062 | Horizon Scanning |
A set of research approaches for seeking signs of potential change to come in one’s operating environment
- The degree of formality and directedness of a scanning activity depends on how specific the knowledge needs of the situation are.
- Scanning is also regarded by many as a fundamental ongoing practice: as events unfold and contexts morph from one day (or year) to the next, the possible, probable, and preferable futures that need to be considered shift too.
- Scanning attention is often guided using a framework like the widely used mnemonic STEEP: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political. These lenses prompt the researcher to attend to different facets of change; for when seeking to understand the potential future states of dynamic, complex systems, causes and effects do not stay neatly in disciplinary lanes.
- The basic idea of scanning is to spot and address potential risks and opportunities as early as possible.
Contributed by Stuart Candy
See alsoBackcasting • Design Fiction • Transition Design
Scanning requires us to venture from the mainstream and the realm of trends, which is all “known” information, to the periphery to find the “new,” the emerging signals of change that are the precursor to trends.
Horizon Scanning graph by Maree Conway, Thinking Futures, adapted from Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz.
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