to yellow or red; and at the cars to your left and right, in back and in front of you, and at the intersection, anticipating the possibility that someone might do something stupid. When you do this, you're thinking—even in your automatic mode—about all the things that might happen next. You're good at this. You just need to learn to apply the same thing to critical thinking in your business world. You can do it by asking the question “What's next?”

Getting Started with Anticipatory Thinking

Here are a few places you can use what's next:

• When someone communicates a new task or initiative to you: When you get or delegate a responsibility, are you asking (or communicating) what might be next? People will execute their initial task differently if they know what's coming down the road. Knowing what's next after your current task will change how you work on whatever that particular thing is. For example, if you know after you complete a project you'll need to document the steps you have taken, then you will keep track of those things as you accomplish your task. This is much easier than having to search your memories for all the details long forgotten.
• When people who have a lot of responsibilities or roles add yet another to their plate: Say, for example, that your college kid proclaims that he's going to join another intramural activity. You might just want to ask what's next by saying, “Sounds interesting. How will that affect your study or your 15 other activities?” Also, you can use anticipatory thinking when you get additional professional responsibilities. How is this going to affect your other work? Let's say that you are promoted to a manager position, asked to lead a new team, or moved to a new company in a leadership position. You might use anticipatory thinking to consider your direct reports' perspective and get some idea about what they might be wondering. Anticipate that they are asking themselves about what you are like, what you are going to change, and how it's going to affect their job and current projects. You'll be prepared to answer these questions if you ask yourself, “What's next after I start this new job or position?”
• When you are interacting with customers: Good salespeople always agree with their prospective customer about what the next step is. What's next makes it clear to all parties who is to do what, and, importantly, when. It moves the ball forward. You can apply this with your customers, on projects, and in teams by asking everyone involved what his or her next step will be.
• In meetings: Before you end the meeting, ask what's next. Is there an action list? A follow-up? Who is accountable for what?
• When prioritizing: Map things out: do this first, then this, then that, and so on. Ordering with respect to “This has to come after that” can help as an efficiency tool.