Consider Cycle Time to Create More Accurate Estimates

I recommend that teams in transition to agile approaches measure their cycle time as described in ​Cycle Time Shows How Long Work Takes​. Here’s why:

• Cycle time helps a team see how large its stories really are.

• Cycle time provides a team a rough rule of thumb for quickly estimating a large number of stories.

• Cycle time helps people see whether they tend to be optimistic or pessimistic estimators.

Here’s how you use cycle time for estimation:

1. Decide on a time period for your measurement. I recommend you consider two to four weeks for your initial measurement period. That time might provide you enough information for your average cycle time.
2. As the team completes stories in this period, count the number of stories and measure how long each story took. You will have something like the following table.

The average cycle time helps you know the average duration of a story. Some of the stories will take longer and some will take less time. You can count the stories, multiply by the average cycle time, and have a reasonable estimate.

What if you see a cycle-time variance as shown in the table?

The average cycle time is 3.6 days, but the maximum is 8 days. Can you use cycle time for estimation? You can, but your confidence will be lower if you do.