23 Consistency

The Consistency of Your Premise Components

Another tool that ensures a strong premise is consistency, which is the way that premise elements support each other. For example, let's say you read glowing reviews for a restaurant on several review websites—dozens of them, and all were great. A few of your friends also ate at the restaurant and loved it too, and the American Automobile Association (AAA) rated it high. A newspaper article on the place rated it top-notch. The restaurant has been in business for 23 years. These observations are very consistent and would make you confident the restaurant is good. Then you read one review from a person who hated the place and said the service was slow, the food was cold, and the server was nasty. This review is inconsistent with everything else—but because there are so many positive reviews against the one negative review, you probably would discount it.

Premises are stronger when their components are consistent. However, inconsistency isn't necessarily a bad thing; it identifies conflicting information, which yields a suspicious, weak premise. When you understand why there's conflicting information, or if you can resolve the inconsistency, your premise becomes stronger. Let's say you're shopping online at Amazon.com. You're looking for an item you usually buy for around $20. Most of the items you observe online are also in the $20 range, but you see one for $14. Because that price is inconsistent with your experience and other observations, it catches your attention. You think about two possible conclusions: either it's a great deal, or it's too good to be true. Your premise needs something to resolve this inconsistency, in this case, more observations. You might read some reviews on the vendor from others who purchased at that price or read the fine print to find out more details. Ultimately, you might find supporting evidence (observations) consistent with it being a great deal, so you buy it.

Consistency with your own experiences is a heavily weighted factor. If you hear about observations inconsistent with your experience, you'll discount those observations. For example, if you had a great experience with a customer support center for a product you purchased, you would tend to discount a statement from someone who said that company had awful customer support. You must take care here; again, we can distort things, so just because we've had the experience doesn't mean our memory is really the way things were. For example, if you played a solo clarinet piece during a band performance, you might think your performance was awful, yet others tell you it was great. You'll discount those observations because you have a distorted view of your performance. Also, we may have had too few experiences upon which we're putting too much unwarranted weight. Still, a warning light should flash. There's an inconsistency, so additional inquiries and review should be the next step.

Inconsistency in your premise is a signal that you are not done. If you can't explain why there are conflicting facts, observations, and experiences, then your premise is weak. Your subsequent assumptions will be suspect, as will the resulting conclusions. You must resolve any inconsistency.

For example, you're looking at a project schedule and everything is green—good to go and on schedule. When you ask team members, they say, “We have our challenges here, like we do every project; but things are looking good.” You notice a number of people on the project are working very late each night, the department's stress level seems high, and people are postponing vacations. There's inconsistency with everything looking good and people working so hard. Although this might be the result of a dedicated team ensuring the project is finished on time, it could mean you are right at the edge of a problem. Would you take this information to your senior management and say, “The project is on schedule, and everything is good to go”—or would you first check out how close things are between “looking good” and “So far so good; but we're barely making every deliverable, and we're in big trouble if something unexpected happens”?

Getting Started with Consistency

Here are a few instances in which you want to take a close look at consistency:

• When you are presented facts and observations: Compare them with other facts, observations, and your experience. Are things consistent? Do they add up?
• When reviewing data: Is the data you're reviewing consistent? Let's say you're in a seasonal business; for example, you sell gardening tools. Every spring, you see a spike in demand for your product, but you're seeing less of that this year. You need to investigate this inconsistency.
• When saying and doing: Is what people are saying consistent with what they are doing? You may have heard the expression “Walk the talk.” If you say, “We're all about the customer,” but then do things that are not in the customers' best interest, your premise supporting the conclusion “We are customer-centric” would be suspect. For example, a customer calls with a problem at 4:50 PM, and your live support closes at 5:00. After 10 minutes of working with the customer, the support rep says, “I'm sorry; we are closing now. Please call us back tomorrow.” How consistent do you think that customer will think you are with your brochure that says, “Customers are our number one priority, and we go the extra length to satisfy you”?
• When observing trends: Look for inconsistent events relative to a trend. For example, let's say you have a punctual employee. Suddenly, he or she is late often. This would be a reason to raise an eyebrow and investigate. Is there a personal issue? Is he or she looking for a job elsewhere?
• When evaluating assumptions: Facts, observations, and experiences should support and be consistent with an assumption when you ask yourself or others, “How did you arrive at that assumption?”