Chapter 9
How Everything Comes Together

I love it when a plan comes together

— John “Hannibal” Smith (The A-Team)

This is where all the pieces come together.

With the help of five case studies, we will bring you through our thought processes all the way from how we arrived at these companies, to understanding their operations, then all the way on to the valuation techniques employed.

Here is what we will be exploring for each company:

  • business – what they do
  • type of value – what type of value we are looking at
  • screening – how we arrived at this company
  • what's interesting – analysis of the business (financial and non-financial factors)
  • major shareholders
  • valuation.

Remember, our valuations are based on our own estimates, meaning that it is unique to us. As our case studies are purely for educational purposes, they should not be taken as investment advice.

When working on one of your opportunities, you may use this section to guide your investment process. With this framework in place, you would be able to customise it to fit your personal style. Just bear in mind to always challenge the assumptions that led you to your investment decision.

From the get-go, we made known to you that our book serves as a guide on how to move from the theoretical to the practical application of a value-based approach when investing in Asia. And we plan to keep this promise.

With what we have learned up to this point, we will incorporate the knowledge obtained by applying it to five case studies, each unique in their own ways:

  1. value through assets – Hongkong Land Holdings Limited
  2. current earning power – Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holdings Corporation
  3. growth through cyclicality – First Resources Limited
  4. special situation – Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company Limited
  5. high growth (the Land of Fast-Growing Unicorns) – Tencent Holdings Limited.

CASE STUDY Value Through Assets – Hongkong Land Holdings Limited

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited (“Hongkong Land”) is one of the largest property companies listed on the Singapore exchange with a market capitalisation of US$16.0 billion (2016).1 The Group owns and manages almost 800,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, primarily in Hong Kong and Singapore2 (Table 9.1).

Table 9.1: Hongkong Land Holdings Limited's Hong Kong Assets

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited
Hong Kong Assets
  1 One Exchange Square
  2 Two Exchange Square
  3 Three Exchange Square
  4 The Forum
  5 Jardine House
  6 Chater House
  7 Alexandra House
  8 Gloucester Tower
  9 Edinburgh Tower (The Landmark Mandarin Oriental)
10 York House
11 Landmark Atrium
12 Prince's Building

As part of the Jardine Matheson Group of companies (one of the largest conglomerates in Asia),3 Hongkong Land is the property owner of many prime buildings in Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand. In the first half of 2016, about 82% of the underlying profit of the company came from its property ownership business, including its associates and joint ventures.4

And with 76% of the group's gross assets in Hong Kong (with a significant concentration in the Central district), Hongkong Land is viewed as a landlord of high-quality properties in Hong Kong.5

Apart from being a property owner, the company is also a property developer, with projects in China, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines.6

Type of Value   Discount to asset value.

Screening – How We Ended Up with This Company   Who does not like property! Jokes aside, when screening for companies, the criteria we focused on included:

  • tangible assets: assets must be backed by real tangible assets and not intangibles like goodwill
  • substantial discount to book: looking for companies with low price to tangible book value
  • industry headwinds: avoiding companies in industries facing structural declines
  • track record: looking for companies with some profitability, size and reputation
  • low leverage: avoiding highly leveraged companies.

Using this simple screening process, we could end up with a much more manageable basket of possible investments. To kick things off, we narrowed our universe to real-estate-based companies listed in Hong Kong and Singapore trading at way below their net tangible book value. In our case, “way below” meant a price to tangible book value of less than 0.6 times.

Next, we were also interested in companies of a certain size, and we settled for companies with a market capitalisation of over USD500 million.

Finally, we prefer to look at companies that are conservative when it comes to debt. Therefore, the company should have a total debt to capital ratio of less than 20%. Total capital generally refers to debt plus shareholders' equity. Remember, these criteria are not fixed, not at all; it all depends on your own expectation and requirement.

With these four simple metrics, and with the help of the Financial Times online Equity Screener application,7 we were able to arrive at a list of companies to investigate within Asia (Table 9.2).

Table 9.2: Results from the Financial Times Equity Screener

Company Listing Market Cap (USD billion) Total Debt to Capital Price-to-Book Ratio
C C Land Holdings Limited HK 0.79 0% 0.46
Hang Lung Group Limited HK 5.60 18% 0.58
Hongkong Land Holdings Limited SG 16.66 12% 0.56
Hopewell Holdings Limited HK 3.17 5% 0.53
Hysan Development Co Limited HK 4.85 8% 0.56
Liu Chong Hing Investments Limited HK 0.55 10% 0.39
Soundwill Holdings Limited HK 0.52 11% 0.25
Tian Teck Land Limited HK 0.54 1% 0.54

Once we have the preliminary list of short-listed companies, we can then proceed to do a short study on each company to determine whether it is worth a deeper analysis. When it came to our list above, one company stood head and shoulders above the crowd. This company is Singapore-listed Hongkong Land.

Most of the companies on our list are relatively small and do not have a strong economic moat surrounding their business. Unlike them, Hongkong Land is one of the most well-known property companies in Asia, with many valuable assets on its balance sheet. Moreover, being part of the Jardine Matheson Group of companies is also a plus in our books.

What's Interesting?   When looking at investments with value based on its assets, we prefer to approach this from a “Why is it trading at a discount?” and “What can go wrong?” approach. And Hongkong Land is no different. And we start by answering four of these issues:

  1. Why is it trading below its net tangible book value?
  2. Is there a catalyst?
  3. If not, can it continue to grow its book value in the future?
  4. What are the risks?

Why is it Trading below its Net Tangible Book Value?   We feel that there were two key reasons why the market was pricing Hongkong Land at such levels.

  • Hong Kong's property market was facing some headwinds.8
  • Market participants looking at the company from a dividend yield perspective. In early 2017, the company had a dividend yield of 2.78%,9 below the market average of 3.26%10 and 3.04%11 for the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong and SPDR Straits Times Index ETF respectively.

The Hong Kong property market saw huge price appreciation from 2009 to 2015.12 Only in the beginning of 2016 did prices start to decline.13 It seemed at that time that the fundamentals were not looking great for the Hong Kong economy.14

Even with all that being said, Hongkong Land still owns some of the most prime commercial properties in the central business district of Hong Kong, all strategically located in the Central district of the city. Due to its prime location, these properties might be more defensive in nature in terms of rental and value.

To address this concern, let us assume a “worst” scenario, in which all of Hongkong Land's Hong Kong investment properties in 1H2016 fall by 30%, meaning that the carrying value of these properties decreases from US$25 billion to US$18 billion,15 translating into a drop of US$7 billion in value. If we account for that drop, the equity value of the company would fall from US$30 billion to about US$23 billion, or about US$10 per share.16 During December 2016, Hongkong Land hovered about US$6.30 per share. This meant that our estimation of the company’s intrinsic value, which was based on a rather pessimistic assumption of Hong Kong's property market, was still at least 50% higher than its then-current share price.

Now, to address our second concern, is the market valuing the company at such levels because of its dividend payout ratio? From the nature of its operations and assets, we cannot discount the possibility of market participants valuing the company from a dividend approach. And with Hongkong Land's dividend yield lower than both the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong and SPDR Straits Times Index ETF, this might be a valid concern.

Is there a Catalyst in the Future for the Company to be Fully Valued Again?    As a catalyst, an increase in dividend pay-out could be just what the doctor ordered.

For such an event to take place, it depends on both the capability and the willingness of the company. So how did Hongkong Land fare on this issue?

We will first approach this by considering Hongkong Land's capability. For most real estate investment-based companies, a significant part of their earnings is derived from the revaluation gains of their investment assets. Hongkong Land is no different. Note: Revaluation gains are paper profits and do not show the true earnings potential of the company from an operational level. Thus we should make certain adjustments to get a better picture of the true earning potential of the company.

From the chart in Figure 9.1, we can see that Hongkong Land's core operational earnings were greatly skewed based on the revaluation gain or loss on that year.

Histogram showing Hongkong Land Holdings Limited Earnings Comparison.

Figure 9.1 Hongkong Land Holdings Limited Earnings Comparison17

Next, we move on to see how healthy their balance sheet is. A key concern for companies in capital-intensive industries is the irregular nature of their free cash flow – in other words, their dependence on debt. However, with Hongkong Land's total borrowing to shareholders' funds at just 13%,18 we do not view this to be an issue.

With their capability settled, we will move on to gauge the willingness of the company. And the only way we can do this is from the track record of the company.

After plotting Hongkong Land's shareholders' dividend against its core operational earnings (Figure 9.2), it was clear that the average pay-out ratio for the last decade was consistently at a comfortable level of about 50%.

Histogram showing Hongkong Land Dividend Pay-out Ratio.

Figure 9.2 Hongkong Land Dividend Pay-out Ratio19

To conclude, as an outside observer, it appears that the company has the capability to increase its dividend level.

If Not, Can it Continue to Grow its Book Value in the Future?    Based on the historical track record of the company, it has been able to grow its book value very successfully. Its net asset value per share increased from just US$4.76 in 200620 to US$12.19 per share in 2015.21

That translated into a compounded annual growth rate of 11%. Furthermore, this was achieved with just a relatively conservative debt level. Looking forward, the company has also entered many growth markets such as Southeast Asia and China to diversify away from its business concentration in Hong Kong. These markets might fuel the growth of its book value going forward.

Looking Hongkong Land’s investment pipeline, it does seem that Hongkong Land will be able to continue to build its asset base for many years to come.

What Are the Risks?    Over the short term, the volatile market conditions in Hong Kong together with the slowdown in Singapore's property scene might put some pressure on the company's ability to grow. As Hongkong Land is highly concentrated in these two markets, any decline in rental yield or property value in these two countries would directly impact both the revenue and book value of the company.

Over the longer term, the challenges that are facing Hong Kong as a financial hub might stagnate its economy. Hong Kong used to be the gateway to mainland China. However, as China is opening itself up to the world, the need for businesses to use Hong Kong as a transit point might be reduced greatly in the future. The opening of a free-trade zone in Shanghai and the liberalisation of its currency and financial markets might reduce the importance of Hong Kong. If that happens, the growth for the company within Hong Kong would become very limited.

The shareholder and management structure of the company is also a concern. Even though slim, there always exists a possibility that the major shareholders interest might put minority shareholders at a disadvantage in some decisions. Although such instances are not common in the past, it is still a risk we have to think about.

Major Shareholders (3 March 2016)22

  • Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited: 50.01%

Valuation   When it comes to valuations, we have to make certain fundamental assumptions, and we will go with two for each case study. In the case of Hongkong Land, our key assumptions are:

  • Hong Kong and Singapore remain as key financial centres in the near future
  • The bulk of Hongkong Land’s properties do not vanish overnight

Due to the nature of Hongkong Land's assets and operation make-up, the valuation technique we selected was rather straightforward – the Price-to-Book methodology. This was primarily because the bulk of Hongkong Land's assets were investment properties that are revalued every year. Therefore, the properties are quite reflective of the current market expectations. Furthermore, the company had minimal debts and liabilities.

In summary, even if we were to consider our “worst” case scenario, whereby its portfolio of investment properties in Hong Kong was hit by a 30% decline, Hongkong Land was estimated to be worth about US$10 per share, over 50% higher than its November 2016 market price of US$6.30.23 For reference, Hongkong Land’s Price-to-Book ratio over a 10-year period from 2007–2016 is shown in Table 9.3.

Table 9.3: Under Hongkong Land Case Study Section

FY Price-to Book Ratio Min Average Max
2007 0.62 0.74 0.85
2008 0.34 0.64 0.84
2009 0.28 0.51 0.75
2010 0.51 0.64 0.84
2011 0.40 0.59 0.72
2012 0.42 0.53 0.64
2013 0.50 0.60 0.71
2014 0.50 0.57 0.61
2015 0.54 0.62 0.72
2016 0.42 0.48 0.54
10-Year Average 0.45 0.59 0.72

Conclusion   Although the catalyst from Hongkong Land is uncertain, its long track record of growing its book value gives us more confidence in the company’s future developments. In simple words, even if the market did not re-rate the company, the management would still work towards building up its net tangible book value, allowing shareholders to enjoy the growth. Well, on the bright side, at current levels, one can still look towards a dividend yield of 3%.

CASE STUDY Current Earning Power – Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holdings Corporation

In 2014, PepsiCo, Inc. signed a deal to supply beverages to Walt Disney Co's first China resort – Shanghai Disney Resort. This was the first time in 25 years that PepsiCo sold beverages through Disneyland.24 Why did Disneyland choose PepsiCo over Coca-Cola?

With over 50% of China's ready-to-drink (“RTD”) tea market in 2015,25 Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holdings Corporation (“Tingyi Holdings”) might be the reason. Founded by the Taiwanese Wei brothers, Hong Kong-listed Tingyi Holdings is a giant in China's instant noodles and RTD tea markets. Almost all of Tingyi's sales are within the PRC. In short, Tingyi Holdings is an investment in the Chinese consumer food and beverage sector, especially in the instant noodle and RTD tea markets. For Tingyi Holdings, it was represented by its “Master Kong” – 康师傅 brand.26 In 2011, Tingyi Holdings and PepsiCo entered into an agreement for a strategic alliance, bringing the companies to the top of the carbonated soft drinks (“CSD”) market, and further strengthening their beverage position in China.27,28

Missed your chance on Coca-Cola back in the late 1990s? Ironically, this opportunity might still be available through Tingyi Holdings and its partnership with PepsiCo.

Type of Value   Current earning power and growth potential.

Screening – How We Ended Up with This Company   We found this company through what we called a “top-down” approach. A top-down analysis can be done by starting at the big picture of the economy. In this example, we started from looking at the growing consumerism in China, expecting consumer spending to grow in China. We then narrow our search to easy-to-understand consumer staples companies in China, given the more stable demand of its products. Here is a summary of how we narrow it down to Tingyi Holdings.

  • China consumer story – Long-term growth of consumerism in China
  • easier-to-understand consumer staples – stable demand business
  • F&B sector – defensive
  • strong cash flow and low leverage – showing strength of the company
  • close to 52-week low share price – one good area to look for undervalued companies.

What's Interesting?   In Tingyi Holdings’ case, we will be focusing on these four points of interest:

  1. proxy for the China Consumer Story
  2. 52-week low share price
  3. barriers of entry – distribution
  4. the partner of choice.

Proxy for the China Consumer Story    As one of the leaders in China's food and beverage industry, Tingyi Holdings is a proxy for the China consumer story. Given its huge size and market share, it might be considered as a mature business. Yet there might still be growth, albeit slower than fast-growing technology companies. The company’s chairman, Wei Ing-Chou, mentioned when the company was founded that the Chinese on average ate five packages of noodles per year. In 2011, that number was 30. At the same time, the price of each package of noodle has increased. In the next 20 years, he predicts that it will double.29 And for the potential of beverage operations in the Chinese market, we leave you with an extract of a 2012 press release, with PepsiCo Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Indra Nooyi highlighting that “China will soon surpass the United States to become the largest Beverage market in the world. As a result of this new alliance with Tingyi, PepsiCo is extremely well positioned for long-term growth in China”.30

Instant noodles are not new technology untested in the market. Many mature economies have seen the rise of the popularity of instant noodles in the past. Therefore, urbanisation and modern retail channels should benefit Tingyi even more.

52-Week Low Share Price    The last time Tingyi Holdings saw a market capitalisation of about HKD40 billion (USD5 billion) was way back in 2006.31 In 2015, its revenue was 290% higher; its shareholders' profit was 72% higher and its shareholders' equity was up by over 200%.32 And 2015 was considered a bad year for the company.

Hong Kong-listed consumer staples like Want Want China Holdings Limited, Tingyi Holdings and Hengan International Group Co. Limited were three of the four most shorted stocks on the Hong Kong benchmark index back in July 2016.33 The story behind this was that consumers are reportedly showing a preference for healthier food. In just six months from January to June 2016, Tingyi Holdings' market capitalisation fell by almost a third, to a price level not seen since 2006. To place things in context, its share price was down more than 70% from its peak in 2011.34

Possible reasons why the company's share price tanked:

  • previously traded at a rich valuation
  • transition phase with the first non-family Chief Executive Officer appointed in 201535
  • operational issues in its core operations.

However, these issues were not structurally damaging. Tingyi was still:

  • cash-generative – the company was still very cash-generative. Furthermore, the company was operating with a negative cash conversion cycle. This means that they are getting paid by their customers before they had to pay their suppliers; a nice business model
  • the market leader in China's instant noodles and RTD tea market (2016) – 52% of instant noodles (sales value) and 43% of RTD milk tea (sales value).36

Additionally:

  • Tingyi Holdings has a long and proven track record.
  • The integration with PepsiCo China was slowly settling – lower integration accounting charges (reduction in termination benefits).37
  • Most importantly, already has the infrastructure and network in place – a huge asset for the company.

Barriers to Entry – Distribution    Competition Demystified by Bruce Greenwald is a great book on moats.38 In the book, the rule of thumb in identifying whether barriers to entry exist in an industry involves looking for the existence of these two points:

  1. stability of market share among a handful of competitors, with a dominant firm
  2. profitability of the companies.

We already know that Tingyi Holdings is the market leader in China's instant noodles and RTD tea markets. Moreover, in the instant noodles and RTD tea market, the market share among the top three to four players is relatively stable. The top four players in both the instant noodles and RTD tea market in China have consistently made up over 80% of the market share, a sign of high barriers to entry.39 And as the biggest bigger player in both markets, Tingyi was the elephant in this room. Together with its closest competitor, Uni-President China Holdings Limited, these two companies had a duopoly-like hold when it came to instant noodles and RTD tea operations. To further strengthen its position, Tingyi, with its newly integrated PepsiCo operations, is now dominant in three of its key operations.

Other than its products (some might say a drink is a drink is a drink), the key advantage Tingyi Holdings had was its massive distribution capability. Back in 2011, Tingyi Holdings' Chairman Wei Ing-Chou even mentioned that the company thrived on distribution.40 In the mass-market consumer product industry, owning the market looks to be more important because:

  • Barriers to replicating consumer staple products are not that high.
  • It is far more difficult to develop a strong nationwide distribution and production network.

As market leader, Tingyi Holdings could leverage on their scale and research and development efforts to launch products that are popular in the market, and use the company's distribution reach to their advantage. In addition, the PepsiCo alliance added a whole new dimension to things. More PepsiCo products could lead to more shelf space. And with Tingyi Holdings' extensive distribution network, distribution of more products should not be an issue. A virtuous cycle.

Economies of scale depend on the ability to spread out fixed costs and with the manufacturing process. Therefore, Tingyi has a tangible competitive edge in their much-heralded distribution network:

  • Advertising and promotion: Dollar for dollar, if Tingyi spent the same percentage of revenue, they would outspend their competitors and have a wider audience to address.
  • Distribution: Water is heavy to transport and expensive to deliver; the more customers in a given region, the more economical it is for the company per unit of goods.

Tingyi's strategic alliances also brought advantages in the field of research and development (“R&D”). With PepsiCo alliance, a global perspective was brought into the room. With PepsiCo's new Shanghai R&D centre, the largest outside North America catering to the entire Asian region, Tingyi can tap into PepsiCo's expertise to boost its product offering.41

The Partner of Choice    Sanyo Foods Co., Ltd., Asahi Breweries Limited and Itochu Corporation are three of the largest global food and beverage companies. What do they have in common? Before it was cool, these three Japanese firms followed the same strategy to ride on the China consumer story – they all invested in Tingyi.42 We know Berkshire Hathaway as the company people come knocking on the door of when they want to divest. In Tingyi Holdings' case, they looked to be the go-to company for the distribution of consumer goods in China. So why did PepsiCo decide to partner with Tingyi Holdings?

It might be due to Tingyi Holdings' 598 sales offices, 71 warehouses, 29,985 wholesalers and 115,435 direct retailers in China (2016).43 This was also huge enough to attract other players like Disneyland and Starbucks to join the partnership. With PepsiCo, a huge beverage player themselves, this deal demonstrated the strength of Tingyi Holdings. Many multinational companies invested and failed to make meaningful profits in China. This was the case for PepsiCo as well. Instead of continuing to invest money into China, PepsiCo essentially decided, if you can't beat them, join them.

Disneyland's landmark arrangement to get beverages from Tingyi-PepsiCo was just the tip of the iceberg. In 2015, PepsiCo became the exclusive food and beverage sponsor of the NBA in North America – upending the long-standing arrangement the NBA had with Coca-Cola.44 Basketball is a big thing in China and guess who became PepsiCo's beverage partner in China. In 2015, Tingyi Holdings became the NBA's partner in China through the Master Kong brand, a slam dunk for Tingyi Holdings.45

Shareholders (31 December 2015)46

  • Ting Hsin (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp.: 33.40%
  • Sanyo Foods Co., Ltd: 33.61%

Valuation   We will look at the valuations of Tingyi Holdings through three different yet simple methods, with not much in the way of projections used. The idea is: if simple calculations can do the job, why should we complicate things?

Our key assumptions are:

  • People continue to eat instant noodles
  • Decent recovery in profitability for the beverage arm

Normalised Earnings    We can use a normalised earnings method to value Tingyi Holdings. Some of the assumptions are:

  • Instant noodles net profit = US$300 million
    • revenue of US$4 billion
    • instant noodles operating margin = 10% (five-year average: 10%)47
    • operating profit = US$400 million
    • financing cost = US$0 (three-year average = ~US$0 million)
    • tax rate = 25% (statutory rate in the PRC).48
  • Beverage net profit = US$50 million
    • revenue of US$6 billion
    • beverage operating margin = 3% (five-year average: 4%)
    • operating profit = US$180 million
    • financing cost = US$50 million (three-year average = US$36 million)
    • tax rate = 25% (statutory rate in the PRC)
    • as Tingyi owned 47.51% of Tingyi-Asahi Beverage Holding Co., Ltd49 (investment vehicle of the Group that holds the Group's beverage business in mid-2016),50 Tingyi Holdings is only entitled to its proportional share of earnings from the beverage business.
  • Other assumptions:
    • instant foods breakeven
    • no other income
    • no contribution from associates.

We would then arrive at a shareholders' profit of about US$350 million.

At market capitalisation of US$5 billion, Tingyi was valued at 14 times our estimated earnings in mid-2016.

Tingyi-Asahi Beverage Holding Co., Ltd (“TAB”) Valuation    As part of the strategic alliance, PepsiCo has a call option to increase their indirect stake in TAB from 5% to 20%. We will look at this through the lens of PepsiCo. The exercise price is based on a US$15 billion valuation of TAB if this option was exercised in 2013. This valuation would increase 15% annually until 2015, translating to a valuation of US$20 billion for 100% of TAB. 51

From how we looked at it, this valuation seems to be on the rich side.52 Given the reduced profitability in its beverage operations in recent years, we could take a wild stab and apply a 70% haircut to Tingyi Holdings’ diluted stake of 40% in TAB. This added up to about USD2-3 billion.

With just 10 times P/E the company’s cash cow of its instant noodles arm, a value of US$3 billion was estimated. In total, Tingyi Holdings' instant noodles and beverage arm could possibly be estimated at US$5-6 billion. In June 2016, Tingyi had a market capitalisation of US$5 billion.

Share Repurchase    In 2015, Tingyi Holdings repurchased 1.2 million of their shares at an average price of HKD13.84, the first such exercise in at least the past five years. This was when the company had a market capitalisation of over HKD70 billion (US$9–10 billion). In June 2016, Tingyi had a market capitalisation of US$5 billion.

Conclusion   In our three estimations, we did not factor in much growth for the company. This was to demonstrate the versatility of the margin of safety approach.

Additionally, the key point behind using three separate indicators was an internal check to find out if any of our estimates was too out of line.

CASE STUDY Growth in Cyclicality – First Resources Limited

Established in 1992 and listed on the Singapore Exchange since 2007, First Resources Limited (“First Resources”), with planted area of 207,575 hectares,53 was among the leaders in the palm oil industry. But wait, what exactly is palm oil?

Palm-based products are literally everywhere. A walk around your nearby supermarket would surprise you how much palm oil is used. From Singapore's Gardenia bread and Japan's Nissin instant noodles to Mars Incorporated's M&Ms, Mondelez International's Oreo cookies and even Unilever N.V.'s Skippy peanut butter, all have some form of palm oil in their products. In 2012, four vegetable oils – palm, rapeseed, sunflower and soybean – made up 76% of the world's vegetable oil production, with palm oil being the most efficient vegetable oil. One hectare of oil palm plantation can produce up to ten times more oil than other leading oilseed crops!54

Oil palm cultivation is not rocket science, and due to its requirement for manual labour, oil palm cultivation has not changed drastically over the past few decades. However, better agronomy practices have improved productivity over the past decade. Palm oil cultivation is a front-end-loaded investment with significant capital required at the start. On average, a well-managed commercial estate could break even in about 7–8 years.

Oil palm tree is a perennial crop with an economic lifespan of 25 years.55 It starts yielding fruit about three years after planting.

The four main stages of an oil palm tree are:56

  • immature: 0–3 years
  • young: 4–7 years
  • prime: 8–17 years
  • tall: ≥ 18 years.

In 1991, world production of palm oil was 11.5 million metric tonnes (“tonnes”).57 In 2012, palm oil production more than quadrupled to 55.3 million tonnes, with Indonesia and Malaysia contributing towards 86% of the global production.58 Fun-fact: The sweet spot for planting oil palms is ten degrees latitude to the north and south of the equator. Latitude-wise, it's from the tip of East Malaysia to the bottom of Java, Indonesia.59 Thus, it is no surprise that these two countries have consistently been the leaders of the palm oil industry.

In 2011, it was estimated that approximately 77% of crude palm oil (“CPO”) and about 28% of crude palm kernel oil derivatives worldwide were used for edible products.60 With over seven billion people today (2016),61 palm oil plays a huge role in mitigating global food concerns.

Type of Value   Cyclical play with growth potential.

Screening – How We Ended Up with This Company

  • Food demand globally: The growing global population.
  • Depressed underlying commodity price: CPO prices on a decline since 2012.62
  • CPO upstream players: Companies with largest exposure to CPO movements.
  • Bursa Malaysia and Singapore Exchange listed companies: Most of the largest palm oil companies are listed on these two bourses.

With so many Asian-listed CPO-related companies, how and why did we end up with just one? For this case study, we thought it would be useful to run through our thought process. To start with, we limited our scope to players with plantings above 100,000 hectares. Why so?

To spread out fixed costs, commodity businesses need economies of scale. Based on our estimation, a company with mature planted area of 100,000 hectares could potentially deliver about US$200–300 million (assuming CPO yield of 4 tonnes/hectare at US$650/tonne) in revenue, a rather substantial amount. In 2015, Malaysia-listed Sime Darby Berhad and Singapore-listed Golden Agri-Resources Limited led the pack, with planted area of 605,046 hectares63 and 485,606 hectares64 respectively.

Next, we narrowed our focus onto companies with the bulk of their operations involving producing CPO, especially those with significant contributions from upstream operations – namely, players with significant contributions from other agriculture operations like Singapore-listed Wilmar International Limited and Golden Agri-Resources Limited, and companies with significant downstream contributions like Malaysia-listed IOI Corporation Berhad. And lastly, conglomerates like Malaysia-listed Sime Darby Berhad and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad were also left out.

After screening, we ended up with just a few companies, like Bumitama Agri Limited and First Resources, companies with good operational track records. We dare say these few companies are more manageable compared to our initial list of 10–15 companies.

What's Interesting?   In First Resources' case, these four points stood out for us:

  1. Operational and financial efficiency
  2. Management and structure
  3. Commodity prices
  4. Scalable growth runway

Operational and Financial Efficiency    Other than having economies of scale, commodity operators must be efficient. Simply put, companies with high yield and a low-cost base are qualities of a well-managed upstream operation.

For productivity, let us start from talking about the fresh fruit bunches (“FFB”) yield. FFB is the term used for the harvested fruits of an oil palm plantation. FFB yield refers to the fruits produced on a per hectare basis, measured in tonnes per hectare. For landlords, a measure of productivity is the occupancy rate, the higher the better. This concept also applies to FFB yield. In our opinion, a five-year record is a decent timespan to get an idea of how good a company is at planning, planting and harvesting its plantation. Given that these plants are in their ecological sweet spot, their yields shouldn't stray too far from the average.

Additionally, we must also consider the age profile of the estates. For instance, an estate with trees in their prime yielding 20 tonnes/hectare per year is decent. On the other hand, an estate in its prime only delivering 15 tonnes/hectare may not be ideal. The thing about palm oil cultivation is that its yields are rather consistent and, notwithstanding bad weather conditions, good practices tend to lead to sustainable results. But on the other hand, a mistake like poor planting could lead to years of regret; once the tree is in the ground, you have to wait for another 25 years.

From First Resources' FFB yields in Table 9.4, it looked to be a company with “good practices and sustainable results”. From our analysis, much of its drop in production post-2012 was attributable to unfavourable weather conditions, new mature areas and acquisitions of external poorly managed plantations.

Table 9.4: First Resources Limited's FFB Yield

FY End 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FFB Yield (tonnes/ha) 22.2 23.0 18.7 18.7 19.0

The second thing we look at when analysing a palm oil producer is its cost structure. In this business, it definitely pays to be a low-cost producer. Generally, the larger the planted area and the higher the productivity, the better you are able to spread out your fixed costs. At its core, productivity in the palm oil plantation industry is measured in terms of its FFB and CPO yield. For instance, 10,000 hectares with FFB yield of 20 tonnes/hectare could yield about 200,000 tonnes of FFB in a year. If the same 10,000 hectares yielded only 10 tonnes/hectare, you might only end up with 100,000 tonnes of FFB. Yet, from a fixed-cost point of view, these 100,000 tonnes of FFB cost you much more, given that your cost of operating the estate is about the same in both cases. We focus on FFB because if a company takes good care of their upstream, the rest should fall into place.

In 2015, First Resources reported a unit cash cost of CPO nucleus production of US$204/tonne on an ex-mill basis.65 At the lowest point in the past five years (2012–2017), monthly CPO prices were in the range of US$450–500/tonne.66 Even if we took the entire operating expense, we estimate operating cost to be below US$450/tonne. Note: Always remember production cost per tonne is based on the tonnage.

Management and Structure    When we analyse the management, we like to see “management walking the talk”, meaning that they consistently deliver on their targets. For upstream palm oil operators, one way to look at this is from their plantings schedule. We can view it from the perspective of their planted area targets and age profile.

In their 2012 Annual Report, First Resources aimed to expand through new plantings of 15,000 to 20,000 hectares per year, with a target of 200,000 hectares of oil palm within the next five years67 (around 2017–2018).

At the rate First Resources is going (Table 9.5), they look to be able to achieve 200,000 hectares of planted area from just their nucleus plantings. From their track record, First Resource's planting game looked strong. In 2016, First Resources reported a weighted average age of nine years, and a balanced age profile in all four stages (Immature: 29%, Young: 27%, Prime: 23% and Old: 21%)68 showed good planning by the management.

Table 9.5: First Resources Limited's Planted Area

FY End 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total 132,251 146,403 170,596 194,567 207,575
Nucleus – Total 113,143 125,805 148,727 165,936 178,338
Nucleus – Mature 74,704 85,888 104,493 114,377 128,042
Nucleus – Immature 38,439 39,917 44,234 51,559 50,296

Next, we also need to pay attention to the company's structure, the more straightforward the better. We compared the company structure of First Resources to two other Singapore-listed oil palm companies. Looking at their non-controlling interest to total equity in 2015, Bumitama Agri Limited, First Resources and Indofood Agri Resources Limited reported 8.6%,69 4.8%70 and 40.7%71 respectively. In Indofood Agri Resources Limited's case, this meant that 40.7% of the Group's assets do not belong to its equityholders.

Among the three, First Resources looked to have the most straightforward structure. In Indofood Agri Resources Limited's case, they had a significant portion of non-controlling interest as they were required to consolidate non-wholly-owned entities like their 72.6% stake in their publicly listed subsidiary Indonesia-listed PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk. As the financial statements of a company with high non-controlling interest might be challenging for investors to understand, we prefer companies with a straightforward structure, because, as minority shareholders, it is always good to keep things simple.

Commodity Prices    For a commodity producer, there are two main ways of increasing its revenue:

  • controllable factor – increase in production
  • uncontrollable factor – increase in the underlying commodity prices.

As we explained in the previous section, First Resources was actively expanding its production. Therefore, we will devote this section to the uncontrollable side of commodity linked companies. No matter how one spins this tale, companies involved in the commodities business are always exposed to the price effects of the underlying commodity.

Here was how the average monthly CPO price looked from 1996 to 2016:72

  • 1996–2000 = USD439/tonne
  • 2001–2005 = USD362/tonne
  • 2006–2010 = USD701/tonne
  • 2011–2015 = USD817/tonne.

Considering just the period from 2010 to 2016 alone, monthly CPO prices fluctuated between US$483 and 1,249/tonne.73 Although no investors can accurately predict CPO prices consistently, we still do need to understand the supply and demand relationship for CPO prices. But why?

Think of the underlying commodity price as a multiplier for a commodity producer. Just for illustration, assume you need $1 to produce 1 tonne of CPO. Taking all things as constant, if 1 tonne of CPO can fetch $2, your profit would be $1, giving you a profit margin of 50%. On the other hand, if the price of CPO is $3 per tonne, you would arrive at a profit of $2 or a profit margin of 66%!

Although we are unable to accurately catch the bottom, there are price levels we felt comfortable with. Back during late 2014 to early 2015, CPO prices caught our attention when prices fluctuated around US$500/tonne. However, our consideration was based on other more reasonable factors that pointed towards prices bottoming:

  • New plantings in the industry appeared to be slowing down
  • Higher-cost players were under pressure at these price levels
  • Recent consolidation among key industry players:
    • Sime Darby Berhad's acquisition of New Britain Palm Oil Limited74
    • Felda Global Ventures Berhad acquisition of Asian Plantations Limited75
    • Privatisation of Tradewinds Plantation Berhad76
    • IOI Corporation Berhad's acquisition of Unico-Desa Plantations Berhad.77

At the end of the day, we should not just depend on commodity prices to make our decision. The company we invest in still has to have value financially. However, the best time to start investing in a cyclical industry like commodity is during a time of weakness. In Howards Marks' The Most Important Thing Illuminated, he highlighted The Poor Man's Guide to Market Assessment.78 In this short test, Howard Marks established a simple exercise that might help us to take the market sentiment of the current markets. And if you find that most of your ticks are in the left-hand column, you might want to be more conservative. Table 9.6 shows a short excerpt of the exercise.

Table 9.6: Howard Marks' The Most Important Thing Illuminated's Checklist

Market Sentiment Bullish Bearish
Economy Vibrant Sluggish
Outlook Positive Negative
Lenders Eager Reticent
Capital Markets Loose Tight
Capital Plentiful Scarce
Terms Easy Restrictive
Interest Rates Low High

At the end of the day, it does not mean that if we can figure out where we stand in a cycle, we will know exactly what will happen next. But it does help not to get caught up in the midst of any irrational exuberance or a market bubble when it is taking place.

Scalable Growth Runway    After discussing about the uncontrollable, let's end this section with the controllable factors. In the palm oil business, there are generally two ways to increase production:

  • increasing planted area
  • increasing yields from oil palms approaching prime age.

And we like players which excel in both areas.

First, planters can grow by increasing their planted area. No land means no crops, which translates to no money. As good (location and price) plantation land appears to be getting scarce in the market, we are looking for companies with sizeable unplanted land. What do we mean by the ability to increase their planted area? Here are two scenarios:

  • Plantation A: planted area of 100 hectares, with 200 hectares unplanted
  • Plantation B: planted area of 200 hectares, with 100 hectares unplanted.

Even with identical land of 300 hectares, Plantation A could potentially increase its earnings by 200% compared to Plantation B's 50%.

In 2015, First Resources produced 687,248 tonnes of CPO. With the company's total nucleus planted area of 178,338 hectares (inclusive of 50,296 hectares of immature nucleus planted area),79 First Resources looked to have both the resources and the expertise to achieve a CPO production of 1 million tonnes between 2017 and 2018.

Next, our focus is on the plantation's average age profile. This follows the concept of being vested before the upcycle of production after its tree matures. As the prime age for an oil palm is from 7 to 18, we prefer estates closer to the age of 10 rather than 20, to allow us to enjoy the upswing in production. With over 56% of plantings in the young and immature stage,80 First Resources has one of the youngest age profiles in the region, positioning it well for strong production growth over the next few years as its trees mature.

Major Shareholders (14 March 2016)81    Eight Capital Inc.: 63.18%

Valuation   From 2010 to 2016, monthly average CPO prices fluctuated between US$483 and 1,249/tonne. If anything, this demonstrated the difficulty in forecasting CPO prices. As we said, predicting CPO prices is not part of our repertoire, and we will not try to do that. However, when it comes to such companies, commodity prices cannot be completely avoided. For this example, we will assume CPO to be in the range of US$600–700/tonne.

Our key assumptions are:

  • CPO continues to be in demand
  • Planted area doesn’t vanish overnight

Now let us go back in time to 2013, with 148,727 hectares of nucleus plantings (30% immature) and an average age profile of eight years.82 This meant that First Resources could:

  • increase planted area significantly
  • expect increase in yields when plantings mature.

These two factors have provided us with a margin of safety in our calculation. To put it simply, increase in planted area and yields lead to higher production. This could mitigate potential drops in CPO prices. Furthermore, growth can also provide us with a margin of safety. Fast forward to 2016, and First Resources seems to be very much on track with its target of 200,000 hectares of oil palm, corresponding to 1 million tonnes of CPO.

Let us assume the following:

  • CPO price of US$600–700/tonne
  • CPO production cost (with overheads) of US$300–400/tonne.

This might result in an operating profit in a believable range of US$300–400/tonne. With 1 million tonne CPO, this adds up to USD300–400 million. After deducting interest expense of USD20 million (FY2015 interest expense USD22 million) and a tax rate of 25% (corporate tax rate for companies in Singapore and Indonesia is 17% and 25% respectively),83 it might be possible to expect net profit to be in the range of US$200–300 million. Now if we assume a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times, this means that the company could be valued somewhere between US$2.4–3.6 billion. And back in June 2015 and June 2016,84 the market was pricing the company near the low end of our estimation.

Keep in mind that we were not even considering possible profits from its downstream operations and other operations. You could also think of this as an extension of the margin of safety principle. Moreover, we are not even considering the upside to CPO prices.

Conclusion   At the end of the day, companies in the commodities business are still exposed to the effects of the underlying commodity, and other factors beyond one's control. And this might be a key reason behind why many are not keen on investments in commodity related companies. Due to that, we must remember the concept of having a margin of safety.

CASE STUDY Special Situation – Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co., Limited

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company Limited (“Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company”) is part of the Dalian Wanda group of companies, one of the largest conglomerates in China. Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company is the property arm of the group and it operates more than 142 shopping complexes named “Wanda Plaza” and also more than 79 luxury hotels around China in 2016.85

Type of Value   Substantial gap between its market price and the buyout offer after the offer was announced.

Screening – How We Ended Up with This Company   By reading the news. We kid you not.

We came across Hong Kong-listed Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company simply by reading the news or, more accurately, when the news of its privatisation offer surfaced in public domain. In June 2016, this buyout saga was all over the newspapers.

What's Interesting?   This is a case study on a special situation type of investment that only lasted for two months. Normally, such a short investment duration hints at a speculative venture. However, if Mr Market feels very generous, even a one-day holding period matters not. As long as the reasoning and analysis makes sense, we can tip our hats to Mr Market and gladly take it. In fact, a shorter time horizon for this type of investment works to our benefit.

Investments based on special situations typically involve some form of major corporate actions taking place in a company. Examples of corporate actions may include, but are not limited to: mergers and acquisitions, privatisation, rights issue, private placement, spin-off, carve-outs or the pay-out of a special dividend. Other than corporate actions, possible scenarios could include positive events like the company being one of the front runners in the bid for a major project or negative events like lawsuits against the company.

In essence, any major event happening to a company that can significantly alter its value can be considered a special situation. If you discover that the market might be mispricing the company with respect to the probability of the event happening, you might be able to benefit from such opportunities.

This opportunity came about when Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company announced that the company received a buyout offer from its major shareholder, Dalian Wanda Group.

The cash offer, which came on 30 May 2016, was set at HK$52.80 per share, valuing the property company at a premium of approximately 10.9% over the audited net asset value per share in the company.86 This offer came less than two years after Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at HK$48 per share.87 The share price traded about the range of HK$38.00 per share for the past few months before the offer was made public. After the offer was announced, the share price of the company shot up to around HK$47.00 per share and held at that price point.88

HK$47.00 per share was still about 11% lower than the offer price of HK$52.80 per share.

The huge gap between its share price and its offer price was attributed towards certain reports that some major shareholders, in particular, Blackrock Inc., would not approve the deal as Blackrock's entry point into the company was at a much higher price.89

However, the conclusion from our analysis was that these reports did not fully grasp the essence of the matter. Blackrock Inc. is not the beneficial owner, but the company is merely acting as a brokerage nominee for its clients. Certain media viewed Blackrock Inc. as one of the large single shareholders of the company when in fact, Blackrock merely acted as a custodian for many small investors with beneficial interest in Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company. Therefore we gathered that Blackrock Inc. would not have the voting power to prevent the deal from going through.

Moreover, looking at the shareholder structure of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company, apart from Dalian Wanda Group's stake in the company, the remaining ownership was concentrated among ten shareholders. The H shares only account for about 14% of the outstanding stock.90 Of the listed shares, about half are owned by 11 minority shareholders, who mostly entered at IPO prices.91

Here lies the puzzle. If we were to place ourselves in Dalian Wanda Group's shoes, it seems highly unlikely that we would announce our offer without first consulting the views of the remaining major shareholders. With such a small number of major shareholders, we believed preliminary discussions would have already been ongoing before Dalian Wanda Group came out with the final offer. In any case, even after it was reported that China Life Insurance Company Limited – one of the largest shareholders of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company's H shares – provided a letter of intent favouring the privatisation plan on 25 July 2016,92 market prices were still below HK$48 the very next day.93

Thus, although the market appeared to be convinced that the privatisation would have some issues, we viewed the situation from another perspective. Due to the reporting on the shareholder status of Blackrock Inc. and the small number of major shareholders, we felt that the probability of the buyout was quite high. For us, the kicker was the major shareholders in Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company. If we took a closer look at the company's “Interest and Short Positions of substantial shareholders in shares and underlying shares”, it was stated that Citigroup Inc. and BlackRock, Inc. were in fact not listed as beneficial owners.94

Major Shareholder

Domestic Shares (30 May 2016)95

  • Dalian Wanda Group Co., Ltd: 43.71%
  • Wang Jianlin: 7.37%.

H Shares (31 December 2015)96

  • China Life Insurance Company Limited: 7.42%
  • Kuwait Investment Authority: 7.42%
  • Citigroup Inc.: 6.58%
  • BlackRock, Inc.: 5.99%

Valuation   With the information at hand, we could then work out our risk and reward on this investment. As mentioned before, if we invested and the deal went through, we stood a chance of gaining about 11%. If the buyout was unsuccessful, the share price of the company might fall. Since the overall market was already recovering during that period, we assumed that the share price of the company might also fall around 10–15% if the deal did not go through.

Our key assumptions are:

  • No other regulatory concerns
  • Odds of deal going though > Odds of deal not going through

So, the risk and reward for this investment were evenly split. Our confidence that the chance of the buyout was way more than 50% gave us the incentive to make an investment in the company. This is because there looked to be a much higher chance of us gaining 12% than losing around 10% to 15%.

Conclusion   By August 2016, Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company's H-share shareholders eventually voted for the company to be bought out and we walked away with a healthy profit.

If you have been following our analysis, we have to make quite a few assumptions for these types of special situation plays.

Here are the assumptions we made:

  1. It is highly unlikely that the Dalian Wanda Group would make such an offer without preliminary discussions with major shareholders.
  2. In the event of an unsuccessful offer, the share price will only fall by 10% to 15%.
  3. The probability of a buyout is more than 50%.

Although it panned out for us this time round, we are clearly aware that nothing is a sure thing. At the end of the day, assumptions are still assumptions. There is always the possibility that things will not pan out as we expected. Thus, we need to be conscious of our portfolio sizing for special situations.

Another key aspect of such an investment is that we must be disciplined in the time frame of the investment. We invest because we expect a certain event to occur. If Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Company was not taken private by the offer and the share price fell, we should exit the investment regardless of the losses. If we held on to the investment in the hope of recovering some money in the future, it would be against our investment process and that would have drastic negative implications on our investments in the long run.

If we keep holding on to the investments that did not pan out, hoping to recover some losses, then eventually our whole portfolio will be filled with investments that we are unhappy about, rather than investments that we are optimistic about.

CASE STUDY High Growth (The Land of Fast-Growing Unicorns) – Tencent Holdings Limited

Tencent Holdings Limited (“Tencent Holdings”) is one of the largest internet companies in China.97 Together with Baidu Inc and Alibaba Group, these three companies are commonly known as BAT in China.98

Tencent Holdings is the owner of famous applications with a massive user base in China, such as QQ and WeChat. QQ is the main gaming social media network in China and WeChat is the main internet messaging application in the country, like Whatsapp or Facebook Messenger. In 2015, the company reported close to 850 million active accounts in QQ and 700 million active accounts in WeChat.99

Tencent Holdings has four main streams of revenue:

  • online games
  • social networks
  • online advertising
  • ecommerce transactions.

Tencent Holdings is still managed by its founder, and also its current Chief Executive Officer, Mr Ma Huateng. Mr Ma is also one of the largest shareholders of the company, with a 9.1% stake100 in the HK$1.9 trillion company (October 2016).101

Type of Value   Huge growth potential.

Screening – How We Ended Up with This Company

  • Technology – the next revolution
  • Multi-bagger potential
  • Profitable technology company in China
  • Not overleveraged.

We narrowed our screen to filter for fast-growing companies based in China by restricting our search universe to the two Chinese exchanges and the Hong Kong exchange.

Some criteria on our list are companies which have seen strong growth over the past decade in:

  • revenue
  • operating profit and operating margin
  • earnings per share
  • free cash flow.

It is very important to look at all four factors. First, the revenue line tells us that the company is growing its business. Next, the operating profit and operating margin indicates whether the company can grow its business without hurting its margins. With both factors assured, the earnings per share reveals whether the company is growing without diluting shareholders. And finally, the growth in free cash flow allows us to determine whether the company is capable of increasing their free cash inflow.

After going through these four factors, we are left with the final hurdle – leverage. Our last check is on the debt level of the company. This is done to ensure that the company is not growing by using excessive leverage. Once that is out of the way, we should be left with a list of companies that are worth our time to do a deeper analysis on.

What's Interesting?   For Tencent Holdings, we will be focusing on these three factors:

  1. High growth potential
  2. Already free cash flow-generative
  3. High future optionality

High Growth Potential    We have all heard stories of investors invested in companies which gave them ultra-high returns. Investors who have been invested in well-known companies such as Apple Inc, Microsoft Corporation, 3M Company and Procter & Gamble Company since the early days would have seen their returns in multiple folds of their capital.

Interestingly, we are also able to find such companies in Asia too. The share price of Shanghai-listed Kweichow Moutai Company Limited has also increased more than 5,600% August 2001 to February 2017.102

All these companies have one thing in common. They have demonstrated strong growth for years, even decades! So, if we want to find such companies to invest in, we have to focus on one key concept – growth potential, the potential for fast growth.

Already Free Cash Flow Generative    What makes Tencent Holdings stand out from other companies with huge growth potential is that the company is already very much profitable, even at this point of their growth.

From our preliminary screening, Hong Kong-listed Tencent Holdings – one of the largest internet companies in China – stood out because the company demonstrated very strong growth and is even growing its free cash flow at a significant rate. On top of that, it hardly has any debt on its balance sheet. The company also has a long history as a listed company, with its growth prospects looking better by the day.

Tencent Holdings earns its revenue through two major avenues, Value-added Services (“VAS”) and online advertising. Its services such as QQ or WeChat have some free features for users, but they also have many value-added services that users can buy to enhance the whole social network experience.

VAS contributed towards 78% and 85% of the company's revenue and gross profit respectively in 2015. Tencent Holdings also generates income from allowing users or companies to place an advertisement on their platform. In the same year, online advertising contributed 17% and 14% of revenue and gross profit respectively.103

Tencent Holdings also saw amazing growth in the past decade. Its revenue and net profit have increased from just RMB3 billion and RMB1 billion in 2006104 to RMB103 billion and RMB29 billion in 2015.105 That represents a compounded growth of 43.4% and 40.1% in revenue and net profit over the past decade respectively. No matter how you interpret it, we have to say that we are impressed.

Since its initial public offering in 2004, the company has returned more than 25,700% return to shareholders based on the increase of its share price up to March 2017.106 Moreover, the business had also substantially grown its free cash flow over the past decade.

Huge Future Optionality    Even though the company has seen such tremendous growth, its prospects are still very bright. With such a large gaming community within its social media network, Tencent Holdings is the partner of choice of many international gaming companies with plans of entering the Chinese market. The company's plan is simple, yet very effective:

  • Attract users to partner platforms.
  • Increase products and services.
  • This in turn attracts more users to partner platforms – a virtuous cycle.

One such partner is none other than Electronic Arts Inc. – one of the largest gaming producers in the world. Electronic Arts Inc. have a partnership with Tencent Holdings to distribute their games in China, which have been translated and tailored for Chinese consumers.107,108 Other than games, Tencent has also made headway into the live and on-demand video arena, with the National Basketball Association (“NBA”) extending their partnership with Tencent Holdings as NBA's exclusive official digital partner in China for five years.109

In addition, Tencent Holdings is already adding other services and content onto its two social networks. A range of services the company provides include:110

  • community portal
  • emails
  • RTX – enterprise messenger
  • security software mobile
  • Tencent mobile application store
  • mobile browser
  • media player
  • online payment
  • music portal
  • video streaming
  • sports streaming
  • mobile video
  • digital publishing
  • WeChat digital stores.

Other than these services that it is developing to add to its existing ecosystems, Tencent Holdings is also one of the biggest venture capital investors in China.111 Most notably, Tencent Holdings is an investor in Didi Chuxing,112 the main ride-hailing company in China, and JD.com,113 the second-largest e-commerce retailer in China. In 2016, Tencent made one of its largest investments with an acquisition of up to 84% of Supercell Oy. This transaction valued Supercell OY at USD10.2 billion.114

In short, we concluded that Tencent Holdings is far from running out of growth opportunities. In fact, the contrary is true; the company's avenues of growth are seemingly endless!

In summary, if you are looking to invest in the likes of Facebook, Inc., Netflix, Inc., Paypal Holdings Inc, Electronic Arts Inc., Activision Blizzard, Inc. or Alphabet Inc (Google) etc., why not just try Tencent Holdings?

Key Risks   The huge selection of growth areas in the company can by itself become a risk. The company needs to be selective on where it focuses its resources in fueling its future growth. If the company starts to overstretch its resources, it might damage the business instead.

Other than diworsification (a phrase coined by Peter Lynch),115 another key risk of the company stood out. Given that the company operates in a sensitive industry in China and that it is one of the largest companies in the industry, there is a risk of more regulations in the future if the government attempts to limit Tencent Holdings' influence in China.

There are precedents in the United States of America concerning regulatory intervention. In the past, Microsoft Corporation was almost broken up by regulators in the United States after being accused of monopolistic practices.

Given that Tencent Holdings operates mainly in China, has a huge influence on the Chinese population and China has very strict censorship requirements, increased regulations are certainly a risk for the company.

Major Shareholders (31 December 2015)116

  • Naspers Limited: 33.51%
  • Ma Huateng: 9.1%

Valuation – The Elephant in The Room   Yet, there is an elephant in the room when we are analysing the company. In late 2016, Tencent Holdings traded at around 50 times earnings, and only offered a dividend yield of 0.2%.117 No matter how you look at it, the valuation of the company seemed rather steep – not your traditional kind of a value stock.

Our key assumptions are:

  • Continued acceptance of new technology
  • Continued ability to grow and monetise ecosystem

This characteristic tends to occur in many fast-growth companies. Interestingly, it might not even be that big an issue. That is because with its fast growth, there is a possibility that Tencent Holdings can grow into its valuation, and then some. Being a value investor does not just mean that you only look at companies that trade at a P/E ratio of less than 10 times. Growth is also a form of margin of safety. Even Benjamin Graham appeared to think so. In Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's The Intelligent Investor,118 they wrote: “Thus the growth-stock approach may supply as dependable a margin of safety as is found in the ordinary investment provided the calculation of the future is conservatively made, and provided it shows a satisfactory margin in relation to the price paid.”

In Tencent Holdings' case, a P/E ratio of 50 times was not its peak P/E ratio. The company saw its P/E ratio peak during 2007, even before the great financial crisis. During that period, its P/E reached more than 100 times! And even if an investor invested right at the peak, the total return from the investment between 2007 and late 2016 would still be around 1,600%.119 This is an example of where growth functions as a form of margin of safety.

That was fuelled by the fact that its revenue and net income have increased from just RMB4 billion and RMB2 billion in 2007 to RMB103 billion and RMB29 billion in 2015 respectively. With its 2015 earnings per share, its price-to-earnings for the investor based on its 2007 cost was only about 6 times. Tencent Holdings is one example of how fast-growth companies can grow into their steep valuation.

Conclusion   Fast-growing companies typically trade at higher-than-market-average valuation that depends on the company delivering on its expectations. Although it might seem obvious, we want to emphasise that because the future is never certain, future earnings are also never certain, even more so when it comes to companies with high growth expectations placed upon them.

If the growth did not pan out as expected, such companies might experience drastic falls in valuation. That is why it is important to have a diversified portfolio, as we as investors can never know which of the fast-growing companies we invested in will become the next big thing.

Notes

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