Key Equations

  1. (3-1) EMV(alternative i)=XiP(Xi)

    An equation that computes expected monetary value.

  2. (3-2) EVwPI=Σ(Best payoff in state of nature i)× (Probability of state of nature i)

    An equation that computes the expected value with perfect information.

  3. (3-3) EVPI=EVwPIBest EMV

    An equation that computes the expected value of perfect information.

  4. (3-4) EVSI=(EV with SI+cost)(EV without SI)

    An equation that computes the expected value (EV) of sample information (SI).

  5. (3-5) Efficiency of sample information=EVSIEVPI100%

    An equation that compares sample information to perfect information.

  6. (3-6) P(A|B)=P(B|A)P(A)P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|A)P(A)

    Bayes’ Theorem—the conditional probability of event A given that event B has occurred.

  7. (3-7) Utility of other outcome=(p)(1)+(1p)(0)=p

    An equation that determines the utility of an intermediate outcome.

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