Index

  •  
  • Page numbers followed by f and t refer to figures and tables, respectively.
  • A
  • AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, 189–190, 194, 195f
  • Accelerated growth, strategies emphasizing, 162
  • Accumulation, 129
  • Active Equity Opportunity Index (AEO), 149, 150f, 153, 159, 204, 207
  • Active management, 204
    • behavioral finance and, 150–153
    • in changing market conditions, 148–150
    • factoring for, 172
    • fostering innovation with, 158
    • market capitalization and, 143–145
    • pace of markets and, 147–148, 147t
    • theme reversals and, 112
    • value-growth preferences and, 145–147
  • Active Share measure, 151–152
  • Actuaries, 101–102
  • Ader, David, 58
  • ADP report, 89
  • Advisory services, 24
  • Alternative investments, 220
  • Amazon, 16, 201
  • America Association of Individual Investors (AAII), 10, 10f. See also AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
  • AMEX Index, 177
  • Amihud, Yakov, 152
  • Annual returns, 25
  • Anomalies, 172
  • Asia, in 2020 market crash, 188
  • Asian Contagion (1998), 80, 105–106
  • AthenaInvest, 149, 161
  • Average monthly returns, 167, 167t, 169, 169t
  • B
  • Baby boomers, 69, 218, 219
  • Bailouts, 22, 76
  • Balanced funds, 103
  • Ballew, Paul, 9
  • Bank(s):
    • borrowing of reserves by, 86
    • frozen systems of, 76
    • generational views on, 58–59
    • profits of, 44
    • T-bill sales to, 74
  • Bank failures, 58
  • Bank loans, 76, 86
  • Bank of America, 49
  • Bank of Japan (BOJ), 61, 62
  • Bankruptcies, 117
  • Barron's, 13, 14, 16, 219
  • Bary, Andrew, 13
  • Bear markets (generally):
    • definition of, 4
    • market declines predicting, 105
    • market peaks and, 80, 80f
  • Bear market (11/1980-08/1982), 80f
  • Bear market (08/1987-12/1987), 80f
  • Bear market (03/2000-10/2002), 80f
  • Bear market (10/2007-03/2009), 13, 42, 80f
  • Bear Sterns, 1
  • Behavioral finance, 150–153, 173
  • Benchmark index, 152
  • “Best-idea” stock, 152
  • Beta, 27, 28
  • Beta stocks, 28, 29
  • Black-Scholes option pricing equation, 149
  • Bloomberg, 68, 124, 127
  • Bloomberg Businessweek, 59, 73, 130
  • Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit, 57
  • Bloomberg News, 13, 57, 58, 85, 127
  • Bloomberg Surveillance Radio, 7
  • Blumberg, Deborah Lynn, 77
  • Bonds:
  • Bond indexes, 19, 20f
  • Bond portfolios, 76
  • Bond yields, 62, 188–189
  • Brent crude oil, 188
  • Bullard, James, 77
  • Bull/bear ratios:
  • Bull markets (generally):
    • growth during, 30
    • identifying multiyear, 33, 33t, 34
    • investor sentiment in, 23–24
    • maximizing returns in, 171
    • pace of, 147, 147t
    • reasons for avoiding, 21–22
    • strategies in, 170, 170t, 171
  • Bull market (08/1982 to 08/1987), 7, 8, 33, 147, 147t, 170t
  • Bull market (12/1987 to 02/94), 33, 170t
  • Bull market (12/1994 to 03/2000), 8, 33, 147t, 170t
  • Bull market (09/2002 to 10/2007), 12, 13, 33, 147t, 170t
  • Bull market (03/2009 to 02/2020):
    • active management in, 147t, 150
    • bull/bear ratio in, 11
    • capital utilization in, 66
    • death of, 187
    • expansion phase in, 202
    • expectations in, 45–46
    • information technology sector in, 133
    • investor behavior in, 59–60, 153, 177, 212
    • market conditions in, 149
    • negative interest rates in, 60
    • new investors in, 16
    • P/E ratio-based investments in, 198
    • setbacks and theme reversals in, 111
    • small and large cap stock in, 145
    • S&P 500 Index in, 20
    • S&P 1500 Index in, 215, 216f
    • S&P Large-Cap 600 Index in, 145
    • stock cross-sectional standard deviation in, 149–150
    • strategies rewarded by, 27
    • superior managers in, 150
    • top performing sectors in, 28, 29, 29t
    • valuation strategy in, 170t
  • Bull market (2020), 207, 219
  • Burnett, Erin, 1–3
  • Buy-and-hold approach, 35, 114, 185
  • Buybacks:
    • corporate, 125–131
    • increasing EPS with, 126
    • open-market stock, 130
    • stock prices and, 117
  • C
  • Callahan, Craig T., 21–22, 89–92, 153
  • Calpers, 13
  • Cambridge Associates, 14
  • Canon, 219
  • Capacity utilization, 64–66, 65f
  • Capital, allocation of, 130–131
  • Capital gains, 22
  • Capitalization-weighted index, 145
  • CDs, 22
  • Central banks, 61–63, 78
  • Central Value Formula, 164
  • Chan, Norman, 77
  • Checking accounts, 73
  • Chicago Board Option Exchange (CBOE), 114, 149
  • Chicago Board Option Exchange volatility index (VIX), 148–150, 204
  • China, 78–79, 108, 154, 187, 188
  • Citi Economic Surprise Index, 52, 52f, 53, 208
  • Citigroup Global Markets, 52
  • CNBC.com, 133, 200
  • CNBC Markets, 198
  • CNBC TV, 1–3, 5, 109–110, 126, 209
  • Coach, 4
  • Coal industry, 131
  • Cohen, Randy, 152
  • Commodities Research Board (CRB) Index, 19, 20f
  • Communications sector, 112, 202t
  • Competitive position strategy, 162, 173, 174, 203t, 204
  • Condon, Christopher, 85
  • Confidence Index, 16, 17, 17f, 219
  • Congress, US, 156, 189, 206
  • Consumer discretionary sector, 28, 31, 108, 111, 145, 170, 202, 202t, 205
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI):
    • around market peaks, 82, 82t–83t
    • and domestic equities returns, 19, 20f
    • and inflation, 55, 56f, 66–68, 67t
    • rate of change of, 56
    • responding to increases in, 81
    • year-over-year change in, 124, 124t
  • Consumer spending, employment and, 89, 94–95
  • Consumer staples sector, 24, 27, 111, 202t
  • Contra accounts, 125
  • Comptroller of the Currency, 76
  • Cooperman, Leon, 57
  • Corporate bonds, 127, 134
  • Corporate buybacks, 125–131
  • Corporate credit spreads, 188
  • Corporate debt, 133–137
  • Corporate earnings, 91
  • Corrections (market), 15
  • Correlation (R-square), 19, 119It, 152
  • Correlation coefficients, 180–181
  • COVID-19 pandemic, 140, 187, 188, 193, 201
  • Cox, Jeff, 133
  • Coy, Peter, 130
  • Cramer, Jim, 163
  • Cremers, Martijn, 151–152
  • Cross-sectional skewness, 49, 148, 150
  • Cross-sectional standard deviation, 148
  • CRT Capital Group LLC, 58
  • Cuban Missile Crisis, 18
  • Currency, in money supply, 73
  • D
  • Dartmouth University, 13
  • Data surprises, 52
  • Debt/EBITDA ratio, of S&P 500 Index companies, 136, 136f
  • Debt/equity ratio, of S&P 500 Index, 135, 135f, 136
  • Debt/total assets ratio, 134, 134f
  • Default, fears of, 188–189
  • Deficit, 213
  • Deflation, 22, 24, 117, 123–125
  • Deighan, Dan, 1–3
  • Deighan Financial Advisors, 1–2
  • Demand, supply and, 62
  • Demand deposits, 73
  • Discounts, in volatility events, 110
  • Discount Window, 75, 86, 205
  • Disinflation, 55, 58
  • Diversification, 165
  • Double bottom, 197, 213
  • Double-dip recession, 24, 48–49, 98, 117, 123
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average, 125
  • Down Days:
    • in market rally (2020), 207–208
    • in multiyear bull markets, 32–35
  • G
  • Gains, feelings regarding, 217–218
  • General Motors, 1
  • Germany, 49, 61
  • Global debt, 24
  • Global economy, 63
  • Global recession (2008-2009), 49, 51
  • Gold, 19, 20f, 22
  • Gongloff, Mark, 56–57
  • Goods:
  • Gorman, Larry, 148
  • Government deficit, 213
  • Government notes, 58
  • Goyenko, Ruslan, 152
  • Graham, Benjamin, 164
  • Great Depression, 58–59, 125
  • Great Recession, 76
  • Greece, sovereign debt for, 22
  • Griffith, Bill, 109
  • Gross domestic product (GDP):
    • in 2009 market crash, 1
    • around market peaks, 81–82, 82t–83t
    • quarter-over-quarter growth in, 47–50, 48f, 50f
    • year-over-year growth in, 50, 51, 51f
  • Growth. See also Future growth strategy
    • accelerating, 162
    • in earnings and revenue, 117, 131–133
    • economic, 47, 86
    • in monetary supply, 205, 206f
    • quarter-over-quarter, 47
    • sustainable, 162
  • Growth stocks, 145–147, 146f
  • H
  • Haines, Mark, 1
  • Half empty-partly cloudy investors, 219–220
  • Harvard University, 13
  • Haunss, Kristen, 133
  • Health care sector, 170, 202t
  • Hedge funds, 14, 163
  • Hennion & Walsh firm, 89
  • High-beta sectors, 201
  • High-beta stocks, 29
  • High-grade bonds, 16, 188
  • Home schooling, 213
  • Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 77
  • Howard, C. Thomas, 149, 153, 204
  • Human behavior, 44, 177–186
    • in 3/2009-2/2020 bull market, 177, 184
    • economic forecasting and, 179–184
    • short sellers, 177–179
  • Hunan Seafood Wholesale Market, 187
  • I
  • Ibbotson & Associates, 25
  • ICON Advisers, Inc., 123
    • 2009 Portfolio Update, 40
    • 2010 Portfolio Update, 126–129
    • 2020 Portfolio Update, 192, 214
    • database of, 27t, 28, 83, 122
    • on deflation, 123
    • on inflation and unemployment, 97
    • intrinsic value calculations by, 31, 110
    • Market Value/Price ratio of, 211
    • mutual fund management by, 103
    • on rallies, 34
    • valuation readings from, 49, 118
  • Incorrections (market), 15
  • Index-based ETFs, 154, 158
  • Indexes. See also specific indexes
    • benchmark, 152
    • bond, 19, 20f
    • capitalization-weighted, 145
    • factor-tilted, 173
    • P/E ratios for, 118
    • performance of mutual funds vs., 172
  • Index funds, 156–158
  • Index indexing, see Passive investing
  • Industrial sector, 108, 111, 145, 202, 202t
  • Inflation, 55–71, 77
    • in 1970s, 58, 64
    • after recessions, 66–68
    • and avoiding bull markets, 22
    • buybacks causing, 126
    • and capacity utilization, 64–66
    • deficit and, 213
    • fears of, 24, 123
    • Federal Reserve targets for, 77
    • global, 77
    • and long-term interest rates, 70
    • low, 84, 85, 95
    • and monetary policy, 73
    • in multiyear bull markets, 59–60
    • preventing, 50
    • resource allocation and, 130, 154–155
    • in small countries, 78, 79
    • and T-bills, 84
    • and unemployment, 95–98
    • and velocity of money, 68–69
  • Information, access to, 156
  • Information technology sector, 31, 108, 111, 133, 145, 157, 170, 202, 202t, 205
  • Initial public offerings (IPOs), 131
  • Innovation, 158
  • Insider trading, 156
  • Installed productive capacity, 65
  • Insurance companies, 102
  • Interest rates, 55–57, 101–104
    • in bull markets, 22
    • deficit and, 213
    • long-term, 70, 138
    • low, 63, 69–71, 76, 84–85
    • negative, 24, 60–63
    • rationality and normalcy of, 185
    • rising, 24, 59
    • risk-free, 149
    • short-term, 57, 138
    • and stock prices, 122
  • Intermediate-grade bonds, 16
  • Intuitive-based forecasting, 179–182
  • Inverted yield curve, 117, 137–140
  • Investment Company Fact Book, 7
  • Investment Company Institute (ICI), 7
  • Investment strategy(-ies), 161–175. See also specific strategies; specific types
    • in 2020 market rally, 203t
    • average monthly returns by, 167, 167t, 169, 169t
    • classification of, 165–166
    • defined, 161
    • economic conditions and effectiveness of, 162, 167, 169, 174, 203, 204
    • historical performance of, 167–171, 203, 203t, 204
    • and history of factor use, 171–172
    • standard deviation based on, 168, 168t
    • and unloved bull markets, 174
  • Investor sentiment, 10–12
    • at 2020 market peak, 189–190
    • in 2020 market rally, 211–212, 211f
    • after 2020 market crash, 191–192
    • in bull markets, 4, 23–24
    • of half empty-partly cloudy investors, 219–220
  • Iraq, 105, 217
  • J
  • Jackson, Robert, 130
  • Jaffe, Chuck, 5
  • Jasinski, Nicholas, 14
  • Journal of Investment Management Consulting, 153
  • L
  • Labor unions, 97
  • Late Show with David Letterman (TV show), 22, 213
  • Lehman Brothers, 1
  • Letterman, David, 22, 213
  • Leverage, 131, 132t
  • Li, Yun, 198
  • Lincoln Investment Planning, 216
  • Lindblad, Christina, 73
  • Linear regression, 180–182
  • Loans, 76, 86
  • Long-term bonds, 44
  • Long-term debt, 134
  • Long-term interest rates, 70, 138
  • Losses, feelings regarding, 217–218
  • Low beta sectors, 201–202
  • LPGA, 189
  • Lynch, Peter, 116
  • M
  • M1:
  • Macroeconomic forecasting, 162
  • Mad Money (TV show), 163
  • Mahn, Kevin, 89
  • Managed Volatility variable annuity, 102–103
  • Market bottoms, 146, 214
  • Market capitalization, 46, 143
  • Market conditions strategy, 163, 169, 171, 174, 203–204, 203t
  • Market crashes, 11
  • Market declines, sector rankings in, 29, 29t
  • Market peaks, 79–83, 82t–83t, 111
    • of 1980, 81
    • of 2000, 107
    • and bear markets, 80
    • behaviors of, 220
    • Federal Reserve in, 190, 220
  • Market rally (2020), 193–214
    • down days in, 207–208
    • economic surprises in, 208–209
    • investment strategies in, 203–205
    • investor avoidance of, 13
    • investor sentiment in, 211–212
    • monetary policy in, 205–206
    • money market fund assets in, 196–201
    • and pace of markets, 206–207
    • returns in, 204
    • sector indexes in, 201–203, 202t
    • unemployment in, 209–210, 210F
    • as unloved rebound, 194–195
  • Market value/price (V/P) ratio, 110, 110t, 211, 214
  • Marks, Howard, 57
  • Materials sector, 202t
  • Maturity, stock, 149
  • Meisler, Helene, 59
  • Merrill Lynch, 35
  • Meyer, Michelle, 49
  • MIT, 115
  • MLB, 189
  • Momentum-based funds, 58, 157
  • Momentum-driven buy thresholds, 34
  • Monetarist school of economics, 68
  • Monetary policy, 73–87
    • in 2020 market rally, 205–206
    • of Europe and China, 78–79
    • of Federal Reserve, 59, 63, 97
    • and inflation, 64
    • in market peaks, 79–83, 190
    • and money supply, 74–77, 84–85
    • neutral, 84
  • Monetary stimulus, 51, 197
  • Money, velocity of, 68, 69f
  • Money Life (podcast), 5
  • Money market funds, 196–201, 196f
  • Money supply. See also M1
    • and economic growth, 84–86
    • of Europe and China, 78, 78f
    • growth in, 205, 206f
    • monetary policy and, 74–77, 84–85
  • Moody's AAA bond index, 70, 70f, 71, 188–189
  • Mortgage-backed securities, 76
  • Mutual funds:
    • investment errors with, 218, 218t, 219
    • in multiyear bull market, 143
    • performance of indexes vs., 172
    • underperformance of, 152–153
  • Mutual insurance companies, 104
  • N
  • NASDAQ Index, 4, 177
  • Nationwide Insurance, 49
  • Natural resources, 14
  • NBA, 189
  • NBT, 132, 132t
  • NCAA, 189
  • Negative interest rates, 24, 60
  • “Negative rate” bonds, 60
  • Nesto, Matt, 1–3
  • Netflix, 131
  • Net flows, for equity mutual funds, 8–9, 9f
  • News, 39–49
    • bad, 32, 42, 110, 194
    • expectations based on, 45–46
    • good, 220
    • impact of, on price/value, 31
    • industry-specific, 43–45
    • volatility events triggered by, 105
  • New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), 148, 149, 177
  • New York University, 152
  • NHL, 189
  • Non-financial corporations, 133
  • North American energy, 24
  • O
  • Oaktree Capital Group LLC, 57
  • Ohio State University, 184
  • Oil prices, 1, 64, 81, 188
  • Omega Advisors Inc., 57
  • OPEC+, 188
  • Open market operations, by Federal Reserve, 85, 138
  • Open-market stock buybacks, 130
  • Operational leverage, 131, 132t
  • Opportunity strategy, 163, 170, 204
  • “Overbought” markets, 15
  • Over-diversification, of stocks, 153
  • Overpriced stock markets, 118–123
  • P
  • Pangolins, 187
  • Passive (index) investing, 34, 143, 150, 153–155, 158, 173
  • Pauly, David, 127
  • Pearl Harbor, attack on, 217
  • Pension plans, 12, 13
  • Petajisto, Atti, 148, 151–152
  • PGA, 189
  • Phillips, A. W. H., 95
  • Phillips Curve, 95–98
  • “Pilot-induced oscillation,” 53
  • Policyholders, mutual company, 104
  • Polk, Christopher, 152
  • Portfolios, bond, 76
  • Portfolio volatility, 14, 114
  • Price(s). See also Stock prices
  • Price-to-book value, 122
  • Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio:
  • Professional money managers, 24
  • Profitability ratios, 172
  • Profitability strategy, 163, 172, 203t, 204
  • Profits and profit margins, 32, 44, 163
  • Prospectus, defined, 165
  • Protectionism, 97
  • Public funds, 12–14, 12f, 20, 152
  • Public Funds Data (website), 12
  • Q
  • Quantitative Easing Round 2 (QE2), 48, 77
  • Quantitative strategy, 164, 203t
  • Quarter-over-quarter (Q-O-Q) GDP growth, 47–50, 48f, 50f
  • Quintile trailing, 152
  • R
  • Rates of return:
    • for 2009-2020, 27–28, 27t
    • CPI change and, 124, 124t
    • negative, for S&P 500 Index, 80
    • sector, 111, 111t
  • Real estate bonds, 76
  • Real estate loans, 76
  • Real estate sector, 202, 202t
  • Reality, expectations vs., 63
  • Recessions, 24, 65–67, 67t, 79, 91, 138–140, 200f
  • Reserve Requirement, 86
  • Resources:
    • allocation of, 130, 154–155
    • mobility of, 97
  • Returns. See also Rates of return
    • 2009-2019 cumulative, 20f
    • in 2020 market rally, 204
    • annual, 25
    • average monthly, 167, 167t, 169, 169t
    • CPI and domestic equities, 19, 20f
    • distribution of stock, 149
    • forecasting, 101–102
    • maximizing, in bull markets, 171
    • and P/E ratios, 118–122, 119t, 120f, 121t
    • in recessions, 91
    • risk-adjusted, 21
    • significance of, 20, 21
  • Revenue, 117, 131–133
  • Reynolds, Brian, 126
  • Risk, stock price and, 122
  • Risk-adjusted alpha, 152
  • Risk-adjusted returns, 21
  • Risk-free rate of interest, 149
  • Risk Managed Balanced fund, 103
  • “Risk on, risk off,” 34
  • Risk strategy, 164, 169, 203, 203t, 204
  • Risk tolerance, 22
  • Ritholtz, Barry, 13–14
  • Robertson, Julian, 57
  • R-square (correlation), 19, 119It, 152
  • Russia, oil production in, 188
  • S
  • Samuelson, Paul, 115
  • Sanders, Bernie, 130
  • Sapra, Steven, 148
  • Saudi Arabia, oil production in, 188
  • Sector themes, 43
  • Securities Act of 1933, 155–156
  • Securities and Exchange Commission, 130
  • Semi-strong form, of efficient markets, 171
  • September 11, 2001 terrorist attack, 188
  • Setbacks, theme reversals and, 111–112
  • Shareholders, mutual company, 104
  • Sharpe, William, 28
  • Shorter-than-normal industries, 43
  • Short interest, 177–179, 178f
  • Short sellers, 208
  • Short-term bonds, 44
  • Short-term debt, 34
  • Short-term interest rates, 57, 138
  • Short-term market timing, 34–35
  • Short-term theme reversals, 108, 109
  • Short-term troughs, 111
  • Short-term yields, 44
  • Silli, Bernard, 152
  • Slope, linear regression equation, 182, 183f
  • Small-cap stocks, 145, 149, 153, 204
  • SmartGrowth Funds, 89
  • Social considerations strategy, 164, 170, 174, 203
  • S&P 500 BuyWrite Index, 114
  • S&P 500 Index, 203t
    • debt/equity ratio, 135, 135f, 136
    • debt/total assets ratio, 134, 134f
    • distribution of returns, 25–26, 26f
    • in economic recoveries, 35
    • and economic surprises, 208, 209f
    • and employment, 41, 41f, 92–94, 93t
    • EPS, 91, 92t
    • equity fund net flows and, 7–9, 8f
    • in inversions, 140
    • in market crashes, 36f
    • in multiyear bull markets, 23, 23f, 33
    • negative rates of return for, 80
    • and pace of market, 207
    • P/E ratios for, 144–145, 146f, 198–199
    • in recessions, 91, 91t
    • returns on active strategies vs., 204
    • returns on non stock assets vs., 19, 20f
    • returns on public funds vs., 13–14, 20
    • and S&P 1500 Index, 30, 143
    • volatility and return on, 113–114, 113f
    • in volatility events, 105–109, 106f–109f
    • yields on 10-year T-bills vs., 17–19, 18f
  • S&P 1500 Biotechnology Index, 133
  • S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary Index, 27
  • S&P 1500 Financials Index, 27
  • S&P 1500 Index:
    • for 2008-2020, 190, 191, 191f
    • in 2009-2020 bull market, 215, 216f
    • in 2020 bull market, 188–189, 207
    • after COVID vaccine announcement, 195
    • average beta vs., 27t
    • bull/bear ratio and, 194, 195
    • earnings per share for, 30
    • in European debt crises, 28
    • and fair value, 31–32, 32f
    • for financial sector, 157–158
    • history of, 33
    • ICON database vs., 28
    • investor expectations and returns on, 60
    • in market rally, 1–4, 3f, 213
    • pre-crash peak for, 179, 193, 194, 194f
    • sector returns and, 26–27, 202t
    • short interest/float and, 178, 178f
    • and S&P 500 Index, 143
  • S&P 1500 Industrials Index, 27, 202
  • S&P 1500 Information Technology Index, 27, 157
  • S&P Mid-Cap 400, 30
  • S&P Regional Bank Index, 44, 45
  • S&P Small-Cap 600 Index, 30, 143, 144, 144f, 145
  • Squawk on the Street (TV show), 1–3
  • Stagflation, 97
  • Standard & Poor's (S&P), 127. See also specific S&P indexes
  • “Stay at home” stocks, 201
  • Stimulus, monetary, 51
  • “Stock Buybacks Are for Dummies Except Right Now” (Pauly), 127
  • Stock market, 101–104
    • adaptations to behavior of, 113, 114
    • commentary on, 118–123
    • experiencing themes, 128
    • identifying peaks in, 80–83
    • predicting behavior of, 24
    • in recessions, 91
    • resource allocation and, 155
    • in volatility events, 112–113
  • Stock maturity, 149
  • Stock pickers, 148–152. see also active management
  • Stock prices, 148
    • earnings per share and, 198–199, 200f
    • fair value vs., 212
    • impact of news on, 39–49
    • investor beliefs about drivers of, 117
    • and price of VIX options, 149
    • unemployment and, 92
    • variables for, 122
  • Stock valuation:
    • in 2020 market rally, 197–201, 211–212, 211f
    • in bull markets, 24
    • earnings and, 30
    • at market peaks, 190, 220
    • stock prices vs., 31–32
  • Strong form, of efficient markets, 171
  • Style drift, 151, 166
  • Style grid, 165, 166
  • Subprime mortgages, 75
  • Subsidies, 97
  • Supply, and demand, 62
  • Sustainable growth, 162
  • Swenson, David, 13
  • Swoosh, 213
  • T
  • Tapestry, 4
  • Tariffs, 97
  • Tech bubble, 8, 19, 157, 218
  • Technical analysis, 15, 163
  • Technology companies, 132–133
  • Telecommunication services, 27, 111, 112
  • 10-year Treasury bills, 58, 59, 139, 139t–140t
  • 10-year Treasury bonds, 139
  • 10-year Treasury notes, 45, 45t, 57–59
  • Tepper, David, 198
  • Tesla, 16
  • Theme reversals, 108–109, 111, 111t, 112, 128
  • 13-week Treasury bills, 45, 45t, 57
  • Three-legged theory, 182
  • Tiger Management LLC, 57
  • Tobacco companies, 131
  • “Too big to fail” businesses, 76
  • Total assets, 134, 134f
  • Treasury bills (T-bills):
    • 13-week, 45, 45t, 57
    • 2-year, 139
    • 10-year, 58, 59, 139, 139t–140t
    • average yield of, 84
    • Federal Reserve buying/selling of, 74, 85
    • inflation rate and return on, 84
    • yield curve of, 44
  • Treasury bonds, 24, 44, 139
  • Treasury notes:
  • Trump, Donald, and administration, 189
  • Tseng, Nin-Hai, 57
  • 2-year Treasury bills, 139
  • 2-year Treasury bonds, 139
  • 2-year Treasury notes, 45, 45t
  • U
  • Uber, 131
  • Uncertainty, 216–217
  • Unemployment, 89–99
    • in 1982 and 2008, 90f, 93f
    • in 2009 market crash, 1
    • in 2020 market rally, 197, 209–210, 210f, 213
    • in bull markets, 22
    • concern about, 89
    • and consumer spending, 94, 94f, 95
    • in Great Depression, 58
    • inflation and, 24, 56
    • investing decisions based on, 90–93
    • Phillips Curve and, 95–98
    • promoting low, 130
    • resource allocation and, 154
    • and stock prices, 92
  • US Treasury Department, 73
  • University of Maryland, 151
  • Unloved bull markets. See also Bull market (03/2009 to 02/2020)
    • anecdotal examples of, 15–16
    • investor sentiment and, 4
    • strategies contributing to, 174
  • “Up-market” performance, 111, 111t
  • Utilities sector, 27, 111, 202t
  • W
  • Wages, 95
  • “Wall of worry,” 4
  • Wall Street Journal, 9, 39, 43, 48–49, 56, 77, 85, 89
  • Warren, Elizabeth, 130
  • Weak form, of efficient markets, 171
  • Wealth gaps, 69
  • Weigand, Robert, 148
  • Weisenthal, Joe, 59
  • Wermers, Russ, 151
  • “Wet markets,” 187
  • Withermuth, Jay, 133
  • Wolfers, Justin, 49
  • “Work from home” stocks, 201
  • Work from home theme, 16
  • World War II, 85
  • Wuhan, China, 187
  • Y
  • Yale University, 13, 14, 151
  • Year-over-year (Y-O-Y) growth:
  • Yellen, Janet, 133
  • Yields:
    • bond, 62, 188–189
    • long-term, 44
    • short-term, 44
    • stock, 17–19, 18f
  • Yield curves:
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