Package delivery, 320

Parallel activity, 399, 400

Parameters, 4, 7, 76

• problem, 82

Parametric programming, 264. See also Sensitivity analysis

Parents and material structure tree, 215

Partitioning matrix of transition probabilities, 511

Payoff/cost table, 205

Payoff table, 64, 65, 75–77

p-chart, 537–539

• and Excel QM, 539, 547

People, assigning projects to, 325–327

Percent of work completed, 404

Perfect information, 70–71, 74, 78, 82

PERT. See Program evaluation and review technique (PERT); Program evaluation and review technique/critical path method (PERT/CPM)

PERT/cost, 400–404

PERT networks, 388

Pessimistic criterion, 66–67

Pessimistic time, 391

Physical models, 4, 461

Pilot plants, 4

Pittsburgh Pirates, 12

Planning phase, 186

Plutonium, 93

Poisson arrivals, 431, 434–439, 439–441

Poisson distribution, 35, 48–50, 430, 431, 439, 443

• c-charts, 540

• and Excel 2016, 50

• formula for, 48–49

Polls, queuing, 442

POM-QM for Windows, 9–10

Portfolio selection, 300–303

Port of Baltimore exponential smoothing, 157–158

Port of New Orleans simulation, 476–478

• Excel for, 478

Posterior probabilities, 27–28, 29, 78, 83–85. See also Conditional probabilities and decision trees

Postoptimality analysis, 6, 264. See also Sensitivity analysis

Predecessor activity, 399, 400

Predicting future market shares, 505

Predictive analytics, 2

Predictor variable, 111

Preparedness, 5

Prescriptive analytics, 2

Presently known probabilities, 501

Present value, 364

Preventive maintenance simulation, 483

Prior probabilities, 27, 28, 29, 83, 84, 85

Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces example, 8–9, 10–12

Pritsker Corp., 24

Probabilistic models, 9

Probabilities, 21–23

• assessments of curling champions, 39

• Bayes’ Theorem and, 27–29, 83–85

• binomial distribution, 35–38

• classical or logical method, 22–23

• collectively exhaustive events and, 23–24

• conditional, 25, 26, 78, 84–85

• decision trees, 77–82

• Empirical rule and, 44, 45

• exponential distribution, 46–48

• F distribution, 35, 44–46

• flight safety and, 30

• independent events, 26–27

• intersections of events, 25–27

• joint, 25, 27–28, 29, 84, 85

• known/unknown in decision making, 65

• marginal, 28

• mathematics of, 22

• mutually exclusive events and, 23–24

• normal distribution, 32, 38–44

• objective, 22

• Poisson distribution, 35, 48–50, 434

• posterior, 27–28, 29, 78, 83–85

• prior, 27, 28, 29, 83–85

• random variables, 30–31, 40

• relative frequency approach, 24

• relative frequency of demand, 22

• revision, 27–30, 83–85

• rules of, 22

• simple, 22

• sports and, 39

• statistically dependent events, 26, 27–28

• statistically independent events, 26

• subjective, 22

• table of normal curve areas, 39, 40

• types of, 22–23

• unions, 25

• Venn diagrams and, 23–24

Probability analysis and flight safety, 30

Probability density function, 35, 38

Probability distributions, 14, 21, 31, 430, 472–473

• binomial distribution, 35–38

• central tendency, 32

• continuous random variables, 34–35

• discrete random variable, 32–34

• expected value, 32–33

• Kendall notation, 431–432

• mean, 32–33

• Monte Carlo simulation, 464–465

• normal distribution, 39–44

• variance, 33–34

Probability function, 35, 46

Problems, 12–15

• and payoff tables, 75–77

• quantitative analysis, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12–15

• in using survey results, 85

Problem solving, 36–38

Process control system, 532

Processes, 531–537

• assignable variations, 531, 532

• average, 536

• natural variations, 531–532

• of simulation, 462

• states, 501

• variability, 531–532, 536

Processes dispersion, 536

Process Logistics Advanced Technical Optimization (PLATO) project, 15

Procomp reorder point for chips, 195–196

Production costs, 323

Production mix, 293–295

Production/operations management (POM), 2, 9

Production process annual setup cost, 197

Production run model, 196–199

Production scheduling, 295–299

Product mix problem, 239, 265

Product quality, 529

Profit contribution, 239

Profit models, 6, 9

Program evaluation and review technique (PERT), 387–388, 389–392

Program evaluation and review technique/critical path method (PERT/CPM)

• activity time estimates, 391–392

• beta probability distribution, 391

• critical path, 392–395

• defining project and activities, 388–389

• drawing network, 390

• expected activity time, 392

• General Foundry example, 389, 391

• history of, 388

• hospital customer service example, 390

• immediate predecessor, 389

• information provided by, 398

• most likely time, 391

• networks, 388, 390, 391

• optimistic time, 391

• pessimistic time, 391

• probability of project completion, 395–398

• project management, 399–400

• projects in smaller activities or tasks, 389

• questions answered by, 389

• sensitivity analysis, 399–400

• six stpng of, 388

• variance of activity completion time, 392

Programming, 237

Project costs

• monitoring and controlling, 403–404

• planning and scheduling, 400–403

Project crashing, 405–409

• with linear programming, 407–409

Project Insight, 395

Project management, 410

• five phases, 405

• in officeless, cloud-based work environment, 395

• QM for Windows, 424–426

• sensitivity analysis, 399–400

• and small companies, 405

• and water project in California, 401

Project Phoenix, 269

Projects, 387–389

• assigning people, 325–327

• defining, 388–389

• identifying activities, 387

• probability of completion, 395–398

• standard deviation, 397

• weekly budget, 400–401

Project standard deviation, 397

Project variance, computing, 396

ProModel, 485

Proof 5, 485

Proportionality, 238, 239

Purchase cost, 187, 189, 193–194, 200

Purchase orders, 188

Pure integer programming problems, 358