Machine learning at a glance

The physical design process (involving humans, decisions, constraints, and the most potent of all: unpredictability) has parallels with the machine learning systems we are building. The decision boundary of a classifier, data constraints, and the uses of randomness to initialize or introduce diversity in models are just three connections we can make. The deeper question is how far can we take this analogy. If we are trying to build artificial intelligence, the question is, "Are we trying to replicate the process of human intelligence, or simply imitate its consequences, that is, make a reasonable decision?" This of course is ripe for vigorous philosophical discussion and, though interesting, is largely irrelevant to the present discussion. The important point, however, is that much can be learned from observing natural systems, such as the brain, and attempting to mimic their actions.

Real human decision making occurs in a wider context of complex brain action, and in the setting of a design process, the decisions we make are often group decisions. The analogy to an artificial neural net ensemble is irresistible. Like with an ensemble of learning candidates with mostly weak learners, the decisions made, over the lifespan of a project, will end up with a result far greater than any individual contribution. Importantly, an incorrect decision, analogous say to a poor split in a decision tree, is not wasted time since part of the role of weak learners is to rule out incorrect possibilities. In a complex machine learning project, it can be frustrating to realize that much of the work done does not directly lead to a successful result. The initial focus should be on providing convincing arguments that a positive result is possible.

The analogy between machine learning systems and the design process itself is, of course, over simplistic. There are many things in team dynamics that are not represented by a machine learning ensemble. For example, human decision making occurs in the rather illusive context of emotion, intuition, and a lifetime of experience. Also, team dynamics are often shaped by personnel ambition, subtle prejudices, and by relationships between team members. Importantly, managing a team must be integrated into the design process.

A machine learning project of any scale will require collaboration. The space is simply too large for any one person to be fully cognizant of all the different interrelated elements. Even the simple demonstration tasks outlined in this book would not be possible if it were not for the effort of many people developing the theory, writing the base algorithms, and collecting and organizing data.

Successfully orchestrating a major project within time and resource constraints requires significant skill, and these are not necessarily the skills of a software engineer or a data scientist. Obviously, we must define what success, in any given context, means. A theoretical research project either disproving or proving a particular theory with a degree of certainty, or a small degree of uncertainty, is considered a success. Understanding the constraints may give us realistic expectations, in other words, an achievable metric of success.

One of the most common and persistent constraints is that of insufficient, or inaccurate, data. The data collection methodology is such an important aspect, yet in many projects it is overlooked. The data collection process is interactive. It is impossible to interrogate any dynamic system without changing that system. Also, some components of a system are simply easier to observe than others, and therefore, may become inaccurate representations of wider unobserved, or unobservable, components. In many cases, what we know about a complex system is dwarfed by what we do not know. This uncertainty is embedded in the stochastic nature of physical reality, and it is the reason that we must resort to probabilities in any predictive task. Deciding what level of probability is acceptable for a given action, say to treat a potential patient based on the estimated probability of a disease, depends on the consequences of treating the disease or not, and this usually relies on humans, either the doctor or the patient, to make the final decision. There are many issues outside the domain that may influence such a decision.

Human problem solving, although sharing many similarities, is the fundamental difference from machine problem solving. It is dependent on so many things, not least of which is the emotional and physical state, that is, the chemical and electrical bath a nervous system is enveloped in. Human thought is not a deterministic process, and this is actually a good thing because it enables us to solve problems in novel ways. Creative problem solving involves the ability to link disparate ideas or concepts. Often, the inspiration for this comes from an entirely irrelevant event, the proverbial Newton's apple. The ability of the human brain to knit these often random events of every day experience into some sort of coherent, meaningful structure is the illusive ability we aspire to build into our machines.

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