Most strategies are predicated on a set of assumptions that will determine whether or not the strategy can succeed, particularly when operating in a highly uncertain environment. It will often be difficult or impossible to prove that the delivery of a new capability will meet a business need, even in cases where it appears reasonable to assume that the new capability will have the desired effect.

It is important to be clear and have well-understood assumptions about what needs to be true in order for the desired future state to be successfully implemented or achieved. When assumptions are well defined, it enables the team to test any change strategies to validate assumptions or discover whether any assumptions are in fact incorrect. If critical assumptions are proven incorrect in the early stages of an initiative, it assists the team in redirecting or potentially terminating the initiative. 

Let's consider a real-world scenario of an assumption made in a banking environment. The assumption made was that if a loan application system was built in-house, rather than purchasing an existing solution off the shelf, it would be of more value to the bank because it would address the bank's specific business needs. 

However, once the solution has been built and tested, it is found that there are many problems that could not easily be solved in-house due to a lack of skills and know-how.

Unfortunately, in this scenario, the assumption that it would be more beneficial to develop the software solution in-house instead of buying a vendor's off-the-shelf solution was incorrect and not analyzed and validated in the early stages of the initiative. This invalid assumption has cost the bank a large amount of unplanned time and resource costs. 

The last element to consider when the business analyst works to define the future state is assessing the potential value of the future state.