Epigraph
by Sam Bullard, Sarah Watt, Kaylyn Swankoski, Azhar Iqbal, John Silvia
Economic and Business Forecasting: Analyzing and Interpreting Econometric Results
- Cover Page
- Title Page
- Copyright
- Dedication
- Epigraph
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- CHAPTER 1: Creating Harmony Out of Noisy Data
- CHAPTER 2: First, Understand the Data
- GROWTH: HOW IS THE ECONOMY DOING OVERALL?
- PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
- GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
- GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
- NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
- REAL FINAL SALES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PURCHASES
- THE LABOR MARKET: ALWAYS A CORE ISSUE
- ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY
- DATA REVISION: A SPECIAL CONSIDERATION
- THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
- MARRYING THE LABOR MARKET INDICATORS TOGETHER
- JOBLESS CLAIMS
- INFLATION
- CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: A SOCIETY'S INFLATION BENCHMARK
- PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
- PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE DEFLATOR: THE INFLATION BENCHMARK FOR MONETARY POLICY
- INTEREST RATES: PRICE OF CREDIT
- THE DOLLAR AND EXCHANGE RATES: THE UNITED STATES IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY
- CORPORATE PROFITS
- SUMMARY
- CHAPTER 3: Financial Ratios
- CHAPTER 4: Characterizing a Time Series
- CHAPTER 5: Characterizing a Relationship between Time Series
- CHAPTER 6: Characterizing a Time Series Using SAS Software
- CHAPTER 7: Testing for a Unit Root and Structural Break Using SAS Software
- CHAPTER 8: Characterizing a Relationship Using SAS
- CHAPTER 9: The 10 Commandments of Applied Time Series Forecasting for Business and Economics
- COMMANDMENT 1: KNOW WHAT YOU ARE FORECASTING
- COMMANDMENT 2: UNDERSTAND THE PURPOSE OF FORECASTING
- COMMANDMENT 3: ACKNOWLEDGE THE COST OF THE FORECAST ERROR
- COMMANDMENT 4: RATIONALIZE THE FORECAST HORIZON
- COMMANDMENT 5: UNDERSTAND THE CHOICE OF VARIABLES
- COMMANDMENT 6: RATIONALIZE THE FORECASTING MODEL USED
- COMMANDMENT 7: KNOW HOW TO PRESENT THE RESULTS
- COMMANDMENT 8: KNOW HOW TO DECIPHER THE FORECAST RESULTS
- COMMANDMENT 9: UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF RECURSIVE METHODS
- COMMANDMENT 10: UNDERSTAND FORECASTING MODELS EVOLVE OVER TIME
- SUMMARY
- CHAPTER 10: A Single-Equation Approach to Model-Based Forecasting
- CHAPTER 11: A Multiple-Equations Approach to Model-Based Forecasting
- THE IMPORTANCE OF THE REAL-TIME SHORT-TERM FORECASTING
- THE INDIVIDUAL FORECAST VERSUS CONSENSUS FORECAST: IS THERE AN ADVANTAGE?
- THE ECONOMETRICS OF REAL-TIME SHORT-TERM FORECASTING: THE BVAR APPROACH
- FORECASTING IN REAL TIME: ISSUES RELATED TO THE DATA AND THE MODEL SELECTION
- CASE STUDY: WFC VERSUS BLOOMBERG
- SUMMARY
- APPENDIX 11A: LIST OF VARIABLES
- CHAPTER 12: A Multiple-Equations Approach to Long-Term Forecasting
- CHAPTER 13: The Risks of Model-Based Forecasting: Modeling, Assessing, and Remodeling
- CHAPTER 14: Putting the Analysis to Work in the Twenty-First-Century Economy
- BENCHMARKING ECONOMIC GROWTH
- INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: ANOTHER CASE OF STATIONARY BEHAVIOR
- EMPLOYMENT: JOBS IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
- INFLATION
- INTEREST RATES
- IMBALANCES BETWEEN BOND YIELDS AND EQUITY EARNINGS
- A NOTE OF CAUTION ON PATTERNS OF INTEREST RATES
- BUSINESS CREDIT: PATTERNS REMINISCENT OF CYCLICAL RECOVERY
- PROFITS
- FINANCIAL MARKET VOLATILITY: ASSESSING RISK
- DOLLAR
- ECONOMIC POLICY: IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. ECONOMY
- THE LONG-TERM DEFICIT BIAS AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
- SUMMARY
- APPENDIX: Useful References for SAS Users
- About the Author
- Index
If a man will begin with certainties,
he shall end in doubts,
but if he will content to begin with doubts,
he shall end in certainties.
—Francis Bacon, The Advancement of Learning1605
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