Create Approximate Estimates for Management
Many managers are accustomed to thinking about when “all” the features will be done. That’s because they could not see the value from the project before the end. In agile projects, we can deliver value before the end of the project. As a project leader, consider how you can help your management see value before the end of the project. And ask what kind of an estimate your managers need.
If your managers want to know when it will “all” be done, check to see if they mean when they can start to release value to the customers. They might want to know when they can capitalize the software. They might want to know when they can recognize revenue from sales or support. Show them the roadmap and explain how often the product owner will update the roadmap and when the team will know better.
If they still want to know when it will “all” be done, use the information you have to create an estimate with a percent confidence. (See Predicting the Unpredictable [Rot15] for more estimation options.)
Here’s how to estimate “all” the features:
- Ask the team to take all the details they know about the features in the roadmap.
- Use whatever relative sizing approach you prefer.
- Walk through the roadmap, estimating as you proceed. In addition, count the larger features. The larger the features, the more uncertainty you have in your estimate.
- Add up your relative estimate (either points or cycle time). Add up the large features so you understand your confidence level.
Here’s how one team did this. It had three feature sets for which it had good detail on the stories. The team had two more feature sets for which it had almost no detail on the stories. Management wanted the team’s best estimate in two days. The table shows how it estimated.
Feature Set | # Stories | Relative Estimate for Stories | Total Story Estimate | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 16 | 2 or 3 for each story | 40 | High |
2 | 8 | 1 | 8 | High |
3 | 12 | 2 or 3 for each story | 30 | High |
4 | 15 | 5 or 8? | 120 | Medium |
5 | 12 | 13? | 156 | Low |
Totals: |
|
|
|
|
5 Feature Sets | 63 Stories | Unclear | 354 points | Medium |
This team had about a day for a one-point story, so it thought it might be 354 team-days. The team had an uncertainty of “Medium.” Here’s how it framed that to its managers:
“If we do ‘all’ of this work and nothing horrible happens, we think it will take us roughly 70 weeks and we only have about 50% confidence in that number. However, we can deliver interim value starting in the next two weeks. We will be able to update the estimate and the uncertainty at least as often as every couple of weeks. When would you like to know more?”
This team could have used cycle time instead of story points. See Consider Cycle Time to Create More Accurate Estimates.
Instead of using relative estimation, consider counting stories.