cover

Table of Contents

Series Page

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

Preface to the Second Edition

Preface to the First Edition

Chapter 1: Financial Time Series and Their Characteristics

1.1 Asset Returns

1.2 Distributional Properties of Returns

1.3 Processes Considered

Appendix: R Packages

Chapter 2: Linear Time Series Analysis and Its Applications

2.1 Stationarity

2.2 Correlation and Autocorrelation Function

2.3 White Noise and Linear Time Series

2.4 Simple AR Models

2.5 Simple MA Models

2.6 Simple ARMA Models

2.7 Unit-Root Nonstationarity

2.8 Seasonal Models

2.9 Regression Models with Time Series Errors

2.10 Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation

2.11 Long-Memory Models

Appendix: Some SCA Commands

Chapter 3: Conditional Heteroscedastic Models

3.1 Characteristics of Volatility

3.2 Structure of a Model

3.3 Model Building

3.4 The ARCH Model

3.5 The GARCH Model

3.6 The Integrated GARCH Model

3.7 The GARCH-M Model

3.8 The Exponential GARCH Model

3.9 The Threshold GARCH Model

3.10 The CHARMA Model

3.11 Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models

3.12 Stochastic Volatility Model

3.13 Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility Model

3.14 Application

3.15 Alternative Approaches

3.16 Kurtosis of GARCH Models

Appendix: Some RATS Programs for Estimating Volatility Models

Chapter 4: Nonlinear Models and Their Applications

4.1 Nonlinear Models

4.2 Nonlinearity Tests

4.3 Modeling

4.4 Forecasting

4.5 Application

Appendix A: Some RATS Programs for Nonlinear Volatility Models

Appendix B: R and S-Plus Commands for Neural Network

Chapter 5: High-Frequency Data Analysis and Market Microstructure

5.1 Nonsynchronous Trading

5.2 Bid–Ask Spread

5.3 Empirical Characteristics of Transactions Data

5.4 Models for Price Changes

5.5 Duration Models

5.6 Nonlinear Duration Models

5.7 Bivariate Models for Price Change and Duration

5.8 Application

Appendix A: Review of Some Probability Distributions

Appendix B: Hazard Function

Appendix C: Some RATS Programs for Duration Models

Chapter 6: Continuous-Time Models and Their Applications

6.1 Options

6.2 Some Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes

6.3 Ito's Lemma

6.4 Distributions of Stock Prices and Log Returns

6.5 Derivation of Black–Scholes Differential Equation

6.6 Black–Scholes Pricing Formulas

6.7 Extension of Ito's Lemma

6.8 Stochastic Integral

6.9 Jump Diffusion Models

6.10 Estimation of Continuous-Time Models

Appendix A: Integration of Black–Scholes Formula

Appendix B: Approximation to Standard Normal Probability

Chapter 7: Extreme Values, Quantiles, and Value at Risk

7.1 Value at Risk

7.2 RiskMetrics

7.3 Econometric Approach to VaR Calculation

7.4 Quantile Estimation

7.5 Extreme Value Theory

7.6 Extreme Value Approach to VaR

7.7 New Approach Based on the Extreme Value Theory

7.8 The Extremal Index

Chapter 8: Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Its Applications

8.1 Weak Stationarity and Cross-Correlation Matrices

8.2 Vector Autoregressive Models

8.3 Vector Moving-Average Models

8.4 Vector ARMA Models

8.5 Unit-Root Nonstationarity and Cointegration

8.6 Cointegrated VAR Models

8.7 Threshold Cointegration and Arbitrage

8.8 Pairs Trading

Appendix A: Review of Vectors and Matrices

Appendix B: Multivariate Normal Distributions

Appendix C: Some SCA Commands

Chapter 9: Principal Component Analysis and Factor Models

9.1 A Factor Model

9.2 Macroeconometric Factor Models

9.3 Fundamental Factor Models

9.4 Principal Component Analysis

9.5 Statistical Factor Analysis

9.6 Asymptotic Principal Component Analysis

Chapter 10: Multivariate Volatility Models and Their Applications

10.1 Exponentially Weighted Estimate

10.2 Some Multivariate GARCH Models

10.3 Reparameterization

10.4 GARCH Models for Bivariate Returns

10.5 Higher Dimensional Volatility Models

10.6 Factor–Volatility Models

10.7 Application

10.8 Multivariate t Distribution

10.9 Appendix: Some Remarks on Estimation

Chapter 11: State-Space Models and Kalman Filter

11.1 Local Trend Model

11.2 Linear State-Space Models

11.3 Model Transformation

11.4 Kalman Filter and Smoothing

11.5 Missing Values

11.6 Forecasting

11.7 Application

Chapter 12: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Applications

12.1 Markov Chain Simulation

12.2 Gibbs Sampling

12.3 Bayesian Inference

12.4 Alternative Algorithms

12.5 Linear Regression with Time Series Errors

12.6 Missing Values and Outliers

12.7 Stochastic Volatility Models

12.8 New Approach to SV Estimation

12.9 Markov Switching Models

12.10 Forecasting

12.11 Other Applications

Index

both

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