17 Observations

Observations Are Abundant

We covered the first premise component, facts, in the last chapter. The next premise component is observation. Observations consist of all we read and what we hear. We don't know observations to be absolutely true, and we haven't personally experienced them. If an observation were absolutely true, it would be a fact. When you ask someone a question, the response is your observation—most of the time.

When you read in the morning news about some daredevil riding a motorcycle over a gazillion school buses, you're making an observation. You don't know for certain he jumped those buses. If the story comes from a reliable source, it probably is true; but you can't be certain of that, and if you were not there, you didn't witness it.

Here are examples of observations:

• You read a review of a restaurant on TripAdvisor.
• You're in a product-quality review meeting, reading a report that claims that customer satisfaction is at 72 percent. You don't know where the data came from, how accurate it is, or even what the customer was rating. This statement would generate a conversation, so it's an observation.
• A weather forecaster says, “It's going to rain tomorrow.”
• Anderson Cooper on Cable News Network (CNN) says, “The president signed a new tax bill.”

Why are these observations? You don't know them to be absolutely true.

There is much confusion between facts and observations. A statement coming from a trusted source carries great weight and can easily be counted as a fact (Why would that person lie or make it up?), despite the statement being only an observation. The added weight given based on a source's reliability makes your premise component seem strong.

For example, we tend to have more faith in a statement if a close friend or relative tells us something, as opposed to just hearing it from a casual acquaintance. The source doesn't have to be a person; it could be a database, a newspaper, or the Internet. Perhaps you hear someone say, “The Earth will be impacted by an asteroid 20 miles across within the next 10 years.” You ask that person, “Where did you get that information?” and he or she replies, “I read it on the Internet at a doomsday website.” You probably would not put much stock in that statement, because you recognize the weak source of information. However, if a noted astronomer said that same thing and substantiated it with observations from his or her telescope, you'd best be looking for an underground shelter.

Despite all the confusion, distinguishing facts from observations is simple. It's a fact if you can say yes to the following question: “Is this information absolutely true, with no question, no discussion, no explanation, and no variation?” If your answer is no, and you have never experienced this event before, then it's an observation. Observations have the possibility of being true or untrue.

Observations require conversations and understanding of how accurate they are or under what circumstances they are true. Someone says, “Our customers want faster service.” Sounds like a fact, but some customers may want higher quality over faster service. It's worth having the conversation to get clear.

Suppose you say, “I own a home.” If you have a mortgage, then technically both you and your bank own the home. A conversation would occur about how much you owe. It's an observation.

Perhaps your boss says, “Our employees are motivated.” This might be the overwhelming attitude. But there may be some who are not, or there are circumstances under which they would not be. Having a conversation about those employees and circumstances will help in understanding a situation. It's an observation.

Maybe a politician says, “We have cut $10 million of spending this year.” The truth might be that although $10 million was cut, $8 million was added, so the net reduction was really $2 million. It's an observation.

Here is why it's important to distinguish observations from facts. We use facts and observations as part of our premise that leads to a conclusion for our headscratcher. Facts are black and white. Observations require additional clarity and conversation. Gaining clarity leads to a better understanding of some of the options you have to address a situation. If something happens often, you might do one thing, but if it happens rarely, you might do another. It's important to distinguish this. For example, you may say, “My chain on my bicycle always falls off.” After a discussion, this may really mean, “My chain on my bicycle falls off many times when I'm changing the front gear and going up a steep hill.” The conclusion you reach about how to fix this problem might be very different in these two circumstances.

When someone uses a term such as always, never, none, all, or every, eyebrows should rise. Statements that use these terms imply they are facts, yet often they are not. For example, “We always put the heavy equipment in that space over there.” Perhaps there are circumstances that prevent you from using the usual space; always becomes most of the time, making this an observation. Using terms such as always and never shuts down conversations because there's nothing to talk about. If it's true, it's clear, but most of the time it really isn't absolute. Make it an observation and dig a little deeper to understand the circumstances.

We'll be coming back to observations in Chapter 21, “The Conclusion: Putting It All Together.” At this point, we've covered two premise components: facts and observations. Let's take a look at the next component.